Comparing Goalies' Save Percentage Relative to Average Save Percentage

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 5:25 PM EST

Pierre-Marc Bouchard shows an absolute lack of respect for Dan Ellis

Editor's Note: The best part of hockey is when what we see with our eyes matches up with what we see in a spreadsheet. BCapp takes a look at the save percentage of goalies in each post-lockout season that played a significant number of games to see how far it varies from an average of the qualifying goalies. There are some interesting conclusions and observations at the end of the post.

Many try to come on to this site and say some sort of variation of:

I don't care about stats, they're just stupid numbers. Watch the damn game.

While these people are wholeheartedly wrong and are always told accordingly I believe it brings up one important thing about stats: Stats should never be judged in a vacuum. An area where this is of particular interest to sports is attempting to compare players who played in different seasons/eras. In this post I have looked at goalies since the lock out and compared their save percentages to league-wide average save percentages for that year.

Before I begin a few quick words about my methodology: I took all of the goaltenders who played 30% or more of the games in a season (32 GP for 2005-2010 and 24 GP for this year)*. I added up their total saves and divided by their total shots against for the league wide average. This is key to note because I did not use the league-wide save percentage of every goalie, just these specific ones.

*For this year I included James Reimer and Jonas Gustavvson for interests sake, even though they did not meet the GP requirement.

**Friendly piece of advice: My graphs are wide, so to see it make sure your screen view is set to wide. You can choose that near the top right of the screen.

Data after the jump....

2005-2006 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Cristobal Huet	MTL	36	1085	77	1008	0.9290	0.9045	0.0245	24.5114
2	Dominik Hasek	OTT	43	1202	90	1112	0.9251	0.9045	0.0206	20.6039
3	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	74	1951	151	1800	0.9226	0.9045	0.0181	18.0829
4	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	53	1485	116	1369	0.9219	0.9045	0.0174	17.3647
5	Tomas Vokoun	NSH	61	1984	160	1824	0.9194	0.9045	0.0148	14.8340
6	Manny Fernandez	MIN	58	1612	130	1482	0.9194	0.9045	0.0148	14.8340
7	Tim Thomas	BOS	38	1213	101	1112	0.9167	0.9045	0.0122	12.2145
8	Manny Legace	DET	51	1244	106	1138	0.9148	0.9045	0.0103	10.2702
9	Roberto Luongo	FLA	75	2488	213	2275	0.9144	0.9045	0.0099	9.8682
10	Ryan Miller	BUF	48	1440	124	1316	0.9139	0.9045	0.0094	9.3680
11	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	ANA	60	1692	150	1542	0.9113	0.9045	0.0068	6.8267
12	Martin Brodeur	NJD	73	2105	187	1918	0.9112	0.9045	0.0066	6.6430
13	Pascal Leclaire	CBJ	33	1084	97	987	0.9105	0.9045	0.0060	5.9958
14	Curtis Sanford	STL	34	885	81	804	0.9085	0.9045	0.0040	3.9537
15	Dwayne Roloson	MIN, EDM	43	1256	115	1141	0.9084	0.9045	0.0039	3.9186
16	Martin Gerber	CAR	60	1719	162	1557	0.9058	0.9045	0.0012	1.2383
17	Kari Lehtonen	ATL	38	1123	106	1017	0.9056	0.9045	0.0011	1.0891
18	Martin Biron	BUF	35	980	93	887	0.9051	0.9045	0.0006	0.5812
19	Alex Auld	VAN	67	1938	189	1749	0.9025	0.9045	-0.0020	-2.0441
20	Ray Emery	OTT	39	1045	102	943	0.9024	0.9045	-0.0021	-2.1285
21	Curtis Joseph	PHX	60	1690	166	1524	0.9018	0.9045	-0.0027	-2.7457
22	Vesa Toskala	SJS	37	878	87	791	0.9009	0.9045	-0.0036	-3.6097
23	Peter Budaj	COL	34	864	86	778	0.9005	0.9045	-0.0041	-4.0579
24	Rick DiPietro	NYI	63	1797	180	1617	0.8998	0.9045	-0.0047	-4.6878
25	Marc Denis	CBJ	49	1505	151	1354	0.8997	0.9045	-0.0049	-4.8531
26	David Aebischer	COL, MTL	50	1473	149	1324	0.8988	0.9045	-0.0057	-5.6750
27	Marty Turco	DAL	68	1624	166	1458	0.8978	0.9045	-0.0067	-6.7376
28	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	50	1485	152	1333	0.8976	0.9045	-0.0069	-6.8777
29	Chris Osgood	DET	32	828	85	743	0.8973	0.9045	-0.0072	-7.1779
30	Robert Esche	PHI	40	1099	113	986	0.8972	0.9045	-0.0073	-7.3416
31	Olie Kolzig	WSH	59	1987	206	1781	0.8963	0.9045	-0.0082	-8.1947
32	Sean Burke	TBL	35	764	80	684	0.8953	0.9045	-0.0092	-9.2329
33	Kevin Weekes	NYR	32	867	91	776	0.8950	0.9045	-0.0095	-9.4805
34	Antero Niittymaki	PHI	46	1266	133	1133	0.8949	0.9045	-0.0096	-9.5761
35	Mathieu Garon	LAK	63	1738	185	1553	0.8936	0.9045	-0.0110	-10.9650
36	Ed Belfour	TOR	49	1476	159	1317	0.8923	0.9045	-0.0122	-12.2444
37	John Grahame	TBL	57	1450	161	1289	0.8890	0.9045	-0.0156	-15.5553
38	Nikolai Khabibulin	CHI	50	1379	157	1222	0.8861	0.9045	-0.0184	-18.3715
39	Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	45	1160	133	1027	0.8853	0.9045	-0.0192	-19.1760
40	Jose Theodore	MTL, COL	43	1158	137	1021	0.8817	0.9045	-0.0228	-22.8283
41	Jussi Markkanen	EDM	37	873	105	768	0.8797	0.9045	-0.0248	-24.7958

2006-2007 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	41	1028	73	955	0.9290	0.9090	0.0200	20.0126
2	Chris Mason	NSH	40	1244	93	1151	0.9252	0.9090	0.0163	16.2654
3	Martin Brodeur	NJD	78	2182	171	2011	0.9216	0.9090	0.0127	12.6558
4	Roberto Luongo	VAN	76	2169	171	1998	0.9212	0.9090	0.0122	12.1861
5	Tomas Vokoun	NSH	44	1299	104	1195	0.9199	0.9090	0.0110	10.9627
6	Rick DiPietro	NYI	62	1917	156	1761	0.9186	0.9090	0.0096	9.6471
7	Ray Emery	OTT	58	1691	138	1553	0.9184	0.9090	0.0094	9.4158
8	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	ANA	56	1490	122	1368	0.9181	0.9090	0.0091	9.1451
9	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	74	2190	181	2009	0.9174	0.9090	0.0084	8.3759
10	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	70	1927	160	1767	0.9170	0.9090	0.0080	7.9937
11	Cristobal Huet	MTL	42	1280	107	1173	0.9164	0.9090	0.0074	7.4305
12	Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	50	1227	106	1121	0.9136	0.9090	0.0046	4.6347
13	Dominik Hasek	DET	56	1309	114	1195	0.9129	0.9090	0.0039	3.9349
14	Kari Lehtonen	ATL	68	2075	183	1892	0.9118	0.9090	0.0028	2.8315
15	Manny Fernandez	MIN	44	1158	103	1055	0.9111	0.9090	0.0021	2.0778
16	Ryan Miller	BUF	63	1886	168	1718	0.9109	0.9090	0.0019	1.9469
17	Marty Turco	DAL	67	1564	140	1424	0.9105	0.9090	0.0015	1.5102
18	Olie Kolzig	WSH	54	1771	159	1612	0.9102	0.9090	0.0012	1.2445
19	Dwayne Roloson	EDM	68	1969	180	1789	0.9086	0.9090	-0.0004	-0.3927
20	Vesa Toskala	SJS	38	915	84	831	0.9082	0.9090	-0.0008	-0.7790
21	Manny Legace	STL	45	1177	109	1068	0.9074	0.9090	-0.0016	-1.5841
22	Mathieu Garon	LAK	32	849	79	770	0.9069	0.9090	-0.0020	-2.0264
23	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	67	1954	184	1770	0.9058	0.9090	-0.0031	-3.1415
24	Tim Thomas	BOS	66	1985	189	1796	0.9048	0.9090	-0.0042	-4.1898
25	Peter Budaj	COL	57	1499	143	1356	0.9046	0.9090	-0.0044	-4.3727
26	Fredrik Norrena	CBJ	55	1420	137	1283	0.9035	0.9090	-0.0055	-5.4546
27	Martin Biron	BUF, PHI	35	1042	101	941	0.9031	0.9090	-0.0059	-5.9047
28	Nikolai Khabibulin	CHI	60	1668	163	1505	0.9023	0.9090	-0.0067	-6.6976
29	Ed Belfour	FLA	58	1550	152	1398	0.9019	0.9090	-0.0070	-7.0402
30	David Aebischer	MTL	32	929	93	836	0.8999	0.9090	-0.0091	-9.0834
31	Cam Ward	CAR	60	1625	167	1458	0.8972	0.9090	-0.0117	-11.7450
32	Antero Niittymaki	PHI	52	1567	166	1401	0.8941	0.9090	-0.0149	-14.9106
33	Andrew Raycroft	TOR	72	1931	205	1726	0.8938	0.9090	-0.0151	-15.1383
34	Johan Holmqvist	TBL	48	1134	121	1013	0.8933	0.9090	-0.0157	-15.6777
35	Curtis Joseph	PHX	55	1481	159	1322	0.8926	0.9090	-0.0163	-16.3356
36	Jose Theodore	COL	33	870	95	775	0.8908	0.9090	-0.0182	-18.1711
37	Marc Denis	TBL	44	1068	125	943	0.8830	0.9090	-0.0260	-26.0169

2007-2008 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Dan Ellis	NSH	44	1147	87	1060	0.9241	0.9108	0.0134	13.3578
2	Ty Conklin	PIT	33	1013	78	935	0.9230	0.9108	0.0122	12.2088
3	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	ANA	58	1508	117	1391	0.9224	0.9108	0.0116	11.6216
4	Tim Thomas	BOS	57	1731	136	1595	0.9214	0.9108	0.0106	10.6405
5	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	35	909	72	837	0.9208	0.9108	0.0100	9.9999
6	Cristobal Huet	MTL, WSH	52	1479	118	1361	0.9202	0.9108	0.0094	9.4242
7	Carey Price	MTL	41	1282	103	1179	0.9197	0.9108	0.0089	8.8646
8	Ilya Bryzgalov	ANA, PHX	64	1829	147	1682	0.9196	0.9108	0.0088	8.8360
9	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	58	1629	131	1498	0.9196	0.9108	0.0088	8.7904
10	Martin Brodeur	NJD	77	2089	168	1921	0.9196	0.9108	0.0088	8.7866
11	Pascal Leclaire	CBJ	54	1379	112	1267	0.9188	0.9108	0.0080	7.9895
12	Tomas Vokoun	FLA	69	2213	180	2033	0.9187	0.9108	0.0079	7.8703
13	Martin Biron	PHI	62	1865	153	1712	0.9180	0.9108	0.0072	7.1703
14	Roberto Luongo	VAN	73	2029	168	1861	0.9172	0.9108	0.0064	6.4084
15	Kari Lehtonen	ATL	48	1560	131	1429	0.9160	0.9108	0.0052	5.2335
16	Chris Osgood	DET	43	976	84	892	0.9139	0.9108	0.0031	3.1422
17	Mathieu Garon	EDM	47	1359	118	1241	0.9132	0.9108	0.0024	2.3793
18	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	72	1823	160	1663	0.9122	0.9108	0.0014	1.4404
19	Manny Legace	STL	66	1648	147	1501	0.9108	0.9108	0.0000	0.0088
20	Martin Gerber	OTT	57	1619	145	1474	0.9104	0.9108	-0.0004	-0.3536
21	Jose Theodore	COL	53	1367	123	1244	0.9100	0.9108	-0.0008	-0.7702
22	Jason LaBarbera	LAK	45	1341	121	1220	0.9098	0.9108	-0.0010	-1.0234
23	Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	77	1802	163	1639	0.9095	0.9108	-0.0012	-1.2472
24	Marty Turco	DAL	62	1543	140	1403	0.9093	0.9108	-0.0015	-1.5245
25	Nikolai Khabibulin	CHI	50	1389	127	1262	0.9086	0.9108	-0.0022	-2.2249
26	Alex Auld	PHX, BOS	32	827	77	750	0.9069	0.9108	-0.0039	-3.8998
27	Ryan Miller	BUF	76	2104	197	1907	0.9064	0.9108	-0.0044	-4.4234
28	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	76	2096	197	1899	0.9060	0.9108	-0.0048	-4.7807
29	Vesa Toskala	TOR	66	1824	175	1649	0.9041	0.9108	-0.0067	-6.7352
30	Cam Ward	CAR	69	1870	180	1690	0.9037	0.9108	-0.0070	-7.0489
31	Peter Budaj	COL	35	849	82	767	0.9034	0.9108	-0.0074	-7.3764
32	Rick DiPietro	NYI	63	1779	174	1605	0.9022	0.9108	-0.0086	-8.5999
33	Dominik Hasek	DET	41	855	84	771	0.9018	0.9108	-0.0090	-9.0378
34	Dwayne Roloson	EDM	43	1204	119	1085	0.9012	0.9108	-0.0096	-9.6294
35	Mike Smith	DAL, TBL	34	848	84	764	0.9009	0.9108	-0.0098	-9.8488
36	Chris Mason	NSH	51	1278	130	1148	0.8983	0.9108	-0.0125	-12.5136
37	Patrick Lalime	CHI	32	835	86	749	0.8970	0.9108	-0.0138	-13.7862
38	Fredrik Norrena	CBJ	37	856	89	767	0.8960	0.9108	-0.0148	-14.7642
39	Olie Kolzig	WSH	54	1423	153	1270	0.8925	0.9108	-0.0183	-18.3115
40	Johan Hedberg	ATL	36	1026	111	915	0.8918	0.9108	-0.0190	-18.9793
41	Johan Holmqvist	TBL, DAL	47	1164	129	1035	0.8892	0.9108	-0.0216	-21.6169

2008-2009 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Tim Thomas	BOS	54	1694	114	1580	0.9327	0.9109	0.0218	21.8238
2	Tomas Vokoun	FLA	59	1855	138	1717	0.9256	0.9109	0.0147	14.7266
3	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	71	2059	159	1900	0.9228	0.9109	0.0119	11.8982
4	Roberto Luongo	VAN	54	1542	124	1418	0.9196	0.9109	0.0087	8.7051
5	Nikolai Khabibulin	CHI	42	1192	96	1096	0.9195	0.9109	0.0086	8.5832
6	Jonas Hiller	ANA	46	1217	99	1118	0.9187	0.9109	0.0078	7.7725
7	Ryan Miller	BUF	59	1773	145	1628	0.9182	0.9109	0.0073	7.3378
8	Scott Clemmensen	NJD	40	1138	94	1044	0.9174	0.9109	0.0065	6.5191
9	Pekka Rinne	NSH	52	1435	119	1316	0.9171	0.9109	0.0062	6.1933
10	Chris Mason	STL	57	1544	129	1415	0.9165	0.9109	0.0056	5.5709
11	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	70	2007	168	1839	0.9163	0.9109	0.0054	5.4131
12	Cam Ward	CAR	68	1901	160	1741	0.9158	0.9109	0.0050	4.9539
13	Mike Smith	TBL	41	1282	108	1174	0.9158	0.9109	0.0049	4.8768
14	Steve Mason	CBJ	61	1658	140	1518	0.9156	0.9109	0.0047	4.6810
15	Martin Biron	PHI	55	1718	146	1572	0.9150	0.9109	0.0041	4.1376
16	Dwayne Roloson	EDM	63	1953	166	1787	0.9150	0.9109	0.0041	4.1227
17	Jaroslav Halak	MTL	34	1077	92	985	0.9146	0.9109	0.0037	3.6977
18	Jonathan Quick	LAK	44	1200	103	1097	0.9142	0.9109	0.0033	3.2868
19	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	62	1850	162	1688	0.9124	0.9109	0.0016	1.5526
20	Antero Niittymaki	PHI	32	947	83	864	0.9124	0.9109	0.0015	1.4749
21	Alex Auld	OTT	43	1141	101	1040	0.9115	0.9109	0.0006	0.6013
22	Kari Lehtonen	ATL	46	1498	134	1364	0.9105	0.9109	-0.0003	-0.3325
23	Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	62	1663	150	1513	0.9098	0.9109	-0.0011	-1.0783
24	Ty Conklin	DET	40	1033	94	939	0.9090	0.9109	-0.0019	-1.8770
25	Cristobal Huet	CHI	41	1087	99	988	0.9089	0.9109	-0.0020	-1.9562
26	Ilya Bryzgalov	PHX	65	1994	187	1807	0.9062	0.9109	-0.0047	-4.6612
27	Carey Price	MTL	52	1513	143	1370	0.9055	0.9109	-0.0054	-5.3941
28	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	76	2155	209	1946	0.9030	0.9109	-0.0079	-7.8636
29	Joey MacDonald	NYI	49	1584	157	1427	0.9009	0.9109	-0.0100	-9.9960
30	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	ANA	46	1274	127	1147	0.9003	0.9109	-0.0106	-10.5659
31	Dan Ellis	NSH	35	963	96	867	0.9003	0.9109	-0.0106	-10.5684
32	Jose Theodore	WSH	57	1572	157	1415	0.9001	0.9109	-0.0108	-10.7527
33	Peter Budaj	COL	56	1531	154	1377	0.8994	0.9109	-0.0115	-11.4677
34	Marty Turco	DAL	74	1993	203	1790	0.8981	0.9109	-0.0127	-12.7364
35	Vesa Toskala	TOR	53	1518	166	1352	0.8906	0.9109	-0.0202	-20.2343
36	Chris Osgood	DET	46	1208	137	1071	0.8866	0.9109	-0.0243	-24.2905
37	Johan Hedberg	ATL	33	875	100	775	0.8857	0.9109	-0.0252	-25.1656

