FanPost

Using Win Threshold to Anticipate Next Season Part I

Gustavsson_medium

Editor's Note: Ben Schnell with an interesting post on what the Leafs neeed to do in order to hit the magic mark of .550 that would see them into the playoffs. Probably.

A few weeks ago someone posted a link in the FTB to a blog called Brodeur is a Fraud which mulls over a series of goalie stats. Among these stats is one metric the blogger created, called Win Threshold. This post will be taking a look at the Leafs' projected win threshold, the win thresholds of the rest of the teams in the league, how we can expect their goalies to perform, and how the leafs should fare.

[In 2008/2009] the Detroit Red Wings had the league's best offence, scoring 3.52 goals per game. They also allowed the second fewest shots against per game with 27.7. On the other end of the scale, the New York Islanders finished second last in both goals for (2.42) and shots against (33.5) per game. Quite obviously an Islander goalie would need to be much better than a Red Wing goalie for their teams to have the same chance at winning, because he would have to make up for his team scoring one less goal per game and he would have to do it while facing an extra half-dozen shots against.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub-.500 (or sub-.550 in the shootout era).

Follow the jump for further information on Win Threshold, and my analysis on how it should pertain to the Leafs next year.

Just to re-iterate the quoted portion, win threshold calculates the save percentage required--from a team, not their main goalie--to most likely attain a win percentage of > .550 (with shootout losses). Just for comparison sake, a 0.550% x a possible 164 points (82PG x 2) gives us 90 points.

To put these 90 points in perspective, it took 93 for the NY Rangers to gain the 8th spot in the East last year, though they could have gotten in with 92 points. This was substantially higher than 2009/2010, however, as both the Habs and the Flyers got in with 88 points. Thus, we will maintain the 0.550 win % as accurate, though the playoffs may actually require 0.561 (92 points).

With that said, let's have a look at the Shots Against, Goals For, and thus Win Threshold of each team from last year.

Team GP Pts GF GA SA/G Total SA Win Threshold
Vancouver 82 117 262 185 30.1 2468 0.894
Washington 82 107 224 197 29 2378 0.906
Philadelphia 82 106 259 223 30.1 2468 0.895
Pittsburgh 82 106 238 199 28.7 2353 0.899
San Jose 82 105 248 213 28.9 2370 0.895
Detroit 82 104 261 241 30.7 2517 0.896
Boston 82 103 246 195 32.7 2681 0.908
Tampa Bay 82 103 247 240 28.7 2353 0.895
Anaheim 82 99 239 235 32.3 2649 0.910
Nashville 82 99 219 194 30.6 2509 0.913
Phoenix 82 99 231 226 32.6 2673 0.914
Los Angeles 82 98 219 198 27.9 2288 0.904
Chicago 82 97 258 225 28.7 2353 0.890
Montreal 82 96 216 209 31 2542 0.915
Buffalo 82 96 245 229 30.7 2517 0.903
Dallas 82 95 227 233 30.5 2501 0.909
Calgary 82 94 250 237 28.5 2337 0.893
NY Rangers 82 93 233 198 29.4 2411 0.903
Carolina 82 91 236 239 33.2 2722 0.913
St Louis 82 87 240 234 27.7 2271 0.894
Minnesota 82 86 206 233 32 2624 0.921
Toronto 82 85 218 251 31 2542 0.914
New Jersey 82 81 174 209 26.2 2148 0.919
Columbus 82 81 215 258 29.8 2444 0.912
Atlanta 82 80 223 269 32.2 2640 0.916
Ottawa 82 74 192 250 31.2 2558 0.925
NY Islanders 82 73 229 264 32 2624 0.913
Florida 82 72 195 229 31.8 2608 0.925
Colorado 82 68 227 288 31.8 2608 0.913
Edmonton 82 62 193 269 31.7 2599 0.926

 

We'll just briefly look at a few things in that table.

