Editor's Note: BCapp is back looking at his save percentage data from last week. This time he ranks it by standard deviations. As before, set your screen to the 'wide' view on the right or the tables will be cut off.
Hello again blogosphere. Some of you may have read my post last week about save percentages above and below league average for each year since the lockout. When I was discussing the data in an FTB a couple of days after, our benevolent overlord Chemmy, pointed out that stating the actual difference from average is kind of useless. What would better let us compare is standard deviation from average.
To not just be a rehash of my last post, this time I looked closer at the best and the worst since the lockout. Come over after the jump for the data
First off I sorted the data by standard deviation which can be found on a spreadsheet here.
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Top 15 |
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Rank |
Player |
Year |
GP |
Shots Against |
Goals Against |
Saves |
Save % |
Difference |
Difference * 1000 |
Standard Deviations |
|
1 |
2010/2011 |
44 |
1401 |
85 |
1316 |
0.9393 |
0.0253 |
25.3042 |
2.1459 |
|
|
2 |
2008/2009 |
54 |
1694 |
114 |
1580 |
0.9327 |
0.0218 |
21.8238 |
2.1109 |
|
|
3 |
2005/2006 |
36 |
1085 |
77 |
1008 |
0.9290 |
0.0245 |
24.5114 |
2.0585 |
|
|
4 |
2006/2007 |
41 |
1028 |
73 |
955 |
0.9290 |
0.0200 |
20.0126 |
1.9006 |
|
|
5 |
2009/2010 |
45 |
1221 |
84 |
1137 |
0.9312 |
0.0188 |
18.8088 |
1.7656 |
|
|
6 |
2005/2006 |
43 |
1202 |
90 |
1112 |
0.9251 |
0.0206 |
20.6039 |
1.7303 |
|
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7 |
2006/2007 |
40 |
1244 |
93 |
1151 |
0.9252 |
0.0163 |
16.2654 |
1.5448 |
|
|
8 |
2005/2006 |
74 |
1951 |
151 |
1800 |
0.9226 |
0.0181 |
18.0829 |
1.5186 |
|
|
9 |
2009/2010 |
69 |
2098 |
150 |
1948 |
0.9285 |
0.0161 |
16.1082 |
1.5121 |
|
|
10 |
2005/2006 |
53 |
1485 |
116 |
1369 |
0.9219 |
0.0174 |
17.3647 |
1.4583 |
|
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11 |
2008/2009 |
59 |
1855 |
138 |
1717 |
0.9256 |
0.0147 |
14.7266 |
1.4244 |
|
|
12 |
2007/2008 |
44 |
1147 |
87 |
1060 |
0.9241 |
0.0134 |
13.3578 |
1.4079 |
|
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13 |
2007/2008 |
33 |
1013 |
78 |
935 |
0.9230 |
0.0122 |
12.2088 |
1.2868 |
|
|
14 |
2010/2011 |
19 |
563 |
40 |
523 |
0.9290 |
0.0149 |
14.9272 |
1.2659 |
|
|
15 |
2005/2006 |
61 |
1984 |
160 |
1824 |
0.9194 |
0.0148 |
14.8340 |
1.2458 |
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Bottom 15 |
||||||||||
|
Rank |
Player |
Year |
GP |
Shots Against |
Goals Against |
Saves |
Save % |
Difference |
Difference * 1000 |
Standard Deviations |
|
221 |
2010/2011 |
39 |
1152 |
123 |
1029 |
0.8932 |
-0.0208 |
-20.7957 |
-1.7636 |
|
|
222 |
2010/2011 |
45 |
1220 |
131 |
1089 |
0.8926 |
-0.0214 |
-21.4019 |
-1.8150 |
|
|
223 |
2005/2006 |
43 |
1158 |
137 |
1021 |
0.8817 |
-0.0228 |
-22.8283 |
-1.9171 |
|
|
224 |
2007/2008 |
54 |
1423 |
153 |
1270 |
0.8925 |
-0.0183 |
-18.3115 |
-1.9300 |
|
|
225 |
2008/2009 |
53 |
1518 |
166 |
1352 |
0.8906 |
-0.0202 |
-20.2343 |
-1.9571 |
|
|
226 |
2010/2011 |
33 |
796 |
87 |
709 |
0.8907 |
-0.0233 |
-23.3213 |
-1.9777 |
|
|
227 |
2007/2008 |
36 |
1026 |
111 |
915 |
0.8918 |
-0.0190 |
-18.9793 |
-2.0004 |
|
|
228 |
2010/2011 |
23 |
620 |
68 |
552 |
0.8903 |
-0.0237 |
-23.7023 |
-2.0100 |
|
|
229 |
2005/2006 |
37 |
873 |
105 |
768 |
0.8797 |
-0.0248 |
-24.7958 |
-2.0824 |
|
|
230 |
2007/2008 |
47 |
1164 |
129 |
1035 |
0.8892 |
-0.0216 |
-21.6169 |
-2.2784 |
|
|
231 |
2008/2009 |
46 |
1208 |
137 |
1071 |
0.8866 |
-0.0243 |
-24.2905 |
-2.3494 |
|
|
232 |
2009/2010 |
34 |
822 |
93 |
729 |
0.8869 |
-0.0255 |
-25.5338 |
-2.3970 |
|
|
233 |
2008/2009 |
33 |
875 |
100 |
775 |
0.8857 |
-0.0252 |
-25.1656 |
-2.4341 |
|
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234 |
2006/2007 |
44 |
1068 |
125 |
943 |
0.8830 |
-0.0260 |
-26.0169 |
-2.4709 |
|
|
235 |
2009/2010 |
32 |
773 |
93 |
680 |
0.8797 |
-0.0327 |
-32.7056 |
-3.0702 |
|
A couple things I notice:
- Boston gets great goaltending. Three years in a row their number one goaltender's save percentage makes it into the top 5 since the lockout!
- I don't care how few games Rask played last year, he deserved the Calder nomination over Jimmy Howard. He was the top goalie last year and 5th best since the lockout and he played in more than half of their games. (Howard was 5th in last year and 25th overall).
- Related to the last post: anyone who believes Reimer will be up for the Calder will likely be sorely surprised. Rask played 45 games and if Reimer plays every single one left he'll have played 38 games. To be fair if we make the playoffs on his back that single accomplishment is more than any single thing that Rask did last year.
- This always comes up. Toskala's goaltending last year was the worst since the lockout. At over 3 standard deviations below league average that would set him in the bottom 0.3% or so. Awesome. Look how much higher Denis' second worse was. Or the difference between Denis and Hedberg and Toskala and Denis. A league of his F****** own.
- Gustavsson is having a terrible year. Considering he started strong over the first month in a half and only played until mid January, he played absolutely atrocious in those two months in between.
- Tomas Vokoun is awesome. The fact that he hasn't been able to drag the Panthers into the playoffs says a lot about those teams.
- The best full year of goaltending the Leafs have gotten since the lockout? Vesa Toskala in 2007/2008. 174th place. 66 GP. 0.904 save percentage. 0.71 standard deviations BELOW average. (Note Giggy's half and half year, last year ranks 156. Woot. (/sarcasm))
- It wasn't that long ago that Giggy was an elite goal tender. His 2007/2008 numbers rank 17th since the lockout.
- Do you know what comforts me about Toskala's numbers last year? Leclaire's were only 3 spots better and Ottawa was stuck with him for another year.
- While a fanpost I did a while ago shows how important drafting is in getting elite centers it is not nearly as important in getting elite goal tending. Thomas-9th round. Huet-7th round. Backstrom-UFA. Rask-1st round (but late). Hasek-10th round. C. Mason-5th round. Kiprusoff-5th round. Miller-5th round. Lundqvist-7th round. Vokoun-9th round. Ellis-2nd round (but 60th overall). Conklin-undrafted UFA. Reimer-4th round.
- Dan Ellis makes both the best and the worst list. Consistent isn't he?



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