FanPost

Another Look at Leaf Goaltending This Year

Below I take a look at leafs goaltending on special teams and shot distance.

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First off a general over view of the three leaf goalies compared to League Average and Best in League numbers.


TOI min GAA AvgShD (ft) Shot/Game Shot/60min SV% Goal Diff/Game
James Reimer 2080.1 2.6 37.3 30.7 32.7 0.921 0.0
JS Giguere 1633.0 2.9 35.6 23.6 28.5 0.900 0.63
Jonas Gustavsson 1242.1 3.3 34.6 27.0 30.0 0.890 0.91
Team Average
2.9 35.9 27.1 30.4 0.904 0.51
League Average
2.6 34.7 28.0 29.9 0.911 0.28
Best in League
2.0 38.3 22.9 25.3 0.938 -0.52

AvgShD = Average Shot Distance in feet
Shot/60 min = Shots on net normalized by the TOI (instead of game played)
Goal Diff/Game = The number of goals expected if that goalie was starting in place of Reimer
League Average is calculated on a simple average basis for goalies playing more than 10 games
Best in League represents the best team/goalie stat for that value.  

The leafs in front of Reimer not only allow more shots per game but also allow shots from a further distance than the league average.   The leafs seem good at preventing close in shots in general for all leaf goalies but allow more shots on net with Reimer.   The higher number of shots Reimer faces (compared to jonas or JS)  maybe a result that the leafs have the lead with Reimer in net and forces the opposition to be more offensive in nature instead of falling into a defensive shell.   Note that New Jersey team allows the fewest goals per game or 60min.  And Tampa Bay does best keeping shots furthest from the net.  

Starting Giggy instead of Reimer would yield an expected 0.63 more goals against (based on 30 shots per game) and Jonas almost 1 additional goal (at 0.91) compared to Reimer per game.  The average league goalie would allow 0.28 more goals per game compared to Reimer or 1 goal more every 4 games and Tim Thomas would allow 1 goal fewer every two games compared to Reimer.

Next a look at special team goaltending performance.

Special Teams ESSV% %Sh ES PPSV% % Sh PP SHSV% %Sh SH GD SH/Game
James Reimer 0.933 82.5% 0.897 3.4% 0.855 14.0% 0
JS Giguere 0.910 81.6% 0.955 2.8% 0.835 15.6% 0.1
Jonas Gustavsson 0.910 82.3% 0.864 3.5% 0.784 14.2% 0.36
Team Average 0.918 82.2% 0.905 3.3% 0.825 14.5% 0.15
League Average 0.919 80.5% 0.914 2.8% 0.870 16.7% -0.08
Best in League 0.947
0.973
0.925
-0.35

ESSV% = Even strength save percentage
PPSV% = Power Play Save Percentage for the goalie when his team is on PP
SHSV% = Team short handed save percentage for the goalie when his team is shorthanded.
%Sh ES = % of recorded shot of the total shots on net that were at even strength
%Sh PP = % of recorded shot that were directed at the goalie when the team was on a PP
%Sh ES = % of recorded shot that were directed at the goalie when the team was on short handed
GD SH/Game = Goal differential per game when the team was shorthanded with a different goalie in net. 

Roughly 80% of shots are directed at a team's net when at even strength, 17% when the team is short handed and 3% when the team is on the power play .  The leafs allow more shots at even strength with Reimer (or other leaf goalie) in net than the league average and tend to allow more shots on net when on the power play.   What is more surprising is they allow fewer shot on net when they shorthanded (but I should normalize this for penalties taken to make a more definitive statement).   

Reimer seems to excel at even strength goaltending approaching Tim Thomas statistics and is well above the league average.  Both giggy and monster are not too far off the league average at ES but are below average nonetheless.   I'm going to ignore goaltending when the leafs are on the power play because that is small percentage of shots (but will note that all leaf goalies are below the the league average and monster's numbers look horrid).   When the leafs are shorthanded all three leaf goalie's are below the league average with Reimer being the best of the tree.   Note the best goalie in the league when shorthanded is Vokoun with an amazing 0.925 save percentage. It is worth mentioning again the leafs allow fewer shots than most team on the power play and the save percentage is lower than league average. I will let reader's speculate as to why.   Finally in terms of goal differential, Reimer allows 1 more goal every 12 games or so compared to the league average on the power play.  Giggy allowed 1 more PP goal every 10 games compared Reimer and the monster 1 more PP goal every 3 games compared to Reimer.  By contrast Vokoun allowed 1 fewer PP goal every 3 games compared to Reimer.

The last view of goaltending is by shot distance.

By Distance SV%<15ft %Sh<15ft 15<SV%<30ft 15<%Sh<30ft 30<SV%<45ft 30<%Sh<45ft %Other Sh
James Reimer 0.854 18% 0.863 24% 0.944 28% 30%
JS Giguere 0.810 22% 0.855 26% 0.922 28% 25%
Jonas Gustavsson 0.771 23% 0.877 24% 0.919 30% 24%
Team Average 0.812 21% 0.865 24% 0.928 29% 27%
League Average 0.813 22% 0.879 26% 0.947 26% 26%
Best in League 0.870
0.927
0.977

SV%<15ft = goalie's save percentage on shots less than 15 feet
Sh<15ft = number of shots of the total that are less than 15 feet 
%Other Sh= number of shot that are greater than 45 feet (or missed by the shot collector

22% of shots are less than 15 feet, 26% percent from the other 3 shooting areas.  As mentioned earlier, the leafs allow a farther shooting distance on Reimer (more shots are skewed to longer distances than league average).   Reimer excels at close in goaltending and is well above the league average with 0.854 compared to an average of 0.813 and trailing Corey Schneider who posts a 0.870 save percentage in less than 15 foot area.  It is not surprising that save percentage is lower in this area and the leafs do a good job at ensuring their are not too many scoring chances close in (compared to league average) even though this is where Reimer is strongest in net.  

In the 15 to 30 feet shot area, Reimer has a poor save percentage (bottom half of the league) and is second best on the team.   Crawford excels in this area just beating out Thomas.   And in the 30 to 45 feet distance Thomas post the best save percentage with Reimer posting the best save percentage on the leafs but lower than the league average. Beyond 45 feet most goalies achieve 100% save percentage with only a few challenging Toskala in this area.

Summary

  • Reimer is exceptionally strong goalie in the <15 feet shot area and at even strength
  • Reimer has a below average save % on the PP and in the 15-30 ft shot area (are they related?)
  • The Leafs are effective at keeping average shot distance far from the net
  • Goaliesi_medium

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