The truth about Tomas Kaberle

by birky on Jun 2, 2011 10:00 AM EDT in Maple Leafs Analysis

There seems to be a general consensus within the hockey community that Tomas Kaberle has been a disappointment in Boston. Specifically, we're talking about his production on the man advantage. In twenty-four games with the Bruins, Kaberle amassed a measly three assists on the powerplay. He has since equaled that amount In eighteen postseason games. But there is one interesting truth about Kaberle: he has never, save for one season, been an elite powerplay specialist. Continue after the jump for more...

In 2005-06, the first season post-lockout and following significant alterations to how the league called penalties, Tomas Kaberle amassed 51 points on the powerplay. He was first in the NHL for powerplay production amongst defensemen and fifth among all NHLers. '05-06 was a special season for Kaberle and his defensive partner, Bryan McCabe. Not only did they drive the second best powerplay in the NHL, but they each set personal highs in point production. Conveniently forgotten is that the first season following the NHL lockout was an aberration concerning the number of penalties called league wide.

In 2003-2004, the Leafs had 373 powerplay opportunities. In 2005-2006, that number was 501. Assuming (for the sake of argument) that all powerplay opportunities last two minutes, that increase equals an additional three minutes of powerplay time per game, which went exclusively to Kaberle and McCabe. For reference, these are Kaberle's PP point totals and PP mins/game for each season of at least 65 games:

Season	PP points	D Rank	PP mins/gm
1999/2000	15	32	03:04
2000/2001	17	31	04:05
2001/2002	20	17	04:28
2002/2003	19	24	04:29
2003/2004	10	58	03:20
2005/2006	51	1	07:32
2006/2007	30	17	05:49
2007/2008	30	9	05:21
2009/2010	25	8	04:29
2010/2011	25	10	04:05

How much of a factor did the strict officiating in 2005-06 impact Kaberle's point totals? A stunning 76% of his points on the year came with the man advantage. That is a huge jump from the 45-55% range of Kaberle's other post-lockout seasons.

Tomas Kaberle is a fantastic hockey player. But one thing he is not, nor has ever been (save one season) is an elite point producer on the powerplay. '05-06 was a statistical outlier for Kaberle brought on by a change in officiating that has since normalized. And due to this one great performance, the player has wrongly earned a reputation as something he is not. Personally, I feel Kaberle has gotten a bad rap since the trade that sent him to Boston. He is what he has always been: a solid puck-moving defenseman who's a bit on the soft side but always steady with the puck. The question should not be "Why has Kaberle struggled to produce on the powerplay in Boston?" The correct question is: "Why did the Bruins think Kaberle would be a bigger factor on special teams than his career numbers suggest?"

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Tomas Kaberle’s corsi rel numbers suggest a player who is seriously driving the puck in the right direction for Boston. This analysis probably should have included zone shift and those numbers.

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by Chemmy on Jun 2, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions

I would also like to know how Kaberle’s numbers in the first post-lockout season compared to others. Did any other players see such a substantial increase?
Solid work though.

The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 2, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

One presumes Bryan McCabe got a bit of a bump that year as well

Professional cusser causer.

by T is for Truculence on Jun 2, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Look at Tucker’s numbers:



Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	GC	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI

2003-04	28	TOR	NHL	64	21	11	32	14	4	68	12	8	1	2	146	14.4	1142	17:50

2005-06	30	TOR	NHL	74	28	33	61	24	-12	100	10	18	0	4	189	14.8	1305	17:38

Oh hai

by theninjagreg on Jun 2, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh Tucker. That cross-crease tap-in is still a thing of beauty.

Professional cusser causer.

by T is for Truculence on Jun 2, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Five defensemen in 05-06 scored at least 40 points on the PP. No one scored more than 38 in 03-04. In 06-07 only three players hit 40 points, one in 07-08, and zero by 08-09.

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by birky on Jun 2, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

My only thought it that since league wide PP numbers were up and only 5 D men put up over 40 points that his numbers are a combination of increased opportunity and getting hot at the right time.

