Narrative Busters
by JP Nikota on Jun 11, 2011 6:59 AM EDT
in From The Branches
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PrintOh, the Bruins have shattered the Canucks' confidence. Luongo is on a cold streak, and may not wake up until next season. The Canucks' "D" is too worn out and downtrodden to fend off the balanced attack of physical Boston forwards. Vancouver just doesn't have any gas left in the tank. Right? Well, maybe, maybe not. As Eric Duhatschek notes, the Roberto Luongo bandwagon has filled up again.
But by game’s end, after the Canucks gutted out a 1-0 victory to take a 3-2 series lead in the Stanley Cup final, there were another 18,000 or so true believers who’d rejoined the Roberto Luongo fan club - and probably lots more on the streets of Vancouver, which turned into one big giant block party for last night’s riveting contest.
It may well be true that they were deflated after two consecutive losses in Boston, and that their defense corps was hurting, or even that injuries to stars like Ryan Kesler were slowing them down. The truth of the matter is, these narratives aren't dictating the course of the whole series.
So far, home ice advantage appears to be the real difference, but even then, who's to say that this is the case for this series? Certainly, teams with the home ice advantage have won more often historically - but isn't it more likely that the root cause of their success is the fact they these teams have been more successful over the course regular season, and not just in a seven-game series? Certainly, if you want to evaluate teams, you'd opt for the larger sample size of eighty-two games, rather than seven.
The Canucks have always been the odds-on favorite to win the Cup in this series, and those tough losses in Beantown didn't actually change that. Here's hoping that the B's can pull it off, but I have a hunch that the Canucks are going to win their first Cup in franchise history in Game 7 at home.
Links after the jump.
Canucks a win away from clinching the Cup
Recap from Matthew Sekeres at the Globe and Mail
The essential Max Lapierre performance
Do you need another reason to despise this Canuck team? I didn't think so, but you've got one anyway.
Winnipeg's arena meets most NHL standards as is
Of course, a few extra thousand seats wouldn't hurt the pockets of the owners
Habs re-sign Mathieu Darche
Headline says it all
New Down Goes Brown
Why you can stop hating the Bruins and Canucks
Tweetin' Prospects
Jon S, over at Puckin' Eh, has a few thoughts on potential draft choices for the Leafs
Back in '62
Michael Langlois remembers a Leafs-related momentum shift
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I just thought I might add Hockey Prospectus Top 100 NHL Draft Prospects to the list of links.
It is by no means a new list, however in case some haven’t see it, it’s very interesting. I wonder whether their method of calculations is helpful when trying to figure out where people will be drafted as their predictions are quite different. They add in statistical comparisons which have Marc MacNeil (taken 9th overall) compared to Josh Holden.He was highly touted but seemed like he just missed the opportunity to try and make a name for himself in the post-lockout NHL. Nice guy though, played hockey for a year with his son.
For those of you who haven’t seen it, enjoy!
"WHAM WHAM...KABAM...KABAM... A DOUBLE KABAM! AND IT'S A DOUBLE DION!" - Vintage Pierre McGuire
Maxim Lapierre is a very very bad man!
LTWW
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 11, 2011 8:36 AM EDT reply actions
I’ve become hypnotized!
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by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 11, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions
One can only imagine how many broken bones there would have been in Vancouver from people jumping off the bandwagon had they lost last night.
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jun 11, 2011 8:43 AM EDT reply actions
Hard to believe
a team could suffer so many injuries, play hard every night, put up with stupid 5 straight penalties nights while Boston runs interference in their zone 24/7 with nary a call, and still be one win away from the Cup. Who else could’ve suffered the injuries, especially to the D, that Vancouver did and not just have a great season but make it to the Finals?
Oh, I’m sure Detroit would be in the Finals, or SJ, or Nashville, if they had 7-9 defensive injuries to deal with all season long. Vancouver has earned their way near, no nights where the other team got 7 straight uncalled for penalties, where the ice was softened to slow down their forwards (how many of you know teams do that, teams like Boston?), no nights where the other team lost 2 D men with 2 D men already on the shelf.
Wow.
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 12, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
nice of you to show up for your daily drive bye of bullshit
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 12, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
depressing.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Jim Hughson embodies everything I hate about Canada.
by Future_considerations on Jun 11, 2011 8:49 AM EDT reply actions
What a weird series. Vancouver’s 3 wins have each been by a 1 goal margin (1-0, 3-2 OT, 1-0) and Boston’s two wins have been by 7 goals (8-1) and 4 goals (4-0). So series scoring is Vancouver 6 goals, Boston 14 goals. I’d have to imagine there are not many instances where such lopsided scoring ends up with the team on the receiving end of the red lights having a winning record.
History. Leafs. Drawing. In no particular order!
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by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 11, 2011 9:07 AM EDT reply actions
Boston could have won any of those 3 games in Vancouver. If only Thomas didn’t suck suck bad during those games.
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jun 11, 2011 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
yes
it’s a bit weird that the team with the goalie who surrendered 1, 3, 1, 0, 1 goals would be losing the Cup Finals… while the team with the goalie that surrendered 0, 2, 8, 4, 0 would be winning… of course… two 1-0 shutouts help a lot.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Vancouver
really doesn’t deserve to win the series on the basis of how they’ve actually played as far as I’m concerned.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Outside of the two blowouts, have they actually been outpalyed? I haven’t examined the stats (chances F/A, corsi,etc) in all that detail, but I think from what I’ve seen the Canucks have been the better team in the three games in Vancouver, and the score may have been higher were it not for Thomas.
In the games played in Vancouver, Boston has out-shot the Canucks 97-92, but the Canucks have out-scored the Bruins 4-2.
Tim Thomas SV% in Vancouver – .956
Roberto Luongo SV% in Vancouver – .979
That’s basically the difference right there. For all the criticism of Luongo, he’s been outstanding when playing in Vancouver.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s cause he walks along the sea walk before the game. Apparently there is no sea near Boston for him to walk along.
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jun 11, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
so has Thomas, but boston’s offense has been invisible
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 11, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they’ve had lots of good chances and for whatever reason Luongo’s been better at stopping them in Vancouver than in Boston.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, Luongo has been good, no denying that, but Thomas has been better
Bostons offense just seems to have much less sustained pressure and about half the scoring chances per game in vancouver
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 11, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
because
of the matchups…. I said this earlier.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with that as I think the teams have been pretty even and then there is the Luongo home equation brought up already. I think the games in Boston got away from Vancouver, particularly with the Rome hit (it was a pretty even game until that point). They tried to play a tough dirty game with a tough dirty team and got pounded for it. They just didn’t try that at home and probably would have had a good chance to win a game in Boston if they didn’t try the antics that came up after the Rome hit.
It’ll be a very different team on Monday that I expect a very close game 6.
The one thing that has been atrocious is the powerplays, but then Boston’s hasn’t been that much better.
"Deserve's got nothing to do with it"
Clint Eastwood in “Unforgiven”
by Jack rides ducks on Jun 11, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
"It's a helluva thing, killing a penalty"
Mike Eastwood
Either you have an enviable memory, or a pitiable life, to know nothing of regret.
- Sten, of the Qunari
by GreatKingRat on Jun 12, 2011 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
To keep the “narrative busting” theme going, a brief fanpost on how often Tomas Kaberle shoots the puck.
This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.
If only
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 1:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 10 recs
,
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 11, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
rec’d
i’m so glad the modern era has given us things like this.
Fuck you healy
Certified Grabbo Lover
Jim Hughson embodies everything I hate about Canada.
by Future_considerations on Jun 11, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I know everyone here hates/ wants the Nucks to lose
But you’ve got to love the public shitting on Mike Milbury by the players
"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."
“My son told me a man was making fun of me and Uncle Danny on TV. I said that can’t be true because that’s what usually happens in kindergarten. That’s what happened. Sometimes grown-ups have low self-esteem and get on guys and say stupid stuff.
“I think he has to be happy with his career,” Henrik added. “He did a great job on Long Island. I’m sure he is happy with that.”
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
“Who cares what he thinks,” said Vancouver goalie Cory Schneider. "If he’d been their general manager he would have traded them in their first year anyway, like he did with everyone else. “One guy is a Hart Trophy winner and the other is up for it this year and we have complete faith and confidence in these guys. Who cares what he thinks?”
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If there’s one thing that brings fans of all stripes together, it’s Milbury-bashing.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I was F@#K the Nucks at first.
Now I’m leaning towards f@#k the Bruins. I don’t know. Maybe I just don’t care either way. Ofcourse I don’t , I’m a LEAFER.
Everyone on Nucks’ case for all the embellishments, and dirty play. So why change now? If it pisses the Bruins off , just keep doing it. Good psychology on the Nucks part last night.
by Jack rides ducks on Jun 11, 2011 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
Everyone on Nucks’ case for all the embellishments, and dirty play. So why change now? If it pisses the Bruins off , just keep doing it. Good psychology on the Nucks part last night.
it also pisses off everyone that’s not stupid or from vancouver (same thing?) and it just isn’t good hockey. i guess if they want they can keep going, but they’re an awful bunch of woosies and whiners
Popped a Colboner - Certified Joe Colborne Fanboy
03/08/2011 - I saw THE Wookie score his 1st NHL goal.
03/19/2011 - Watched Kadri's 1st NHL goal from the West Bank
Twitter me this.
by happiergilmore on Jun 11, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
plus
Certified Grabbo lover. GET WELL SOON, SID
The universe moves depending on where Sidney Crosby is on the ice - IHeartPenguins
"I love lots of guys." -leaflover4ever
by Leafer87 on Jun 11, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
I still love him.
Certified Grabbo Lover
Jim Hughson embodies everything I hate about Canada.
by Future_considerations on Jun 11, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Who doesn’t? Except Bruins fans apparently
Certified Grabbo lover. GET WELL SOON, SID
The universe moves depending on where Sidney Crosby is on the ice - IHeartPenguins
"I love lots of guys." -leaflover4ever
by Leafer87 on Jun 11, 2011 8:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have a feeling that like many Leafs fans, they’ll miss him more once he’s gone.
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by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 11, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
When I said "everyone"
I should have stated “myself included”.
It was just funny to watch the Nucks continue they’re sleazy tactics last night in the face of so much criticism.
by Jack rides ducks on Jun 11, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
and the SLAPSTICK,
finger taunting following the burrows biting incident is just classic comedy. I haven’t laughed so hard during a playoff game in a long long time.
by Jack rides ducks on Jun 11, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m surprised Vancouver hasn’t gotten a diving penalty yet, since they could easily be called for it several times a game. The weird thing about it is, as they showed last night, they can actually play a hard-checking, physical style of hockey. So it’s not that they’re weak or timid, it’s that they’re cheaters.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
You mean like Lapierre skating all the way to the bench doubled over trying to sell a stabbing.
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jun 11, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, with Chara, Marchand, Thomas, Recchi, and more, ‘dirty’ and ‘diving’ go hand in hand, not that most Vancouver haters want to hear it.
oh shut up
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 12, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The one area where I think home ice advantage really does help is in getting matchups. Claude Julien is really big on trying to get the right matchups out there; I’m sure we’ve all seen road games where as soon as the Bruins get the puck, one defender skates to the bench and Chara comes on. Vigneault also really likes to use specific players in specific situations, but I don’t get the impression that he line matches to the same degree that Julien does.
I do think this is one reason that Boston looks better at home. Julien gets matchups that work better for the Bruins, like having Bergeron take faceoffs agaisnt Kesler, or getting Chara and Seidenberg out against the Sedins for defensive zone faceoffs.
but when Vancouver
has the advantage of matchups, they still can’t score… meanwhile the Bruins seem to get more offense when they avoid the checking of the Canucks.
In conclusion, the Canucks depth sucks… the end.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I have yet to see
the Sedin’s do much of anything in the series… at home or away.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
to me it seems more of the Bruins forgetting how to score than the canucks suddenly remembering how to defend
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 11, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
well
I think the matchups do make a difference…. for instance in Game 5 Krejci and Lucic played against Bieksa and Edler for 10 minutes of ice time. In Game 4 they played against Bieksa and Edler for about half that.
that’s a big shift frankly.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they’ve done a great job of controlling the puck in the offensive zone pretty frequently, but like everyone else, they’re running up against one of the greatest goaltending performances in NHL history. Like, if they were playing at the same level against league average goaltending that line would probably have 8-10 goals this series.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
At even strength in game 5 they had 6 shots saved, and 6 blocked… Thomas isn’t the guy blocking the shots.
