Center of Attention : Brad Richards Edition

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This is a list of guys who (at the age of 23-30 and between 1995-2005) scored between 0.85-1.14 ppg (Richards’ low and high for that age period).

If you look at people who did it more than once they probably make good comparables. By looking at point per game I think you get a more accurate look at production and by putting a cap on it you take out guys who were a step above him (notice Thornton only makes this list once).

This leaves us with the following players:

Jason Allison, Pavol Demitra, Sergei Federov, Scott Gomez, Saku Koivu, Eric Lindros, Mike Modano, Peter Nedved, Jeremy Roenick, Joe Sakic, Jozef Stumpel, Mats Sundin, Pierre Turgeron, Doug Weight, and Alexei Yashin.

If I find the time I will look at their points per game and see how much it decreases (on average and median) after 30.

Cheers

The lists include some NHL legends (Lindros, Sundin, Datsyuk, Forsberg) as well as cautionary tales (Brendan Morrison, Rolston, Lang, Nylander, Gomez).

I still think we would have been well advised to have picked up Morrison for this year. 43 pts in 66gp for 725k, GVT was 8.6, and he plays against roughly the same level of competition as Kulemin and Lupul. Am I missing something? Why is he a cautionary tale?

BTW, nice work all around – this should be frontpage’d.

Looking at the data provided by you (and BCapp), it’s pretty hard not to become a Richards apologist.

Personally, I’d rather Burke not go after a #1C (ala New York Yankees-style) and just let the young’n’s develop, (even at the NHL-level), but if he’s going to go out and sign a #1C, he could do a whole lot worse than Richards.

I suppose another layer to this is the mentoring that Richards could provide to the young(er) players.

If we sign a 30 year old to be a top center and ‘Veteran Leadership’ I would be fine with that – considering we wont have half a dozen 33-36 year olds on this team.

If he gets him, great. If he doesn’t, I hope he shys away from signing some old and busted player past his prime. Better to stick with what you have or try and swing a trade than get the wrong player in FA.

Without knowing exactly what kind of term or cap hit we’d be looking at, I’m on the fence about Richards. We’ll see what figures you come up with in the next post.

I don’t like these Kovy style contracts that vice grip teams balls

Laich seems more plausible if the Caps don’t do well.
Dubinsky would be a dream, I love that guy :D

Think of the poor NHL goalies – with Richards + Kessel on same line they will face 600 shots. (not that shots can be added like that of course).

I voted No. I’d rather give up assets in a trade than sign Brad Richards. Age, injury history, potential financial commitment all major issues for me.

I suck at HTML.

I wouldn’t want him on anything more than a 3yr deal, which he’d be stupid to sign.

The basic problem for me is that Brad Richards isn’t a true #1C. To me, a #1C is a guy who not only scores, but also can match or outplay the opposition’s best line. That is NOT Brad Richards. Last year he played tissue-soft minutes (10th in corsi rel QoC among Stars’ forwards, 53.5% Ozone%) and still wasn’t able to control the play (-0.1 corsi rel). His ability to avoid penalties is nice but he doesn’t draw many either.

Add in the concussion risk and to me, Richards is worth no more than $6MM over three years. And there’s no chance in hell he signs here for that.

So what would I do? Be patient. Try to trade for Stastny. Try to trade for Weiss. If all else fails, bring in a stopgap (someone similar to Morrison last year: cheap vet who can play #2C behind Grabbo) until we see what Colborne or even Kadri might be capable of. But don’t shoot your wad on an aging, one-way player.

It’s also interesting to note that he was on the Anaheim cup winning team with Burke too….

Burke said he doesn’t want anyone winning the Lady Byng. Richards is a former Lady Byng winner so clearly no signing (sarcasm).

1. The biggest issue is the length and cap hit of the contract. He will ask for a long term contract with a gigantic cap hit and an NTC because the market (Glen Sather) will give it to him. Unless he gives Toronto a huge ‘I want to play here’ discount which is unlikely given that he has not hinted at all at wanting to go here, we are not going to get him at the ‘right price’.

2. What you see is not always what you get. Players know when it’s a UFA year for them and this gives them incentive to play their best hockey. Add to this, his recent concussion and you can never be sure if he will be the same player next year as he was this year.

3. Age. Assuming we don’t sign JSG, Brad Richards will be the oldest player on the team. This is important if we want to be competitive for the next 20 years instead of making the second round the next 4 years and then going back to the bottom of the basement. As much as I’d like to think that we can be legitimate contenders next year, realistically speaking we are 4-5 years away from contending for the cup assuming Burke’s plan works out. Will Brad Richards still be playing at a high level at that time, or will he just be a contract by then?

4. Assuming that he does sign here for the ‘right price’ and he somehow pulls out a ‘Selanne’ when we are ready to contend, I’m not sure he’s the right fit here. Based on the data you provided, he will be 2nd on the team in shots taken and I’m not exactly sure that’s the type of player we want centering Kessel. There’s only enough shots to go around so I’m not exactly sure if that will work out. I am in no way denying that he will make a positive impact on the team, but is he the best available player who will provide the most impact?

So if not Richards then who do we pursue?

If Colorado decides to blow the team up and start all over again, then Paul Stastny will probably be on the market. He is in the same age group as most of the team, he is a proven PPG player, and he is one of the premiere playmakers in the league. More importantly, we have what the Avs want in case they do decide to put Stastny on the block which are picks and prospects. So for me, the ideal player to get will be Stastny.

In my honest opinion, Chicago, as it’s built right now, is not a legitimate threat to win the cup. Unless Ben Smith, Marc Kruger and John Scott significantly improve overnight, they will have to trade away some of their ‘core’ to acquire depth players most likely one of their top 4 forwards. What do you guys think of the possibility of this happening and if it does should we try to acquire one of those forwards?

Paul Kariya! 1YR deal.

I’m still undecided, but man, GREAT post!

If we’re going to throw out ridiculous contracts for long terms, I’d give Steven Stamkos an offer sheet.

Here’s something people need to realize. Since 1990, there have only been 18 skaters to post over 70 points on four or more occasions after their 30th birthday. Here’s the list:

Oates (8), Alfredsson (7), Francis, Gretzky, Sakic, Sundin (6), Bourque, Hull, Jagr, Messier, St. Louis (5), Gilmour, Kozlov, Lemieux, Modano, Selanne, Shanahan, Yzerman (4).

That means for Richards to enter that group, he’d have to post another 4 seasons of 70+ points. I don’t give great odds on that considering the players on that list.

So despite the fact that Richards has posted 8 consecutive years on a pace that would put him over 70 points, I don’t think he’s far enough above that pace to be certain he continues to do so. He also has faced SOFT competition to get there.

He just isn’t worth the damn money. And I’m sorry… ignoring +/- when you plan on playing him with Kessel is idiotic.

I spent 5 minutes trying to figure out why Brad May is returning to the stars when he never even played for them.

I didn’t even smoke today.

Do you call all your Pieces – Center of Attention – to start off with ?

What is the reason for that ? -

No Particular Reason ?
Its your Trademark ?

Just Curious ?

Well. I’ve held off making a judgment call for a while, but, barring the availability of a good, young player, I think we should make a play for Richards. Naturally, I make that statement with the caveat that the contract isn’t too ridiculous, in terms of either length or cap hit.