The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 2, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I think so. It was certainly a special season for those two. But Kaberle & McCabe also led the NHL in PP TOI/game. They were getting a full minute more per game on the powerplay than Nik Lidstrom.

Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.

by birky on Jun 2, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I irrationally believe that team would have been special in the playoffs.

The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP

by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 2, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

can you

just divide their total PP/TOI by 60 and then divide the pts by that number to give us a pts/60 on the PP in 2005-06 for the sake of comparison?

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

kaberle

led the NHL in total TOI that year.

He played 4:31 a night on the PK also.

He was a far more complete D man that season than he is now.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

and he played

54 more minutes on the PP than any other D man in the NHL… Visnovsky was 2nd in the league with 564:57, he had 618:18.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I posted

most of these in a discussion of Kaberle last week.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I also

examined his game by game corsi, and his corsi has been dropping in every series of the playoffs. His numbers were greatly skewed by a +19 game against Montreal where he had his highest minutes played total of the playoffs so far.

He hasn’t been as good as his Corsi numbers indicate.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Should have beaten birky to the punch and made an entire post of it.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Jun 2, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

yep

It’s funny how fanposts get more attention than random stats listed over 15 comments in an 800-comment thread.

WE MISS YOU TOMAS

by daoust on Jun 2, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

I was never

bothered that it got more attention. I was making a point in a random conversation.

I don’t really think it warranted a posting, it was part of a larger discussion about Boston’s use of their D.. not the Leafs.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

before

last night’s game in Vancouver, he’d had a positive corsi in 10 games, and a negative corsi in 8… he isn’t always on or anything.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

And if you count plus minus,

Kaberle is doing pretty well…Then again, so are most of the bruins defensemen.

Oh hai

by theninjagreg on Jun 2, 2011 10:09 AM EDT reply actions

Amongst Boston D, he’s been on the ice for the fewest goals against, but conversely third lowest TOI/G at 16:24.

Oh hai

by theninjagreg on Jun 2, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

nice post

Ive been thinking about writing a post about kaberle, I think all the criticism is unfair. He leads the bruins d in points and is second in +-. Their powerplay was garbage before he got there, not his fault he couldn’t single handily turn it around.

by Dyler on Jun 2, 2011 10:23 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

i agree, he isnt a fit for the bruins really.

thye wanted him to take a garbage pp and turn it into heavan single handedly? no not going to happen. And people say he is soft? what he always was what the hell did you expect bruins the second he put on your jersey he was going to become the second coming of Bourque?

by Jt Malley on Jun 2, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

The Bruins PP were garbage (around 18%) before he got there and got even more garbage (around 9%) after he got there. Normally I would call that a coincidence but its been more than 30+ games so clearly something must have fundamentally changed. Right now, the most obvious change is Tomas Kaberle which is why he is getting criticized.

In 10 years, Lebda will be better than Lidstrom

by Leafswinthecup on Jun 2, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

the part that baffles me the most is the fact that the Leafs PP has been terrible for more than a few seasons now, and Kaberle was the centerpeice of it the entire time

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Jun 2, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Good one birky. What is most interesting to me is Seidenberg has somehow managed to squeeze into the very good D category. Yes, he has played well over the past three weeks or so but come on…

GWWWHAAAA!

by Mislav Xterratu Jantoljak on Jun 2, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

Thank you Colborne!

Considering that, I think we got a pretty good haul for him. I mean, yes, he’s a good player, but maybe he’s not worth what Boston gave up.

I have to say, though I don’t usually agree with Healy/Simpson, I think it was they who were saying that Chara should be on the point on the PP, not in front of the net. Maybe I only noticed after they mentioned it, but it seemed like the shots were going through fine, but he couldn’t get any wood on any loose pucks in the crease. Maybe Lucic would be better suited there, and put the hardest shot in the NHL at the point. That might help Kaberle’s PP point totals, too…

by Leaf in Habland on Jun 2, 2011 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

Agree that Chara needs to be back at the point, he’s the only true threat the team has back there. He’s not accustomed to tipping or cleaning up rebounds and it shows.

by TomServo42 on Jun 2, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

It was Don that suggested it me thinks and the cbc monkeys agreed with him.

LTWW

by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 2, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I would consider being in the top 10 in PP points by a defenceman 4/5 years to be pretty “elite”, especially considering the players he’s had to work with over the past few seasons.

by Draglikepull on Jun 2, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

That was basically my thought.

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Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.

by PPP on Jun 2, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

There is also the small point that when PIMs spiked in 05-06, they did so league-wide…and Kaberle was first in d-man scoring that year on the PP. I.e. he was better relative to the rest of the league, not just to the rest of his career. But yeah, I would imagine that his reputation comes from being top 10 in 4 of the last 5 years.

Come get your duds in order...

by The Bag on Jun 2, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

his reputation comes on the basis of his point totals on the PP

if you look at his pts/60 on the PP though, he’s not top 10 in D for 4 of the past 5 years. Of D men to play over 1:30 on the PP per game and skate in 40+ games here are his Pts/60 rankings in the past 4 years courtesty of BtN:

2010-11: 33rd (3.60) right behind Michal Rozsival, Marek Zidlicky, and Anton Stralman.
2009-10: 49th (3.13) which tied him with Nik Lidstrom, but had him behind Ian White, Bryan McCabe, Bryan Campbell, Brian Rafalski, etc.
2008-09: 33rd (4.05) right behind Mark Streit, and his D partner Pavel Kubina
2007-08: 18th (3.92) again right behind Kubina (his partner) and Bryan Berard of the Islanders.

Pavel Kubina was a better PP point producer than Kaberle in both of his major years in Toronto… so was McCabe… and Stralman in Columbus… in the past few years.

Just to indicate the difference in effectiveness… that being said Kaberle’s still in the elite group year in and year out, alongside the likes of Lidstrom, Streit, Markov, Gonchar, Visnovsky, etc. He’s in amongst the top 35 or so EVERY year, while other guys float up and down the list at seemingly random levels.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Ok here's a definition of Elite

that I think most would agree with. Kaberle is one of 10 D men in the NHL that has posted a pts/60 over 3.00 while playing over 1:30 in TOI/60, and minimum 40 games, over all of the previous 4 years.

Here are the other 9:

Rafalski, Pronger, Seidenberg, Wideman, JM Liles, Yandle, Timonen, Zidlicky, and Lidstrom.

So… you’ll notice Detroit, Boston, and Philadelphia are all represented fairly regularly on that list… Kaberle, Zidlicky, Liles, and Yandle are the unique ones on the list in not playing for any of those 3 teams.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

oh

on the PP btw.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 2, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for Joining!

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 2, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

hahahahaha

elephant shell
never question our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - yardly

by sportsfan2 on Jun 3, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Not news to you guys

but Phunwin at SCoC has an article on Kaberle’s better-than-assumed statistical performance that dovetails with this post. Visit if you please:
http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2011/6/2/2199913/why-tomas-kaberle-doesnt-suck-as-much-as-you-think#68677691

by TomServo42 on Jun 2, 2011 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

Good article. I’ve been saying a lot of the same things. Someone in the comments suggested signing him at 3 yrs/$10 million. I know some people think his UFA value has dropped this spring, but I honestly can’t see him signing for less than what his current deal pays him. My guess is he gets a 3-4 year deal at $5 million per season from someone.

by Draglikepull on Jun 2, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I can see Detroit having interest in him with Rafalski out of the picture now

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E"

by Matt_Roberts on Jun 2, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

precisely what I have been thinking since I heard that retirement announcement…I think he would be a good fit there if Lidstrom returns…if not I think they have bigger holes to fill and they go after a RFA like Weber or Yandle or UFA like Bieksa

by beachguy113 on Jun 3, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions