Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: NFL Players Ready To Welcome Gay Teammate

Making Sense of the Leafs Draft


"The draft is not the time to play it safe; it’s the time to swing for the fences." 

I think SkinnyFish summed up a lot of the disappointment many fans around here felt after the first day of the draft. After about two months of very little Leafs news, combined with seeing other teams make big #1C acquisitions, expectations ran high that Burke would, if not move up, at least land a couple prospects with high-end upside for us all to dream on. 

Tyler_biggs_medium

Instead, Burke traded the 39th pick and drafted Tyler Biggs and Stuart Percy. Both are well-regarded prospects, but the knock on both seems to be the lack of star-level upside. "Safe" was the word thrown around a lot last night. It's way too early to evaluate the picks themselves, but we can evaluate the strategy behind them. How do these picks make sense for an organization that at the NHL and prospect level has lots of nice pieces, but very little elite talent? 

Star-divide

My first reaction to the picks was also disappointment, as I'd hoped the Leafs would take higher-upside players like Matt Puempel or Scott Mayfield. But after some thought, I think I understand the approach taken by Burke and his team. And I think it makes sense.

This year's draft crop was marked by a dearth of high-end, high-impact players available, although observers believed it to be reasonably deep. Therefore, any team picking late in the first round had a very, very small chance (smaller even than usual) of picking up a major difference maker, a player who can anchor a top line or top defence pairing. 

The choice facing Burke was to take the players with some high-end skill but also major question marks that caused them to drop to the end of the first (Puempel's skating and effort, for example, or Grimaldi's size) or to take players with a lower ceiling but a better chance of reaching it. He chose the latter.

In a cap league, it is critical to have players out-performing their salaries in order to build a strong team. Without top-5 picks, the Leafs are not going to have elite talent playing on entry-level or RFA deals. Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews are not walking through that door, unless the team gets very lucky with a draft pick or two. So Burke seems to be going the other way. The focus has been acquiring young elite talent like Phaneuf or Kessel that already have a decent contract attached.

Drafting players like McKegg, Ross, Biggs, and Percy is an attempt to have the strength in depth that elite teams do, without having to spend too much money on guys to be nothing more than good solid NHLers (a problem the Canadiens and Flames have been wrestling with to various degrees).  If Biggs and Percy can be above average or very good top-nine forwards or second-pair D on a cheap contract, that's a big plus for a team that needs to add elite talent through UFA or trades. 

Finally, the strategy does not entirely dispense with upside. McKegg last year, and Biggs, Percy, Leivo, and Nilsson this year are all players that are quite young for their draft year and competition levels, and came on significantly in the second half and playoffs of their seasons. Burke and his team clearly think players like this offer more significant room for growth than some older players who may have put up bigger numbers. It certainly seemed to work with Greg McKegg. 

Obviously, it will be a few years before we know whether the players the Leafs took this year were good picks. Evaluating the strategy, the Leafs may not have hit a home run this week, but perhaps they've strung a few doubles together. 

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

Comment 49 comments  |  6 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Agree.

Earlier today, I posted a comment that suggested we used found money to buy beer instead of throwing it in our RSP, but I actually think that’s backwards. Burke’s approach, I think, is the safer way to continue to amass talent and to steadily get better.

jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog

"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator) CERTIFIED GRABBO LOVER

ON TWITTER: warwalker

by jrwendelman on Jun 25, 2011 5:19 PM EDT reply actions  

some draft interviews

Cameranesi Scrum:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLXjhChEcgY

Max Everson:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CYxfGxjDgs

Stuart Percy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvTG0Awls0c

Tyler Biggs:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsR9Z2U2148

Burkie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmq5_XtVHrU

Popped a Colboner - Certified Joe Colborne Fanboy

03/08/2011 - I saw THE Wookie score his 1st NHL goal.

03/19/2011 - Watched Kadri's 1st NHL goal from the West Bank

Twitter me this.

by happiergilmore on Jun 25, 2011 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Ugh wrong thread, but still, seem like good kids.

Popped a Colboner - Certified Joe Colborne Fanboy

03/08/2011 - I saw THE Wookie score his 1st NHL goal.

03/19/2011 - Watched Kadri's 1st NHL goal from the West Bank

Twitter me this.

by happiergilmore on Jun 25, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Salient points from the creator of the “Versteeg is a sailboat” theory.

Works for me.

Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік

by clrkaitken on Jun 25, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Burke’s strategy, I think, can be summed up as: “Young players with high skating ability who had a good finish to the year.” Those traits have been the three commonalities we saw in all his picks this year. I would imagine he sees them as players who may have been late adjusting to the league they were in. I think that might not have been the way to go for the 20-39 range, but I suppose only time will tell.

This is where a witty signature might go.
This is where a witty signature might go on drugs.

by Bower Power on Jun 25, 2011 5:40 PM EDT reply actions  

A 2nd rounder for Liles definitely helped soothe things a bit, but I agree about draft day definitely qualifying as a disappointment.

YOU STAY AWESOME, CANUCKS FANS!

by TheOtherAndrew on Jun 25, 2011 5:42 PM EDT reply actions  

im really pissed none of them have played any games for us yet. what a joke

by sodonis on Jun 25, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

As much as people thing it was a disapointment its not horrible by any means,

We got Biggs and Percy who are nice prospects. Not to mention we got Liles who is a top 4 defense and a PP specialist. I think we added what we had to now i cant wait for free agency day,

by Jt Malley on Jun 25, 2011 5:54 PM EDT reply actions  

My thoughts parallel this article. Good write up, Godd.

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 25, 2011 5:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Hopefully we find some McKegg/Nicholls type of players in this draft; players who burst out the next season.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jun 25, 2011 6:05 PM EDT reply actions  

“The draft is not the time to play it safe; it’s the time to swing for the fences.”

I cant agree with the above simply that there are seven rounds, so “swinging for the fences” all seven round only sounds like you wont be building depth swinging away and more likely than not striking out. A couple safe picks to build up depth is not bad since we need depth as much as a homerun pick; whether or not those are the right picks are yet to be seen, I’m not hockey expert so I leave the choices to them and praise or bitch when the time comes. Time to swing away is round 3 and later and I think they did that.

BTW getting Biggs, Colborne and JML for Kaberle is great.

"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM

by BlueBuds on Jun 25, 2011 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I missed most of the coverage of the Liles trade and the draft due to work, but have caught up by reading all of the threads and most of the comments from the last couple days here at PPP. I feel this entry most closely represents how I feel about the draft and since I am not a close follower of junior hockey/prospects (though I do enjoy the WJHC every year), I will simply hope for the best.

I do find it surprising that there has been little discussion around these parts about Lile’s ability to play defense (unless I missed a conversation of substance somewhere amidst the comments). Is he a capable defender? Where is the Burtch’ian analysis of his advanced stats? Are we going to be pleased with his physical play? Can he clear a crease? Separate player from puck? If he can provide 40ish points while offering adequate defensive play as well – I will be tickled pink. Anyone familiar with his play and able to provide some insight on his game from our blueline in?

by somny on Jun 25, 2011 6:48 PM EDT reply actions  

This past year Liles played the toughest competition among regular Avalanche defencemen other than Erik Johnson, who may have played tougher competition largely during his time on St. Louis. His Corsi REL of 7.1 was far better than any of his team-mates. He had pretty beneficial zone starts (55%) and not great zone finish (50%). A quick look at his stats make him look like he was the best defender on the Avalanche last year, and certainly better than anyone other than Johnson. His other recent previous seasons aren’t quite as good, but none of his possessional stats is really especially bad – he consistently has a positive Corsi REL, and the quality of competition he faces has gone up in recent years without his stats looking any worse because of it. Only thing I’d worry about is that he’s pretty much always had strongly favourable zone starts, which indicates that the coaching staff wasn’t too confident in his defensive abilities.

My best guess is that he’d make a nice complement to Schenn on the 2nd pairing, providing reasonable but not excellent defensive abilities along with a skill set that makes him good at moving the puck in the other direction. I’m honestly not sure why Colorado was willing to move him for so little, unless they were concerned about his contract (which isn’t even really that bad).

I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull

by Draglikepull on Jun 25, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

* John Michael Liles: A-. One of his best seasons, and graded accordingly.

They seemed pretty happy with him.

by Be26 on Jun 25, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

most of them are piiiiiiiiiiiiiiissed at the trade too
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2011/6/24/2242511/goodbye-john-micheal-liles

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well as one them pointed out Kabby and Liles are pretty similar, and the difference in return for them is massive

"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."

by PKSube on Jun 25, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

hilariously so

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like how they’re all sitting around going “This must be setting up another move” just like Flyers fans were a couple of days ago . . . but sometimes GMs just make dumb moves.

I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull

by Draglikepull on Jun 25, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love the random toronto hate in there, like its the Leafs fault their GM made a dumb move
Unless there is some pre-standing hatred of the leafs, seems to be some for phaneuf

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

who might be his defense partner at times next season!

by blindfolded tank driver on Jun 25, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

My hatred for Burke is at a new level

by avalanchejef on Jun 24, 2011 5:54 PM ADT

This makes me happy for some reason.

LTWW

by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 25, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

hey don’t hate the player*, hate the game!@!

*unless said player is Brett Lebda

Certified Grabbo Lover
Jim Hughson embodies everything I hate about humans

by Future_considerations on Jun 25, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

my roomie is a massive avs fans. Liles was his favorite defense. Described him as a heart and soul guy. WIN

by sodonis on Jun 25, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

And he’s pretty much the perfect stop-gap solution for the Leafs as a PMD

"I prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, if you will, so now I'm afraid i have something of a mess on my hands."
"There's just so many poorly chosen words in that sentence."

by PKSube on Jun 26, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm I like the sound of that.

Come for the truculence, stay for the waffles.

by intp on Jun 26, 2011 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I sometimes question the interpretation of zone starts. Perhaps he gets so many zone starts in the offensive zone not because the coaches doubting his defensive ability-maybe they appreciate his offensive capabilities. And feel it is more beneficial to put him on the ice in the offensive zone and use there defensive defensemen for the dzone starts.

"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."

Albert Einstein

by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jun 25, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is why

balanced zone shift is a better stat… comparing players to guys who start from a similar position is a better way of analysing things.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Liles

is not significantly decent in his own end.

His positive corsi rel just means he’s decent in comparison to his teammates, but considering the fact that Colorado has generally been crap from a corsi perspective in recent years, he isn’t doing much to change things on that front.

He had the second highest Corsi REL QoC on COL last year behind O’Byrne, and the second highest Corsi REL QoT… unfortunately both had a negative Corsi Rating (liles was at -1.49). His PDO was slightly below 1000 at 986, and he suffered from a shite SV% behind him with Anderson and Elliot collectively shitting the bed.

Here are Liles Corsi Ratings from the past few years:

10-11: -1.49
09-10: -10.57 (3rd on the team behind Quincey and Clark)
08-09: -2.47
07-08: +2.53

He’s had a negative Corsi rating for 3 consecutive years, and this last season was the first time he’s led the team D in Corsi REL. He’s not a solid defender. He puts up points on the PP… he’s good at finding lanes, and he’s productive overall… but don’t expect him to play much D.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

He puts up points on the PP… he’s good at finding lanes, and he’s productive overall… but don’t expect him to play much D.

That’s more or less what I hope to see from him. As long as he can put points up on the board, I’ll be happy.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jun 25, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

SHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT

LTWW

by Tickle Me Aulie on Jun 26, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

So…. Kaberle lite.

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 26, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Spazzy around here.

This annoys me – I think overall the draft went as well a can be expected.

It’s a catch 22 – as far as I could tell there was no one prospect out there in this draft that was touted as an “elite prospect”. These guys don’t grow on trees and drafting 25th, 30th and 39th is hardly a guarantee of nabbing a gem. Moving up 8 positions to 22 from 30/39 was damn good according to the puckin’ eh link the other day and grabbing Biggs who ran over Team Canada in the WJC singlehandedly (both goals in the gold game) was pretty sick. He was slated to be gone pre-25 anyway and we have scouted the hell out of him (and every other prospect in this draft) with the most $ committed to scouting in the NHL. The second day of drafting looked fantastic with a load of super-young second half beasts nabbed (especially #86).

I swear if we traded a couple more picks to move even higher up to draft "elite"talent there would be as many people bitching even harder that we paid to much for unproven talent.

Relax.

We have a long way to go before we know anything about these dudes.

Your favorite non-Leaf team now features 110% more suckulence.

by Guy Dudeman on Jun 25, 2011 8:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

“But after some thought, I think I understand the approach taken by Burke and his team. And I think it makes sense.”

Not complaining at all.

My degree is worthless

by Godd Till on Jun 25, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

In my opinion

the fence swinging came with the likes of Nilsson and Leivo. Both are on the young side with late birthdays who turned it on in the 2nd half.

I’m happy with the picks generally.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

not really happy with percy, there were about 5 players left on board i wanted more, but I can live with it

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

he's a reasonably safe pick

should end up in the NHL from what I’ve “heard”.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I for one would be more than happy with a “mistake-free defenceman”, as he’s been called.

by Lemonstyx on Jun 25, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, so is Biggs, at least as a 3rd liner, two “safe” picks in the first is the thing that bugs me, I wanted him to go with some one a little more risky but with top three/first pairing potential like Phillips, Jensen or Mayfield

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

we do have

a lot of top 6 forwards already to be honest.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

either way

I’ll do a more detailed run down tomorrow.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm out

enjoy the evening guys.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

MOAR!

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 25, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can never have enough top-6 forward prospects!

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jun 25, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

You really can’t, because half of them wont be able to cut it at the NHL level

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 26, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

What do you think about Max Everson?

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jun 25, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he's

touted as a good skater who plays well positionally with limited offensive game. I’m fine with it considering he was drafted late. He was ranked 77th by the scouting report… here’s a scouting report from Bruins 2011 Draft Watch:

The book on Everson is that he’s got some potential as a two-way defenseman, although his size is nothing to write home about (6-0, 184). Like Delbarton captain Matt Killian, he saw some time with the U.S. NTDP in the fall as a temporary replacement, which no doubt boosted his confidence when he returned to the high school ranks in Minnesota. Everson is a very good skater with excellent change of direction and has a nice touch on the puck with the ability to make the accurate breakout pass and get the puck up the ice quickly. He’s got a heavy shot despite the lack of big-time size and upper body powerLike most players on the blue line who possess average size, he’s lacking in functional strength and hasn’t had to use it much at this level.

In order to get some solid ink on him in terms of what he’s done recently, we went to a reliable and favorite source, Max Giese, who is the Director of Player Personnel for the USHL’s Chicago Steel and is also Red Line Report’s NCAA, USHL and H.S. scout in the Midwest. Max just recently returned from a scouting trip in Minnesota and had this to share about Everson:

“At first I thought he had a great game. When he wanted to, he could take over the game with his ability to transition to offense. I like his feet; he’s a real good skater, but I noticed that he didn’t use the feet offensively in terms of leading the rush and using his speed to exploit the defense. Another interesting aspect of his skating is that he’s the same skater he was two years ago, so you’d like to have seen some improvement from him. You can see he’s gotten stronger, but not necessarily faster. Instead of a powerful, wide-based stride, he has kind of a backwards kick to his movement, which I think is a detriment. If he can fix that, I think he could be one of the better skating defensemen out there.

He’s got a real hard shot and can quarterback the power play. He moves pretty well on the point. But the thing with Everson that I’ve noticed is that he’s one of those guys who won’t make the play if it’s not there. What I mean by that is that he’s not a dynamic guy who you watch and then say to yourself, ‘How did he find that lane?’ He tends to take what he’s given which isn’t a bad thing, but you wonder about his creativity and whether he’s going to be able to bring the offense at the next level.

He may end up being a steady, stay-at-home shutdown guy with his feet, stick and defensive sense, but I don’t know if that’s a great thing. Is he going to be a ‘tweener? It’s tough to be a shutdown guy in the NHL when you’re only about 6-feet."

Everson is a Harvard University recruit, which also isn’t necessarily the best developing ground for young prospects, though I’m sure head coach Ted Donato and Crimson backers would vociferously object to that characterization of the ECAC and program. That said, I’ve heard it from NHL scouts and through independent channels. Montreal ‘09 first-rounder Louis Leblanc left Harvard for the QMJHL for a reason, so as much as you hate to say it, Everson’s choice of schools could also be a factor in where he ends up.

So, Everson is definitely a player to watch for the 2011 NHL Draft, but where he goes could be directly linked to whether NHL clubs share Giese’s concerns about the size and offensive instincts and whether he’ll be a legitimate PMD at the highest level or more of a defensive player.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 25, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, for a 7th rounder, he seems like he could potentially be a very good prospect for the Leafs. He sounds a bit like Percy the more I look back on it.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jun 25, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Your best source for quality Toronto Maple Leafs news, rumours, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

N907005365_1934770_7971_small
PPP Salary cap Challenge - Paper bag Leaf fan
Lifeasaleaffan_small
(Old) Marlies Game Photos
Newman_small
PPP Salary cap Challenge - samspade
Small
PPP Salary Cap Challenge - DaSim85
Globeatar_small
How Much Should You Spend On A Top 4 D?
Phaneufkessel_small
TOI-weighted NHL Team Ages
48839cd14228986f0ad0d2e405f1_small
Casting Call
Petering_small
PPP Salary Cap Challenge - Self Destructive Zones
Globeatar_small
The Fancystats Exchange, Part 1
Or-wallpaper-1680x1050__1__small
PPP Salary Cap Challenge-BCapp #2

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

StatCounter

wordpress visitor


Chief Blogging Officers

Calvin_small PPP

Aen1_small Chemmy

PPP's Girlfriends

Don_t_panic_small SkinnyFish

Picture_1_small JP Nikota

Fg_small birky

Christian-hanson-wrecks-brian-o_1__small Bower Power