13 - 18 - 11
by JP Nikota on Mar 4, 2011 12:00 PM EST
in The Noon Number
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PrintThat's the Leafs' fighting record so far this year. 13 wins, 18 losses, and 11 ties. Before digging into these numbers a bit, a short preamble:
This past off-season, while writing for LeafsHQ under my old moniker ‘Fleet Fox', I put together a win/loss fight record for the top 30 fighters in the league, and also put together the win/loss fight record for the Leafs' 2009-2010 season. Given the emphasis Brian Burke has so explicitly put on his team being capable of defending itself via fighting, it seemed a natural thing to investigate.
Not only are fights fun to keep track of but their effect on game outcomes is also an interesting concept to explore. Obviously, we have all seen fights change the momentum and character of a game before but how often does that really happen?
Head over the jump to find out.
In the aforementioned article about The Leafs' fights, I decided to track which team scored the next goal as a way of testing whether or not fighting has any tangible impact on a game's momentum, and sorted the results by fights won, lost, and tied. There are obviously more precise ways of going about this, such as setting a time limit before and after fights and looking for shifts in Corsi numbers, number of hits, save percentages, not to mention a whole host of other advanced statistics that might provide some insight into the changing dynamics of a game, but I think that my rudimentary study is still worthwhile, not to mention a heck of a lot less work. Today, I've decided to run the same little study again on this season's numbers.
So without further ado, I present to you the numbers for the 2010-2011 Toronto Maple Pugilists. A few notes on the numbers are beside the chart. All info is from www.hockeyfights.com.
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- The team holds a record of 13 wins, 18 losses, and 11 ties, and has been in 42 scraps so far. That's good for 10th most fighting majors in the league.
- Orr is the only fighter on our team that holds a winning record.
- The Leafs are the first team to score after a fight 48% of the time, opponents score next 42% of the time, and no one scores again 12% of the time. Note that the numbers don't quite add up because I've rounded them up.
- Although roughly 54% of the time the Leafs do not score the next goal, the fact that they're generally outscored anyway makes this a negligible difference.
- When the Leafs win a fight this season, they score the next goal 46% of the time, but the opposition also scores next 46% of the time, and no one scores 8% of the time. We're talking about a small sample size of course, but obviously, winning fights isn't doing this team any big favors.
- When the Leafs lose a fight this season, they score next 39% of the time, the opposition scores next 56% of the time, and no one scores again 17% of the time.
- When the Leafs fight to a draw, they score next 73% of the time, their opponents score next 18% of the time, and no one scores 11% of the time.
- Put another way, the Leafs see no advantage on the scoreboard 54% of the time after they've won a fight, and see no advantage on the scoreboard 73% of the time after they've lost a fight. Tying, on the other has been quite lucrative for the Leafs, although I would imagine that this would even out fairly quickly with a larger sample size.
Here's a table with individual player numbers:
* Kulemin is listed as having been in one fight, but he did not receive a fighting major. His "combatant", Gleason, did.
It's very important not to get too caught up in this tiny sample size, and start making bold pronouncements about whether or not fighting is of any use to a team's success in the regular season. That said, I'll admit that even after such a quick and limited study such as this, I would be very surprised to find out that there was any worthwhile connection between goal scoring and fighting - win or lose.
For me, fights are a fun aspect of the game in and of themselves, and I don't really need any further reason to want them to remain a part of the game. That said, I'm not crazy about keeping the likes of Colton Orr in the lineup. Our fighters being capable hockey players has got to be much more important than their win/loss records at fisticuffs.
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Would it be easy for you to combine the data you’ve now compiled for the past two yearsr? Would be interesting to see if anything emerges as the sample size increases. Right now I agree with you, I see no evidence of any meaningful effect on game outcomes.
"[Phil Kessel]'s as streaky as a flipped coin" - Shift
I’d like to know our record in games in which we fight, win or loss.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I like how this team, after the first 1/4 of the season, has stopped with the whole staged enforcer on enforcer fighting, and instead gone to the fight to stick up for yourself model. Everyone loved Aulie punching up Hartnell last night, and images of MacArthur rag dolling Spacek make me grin ear to ear. Better yet, those two guys are pretty freaking good at hockey whereas Colton Orr has the foot speed of Jason Allison and the hands of my grandmother.