  • First, while the Vancouver goalies put up really good numbers, whoever was voting for Luongo to win the Hart was out of his mind. The defense is a lot better than I ever realized, and the forwards are damned good at scoring--the team only needed 89.4% percentage for ~90 points.
  • Boston is a team that was clearly carried by their goalies. The teams are sorted by their total points, for a team so high on the list, their win threshold was 90.8%, which would rank them right in the middle at 15th.
  • Anaheim, Nashville, Phoenix, and Montreal were all also carried by their Vezina-callibre goalies, as they all finished in the bottom half for win threshold, at 17th, 19th, 23rd, and 25th respectively. Montreal was substantially the worst of the playoff teams for win threshold, and was carried by Carey.
  • Despite Chicago having the lowest win threshold (#1) in the league, they barely made the playoffs, mostly due to the terrible play of Mary Turco, and a mediocre-play of Corey Crawford (though Crawford was super good for a rookie).
  • St Louis is actually a pretty good team. They score lots of goals, and their defense is pretty good at eliminating shots. They just have terrible goalies. Jaroslav Halak put up an average .910 for a not too shabby 27-21-7 record, but Ty Conklin put up an atrocious .881 through 25 games, and Ben Bishop also hurt the team with a .899
  • Edmonton, Florida, and Ottawa had no hope winning games with the non-existent offense, and undefensive defense. 
  • Just to see how Toronto was expected to place based on the numbers, for 90 points Toronto required a Win Threshold of .914. Toronto's three goalies combined for 1134 SA (Reimer), 777 SA (Giguere) and 620 SA (Gustavson) with 0.921%, 0.900%, & 0.890% respectively.
    Doing the math gives us:
    = 1134(0.921)+777(0.9)+620(0.89)/(1134+777+620)
    = 1044.4+699.3+551.8/(2531)
    = 2295.5/2531
    = 0.907
    This save percentage is much smaller than what we needed, and is demonstrated by our 85 points (0.518 Win%)

If we take goalies out of the picture, and base our standings on Win Threshold (How good are the defense at preventing shots and how good are the forwards at scoring goals) this is the order we are left with:

Team GP Pts GF GA SA/G Total SA Win Threshold
Chicago 82 97 258 225 28.7 2353 0.890
Calgary 82 94 250 237 28.5 2337 0.893
Vancouver 82 117 262 185 30.1 2468 0.894
St Louis 82 87 240 234 27.7 2271 0.894
Tampa Bay 82 103 247 240 28.7 2353 0.895
Philadelphia 82 106 259 223 30.1 2468 0.895
San Jose 82 105 248 213 28.9 2370 0.895
Detroit 82 104 261 241 30.7 2517 0.896
Pittsburgh 82 106 238 199 28.7 2353 0.899
Buffalo 82 96 245 229 30.7 2517 0.903
NY Rangers 82 93 233 198 29.4 2411 0.903
Los Angeles 82 98 219 198 27.9 2288 0.904
Washington 82 107 224 197 29 2378 0.906
Boston 82 103 246 195 32.7 2681 0.908
Dallas 82 95 227 233 30.5 2501 0.909
Anaheim 82 99 239 235 32.3 2649 0.910
Columbus 82 81 215 258 29.8 2444 0.912
Nashville 82 99 219 194 30.6 2509 0.913
NY Islanders 82 73 229 264 32 2624 0.913
Colorado 82 68 227 288 31.8 2608 0.913
Carolina 82 91 236 239 33.2 2722 0.913
Phoenix 82 99 231 226 32.6 2673 0.914
Toronto 82 85 218 251 31 2542 0.914
Montreal 82 96 216 209 31 2542 0.915
Atlanta 82 80 223 269 32.2 2640 0.916
New Jersey 82 81 174 209 26.2 2148 0.919
Minnesota 82 86 206 233 32 2624 0.921
Ottawa 82 74 192 250 31.2 2558 0.925
Florida 82 72 195 229 31.8 2608 0.925
Edmonton 82 62 193 269 31.7 2599 0.926

Or if we only look at the Eastern Conference (as this is who we are in competition with), this is the order:

Rank Team GP Pts GF GA SA/G Total SA Win Threshold
1 Tampa Bay 82 103 247 240 28.7 2353 0.895
2 Philadelphia 82 106 259 223 30.1 2468 0.895
3 Pittsburgh 82 106 238 199 28.7 2353 0.899
4 Buffalo 82 96 245 229 30.7 2517 0.903
5 NY Rangers 82 93 233 198 29.4 2411 0.903
6 Washington 82 107 224 197 29 2378 0.906
7 Boston 82 103 246 195 32.7 2681 0.908
8 NY Islanders 82 73 229 264 32 2624 0.913
9 Carolina 82 91 236 239 33.2 2722 0.913
10 Toronto 82 85 218 251 31 2542 0.914
11 Montreal 82 96 216 209 31 2542 0.915
12 Atlanta 82 80 223 269 32.2 2640 0.916
13 New Jersey 82 81 174 209 26.2 2148 0.919
14 Ottawa 82 74 192 250 31.2 2558 0.925
15 Florida 82 72 195 229 31.8 2608 0.925

Of course goalies do count for something. Looking at the list, this is the reason Tampa Bay fell from 1st, and Boston, Montreal, and Washington all climbed higher that their respective positions. Buffalo and NY Rangers both eclipsed their Win Threshold, but not at as extreme a rate than the aforementioned teams.

In order to keep this post a reasonable length, continue on to Part II, which examines the Leaf's Skaters shooting percentages, and how this will affect our Goals For.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker