Brian Burke's Draft History: Roughly Average
by Bower Power on Jun 23, 2011 8:06 AM EDT
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"Can I take my tie off yet?"
Burke's draft history has been a recent topic of discussion, so I thought I'd take a bit to look at his performance relative to the league. Burke doesn't have a reputation as being a phenomenal drafter (his most talked about draft-time decisions have been the series of trades leading up to the Sedin picks), but using Daoust's excellent spreadsheet, we can figure out what the "average" draft tends to yield, as well as how Burke's picks have done.
Between 1994 and 2005, there were 3,224 players selected. Of those players, 1,485 (46.1%) played at least one NHL game. 450 (14%) of them played at least 300 games, and 313 (9.7%) played at least 400 games. That's about 37.5 300-game players per draft, or 26 400-game players per draft, and the idea that you've got a 16 to 20% chance to get a 300-game player is a little optimistic.
Burke has been the General Manager for 14 NHL drafts. 1992 and 1993 as head of the Hartford Whalers, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 with the Vancouver Canucks, and 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 with the Anaheim Ducks, and 2009, 2010 with the Toronto Maple Leafs. We'll be concerned with the 9 between 1992 and 2005, as anyone in 2006 and later hasn't had the chance to get up to 300 games played yet.
Over those 9 drafts, Burke has had 89 picks. Of those 89 picks, 32 have played at least 1 NHL game (36%). 12 have played at least 300 NHL games (13.5%), and 10 have played at least 400 NHL games (11.2%). This leaves him at "below average," "slightly below average," and "above average." Roughly average.
But the issue has been raised that the top 5 picks are typically a "sure thing." The skillful dodge of Stefan reminds us that in this league there's no such thing as a "sure thing," but we'll cut out the top 5 picks over every draft. This leaves us with 3,164 players drafted overall, 1,425 (45%) of which played at least one NHL game, 404 (12.8%) of which played at least 300 NHL games, and 270 (8.5%) of which played at least 400 games.
Burke has drafted players with 5 top 5 picks - Pronger, D. Sedin, H. Sedin, Bobby Ryan, and Bryan Allen. When we take them out of the mix, Burke has had 84 picks. 27 (32.1%) of which went on to play at least one NHL game, 8 (9.5%) of which played at least 300 games, and 6 (7.1%) of which played at least 400 games.
In "tl;dr" graph form:
|
Criteria |
NHL Sum* |
NHL % |
Burke* |
Burke % |
|
Picks |
3,224 |
89 |
||
|
>= 1 GP |
1,485 |
46.1% |
32 |
36.0% |
|
>= 300 GP |
450 |
14.0% |
12 |
13.5% |
|
>= 400 GP |
313 |
9.7% |
10 |
11.2% |
|
Picks w/o top 5 |
3,164 |
84 |
||
|
>= 1 GP |
1,425 |
45% |
27 |
32.1% |
|
>= 300 GP |
404 |
12.8% |
8 |
9.5% |
|
>= 400 GP |
270 |
8.5% |
6 |
7.1% |
*NHL sum includes 12 drafts between 1994 and 2005, Burke's Performance uses 8 drafts: 1992, 1993, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003.
We've run into a sample size issue, but currently, Brian Burke's draft history without top five picks is slightly sub par. His non-top 10 >400 GP should swing back into a reasonable figure as Bieksa hits his 400th game next season, but we're not playing "if only" here (Ryan is a season from 300 GP as well). His overall draft record though? It's roughly average.
His late rounders aren't the Tomas Kaberles or the Pavel Datsyuks of the world - he picked up Jarkko Ruutu at 68 overall, Marek Malik at 72, Nolan Pratt at 115, and Ken Belanger's 248 GP at 153 - but they're pretty much what one would expect out of an NHL GM drafting. Most importantly, I don't see anything here that suggests to me that he's systematically bad at drafting - at worst, he's a bit unlucky. So maybe that'll bounce back this Friday.
A big glove tap to Kevin McGran. This originally started when I was being a little belligerent over his recent piece here at the Star. Instead of using some "journalists'" preferred method of "mock and block" for bloggers, McGran and I had a discussion surrounding the piece. Despite a few "mom's basement"-level jokes a couple weeks back, I just wanted to thank him for the mature response and attitude.
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Neat
There is one major problem with judging GMs by their draft history though: Reliance on scouting staff, particularly in the later rounds.
Burke’s job isn’t to know every little thing about every player that could go in the draft, he relies on his scouting staff for that. He’s had multiple sets of scouts over his tenure of 4 different clubs now, so comparing THEIR draft success is almost as useful as Burke’s.