If you like seeing Colton Orr drop the gloves, I recommend buying Marlies tickets for next season because he should be waived.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
If you like seeing Colton Orr drop the gloves, I recommend buying Marlies tickets for next season because he should be waived.
Funny how well we’re doing with him out of the lineup. Not that the blame rests solely on his shoulders, but I’d rather ice 12 forwards than 11 forwards and a goon.
20 miles to Legoland!
by nhlcheapshot on Mar 4, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly, being able to play your fourth line more benefits everyone.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I see Orr as the “Nuclear option” that most enforcers around the league are used as. Like the silverwear you bring him around for special occasions when you really need someones face caved in.
An example would be like if Trevor Gillis cheap shotted a Leaf one game and was in the line up come the rematch
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, he’s perfect press-box fodder as long as his cap hit isn’t causing problems.
"[Phil Kessel]'s as streaky as a flipped coin" - Shift
by The '67 Sound on Mar 4, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Like when we unscratched Belak to deal with that POS Janssen
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
I obviously agree 100%. Even if the other team dresses a goon, no need to put one of ours in because it just means we’re playing 5v4 (in terms of NHL talent) when he’s on the ice. It’s not like you have to worry about fighting him, the goon code seems to prohibit fighting with non goons.
"[Phil Kessel]'s as streaky as a flipped coin" - Shift
by The '67 Sound on Mar 4, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Lately. there is no code
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Just curious
How did you decide who won or lost the fight?
"I'm not drinking and driving, I'm driving while I'm drinking....Right boys!?"
oh, nevermind, its info on that website hockeyfights.com, i presume
"I'm not drinking and driving, I'm driving while I'm drinking....Right boys!?"
Yes, the outcomes are voted on by viewers.
Usually it’s pretty obvious, but you have to account for fans’ bias to their own team.
20 miles to Legoland!
by nhlcheapshot on Mar 4, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Why is Clarke “The General” MacArthur kicking Spacek’s ass not on here…
by Codeezy on Mar 4, 2011 12:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I did a study similar to this a while ago across 5 teams with a little different methodology. Instead of taking who scored the next goal, I took the score for the remainder of the period and if the team won the remainder I gave them a plus (and a minus for losing the remainder). Most teams across a full season’s fights ended up in the minus, though a couple finished with +1’s and +2’s. And “winning” the fight had no bearing on the plus/minus. Of course, I can’t find the damn study…
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 4, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions
I’d be interested in seeing how long after most of these goals were scored. I mean, if the next goal is 59:00 after the fight, it might be considered differently than a goal scored :59 after a fight.
This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.
We don't have a winning record?
Donuts - is there anything they can't do?
by Tickle Me Aulie on Mar 4, 2011 12:34 PM EST reply actions
I think you’d want to look at the kind of fight. Comparing a staged fight vs. the Aulie beat-down from last night, for example, one might expect to see a little more influence on the flow of the game for the latter. I’d agree that time is a pretty important factor, too. If there’s a fight in the opening 5min of the game, and then no one scores until the end of the 2nd, it’s hard to suggest the two events are related. Seems like Corsi etc would be the way to go. But as you say, lots of work! I wonder if this is what Brian Burke intended: is truculence measured by how many fights you are in or by how many you win?
by Leaf in Habland on Mar 4, 2011 12:35 PM EST reply actions
no doubt in my mind
I have seen plenty of games and heard plenty of players express how impactful a fight was at a critical time in the game. Regardless of how they faired in the fight. It is always a shot in the arm and reminds the players that they are in a war.
by Johnny Bower's Pokecheck on Mar 4, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions
See that’s the point of this exercise, is there any factual basis behind this believe. There might be a connection, there might not be. Confirmation bias enters into is as well as you’re more likely to remember a game in which a team was down, fought and came back for the win. Whereas you won’t remember the games they were down and came back without a fight. Game in Boston is a good example, team came back and won the game in the third, no fight necessary. Same as the game against the Pens.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
You also don’t remember the hundreds of games where you were trailing, had a fight, and still lost.
"[Phil Kessel]'s as streaky as a flipped coin" - Shift
by The '67 Sound on Mar 4, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed. It’d be interesting to note the score of the game at the time of the fight as well.
Wonder how many of Orr’s fights came when the team was down 1-0 or something like that.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
No one agrees I'm sure
But I would like to see fighting eliminated completely.
The people who say you need it are demonstrably wrong: the Olympics, the NCAA, and most European leagues don’t have fighting. You don’t “need” fighting. Of course, try to get NHL brass to think outside the box.
The corollary is that cheap shots need to be punished much more strenuously. Attempts to injure and head shots need to result in significant sanctions.
by PEI Muscle on Mar 4, 2011 1:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’ve never heard anyone say we “need” fighting per-se, but there’s less reasons to support getting rid of it than there are to keep it. It’s a fun tradition that fans have enjoyed forever, and more people go to the games to see fighting than stay home because of it.
Brett Lebda makes me cry myself to sleep every night
Stoik_Leafs Twitter
by Chris Stoikoff on Mar 4, 2011 1:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
there should be stricter rules to govern it at the very least, a staged fight penalty or something.
What I really want to see is extra punishement for jubo throws and wrestling moves. if you as me, If anything is going to get a player killed in a fight it will be someone getting thrown to the ice head over heels by someone who bit off more than they could chew
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Staged fight – fine the combatants and the coach.
BOOM no more enforcers.
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2011 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a fun tradition that fans have enjoyed forever
That’s pretty subjective. I often change the channel.
more people go to the games to see fighting than stay home because of it
I’m not sure that this is true.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Mar 4, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
more people go to the games to see fighting than stay home because of it
I’m not sure that this is true.
Also can’t be sure if it’s false. A lot of people go to NASCAR to see wrecks, a lot of people also don’t go to NASCAR. Same with the NHL and fighting. Because there is a set number of tickets available for a game, usually with a demand that exceeds supply, you can’t definitively call it one way or the other.
In player polls, they vote overwhelmingly that fighting has a place in hockey and I would tend to imagine that the same holds true for fans, but that the vocal minority are just yelling louder as tends to be the case with just about everything.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
we NEED fighting
now you’ve seen it said.
I think the NHL brass IS thinking outside the box by allowing fighting to be a key component of the game. The rise of combat sports around the world is reassurance that the NHL is on the cutting edge of the new revolution of sports.
So much of what the game of hockey is about is based around the intimidation aspect. It’s something that really drives the sport and separates it from a pure skills competition like say Basketball.
by Johnny Bower's Pokecheck on Mar 4, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
People definitely love it.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
by PPP on Mar 4, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
I believe fighting has a place in hockey if only to eliminate the brawls that happen in other sports. Baseball, basketball, football….whenever there’s beef it turns into a 20 person melee with ejections and suspensions and cheap shots and guys using equipment to injure other players. If two guys have a disagreement, let them settle it man to man and then be done with it. No need for the benches to clear and games delayed for 20 minutes while the refs sort things out.
Players are going to get pissed at one another and want to throw punches; it’s human nature. Hockey is way ahead of the curve, in my opinion, versus the other Big 3 sports in that it has a built in system for letting players get their aggressios out without turning the games into a farce.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
I don’t think we need it but I like it when it’s like Aulie’s fight.
And punishing cheapshots properly would got a long way to undercutting the major (and generally wrong) belief that fighting prevents cheapshots.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
by PPP on Mar 4, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I’m curious which side would oppose removing fighting more, the NHL Office or NHLPA. Most fans either like it or do not hate it enough not to watch hockey and I can’t see the NHPLA being in favor of getting rid of fights.. the whole “code” thing. Has anybody significant from these two groups ever come out against it?
I could do without the fighting, much like the OT penalty shots, just because they are exciting to watch doesn’t mean they should be part of the game.
Bam Bam.- digga digga damm
Intimidation
Although I agree, there is no correlation between fight wins and timely goals….there is something to be said about having those players on the ice and what it can do to the opposition psychologically. For example: Opposing players may be more likely to take cheap frustration penalties (like slashing) on a guy like Orr, and perhaps less likely to enter into a proper scrum with him because of the possible consequences. This can become an advantage for the team with the fighter, but again this has to be weighed against how many stupid penalties he takes, or defensive lapses.
These aren't the droids you're looking for.....
From a player’s perspection, Justin Bourne wrote about how players have little to no fear about fighters on the ice unless they’re another fighter.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Ron Wilson – hey phil! Derek Boogard is out there look out!
Kessel – ok coach!
/Kessel skates around Boogard like a pylon and scores a goal
Kessel – thanks for the heads up Ron!
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Damn that Ron Wilson is a good coach.
This space for rent...
by fair_n_hite_451 on Mar 4, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
How badly could you possibly get beaten up if you’re not fighting back and have teammates around?
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
This bad
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Mar 4, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Sucker punch!!!
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
The answer as always
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
I love this blue with Leafs logo reccing thing.
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Mar 4, 2011 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
Do you guys think fighting helps a team “gel” together? i.e. sticking up for one another after a cheepshot?
Not as much as winning does.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I’m inclined to believe that the countless hours spent at practice, on road trips, on off days, and in team building exercises do far more to help a team come together than doing what every player does in sticking up for their team. They stick up for one another because they’ve come together as a team, not the other way around.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Exactly, like I said it’s more of an effect than a cause.
What makes me excited is that playoffs or not this streak is amazing for our young core moving forward.
Young Leafs team plays hard and beats #2 in the league on the road to stay alive in the playoff hunt with contributions from both MacArthur and Phaneuf.
Or.
Oilers win game they probably shouldn’t against the Blue Jackets while losing their best young player for possibly the season. But don’t worry, I’m sure Eberle and MPS are jacked about all their first round draft picks.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think it does help teams build comradery, but only in certain cases. If you see a teammate who never fights suddenly drop the gloves to protect or stick up for a fellow teammate, you take note of it. I hate to make it sound cliche, but when you see a guy put himself at risk for you or one of your teammates, it matters.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
Good point, but that speaks more to team toughness than to the need for an enforcer.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
and I agree with Skinny above, when he says that fights grow out of team bonding over time. But the fight, the moment where you actually see the guy drop the gloves, is the moment it clicks.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
I think most of us are on the same page here.
Fighting has a place in the game.
Its actual impact on the scoresheet can be difficult to measure
Staged fighting between two enforcers serves little to no purpose and having these guys on the ice is at best a liability and at worst an incident waiting to happen.
Fights that result from a player sticking up for themselves or a teammate is acceptable and probably has some effect on the game or at the very least the dynamics of the team. (so long as it’s for something legitimate not just a solid clean hit)
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Like when Kessel dropped them last year?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
sort of, except Kessel was sticking up for himself. I’m trying to think of a good comparable, but it’s escaping me at the moment.
Negative. I am a meat popsicle.
I am thinking Schenns rookie year when he fought Neil after he tried to knee Stajan
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
It’s just that more than anything things like fighting causing the momentum to shift and teams “gelling” are effects being interpreted as causes after the fact. Everything looks better when a team wins, and everything looks worse when they lose.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Mar 4, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
that wasn’t a fight so much as it was fucking hilarious
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Sometimes I have to shake my head at hockeyfight voting. Subban beat Lupul? Really?
Not Liking Nikolai Kulemin Means You Have No Soul
yeah, there are a whole swath of haters that just vote against the Leaf players no matter what.
and when there is a large fan base like the habs on the other side, combined with disgruntled sens/nucks/whatever fans the numbers add up
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Don’tcha know, Subban will be on Team Canada 2014 ahead of Seabrook and Schenn.
Oh, I'm sorry, just one moment. Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour?
Kaleta beat Schenn?
"Callgirl! She was a callgirl!"
"No Cyril, when they're dead, they're just hookers!"
24/02/11: I was there.
Based on the vote not on reality.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
by PPP on Mar 4, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
since clarke pwning spacek isnt on here, i cant see the credability.
by Codeezy on Mar 4, 2011 7:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
It's not there because it wasn't considered a fight by the refs.
Both players only received roughing calls. From my perspective, and for the purposes of the study, it’s black and white, but I guess the call on the ice is always somewhat subjective.
Oh, you better believe that's a paddling.
Atleast there is clarity, I also see that much more of a fight than Kuli’s because the fight is used for a momentum swing, and those are at both ends of the spectrum imo…I wanted to go out there and score after Clarke ripped that guy a new one…ef the refs
by Codeezy on Mar 5, 2011 12:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
situation where fighting is bad in the run of play?
See Taylor Hall’s season ending high ankle sprain suffered in his first and only fight of the season.
Edmonton’s shutting him down for the remainder.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
he blindsided an enforcer, he was stupid
Rule #20
by JaredFromLondon on Mar 4, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
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