A Sobering thought on Matt Frattin
by happiergilmore on Mar 27, 2011 8:54 PM EDT
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Editor's Note: Happiergilmore takes a look at Matt Frattin's career at the University of North Dakota.
This is my first fanpost, I hope you enjoy. No pun intended on the article title.
He was drafted in the 4th round, 99th overall by JFJ. He was suspended from the University of North Dakota hockey team prior to his junior season for a pair of off-ice, alcohol related incidents. He re-enrolled at the school and walked back onto the team, becoming a key fixture with the team. He led the NCAA in goals this year and finished 2nd in points. He wore the 'A' for UND this year, leading them to the WCHA regular season and tournament titles. The far-and-away favourite for the Hobey Baker award is now busy trying to take UND to an NCAA championship.
Frattin on why he came back to UND:
I had to come back and prove to the school, the fans and to my teammates and coaches, why I picked North Dakota.
Coach Dave Hastkol on Matt's decision:
He took the hard and difficult path and a real honest path and decided to work his way back to our program. Not a lot of people are able to do that. A lot of people will turn the other way and go away from the problem.
Standing at 6'1 and weighing 206 lbs, Matt Frattin is strong, fast and excellent with and without the puck. A hard worker on and off the ice, he has shown he can score goals, especially in big moments, set up teammates and play a physical game as well. Frattin has shown to be more of a goal scorer, with a powerful snapshot he likes to use from anywhere on the ice. He has shown good progression in stats from year to year and he has also been relied on more each year as a player and a leader.
Here are Matt Frattin's career NCAA stats:
|
Season |
GP |
Goals |
Assists |
Points |
+/- |
PPG |
PIM |
|
2007-08 |
43 |
4 |
11 |
15 |
+11 |
0.35 |
18 |
|
2008-09 |
42 |
13 |
12 |
25 |
E |
0.6 |
48 |
|
2009-10 |
24 |
11 |
8 |
19 |
+7 |
0.8 |
21 |
|
2010-11 |
42 |
36 |
23 |
59 |
+27 |
1.4 |
40 |
|
TOTAL |
151 |
64 |
54 |
118 |
+45 |
0.78 |
127 |
Here are Matt Frattin's career WCHA stats:
|
Season |
GP |
Goals |
Assists |
Points |
+/- |
PPG |
PIM |
|
2007-08 |
28 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
+7 |
0.32 |
16 |
|
2008-09 |
27 |
6 |
5 |
11 |
E |
0.4 |
38 |
|
2009-10 |
14 |
5 |
6 |
11 |
+1 |
0.78 |
15 |
|
2010-11 |
28 |
22 |
18 |
40 |
+21 |
1.43 |
28 |
|
TOTAL |
97 |
35 |
36 |
71 |
+29 |
0.73 |
97 |
The Bold numbers show where Frattin led the team in that category.
He was named to the 2010-11 All-WCHA First Team. He was selected as the 2010-11 WCHA Player of the Year and the 2010-11 WCHA Tournament MVP.
His NCAA success cannot be ignored, but when thought out rationally, there is as good a chance Frattin never comes to fruition in the NHL as there is one of him sticking. He has the size, speed and skill but there have been better players before him who never had NHL success.
From here there are a few roads he could potentially go down. He may wind up as an NHL 2nd/3rd liner or an AHL standout, or he may never be able to translate to the North American pro game and wind up in Europe. These are career paths that have been travelled by many.
Kevin Porter (glovetap to BCapp for finding me him), 5'11 195 lbs, had a very successful NCAA career with Michigan with a fairly similar senior season to Frattin. He scored 33 goals and 30 assists for 63 points in 43 games. He was named to the CCHA First All-Star team once and the Second Team once. He was CCHA Player of the Year in 2007-2008, and NCAA West First Team All-American as well as winning the Hobey Baker.
Porter was drafted around the same spot as Frattin, 119th overall in the 4th round of the 2004 draft by Phoenix. He currently is a member of the Colorado Avalanche. He has 22 pts in 66 games and plays a mainly 3rd line role. Before finally sticking this season, he played in the AHL mainly, with two stints in the NHL, one lasting 4 and one lasting 34 games. Porter's numbers suggest he may never be more than a role player.
Colin Murphy, 6'0 195 lbs, also had a successful NCAA career. Murphy, a LW for Michigan Tech, posted 11 goals and 42 assists for 53 points in 37 games his senior season. While not as much of a goal scorer, his PPG in his senior season was still around the same marker as Frattin's. Murphy was selected to the 2004-05 All-WCHA First Team and the NCAA West All-American Second Team.
Murphy was never drafted however, signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs organization after his senior season. After having a mediocre AHL career with the St. John's Maple Leafs/Toronto Marlies for 4 years, he was signed as a UFA by the Sabres, playing for the AHL affiliate in Portland. After an unsuccessful season there, he went unsigned by any NHL teams and is now a PPG player in the DEL (German league) for Augsburger.