In game 4 though they had like 15 shots on goal, and 4 blocked. They showed up there, but got shut out… that’s major.
In game 3 they had 3-6 shots and 1 blocked.
So yeah game 4 they played well but the other games? not particularly.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
scoring the first goal may have some advantages perhaps.
by Jack rides ducks on Jun 11, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
They scored 1st
with 19 seconds left in Game 1, they scored 1st in game 2 but ended in OT and having to win 11 seconds in there.
Game 3 and 4 were dominated by Boston and scoring 1st didn’t mean much.
Game 5 they scored first with less than half a period left in the game.
Scoring 1st hasn’t had much to do with anything frankly. Getting shut outs seems a bit more relevant to Vancouver.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
so basically...
1. score more goals than other team
2. win game
3. PROFIT
elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly
Whoah, that’s some sportsnet level analysis right there. You could be the next Kypreos.
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
and yet another
lightning storm is about to hit Toronto… yay.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
awesome, love me some lightening storms
Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me
by JaredFromLondon on Jun 11, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure whenever we have lightning storms, Boston’s won the next game o.O
Certified Grabbo lover. GET WELL SOON, SID
The universe moves depending on where Sidney Crosby is on the ice - IHeartPenguins
"I love lots of guys." -leaflover4ever
Here's my advice to the Bruins
1. Play Seguin and Kaberle more
2. Score more goals than the Canucks
3. Win
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
Not sure how much playing Seguin more would help. He looks kind of like Kadri out there – lots of speed and puck-handling ability, but prone to turnovers and not great defensively.
They should definitely be playing Kaberle more, though. When you’re having trouble scoring, you should want a guy who makes excellent breakout passes on the ice pretty often.
by Draglikepull on Jun 11, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Dumb question
Where do you get Corsi etc stats for a particular game, for example, last night’s game?
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
timeonice.com
and you need the game number from NHL.com
for instance… shot info can be found here:
http://timeonice.com/shots1011.php?gamenumber=30316 << just change the game number (which is located on the NHL game sheets, or comes up when you hover your mouse pointer over the game’s date on the list.
To see the head-to-head ice time you can go here:
http://www.timeonice.com/H2H1011.html?GameNumber=30316&submit=Go << and again just change the game number.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
and if you just go to
timeonice.com you can type in the game number to see the shift charts, which lets you look at linemates, opposition, and ice time on a bar graph, that you can move around.
The site was originally set up by Vic Ferrari, of irreverentoilfans … bless him and his stats.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
and it's not
dumb as questions go particularly… I don’t really know that many people that even want that info, let alone know where to get it themselves.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Steve! I knew how to get the shift times from that site but not the shot info, much appreciated.
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 4:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Where can you get cumulative corsi stats?
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, here
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
yes
in general
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What are your other indispensable sites?
I would add:
1. http://www.dobberhockey.com/ – line pairings
2. http://www.hockey-reference.com/ – basically everything, including splits
3. http://www.nhl.com/ – general
4. http://www.capgeek.com/ – cap and celery info
5. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/ – playoff predictions
6. http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/ – all transactions that ever happened in hockey
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
For general hockey info:
1. http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy – especially Bourne’s Blog
2. http://www.cbc.ca/sports/blogs/elliottefriedman/ – probably the best analyst on the CBC broadcast
3. http://www.downgoesbrown.com/ – for the lulz
Don't follow me on twitter: @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Jun 11, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd add
http://www.eliteprospects.com
http://www.hockeydb.com
http://hockeyspy.blogspot.com
http://thegoalieguild.com
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
oh and
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Jun 11, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
worst stuff in the world
elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly
It’s mostly water, do you hate water as well? ;)
History. Leafs. Drawing. In no particular order!
My Portfolio
by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 11, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m mostly water
elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly
So what you’re saying is that you’re an emo.
History. Leafs. Drawing. In no particular order!
My Portfolio
by CanadianMaple09 on Jun 12, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
you forgot handsome and dashing
LTWW
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 11, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Well….duh
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 12, 2011 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
There are actual people that publicly admit to be an Isles fan? They must be icing a semi decent team next yr. Make room on the bandwagon.
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jun 12, 2011 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions
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