That being said he does have the final say and ultimately the onus is on him to get the right player.
Average drafting? That’s about all we can expect. I’ve got to think any GM known as having the “secret sauce” for drafting has just gotten lucky.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
Yeah, and you can always talk about how “oh, that was a Nonis pick” – but at the end of the day, the GM is the one responsible for the staff and for the draft pick no matter what draft, nor what team. It’s an imperfect, but fair, system.
This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.
Ya and I realized after I typed that that it’s also a GM’s responsibility to HIRE the right scouting staff, so again at the end of the day it’s on him. GM/President has to live and die by his personnel and drafting decisions.
If you’re only as good as your staff… you better hire a damn good staff to make you look good.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d love to see a piece on ‘amount spent on scouting’ vs. ‘success’.
Unfortunately that sounds like way too much work.
by potvin vs hextall on Jun 23, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
More money = More success
Done
"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."
Umm, thanks.
More money = more late-round miracle pick success?
Would I have had comparable success if I had used central scouting rankings for all my picks over the last 5 years?
More money = fewer early-round busts?
Is money vs. success a linear relationship? Are there diminishing returns (if the relationship is positive)?
by potvin vs hextall on Jun 23, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
No worries, I was being an idiot
"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."
Haha, not a problem. I got a little defensive :)
by potvin vs hextall on Jun 23, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
It is a good question, but yeah I don’t have the time to research it, and even if I did I probably still couldn’t be stuffed actually doing it
"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."
You’ve obviously created “More Problems.”
by Learn2Leaf on Jun 23, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Fantastic. Now the song will be stuck in my head the rest of the day.
by potvin vs hextall on Jun 23, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess Nashville spends on a ton on scouting. Especially goalies.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Well Rinne was drafted 258th. Lindback was 208th (although according to wikipedia him having Still’s disease caused his stock to drop lower). Many of the best goalies in the NHL were drafted past the 200 mark. The question is, are scouts so good that they know that goalie will be available very late in the draft? Or is it just dumb luck picking a goalie in the 7th round that he turns into a Vezina candidate? My gut tells me the latter but I suppose we’ll never know. You’ll never get a scout to give you a straight answer to that question.
Twitter me!
I was being a little facetious.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
So wait… did he forget it? Or not?
…
by potvin vs hextall on Jun 23, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad to see my spreadsheet being put to good use.
I think Burke should get extra credit for the hoops he jumped through to get the Sedins. That draft class was abysmal, and he managed to get basically the only true stars out of the first round. Everyone else in that top 10 could be considered a bit of a ‘lucky’ pick, and the list gets pretty bad near the bottom…. Nik Hagman as the 10th best guy in the draft, and he’s waiver wire / buyout / AHL material these days.
Does Burke have any glaring duds / busts??
Congratulations Tomas!
Kadri in 5 years.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m at work now, so can’t really field data-related questions until I get home, but Burke’s ability to identify and trade for top end talent in the draft is tough to argue with. The Sedin trade, of course, but as 67sound pointed out to me, he traded for Pronger, too.
This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.
by Bower Power on Jun 23, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Just so we’re clear, define ‘bust’.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Not your definition, but a normal person’s definition.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I need a new word for the disappointment I’m going to have once we trade McKegg to the Rangers in 2017 for a 7th round pick after his demotion to the AHL.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Bust: A sculpture representing a person’s head, shoulders, and upper chest.
by Learn2Leaf on Jun 23, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Bust [buhst] n. a failure. Phil Kessel is a bust and all leaf fans are poopy heads.
LTWW
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 23, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
However, I’m not sure I learn much just from the basic percentages given. Obviously, later picks are less likely to make it into the NHL. Is Burke below average on the proportion of players that play at least one game because he has more late round picks than the average GM?
What would help would be some break down of how many picks he’s had in each round, and then some info about how his 1st and 2nd round picks did, say, and then how his later picks did.
Nice work, I enjoyed reading it.
That's an interesting (and complicated) thought
Is a GM adversely impacted in this calculation / ranking because he has more picks? 1 pick being successful out of 10 compared to 1 pick being successful out of 6 is a huge jump in %s.
To further complicate it – does Burke become a better or worse drafter if he trades a pick for a roster player (a la Brown for a 5th), or does OTT look better or worse for trading their 1st last year for Rundblad?
Definitely an imperfect measure, but adding complications like this really greys the line in what makes a GM a good ‘drafter’.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
The ideal setup would be taking a rolling average of every pick of Burke’s against every pick +/- ~3 positions, then measuring GP against the expected GP. It’d be pretty awful to go through and do.
This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.
by Bower Power on Jun 23, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Not really worth the time
Draft is in 36 hours, let’s just wait and see.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I think to judge a GM’s drafting skills, you take trades out of it. Picking up Brown for a 5th would be considered “trading skills” – related, but somehow a little different. However, such trades do impact the number of picks to be made.
The idea of the rolling average does sound like a good measure, but also a lot of work to be sure. It would be interesting to know the number of picks Burke has had in each round. If the distribution is skewed to the later rounds, that would be the explanation for why he is below average in the proportion of players that make it to the NHL.
Of course, another explanation that fits the data is that Burke is not afraid of risky picks – ones that could either be great or flame out entirely – the guys that get a rating of 7.5D or so on Hockey’s Future. Picking these guys would give you a greater proportion of players who never make it, but also a great proportion of players who stick for a long time.
I think it would also be interesting to see what these drafted players turned out to be. ie. besides bust or star, so like, top line layer or 2nd liner or 3rd or NHL journeyman or career AHLer. Not all players need to be “franchise” types as even a career AHL is a good thing if he is the type that helps other prospects develop….just wondering about that part of it.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Welcome
Thanks for joining.
That’s a good thought and nhlcheapshot comes up with a good follow up which is how to factor in picks that never pan out that get moved for players.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Thanks. I’ve been a lurker for a long time and have just figured out that I’ve probably been missing out on a lot of fun by not actually joining. What was I thinking?
Wait until Game Day Threads. They are spectacular. A good portion of us have had adult beverages and shit gets real.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The threads for our four game winning streak at the beginning of the season were pretty spectacular.
LTWW
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 23, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Those were incredible. I remember that GIF with Leafsman shooting the Death Star containing Sean Avery’s face.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Thread bomb at the Sens blog was the best. And the field trip to Copper N’ Blue.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember the thread bomb at the Sens blog, but I don’t remember the field trip to Copper N’ Blue. Must have been away for that one.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
It was after the game in Edmonton. Taylor Hall had said something to the effect of “the game is there for the taking” prior. We just went over and were mostly smug and not specifically mentioning the game.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
One day we’ll hit 5 in a row…. one day.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember one time we had that 13 game undefeated streak or whatever.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh dear, drinking and blogging. Somehow documented evidence of what a jackass I can be when I drink seems dangerous.
Fortunately, I kind of like danger…
TLC used to have a commercial about ‘life lessons’ or something like that. One of them was Life lesson # 34: red wine and e-mail don’t mix’ and it showed a women at her computer sobbing uncontrollably and typing away. Funny stuff.
Congratulations Tomas!
i previously came clean about the fact that I had to watch ‘what not to wear’ with the missus on friday nights for a while, that’s when i would have saw it.
making fun of women getting overemotional after drinking is always funny.
Congratulations Tomas!
McGran was mostly reasonable last night. His tweets to me are pretty funny though:
I’m glad you love the guy, but he’s below average. but getting better. and he should be better than average, wouldn’t you say?
That’s me. Brian Burke pom pom waver.
Pension Plan Puppets*
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You and your Pro-Leafs bias
and he should be better than average, wouldn’t you say?
Why should he be better than average? Because he has more money for his scoutings staff? Other than that I’m not sure why Burke should command a level of scouting foresight greater than that of 29 other GMs.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I would generally expect the GM of a good team to be above average at drafting.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at it this way – we don’t know how much GMs make, but Burke is believed to be one of the highest paid GMs. If he’s being paid more than most other GMs, shouldn’t he be better at his job than most other GMs?
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Which makes sense because he had tonnes of leverage there just like he does with RFAs and he kills them.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
So it’s fair to rag on players for under-performing their contract, but not GMs?
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
So it’s fair to rag on GMs for signing players who end upforunder-performing their contracts, but not on GMs for underperforming their own contracts.?
The amended statement is true.
GMs should be evaluated on moves which take longer than “instantly” to evaluate.
We’re reaping what JFJ sowed right now. In three years we’ll be in the heart of the Burke era regardless of who’s the GM at the time.
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Also, it doesn’t help that outside of Luke Schenn, we didn’t get anything from 2008.
Looking at the HockeyDB summaries of Leafs draft picks is downright depressing.
Look at 1999; Jesus Christ.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
We drafted Jesus Christ? Only the Leafs could screw up HIS development.
by Shield on Jun 23, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We put him at forward, when everyone knows his main asset is that he saves.
by Wan Ihite on Jun 23, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
On further review, JFJ kinda didn’t do that great in his drafts.
04’s a disaster, though to be fair he didn’t pick until #90.
Two decent pulls from 05; Rask and Stralman.
06 is his meal ticket, but it’s also the draft he made the Rask for Raycroft trade, so…
07 would be another disaster if it wasn’t for Gunnarsson; but he also made the Toskala trade here.
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
And whatever Stralman isn’t ever really that good.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
If you get any kind of player out of the 7th round, that’s pretty good.
2 1st rounders – A great young backup, and a guy stuck between the NHL and AHL
1 2nd rounder – His home run
3 3rd rounders – Squat
5 4th rounders – 2 stiffs, 2 prospects (Holzer, Frattin) and Optimus Reim
3 5th rounders – 3 stiffs (depending on your feelings about MIkus)
6 6th rounders – 2 possible depth guys (DiDo and Stalberg), 1 minor leaguer (Earl), 3 stiffs
4 7th rounders – Gunnarsson and 3 stiffs
1 8th rounder – stiff
1 9th rounder – stiff
Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Oh yeah, but I don’t lay awake at night wondering what could have been if we kept him.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Minor points
Rask more seems like a great young starter who is just stuck behind the guy who had the best season of all time. I would argue drafting Rask is as much of a home run as drafting kulemin. Of course what he did with him was idiotic
Stalberg has also proven himself to be at least a top 9-er and still potentially a second line winger.
I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!
by BCapp on Jun 23, 2011 2:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
MacWilliam may turn into a decent pick, and we got Grabovski out of Greg Pateryn.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
BOO YAH
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 23, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Dear god. You know that incredible 2003 draft everyone talks about?
Our most successful player from it: JFM
I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!
by BCapp on Jun 23, 2011 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thank god for Kaberle in ’96. Otherwise…
by Self Destructive Zones on Jun 23, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
GMs have a ton of jobs - Drafting, Trading, Signing, Cap Management, hiring the right staff, etc.
To expect him to be better than average at absolutely everything is ridiculous.
If I had to break them out:
Drafting – Average
Trading – Some great / Some bad
Signing – RFA great, UFA mostly bad
Hiring the right staff – Very good mostly (Allaire, scouts, new A. coach hirings), very debatable about Ron Wilson and his coaching staff though.
Cap Management – last year where we got the p. bonus penalty bad. This year good*
*depends what he does this offseason
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Have to love McGran’s complete inability that our discussion didn’t centre around defending Burke so much as pointing out how completely useless his chosen method of evaluation was.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
This morning, he plugged my piece, which I thought was nice of him. Then, he followed it up with his piece, which still states that the expectations for draftees should be 16-20%, and that Burke is significantly below that average. Both demonstrably false. Oh well.
This is where a witty signature might go.
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by Bower Power on Jun 23, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d take that as more of a “here’s my piece, and in the interest of fairness here’s a piece with a different view”.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn’t a difference of opinion. His metrics for evaluating picks are baseless.
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Draft Day Danger
I am really hoping Burke drafts with the 25th and 30th picks. I am worried about him throwing away these two picks for a “proven player” who can “help now”.
I feel Burke has moved too many of his picks and needs to show that he can draft and develop players.
oh that car got tow, uP!
I'm not too worried
If Burke trades one of those picks for a player, it’ll be a young 20-something proven player, probably expiring with RFA rights.
Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.
by nhlcheapshot on Jun 23, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
If that “proven player” is Paul Stastny, then I’d be jumping for joy if the price is reasonable.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
At this point I’d basically trade every one of our 2011 picks for Paul Stastny. There’s like a 1% chance of drafting someone of his caliber.
Congratulations Tomas!
A proven player who can help now is considerably more valuable than two late picks. If we bring back a top six player under 25 dance in the streets.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
More of a Lionel Richie kind of dancing in the streets. All night long. All night.
I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jun 23, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Burke’s first draft class with the Leafs just finished its eligibility for the CHL.(and one of those players just started playing NCAA last year)
Still waaaaaaaay too earl to make claims that he needs to show he can draft and develop players. We don’t even know what he got out of the first two crops yet.
Resident Capologist
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He doesn't need to prove that
Ignoring that he is doing that here with kadri, blacker, etc. He has already proven that in other organizations with players like getzlaf, perry, and the sedins.
He needs to do what is best for the team not prove his ability to do something
I am drinking the Kule-aid!
Certified Kule lover!
by BCapp on Jun 23, 2011 2:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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