2009-2010 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Tuukka Rask	45	BOS	1221	84	1137	0.9312	0.9124	0.0188	18.8088
2	Ryan Miller	69	BUF	2098	150	1948	0.9285	0.9124	0.0161	16.1082
3	Tomas Vokoun	63	FLA	2081	157	1924	0.9246	0.9124	0.0122	12.1603
4	Jaroslav Halak	45	MTL	1386	105	1281	0.9242	0.9124	0.0118	11.8473
5	Jimmy Howard	63	DET	1849	141	1708	0.9237	0.9124	0.0113	11.3474
6	Evgeni Nabokov	71	SJS	2168	170	1998	0.9216	0.9124	0.0092	9.1916
7	Henrik Lundqvist	73	NYR	2109	167	1942	0.9208	0.9124	0.0084	8.4204
8	Ilya Bryzgalov	69	PHX	1961	156	1805	0.9204	0.9124	0.0081	8.0536
9	Miikka Kiprusoff	73	CGY	2035	163	1872	0.9199	0.9124	0.0075	7.5066
10	Jonas Hiller	59	ANA	1860	152	1708	0.9183	0.9124	0.0059	5.8844
11	Craig Anderson	71	COL	2233	186	2047	0.9167	0.9124	0.0043	4.3088
12	Martin Brodeur	77	NJD	2004	168	1836	0.9162	0.9124	0.0038	3.7725
13	Cam Ward	47	CAR	1409	119	1290	0.9155	0.9124	0.0031	3.1478
14	Johan Hedberg	47	ATL	1355	115	1240	0.9151	0.9124	0.0027	2.7340
15	Tim Thomas	43	BOS	1221	104	1117	0.9148	0.9124	0.0024	2.4288
16	Chris Mason	61	STL	1699	148	1551	0.9129	0.9124	0.0005	0.4948
17	Roberto Luongo	68	VAN	1915	167	1748	0.9128	0.9124	0.0004	0.3986
18	Marty Turco	53	DAL	1605	140	1465	0.9128	0.9124	0.0004	0.3774
19	Antti Niemi	39	CHI	936	82	854	0.9124	0.9124	0.0000	-0.0020
20	Carey Price	41	MTL	1244	109	1135	0.9124	0.9124	0.0000	-0.0157
21	Pekka Rinne	58	NSH	1541	137	1404	0.9111	0.9124	-0.0013	-1.2985
22	Jose Theodore	47	WSH	1352	121	1231	0.9105	0.9124	-0.0019	-1.8922
23	Brian Elliott	55	OTT	1424	130	1294	0.9087	0.9124	-0.0037	-3.6873
24	Antero Niittymaki	49	TBL	1388	127	1261	0.9085	0.9124	-0.0039	-3.8937
25	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	35	ANA, TOR	1031	96	935	0.9069	0.9124	-0.0055	-5.5086
26	Dwayne Roloson	50	NYI	1555	145	1410	0.9068	0.9124	-0.0056	-5.6427
27	Jonathan Quick	72	LAK	1927	180	1747	0.9066	0.9124	-0.0058	-5.8046
28	Ondrej Pavelec	42	ATL	1353	127	1226	0.9061	0.9124	-0.0063	-6.2606
29	Michael Leighton	34	CAR, PHI	899	85	814	0.9055	0.9124	-0.0069	-6.9447
30	Marc-Andre Fleury	67	PIT	1772	168	1604	0.9052	0.9124	-0.0072	-7.2033
31	Mathieu Garon	35	CBJ	858	83	775	0.9033	0.9124	-0.0091	-9.1318
32	Niklas Backstrom	60	MIN	1632	158	1474	0.9032	0.9124	-0.0092	-9.2089
33	Jonas Gustavsson	42	TOR	1146	112	1034	0.9023	0.9124	-0.0101	-10.1264
34	Steve Mason	58	CBJ	1653	163	1490	0.9014	0.9124	-0.0110	-11.0037
35	Jeff Deslauriers	48	EDM	1529	152	1377	0.9006	0.9124	-0.0118	-11.8065
36	Mike Smith	42	TBL	1165	117	1048	0.8996	0.9124	-0.0128	-12.8243
37	Brian Boucher	33	PHI	796	80	716	0.8995	0.9124	-0.0129	-12.8977
38	Cristobal Huet	48	CHI	1083	114	969	0.8947	0.9124	-0.0177	-17.6583
39	Pascal Leclaire	34	OTT	822	93	729	0.8869	0.9124	-0.0255	-25.5338
40	Vesa Toskala	32	TOR, CGY	773	93	680	0.8797	0.9124	-0.0327	-32.7056

2010-2011 Season
Rank	Player	Team	GP	Shots Against	Goals Against	Saves	Save %	Average Save Percentage of Goalies who Played >30%	Difference	*Difference 1000**
1	Tim Thomas	BOS	44	1401	85	1316	0.9393	0.9140	0.0253	25.3042
2	James Reimer	TOR	19	563	40	523	0.9290	0.9140	0.0149	14.9272
3	Pekka Rinne	NSH	46	1334	97	1237	0.9273	0.9140	0.0133	13.2615
4	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	39	1224	90	1134	0.9265	0.9140	0.0124	12.4458
5	Jonas Hiller	ANA	48	1484	111	1373	0.9252	0.9140	0.0112	11.1773
6	Roberto Luongo	VAN	47	1394	106	1288	0.9240	0.9140	0.0099	9.9350
7	Semyon Varlamov	WSH	24	677	52	625	0.9232	0.9140	0.0092	9.1657
8	Corey Crawford	CHI	38	1035	80	955	0.9227	0.9140	0.0087	8.6805
9	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	50	1457	114	1343	0.9218	0.9140	0.0077	7.7322
10	Tomas Vokoun	FLA	47	1457	114	1343	0.9218	0.9140	0.0077	7.7322
11	Brian Boucher	PHI	26	708	57	651	0.9195	0.9140	0.0055	5.4667
12	Carey Price	MTL	55	1623	131	1492	0.9193	0.9140	0.0053	5.2604
13	Ondrej Pavelec	ATL	47	1442	117	1325	0.9189	0.9140	0.0048	4.8379
14	Antti Niemi	SJS	42	1227	100	1127	0.9185	0.9140	0.0045	4.4756
15	Cam Ward	CAR	56	1799	147	1652	0.9183	0.9140	0.0043	4.2631
16	Sergei Bobrovsky	PHI	39	1112	91	1021	0.9182	0.9140	0.0041	4.1406
17	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	52	1405	115	1290	0.9181	0.9140	0.0041	4.1246
18	Ilya Bryzgalov	PHX	51	1592	131	1461	0.9177	0.9140	0.0037	3.6887
19	Jonathan Quick	LAK	47	1244	103	1141	0.9172	0.9140	0.0032	3.1777
20	Kari Lehtonen	DAL	49	1505	127	1378	0.9156	0.9140	0.0016	1.5898
21	Ryan Miller	BUF	51	1545	133	1412	0.9139	0.9140	-0.0001	-0.1090
22	Johan Hedberg	NJD	31	688	60	628	0.9128	0.9140	-0.0012	-1.2341
23	Dwayne Roloson	NYI, TBL	39	1153	101	1052	0.9124	0.9140	-0.0016	-1.6224
24	Michal Neuvirth	WSH	37	980	87	893	0.9112	0.9140	-0.0028	-2.8003
25	Devan Dubnyk	EDM	25	784	70	714	0.9107	0.9140	-0.0033	-3.3106
26	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	55	1511	139	1372	0.9080	0.9140	-0.0060	-6.0169
27	Jimmy Howard	DET	48	1393	129	1264	0.9074	0.9140	-0.0066	-6.6307
28	Jaroslav Halak	STL	43	1183	110	1073	0.9070	0.9140	-0.0070	-7.0088
29	Craig Anderson	COL, OTT	37	1097	104	993	0.9052	0.9140	-0.0088	-8.8288
30	Steve Mason	CBJ	40	1146	109	1037	0.9049	0.9140	-0.0091	-9.1383
31	Mathieu Garon	CBJ	28	677	65	612	0.9040	0.9140	-0.0100	-10.0367
32	Martin Brodeur	NJD	39	924	93	831	0.8994	0.9140	-0.0147	-14.6742
33	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	TOR	29	728	74	654	0.8984	0.9140	-0.0157	-15.6732
34	Marty Turco	CHI	28	775	80	695	0.8968	0.9140	-0.0173	-17.2506
35	Peter Budaj	COL	34	958	99	859	0.8967	0.9140	-0.0174	-17.3651
36	Nikolai Khabibulin	EDM	39	1152	123	1029	0.8932	0.9140	-0.0208	-20.7957
37	Brian Elliott	OTT, COL	45	1220	131	1089	0.8926	0.9140	-0.0214	-21.4019
38	Dan Ellis	TBL, ANA	33	796	87	709	0.8907	0.9140	-0.0233	-23.3213
39	Jonas Gustavsson	TOR	23	620	68	552	0.8903	0.9140	-0.0237	-23.7023

Season	Goalies who played more than 30 games	All Goalies
2005/2006	0.904	0.901
2006/2007	0.909	0.905
2007/2008	0.911	0.909
2008/2009	0.911	0.908
2009/2010	0.912	0.911
2010/2011	0.914	N/A
Average	0.910	0.907

Some things I notice (please note for ease of writing I use the term "percentage point" for what is actually a tenth of a percentage point (using a scale of 1000% instead of 100%)):

The best goaltending the Leafs have gotten since the lockout was Vesa Toskala in 2007-2008 with a 0.9041 save %. This was 6.7352 percentage points below average and good for 29th in the league!
This has been said many times but bares repeating each time an analysis shows it: Vesa Toskala's goaltending last year was the worst season of goaltending of any goaltender since the lockout. His save % of 0.8797 was 32.7056 percentage points below league average. The second worse was Marc Denis in 2006-2007 who was 26.0169 percentage points below league average. That means Toskala was more than 5 percentage points worse than the second worse season since the lockout!
Gustavsson (who is technically 1 GP short of the cut off) is the worst goaltender this year (slightly worst than Ellis at second worse).
Reimer (if he were to have played enough games to count) is second best this year. Further he has the 11th best save percentage relative to average since the lockout and would have been the BEST in 200-2008.
Huet deserved his contract. He was the best goaltender in 2005-2006, 11th best in 2006-2007, and 6th best in 2007-2008. Let this be a warning to anyone signing a UFA goaltender, its easy to judge Chicago now in hindsight but their decision made sense at the time.
One should not over value a single year's production (sorry statue builders). Dan Ellis lead the league in 2007-2008. Admittedly he did it with only 44 GP, so if a goalie plays more it may be easier to judge.
Miller is having the worst post Vezina season since the lockout, playing at exactly league average goaltending (for those curious Brodeur's save percentage in 2008-2009 was a 0.916, ~7 percentage points above league average).
Rookies can do very well and then go one of two routes. Some never again achieve that level of play (Dan Ellis 1st in 2007-2008), while some go on to great careers (Henrik Lundqvist 4th in 2005-2006, Nicklas Backstrom 1st in 2006-2007, Jonas HIller 6th in 2008-2009).
Niemi has been a very average goalie so far in his career. Basically exactly at avereage last year and ~4 percentage points above this year. Interesting contract with that in mind.
Giggy was number 3 to two guys who played less than 45 games in 2007-2008.
Minnesota goalies have always had good save percentages besides last year (their first season with a new coach). I believe that system inflates goalies stats (more analysis would have to be done to prove or disprove this).
Careful judging goalies in 2005-2006 (0.904 league average) and this year (0.914 league average).
I found the actual league-wide save percentages and have added it above (source: Quant Hockey). One thing I notice is that this concept of 0.910 hockey is only true for starters (in fact if we remove this year it drops to 0.909). League wide 0.907 is the average.

Cheers

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

Tweet Comment 75 comments | 7 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Neat! I love numbers.

One question: What was your thought process on only using these goalies that fit your criteria rather than league-wide average sv %? Was there a huge discrepency?

Also, fuck our goaltending since the lockout.

20 miles to Legoland!

by nhlcheapshot on Mar 1, 2011 5:55 PM EST reply actions

I am not sure if I should have or not. I figured there were two arguments:

Pro my method-These are the guys they are being compared to. These are the starters and their main competition

Anti my method-Every shot counts and the games with the other goalies surely do (probably a fair chunk of the season).

I probably should have used all, but this was the data set I have. Wouldn’t take much to fix it. If I find out what the S% is those years from another source I can easily adjust it.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

Found the numbers

This is a great site (http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_SavePercentage.php)

Year/My Calculation/Actual/Difference
’05/0.904/0.901/0.003
’06/0.909/0.905/0.004
’07/0.911/0.909/0.002
’08/0.911/0.908/0.003
’09/0.912/0.911/+0.001

They don’t have this years. So it deflates the average some. This makes sense following the logic that backups are likely to have worse numbers than starters. If I find the time I’ll change it, but it doesn’t make a large difference. The biggest one was in 06-07.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

Burtch'd

Added it as an addendum

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

Have to say

Great post, I love how you simplified something I always felt to be a tad confusing. Great job

Where in the world is Carmen San Diego?!!!

by SPERO on Mar 2, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks. I really appreciate that

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 3, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions

Very nice job.
1. I had no idea Gustavsson was having such a bad year.. I don’t know whether it’s a result of last year being such a disaster, but it seems he’s in this bad groove of playing each game as if it were a tryout for the next one. That never works… I hope he can recover his mojo, I’ve always liked him.

2. It might be a seperate analysis (good work usually spawns more questions :D) but I’ve always wondered if there’s any indicators in a goalie’s early years that help predict their potential…

.. I know the Leafs abuse me, but its because they LOVE me ..
.. 2/24/2011: I was there ..
@Vitamin_M_

by Vitamin_M on Mar 1, 2011 6:40 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the compliment. He actually had a strong start to the year and collapsed mid November. I actually made a graph of his year a while ago. I’ll find it and post it for you.

In regards to goalie’s potential I don’t know anything that directly answers that, but here is an article that has some information on a goalie’s first 60 games: http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/2/23/2005954/the-importance-of-a-goalies-first-15-games

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

BOOM! (x2)

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

DAY-AMN!

quite the rollercoaster… I had a feeling this was true – his last handful of starts were terrible…

.. I know the Leafs abuse me, but its because they LOVE me ..
.. 2/24/2011: I was there ..
@Vitamin_M_

by Vitamin_M on Mar 1, 2011 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

He was a league leader until Nov 24th. Nearly 0.925. Of course that was just 9 games. But if you calculated from the olympics to Nov 24 he was one of the top 5 goalies IIRC

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Can we get this with non-cumulative percentages?

Because with cum ones the graph is ALWAYS going to get less reactive as you move through the year. At the start of the season a string of good games will rocket your average, and by the end a string of good games will be put onto an enormous pile and will barely move the needles. Trends are easier to spot with non-cumulative measures.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Mar 2, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Sure. I’ll do this when I can

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 3, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions

Weird. SV% has been going up every year.

Move along. Nothing to see here...

by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Mar 1, 2011 8:39 PM EST reply actions

Wow

I completely missed that.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

Goalies getting used to smaller pads

by scrambles the death dealer on Mar 1, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions

I think penalties are also down since the end of the lockout….

Move along. Nothing to see here...

by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Mar 2, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

the return

of clutch and grab hockey… bound to happen over time.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Mar 2, 2011 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Perhaps

They made a bunch of changes at the time of the lockout to increase scoring… my guess is those had a temporary effect until teams adjusted.

I remember seeing a data set somewehre else that listed save percent by year across all 5 major leagues (NHL, Swedish elite, Russian, German, I think, some others), and the general trend across ALL of them was a nearly identical increase in save percents / decrease in goals scored. There was a small blip upward in the NHL after the lockout due to the rules change, and then the trend reasserted itself there too.

I think there may also be a similar trend in soccer, but I’m VERY hazy on that. The bottom line is probably that defense is easier to train for and coach, and so as coaching improves, it gets better faster than offense.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Mar 2, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

If you buy into the axioms that “defence is all about hard work” and “you can’t teach skill”, then is stands to reason that as training methods improve, save percentage would go up.

Athletes are in better shape, therefore they are able to work harder, and do so for longer stretches. That means improved D … and therefore lower scoring.

This space for rent...

by fair_n_hite_451 on Mar 2, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Both Cheechoo and Gionta scored 24 on the PP in 05-06, so you’re probably right.

by scrambles the death dealer on Mar 2, 2011 2:42 AM EST up reply actions

Penalties are down something like 30% from 2005-2006

On the Mike Weber bandwagon (Stupid penalties and all!)
(Patrick Lalime) is third in the league for doors shut, with a .935 shutting percentage - AcesNines

by Ubiquitous on Mar 2, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

I really should check ES Sv%

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

You’re making it harder and harder for me to defend Gus. Good post otherwise.

Move along. Nothing to see here...

by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Mar 1, 2011 9:22 PM EST reply actions

also

I’m just going to put this out there so I look like a genius:

my guess is Reimer puts up horrible numbers next year.

Move along. Nothing to see here...

by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Mar 1, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

Gah

I really hope not. I try not to like goalies until they have 2 seasons. Its because there have been way to many goalies to have a good first season and do nothing (see Raycroft and Mason). But even I (who has been trying to get people off the Reimer train) have been having trouble not getting excited.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 1, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

my guess is Reimer puts up horrible numbers next year.

That’s probably a safe bet.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Mar 1, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

I'm hoping

He puts up league average numbers next year… It wouldn’t be unheard of, for him to be quite good. All of Lundy, Backstrom, Rask, and Ryan Miller (he had played 18 games before the lockout) have had very good rookie seasons and continued to have very good careers thus far.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:33 AM EST up reply actions

Very few seem to think that he’s actually a .925 goalie, but I like others think he will regress no further than average. Prediction noted.

"I’ve been studying this and I’m pretty sure this is how it breaks down: 'You are allowed one team: The Leafs. In some cases, you can also root for a second team: The Leafs'"
-Cornelius Hardenbergh

by Nirbo on Mar 1, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

He likely won't keep putting up numbers

quite as good as these… particularly based on his career so far…. but he looks like he’s a fair sight better than most of what we’ve had in recent years.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Mar 2, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

His glove hand does scare me

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:33 AM EST up reply actions

That’s not a very high bar… but I’ll take it.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Mar 2, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

my guess is Reimer puts up horrible numbers next year.

Extremely likely.

20 miles to Legoland!

by nhlcheapshot on Mar 2, 2011 6:09 AM EST up reply actions

Horrible, or average?

.910 – .915 I’m okay with, especially since I hope he doesnt play more than 30-35 games.

by samspade on Mar 2, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Vehemently disagree

With the opening statement

I don’t care about stats, they’re just stupid numbers. Watch the damn game.

While these people are wholeheartedly wrong…

You can’t be wrong about whether or not you care about something.

Aulie Do Is Win Win Win No Matter What

by Archimedies on Mar 1, 2011 11:36 PM EST reply actions

But you can be wrong about whether or not something is stupid… or a number… or damn.

by Shield on Mar 1, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

Thank you shield

This is the part that is wrong:

I don’t care about stats, they’re just stupid numbers. Watch the damn game.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions

Great Work

But made me remember a question I’d been thinking about for a long time – has anyone done a comparison of team by team SV% over the years? Teams like Boston, Nashville, Minnesota, Anaheim seem to be at/near the top of the lists despite different goaltenders assuming the goaltending duties. Is there any evidence to suggest SV% is a function of the defensive system deployed by the team?

Dan Ellis was the best one year, and the worst another year (save for Toskala) – perhaps there are factors in play other than fluctuations in skill level.

elephant shell

by sportsfan2 on Mar 1, 2011 11:50 PM EST reply actions

dangit, toskala there should read gustavsson

elephant shell

by sportsfan2 on Mar 1, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I was wondering the same. I notice (like I always do) that Minny goalies always do quite well there. Maybe I’ll do an analysis of their goalies later.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions

would be near impossible to do in places like NJ that have one goalie longer than they have the same coaches and systems and such.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Mar 2, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

I was just noticing that Nabokov had some bad years during the Ron Wilson era in SJ, so I did this little calculation:

Nabokov during Ron Wilson years (’02 – 08): .905 SV%
Nabokov before and after RW years: .916 SV%

I’m not saying RW is to blame necessarily, just wondering along those same lines whether it is possible to work out the effect of a coach or team on goaltending performance.

Move along. Nothing to see here...

by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Mar 2, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions

There may be something to that, inasmuch as difference coaches play different styles of hockey, but I think it’d be a pretty tenuous connection.

Oh, you better believe that's a paddling.

by JP Nikota on Mar 2, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

For this kind of analysis I think its key to look at SV%-average S% because you are comparing year-year.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions

I'm actually

doing work on shot location for the Leafs… I’m guessing it will show some interesting things (at least this season) it certainly did offensively.

Post goes up 10 AM tomorrow…. I left my spread sheet out though… looking at each individual game for 63 games gave me too many numbers to bother putting up.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Mar 2, 2011 12:47 AM EST up reply actions

yes

like luck. 30 games really isn’t very many … a 65-70 game season shows you a truer level of a goalie’s repeatable skill.

The fact we’re mixing together 30 game guys with 50+ game guys makes this sort of hard to take whole hog.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Mar 2, 2011 12:48 AM EST up reply actions

For sure

If I have the time I’ll cut it down to 41 (half a season) and use ES% and post it as a google doc. I can’t guarantee I’ll have the time.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:36 AM EST up reply actions

Another thing that plays into this is scorer bias. I understand that certain rinks are notorious for inflating or deflating hits, shots, blocks, etc.

I dearly wish the NHL would isolate these stats on a home-road basis, as notwithstanding unbalanced schedules the road-only stats would probably be a much truer approximation.

For example, is it possible our atrocious post-lockout sv% is attributable at least in part to systematic undercounting of shots at the ACC? It would be very interesting for someone to actually spend the time to go and look at SF/SA for the Leafs home and away since the lockout.