Frattin still has not signed with the Leafs (he will be able to sign a contract once UND's tournament is over) however many are excited for him. In a hockey market such as Toronto, especially one that has been craving for a system loaded with prospect talent, having a player like Frattin that is putting up big numbers, winning awards, kicking asses and taking names, will get fans excited. But I hope I have shown you that his success at the NCAA level will likely not translate to being a 55+ point NHL player.
Do you think he will eventually find his way into the NHL? Where does he top out as a pro? Discuss below.
Thanks for reading, Go Leafs Go.
PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.
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Rec'd great first fanpost
I think there is a decent chance he can turn into a regular NHLer in the long run. But his realistic ceiling is probably 15/40 (one he may never reach). He seems to have all the tools to play the game the right way for a depth player so if he wants to accept that role it may turn out well.
One thing you didn’t point out (explicitly) is that he goes UFA in mid July (you did mention we haven’t signed him yet). So it is possible he decides to go this route. Hopefully he wants to get some playing time in this year which means he has to sign with us.
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Something of note
is the draft pick status. Porter was drafted, so was Frattin… Murphy wasn’t a Hobey Baker candidate as far as I know, and most of his points in his senior year were assists. He hit an NCAA high in goals when he was a Sophomore actually at 20.
There’s a big distinction from 11 goals to 36 from a goal scoring perspective.
Also important to remember is the quality of team that they play on … limiting minutes etc. Porter was a Hobey Baker award winner and team leader on a team that included Max Pacioretty, Aaron Palushaj, Chad Kolarik, and Louie Caporusso.
Frattin is playing on a North Dakota team that includes Corbin Knight (5th round pick of Florida), Jason Gregoire (3rd round pick of the Islanders), Danny Kristo (2nd round pick of the Habs), and Brett Hextall (6th round pick of Phoenix).
The Sioux and Wolverines are top program teams in the NCAA… that makes things a bit different than playing for the Mustangs.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
one thing I did wonder
is that while we report ppg, wouldn’t it be more useful if it came with %g (percent of the points that were goals).
So you could say Frattin had1.4 ppg, at 61% goals… that paints a more complete mixture of their offensive contribution
Rec'd
Thanks for bringing some common sense into the Frattin conversation.
50% of the Hobey winners either never made the NHL or only performed spot duty
17% of the winners had stellar NHL careers (N.Broten, R.Miller, P.Kariya, C.Drury, B.Morrison)
20% of the winners had/are having decent NHL careers
and the jury remains out on the other 13%.
Odds are Frattin will be more Junior Lessard than Neal Broten, but he’s still worth rolling the dice on.
Pretty sure the award is for seniors, so about 22ish?
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by happiergilmore on Mar 27, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
No the award is for the best college players, regardless of age and class.
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All of them were younger.
Miller was 20
Drury was 21
Morrison was 21
Kariya was 18 (first freshman to win it)
Broten was 20
by YakovMironov on Mar 27, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahhh so it’s NOT a Senior award.
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by happiergilmore on Mar 27, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope. And it looks like the most successful players win it earlier in their NCAA careers.
All of the above winners also have later birthdays in the year than Frattin, and when you factor in Frattin’s throwaway junior year he is not far off the pace of Morrison and Drury.
by YakovMironov on Mar 27, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Except he was not a good enough player to win it in his junior year at the age of 21
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Between his injury and off-ice problems I’m giving him a mulligan on his junior year, but I see your point and based on his numbers projected out over a full season, he was improved, but not particularly noteworthy.
by YakovMironov on Mar 27, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
we’ll see if he’s about the money, because financially, it would make way more sense to become an UFA then to sign an ELC. Hopefully he wants to keep playing as it seems he would have a shot right away with the Marlies/Leafs, but I am going to bet his agent will try to get him to wait.
Well he won’t sign until UND either wins the NCAA championship or they get knocked out. Once either of those happen, he’ll be looking at signing a deal.
#FrattinWatch2011
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by happiergilmore on Mar 27, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He won’t necessarily get more if he waits. As a UFA he will still be signing an ELC…
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I'm almost sure
Burke will at least give him a max rooking contract to get a deal done. He’s not really a guy you want to lose and he does have bargaining power so we might even see him in a 1 game as part of a deal.
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There is no way we go max rookie. The CBA is expiring which means max rookie is 3.75. He is not worth that.
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Ya, I imagine he gets max rookie “based” salary (i.e. 900k base) + a couple bonuses, maybe only negotiate the ones he thinks are actually achievable (i.e. leave out conn smythe, etc.), not sure which ones take up the most cap.
You can't give up hope just because it's hopeless. You have to hope even harder, cover your ears, and go 'blah blah blah blah blah!'
by nhlcheapshot on Mar 28, 2011 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Its all on capgeeks faq
Found here under “How do entry level contracts work”
Basically there are the awards based ones which are more predetermined (he probably won’t get any in his contract) and then there are the "achievement ones). There are 9 of these achievement ones. Each one can’t be for more than $212 500 per, and cannot exceed $850 000 total. Here are the options for a forward:
top 6 forward by ice time (aggregrate or per game) *
-20 G
-35A
-60 pts
-0.73 pts per game*
-top 3 forwards on club in +/
-All rookie team
-All star game invite
-All star game MVP
*For these awards you need to play at least 42 games
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see ya in functions tomorrow.
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by happiergilmore on Mar 27, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Welcome
Thanks for joining.
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great post, well done
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by blindfolded tank driver on Mar 27, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions
I give him a 40% odds at becoming a bottom 6 grinder/energy forward with production somewhere between Bozak and Macarthur. A 10% chance at replacing lupul or clarke or that type of role on the top 6. And 50% chance of playing in the swiss leagues.
The personal issues he has overcome makes me think he has the spirit to be in the NHL.
Quality post, but if you really wanted to sober people up, you could have included the following comparison:
Matt Frattin, age 23, born January 3rd 1988
Phil Kessel, age 23, born October 2nd 1987
No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise.
As much as that point sout how much better Kessel is than Frattin i havent seen anyone making that comparison. Everyone knows this already (at least they should) , Kessel is an Elite talent in the NHL. I would be 100% happy if he fits in on the 3rd line puts up 10/30 and pisses the hell out of everyone in the league.
by schennsational on Mar 28, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
from what i’ve heard of Frattin, he isnt much of an agitator or talker
he just likes to smash into thing at heightened speeds
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 28, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Perfect to go with ross.
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by happiergilmore on Mar 28, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
No, but I have seen people be overly optimistic on where Frattin will end up on the Leafs. The point I was trying to make is that if Frattin really was as amazing as some people think, he’d have quit college two years ago.
No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise.
Great first post!
I don’t expect Frattin to set the world on fire. It would be nice if he became a second or third-line forward for the Leafs once he adapts to the pro game.
For those interested, here is the hit pictured above: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsxyzGkmAgg
Frattin received a charging major.
by scrambles the death dealer on Mar 28, 2011 2:26 AM EDT reply actions
Good work HG!
Good stuff for a first post.
by schennsational on Mar 28, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions
I’m pretty sure Viktor Stalberg was a Hobey Baker winner, or at least candidate. Look how well that’s turned out.
by B-Style on Mar 28, 2011 12:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Was one of 10 nominees, didn’t become a finalist. All he every became was a 30 pt 3rd liner in the NHL. What a fucking scrub.
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Popped a Colboner - Certified Joe Colborne Fanboy
03/08/2011 - I saw THE Wookie score his 1st NHL goal.
03/19/2011 - Watched Kadri's 1st NHL goal from the West Bank
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by happiergilmore on Mar 28, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
If no one caught Skinny's sarcasm
We would be happy if Frattin becomes a 30 pt third liner.
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On that note
Does anyone remember people saying that Stalberg was the better player than Versteeg in early November, because Steeg had the slow start? Funny stuff
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Yeah I remember it
because I was the one saying it.
Season stats at this point?
Stalberg: 12 G, 23 P, in 71 GP, while playing an average of 10:39 in ice time a night. He’s averaging 1.83 pts/60 minutes of ice time, and 0.32 ppg, despite playing 4 minutes less a night than he did last year.
Versteeg: 20 G, 43 P, in 75 GP, while playing an average of 17:52 in ice time nightly. He’s averaging 1.93 pts/60 minutes of ice time, and 0.57 ppg, despite playing the most minutes of his career this season. Since the trade to Philadelphia, he has 6 goals and 8 points in 22 games, and is averaging 15:18 per night. With the Flyers, he’s averaging 1.43 pts/60 minutes of ice time, and 0.36 ppg. He plays 5 more minutes a night on average than Stalberg, and his production is virtually the same.
So yeah… I’ll stick to my point, I don’t think Versteeg is horribly superior overall to Stalberg at this point, despite the distinctions in their career numbers. He hasn’t done a tonne of producing in Philly since he got there, particularly when you recall that 2 of those 6 goals came in a game against the Leafs… that means in the rest of his games, he has 4 goals and 6 points in 21 games? wtg STEEG!
Stalberg hits a lot for a guy playing 10 minutes a night, which people don’t think about, but he has over 100 hits on the year.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
This was a really good read!
As an unrepentant UND homer, I really want Frattin to be something amazing, but realistically, I’d be thrilled with bottom 6.
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