"[Phil Kessel]'s as streaky as a flipped coin" - Shift

by The '67 Sound on Mar 2, 2011 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

Very good point

I fear we can not look at this (at least in regards to S%) for individual seasons though because the GP (and thus SA) would be too low. Particularly for the Leafs who because of our terrible goaltending have been splitting time so much. Besides Raycroft in 06/07 and Toskalol in 07/08 our goalies haven’t played more than mid 50s GP

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

Right, but it would still be possible to get a Rink Factor for shots.

by Papa Squid on Mar 2, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmm

Maybe not for one season. We are talking about 82 GP per season (41 GP in each arena * 2 goalies). It would be hard to get enough of a sample size for someone at any one arena. Also if you look at home stats their could be other confounding factors besides the arena itself (ie it wouldn’t effect two different goalies playing away games there)

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

It would be done like it is for baseball. Over multiple seasons. Typically, in baseball, it’s rolling three year average. And it would be an arena metric, not really a goaltender metric.

I admit, I’m not certain you’d glean much from it. I suspect the difference isn’t much more than 2% either way.

by Papa Squid on Mar 2, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

The problem is that this measure would be perfectly confounded with teams.

Every single game at the ACC is played by the Leafs. So does the ACC staff undercount, or do the Leafs play a home game that minimizes shots for and against? You could never tell.

Glory glory Man United, AND the other MU, AAAAnd the Leafs. I think I need a drink now.

by Wan Ihite on Mar 2, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Oh and

last thing… could you re-run the numbers with ES SV% rather than just plain old SV%? I think the statistic would be more meaningful in terms of actual measurement of goaltender’s skill.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Mar 2, 2011 12:49 AM EST reply actions

I’ll just repeat what I wrote above:

If I have the time I’ll cut it down to 41 (half a season) and use ES% and post it as a google doc. I can’t guarantee I’ll have the time.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:36 AM EST up reply actions

Need to adjust the terminology somehow – it’s not actually 32.7056 “percentage” points, it’s out of 1,000. Minor point.

Follow someone else on Twitter.

by not norm ullman on Mar 2, 2011 2:04 AM EST reply actions

I realized that as I wrote it, but it made it easier to type. I’ll put a disclaimer in.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions

BOOM!

Added this note:

please note for ease of writing I use the term “percentage point” for what is actually a tenth of a percentage point (using a scale of 1000% instead of 100%)

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:40 AM EST up reply actions

Fascinating read. The over time progression of seasonal average adds a interesting twist to projecting goalie performance in the short and medium term. I think Steve’s assertion that a return to clutch and grab hockey might answer why this is occurring.

Brain: The irony of it all, Pinky. Years of trying to take over the world, and all I had to do was say "truculence".
Follow me I'm Boring!
Devour my Revolution!

by blindfolded tank driver on Mar 2, 2011 7:10 AM EST reply actions

Probably

Its shocking I didn’t notice it when I typed it. VR’s Neuro had to point it out to me

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks to whoever front paged this

I always like being front paged :D

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 8:45 AM EST reply actions

Change two “worse” to worst please.

Good article.

by not_Chemmy on Mar 2, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions

Haha

I am not a writer and am not overly concerned with typos.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

Here I fixed it for you it adds a few IQ points to an intelligent article. You should consider writing.

3. Gustavsson (who is technically 1 GP short of the cut off) is the worst goaltender this year (slightly worse than Ellis at second worst).

by not_Chemmy on Mar 2, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

Fixed

Thanks. I am not a writer and have a career path ahead of me that I am ecstatic about (I am in medical school). I have always been someone who loves debating and disliked writing because the finer points of grammar (the ones that come across in writing but not speaking) always annoyed me and I never bothered paying attention to them. Here on PPP I have found people who share both my love of the Leafs and have two key characteristics:
1) Everyone here likes arguing/discussing hockey and while arguments can get heated no one generally takes things personally.
2) (My favourite part) People are willing to change their opinion if proven wrong.

I write here just so I can share my opinion and maybe it will grow as a hobby, but it will always be just that.

Cheers

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions

My graphs are wide…

It’s OK… we like you for the person you are, not how your graphs look.

Interesting stuff. Reminds me why I hate stats and wish I had a statistician working with the lab to make sense of it al.

by Learn2Leaf on Mar 2, 2011 10:27 AM EST reply actions

Statistician’s are very useful. I have very rudimentary experience/training.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

To clarify

I have enough statistics training to interpret stats (particularly in medical journals) as that is very important for my future. I am not great at doing statistics myself.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 2, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

Great Post.

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2011 9:28 AM EST reply actions

Stay tuned everyone

For a follow up post with standard deviations

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 4, 2011 12:25 PM EST reply actions

Love this

Great post BCapp. Very straightforward and difficult to dispute (although that won’t stop anyone).

I’ve been doing a series of posts over at SCH based on the post-lockout era, so this really added more insight to my current project: league-wide scoring average, which has been steadily decreasing since 05-06.

Now I also have some more bullets in the gun to fight the never ending “Huet was overpaid” and “Niemi was our savior” debate. Thanks.

Regarding Vesa last year. Kukla’s Korner had a good article last summer. Toronto had the 3rd best team Corsi in the league in 09-10 which obviously suggests that the goaltending was awful. Glad to see Reimer doing well. I hope he keeps it going. I made a bet with a guy on SCH from Ottawa at the beginning of the season that the Leafs would make the playoffs. I would really hate to lose that bet.

I AM NOT NEUROTIC! I'm just worried that I might be.

by ChicagoNativeSon on Mar 7, 2011 11:38 PM EST reply actions

I have updated my data with SD and then organized it by the best and worst since the lockout. I just haven’t gotten around to posting it. So check back soon.

I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!

by BCapp on Mar 8, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions