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Using Win Threshold to Anticipate Next Season Part II

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Editor's Note: Ben Schnell is back with part two of his Win Threshold analysis. This time he focuses on shooting percentages, historical results, and what they might mean going forward

In Part I, we calculated the Win Threshold of each team in the NHL last season, which examines how effectively the defense can limit shot and how effectively the offense can score goals. Now we have to put it all together by including our goalies, and predicting how we will continue next year. When looking at win threshold, this is how the Eastern Conference stacked up last year:

Rank Team GP Pts GF GA SA/G Total SA Win Threshold
1 Tampa Bay 82 103 247 240 28.7 2353 0.895
2 Philadelphia 82 106 259 223 30.1 2468 0.895
3 Pittsburgh 82 106 238 199 28.7 2353 0.899
4 Buffalo 82 96 245 229 30.7 2517 0.903
5 NY Rangers 82 93 233 198 29.4 2411 0.903
6 Washington 82 107 224 197 29 2378 0.906
7 Boston 82 103 246 195 32.7 2681 0.908
8 NY Islanders 82 73 229 264 32 2624 0.913
9 Carolina 82 91 236 239 33.2 2722 0.913
10 Toronto 82 85 218 251 31 2542 0.914
11 Montreal 82 96 216 209 31 2542 0.915
12 Atlanta 82 80 223 269 32.2 2640 0.916
13 New Jersey 82 81 174 209 26.2 2148 0.919
14 Ottawa 82 74 192 250 31.2 2558 0.925
15 Florida 82 72 195 229 31.8 2608 0.925

This post shall be a lot more hypothetical than the last one and even subjective in some places. This is necessary for a post like this as no one can see the future, though we shall try to be as analytical as possible with our outputs.

In order to increase our rank from this year's rank we either have to get a goalie that can put up a big save percentage, dramatically decrease our shots against, or dramatically increase our goals for.

To begin, we will try to predict our Goals For for next year by examining the goals that were scored last year and any potential changes we might see.

In 2010/2011, the Leafs scored 218G, coming from the following distribution:

# Pos Player GP G A P S S%
81 R Phil Kessel 82 32 32 64 325 9.8
41 L Nikolai Kulemin 82 30 27 57 173 17.3
84 C Mikhail Grabovski 81 29 29 58 239 12.1
16 L Clarke MacArthur 82 21 41 62 154 13.6
42 C Tyler Bozak 82 15 17 32 120 12.5
32 R Kris Versteeg 53 14 21 35 128 10.9
19 R Joffrey Lupul 28 9 9 18 75 12
9 R Colby Armstrong 50 8 15 23 69 11.6
37 C Tim Brent 79 8 12 20 60 13.3
3 D Dion Phaneuf 66 8 22 30 190 4.2
47 L Darryl Boyce 46 5 8 13 27 18.5
2 D Luke Schenn 82 5 17 22 128 3.9
36 D Carl Gunnarsson 68 4 16 20 69 5.8
15 D Tomas Kaberle 58 3 35 38 99 3
46 R Joey Crabb 48 3 12 15 51 5.9
18 R Mike Brown 50 3 5 8 59 5.1
43 C Nazem Kadri 29 3 9 12 51 5.9
22 D Francois Beauchemin 54 2 10 12 76 2.6
28 R Colton Orr 46 2 0 2 14 14.3
11 L Fredrik Sjostrom 66 2 3 5 62 3.2
39 C John Mitchell 23 2 1 3 28 7.1
59 D Keith Aulie 40 2 0 2 32 6.3
8 D Mike Komisarek 75 1 9 10 48 2.1
38 L Jay Rosehill 26 1 2 3 12 8.3
23 D Brett Lebda 41 1 3 4 34 2.9
26 C Mike Zigomanis 8 0 1 1 7 0
29 D Matt Lashoff 11 0 1 1 8 0
55 D Korbinian Holzer 2 0 0 0 1 0
33 L Luca Caputi 7 0 0 0 8 0
39 R Matt Frattin 1 0 0 0 5 0
32 C Joe Colborne 1 0 1 1 1 0
20 C Christian Hanson 6 0 0 0 2 0
45 C Marcel Mueller 3 0 0 0 5 0

I included the players who scored 0 goals because it is important to note that they are getting ice time though not scoring--thus impeding the ability of others to score.

Last season, the Leafs leading goal scorer, Phil Kessel, shot at 9.8% Percent. His career shot percentage is 10.3%, though it was 10.7% before last season. However, Kessel also shot more last season than any other year in his career, with 325 shots. Kessel has been gradually increasing his shot totals every year though, so perhaps this is his shots plateau and he may not decrease. This is left to be seen. Assuming he takes 325 shots again, at his pre-last year 10.7%, Kessel will score 35 goals. His career high shot percentage is 15.5% whereas his career low was his rookie season at 6.5%. If he took 325 shots at his high or low, he could put up 50 or 21 goals. It is most likely, though that he will continue to shoot at his career average, which is 10.3%, resulting in an anticipated 33 goals.

We will establish a table similar to the above table and then make certain adjustments based on anticipated roster changes.

Player GP G S S% Career Low Career High Actual Career Career wo 2010-2011
S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals
Phil Kessel 82 32 325 9.8 6.5 21 15.5 50 10.3 33 10.7 35
Nikolai Kulemin 82 30 173 17.3 11 19 17.3 30 13.6 24 11.3 20
Mikhail Grabovski 81 29 239 12.1 7.9 19 16.7 40 12.1 29 12.0 29
Clarke MacArthur 82 21 154 13.6 10 15 18.8 29 14.2 22 14.5 22
Tyler Bozak 82 15 120 12.5 12.5 15 15.7 19 13.5 16 15.7 19
Kris Versteeg 53 14 128 10.9 9.5 12 15.8 20 12.4 16 12.8 16
Joffrey Lupul 28 9 75 12 9.3 7 15.2 11 10.8 8 10.8 8
Colby Armstrong 50 8 69 11.6 8.3 6 18.6 13 13.1 9 13.3 1
Tim Brent 79 8 60 13.3 7.1 4 13.3 8 11.7 7 7.1 4
Dion Phaneuf 66 8 190 4.2 2.3 4 8.3 16 6 11 6.2 12
Darryl Boyce 46 5 27 18.5 18.5 5 18.5 5 18.5 5 N/A 0
Luke Schenn 82 5 128 3.9 2 3 5 6 3.6 5 3.4 4
Carl Gunnarsson 68 4 69 5.8 5.8 4 6.7 5 6.1 4 6.7 5
Tomas Kaberle 58 3 99 3 3 3 11.8 12 6.1 6 6.5 6
Joey Crabb 48 3 51 5.9 5.9 3 12.1 6 8.3 4 12.1 6
Mike Brown 50 3 59 5.1 5.1 3 11.1 7 6.2 4 6.7 4
Nazem Kadri 29 3 51 5.9 5.9 3 5.9 3 5.9 3 N/A 0
Francois Beauchemin 54 2 76 2.6 1.4 1 10 8 4.2 3 4.5 3
Colton Orr 46 2 14 14.3 2.5 0 14.3 2 6.9 1 6.1 1
Fredrik Sjostrom 66 2 62 3.2 3 2 11.9 7 7.2 4 7.6 5
John Mitchell 23 2 28 7.1 6.7 2 12.2 3 9.3 3 9.6 3
Keith Aulie 40 2 32 6.3 6.3 2 6.3 2 6.3 2 N/A 0
Mike Komisarek 75 1 48 2.1 0 0 5.3 3 3.1 1 3.2 2
Jay Rosehill 26 1 12 8.3 8.3 1 16.7 2 11.1 1 16.7 2
Brett Lebda 41 1 34 2.9 1.6 1 8.7 3 4.4 1 4.5 2
Total: 213 155 310 224 208

It is important to realize first of all that the goal columns reflect the amount of goals each player would score if they shot at their career high S% or career low S% as opposed to their actual career high or low in goals. These columns take the number of shots they had last year and multiply them by the shot percentages.

The column to the far right represents the shot percentages of each player before last season, treating all of the shot percentages last year as outliers. Thus, going into last year's season, the Leafs could have expected 208 goals. The Leafs in fact got 213 goals including 10 from rookies Boyce, Kadri & Aulie.

If all the Leafs simultaneously decided to go Superman and shoot at their career high S%, they would have scored 310 GF, on the same number of shots, putting them well into #1 in the league that category, and likely overall. If, however, they decided to play like the Bruins and not really score goals--shooting at their career low percentages all at once--they would have only scored 155 goals.

What is more likely is that the Leafs continue to shoot around their career S% and pot 224 collectively.

Before moving onto the next section, however, we have to make amendments to our roster.

The Leafs lost the following production due to trades and UFA:

Player GP G S S% Career Low Career High Actual Career Career wo 2010-2011
S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals
Kris Versteeg 53 14 128 10.9 9.5 12 15.8 20 12.4 16 12.8 16
Tomas Kaberle 58 3 99 3 3 3 11.8 12 6.1 6 6.5 6
Francois Beauchemin 54 2 76 2.6 1.4 1 10 8 4.2 3 4.5 3
Fredrik Sjostrom 66 2 62 3.2 3 2 11.9 7 7.2 4 7.6 5
John Mitchell 23 2 28 7.1 6.7 2 12.2 3 9.3 3 9.6 3
Total: 254 23 20 50 32 34

Fortunately none of these players are Mats Sundin or even players we were dependent on for offense, save perhaps Kaberle. The five players combined for 23 goals last year, or 10.5% of our offense. They also combined for $2,155,018 + $750,000 + $491,129 + $3,061,828 + $2,553,763 cap dollars (amount of Daily Cap Space Spent) or $9,0117,38 total. This reflects 17.1% of our total cap space spent.  Now of course Beauchemin and Versteeg have been billed as defense-first players, so their salaries are inflated. Now lets say we input one offensively elite player, 2 stay at home D and 2 defensive forwards. If that offensively elite forward can put up > 25 goals we are looking at an increase in goals. More on this below. Our roster and devoted capspace for next year looks like the following, with anticipated RFA raises:

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / ($0.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Clarke MacArthur ($2.800m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($2.900m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.350m)
Nazem Kadri ($1.720m) / Tyler Bozak ($1.400m) / Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
Mike Brown ($0.736m) / Tim Brent ($0.650m) / Colton Orr ($1.000m)
/ / Darryl Boyce ($0.650m)
/ / Joey Crabb ($0.650m)


DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
John-Michael Liles ($4.200m) / Luke Schenn ($3.500m)
Keith Aulie ($0.733m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Brett Lebda ($1.450m)

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m) / Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)

BUYOUTS: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,865,000; BONUSES: $1,000,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $10,435,000

Even if we assume Burke blows the raises, and gives each of Bozak, MacArthur, and Schenn 0.5M extra, that leaves us with 8,935,000 in Cap Space to fill One Roster Spot. Now obviously a good way to gain some offense would be to sign an offensive player, such Brad Richards (who I fully advocate signing) who can give you the 28 goals he got last year, as well as ensure Kessel will hit his expected totals. Now let's just assume Burke doesn't go that route and picks up someone like Nicklas Bergfors or someone of similiar level. This will leave us at least $6M in cap space and we can anticipate the following totals from our 2 new additions (Bergfors & Liles).

July 4th Edit:

So in an awesome move, and as we all know by now, Brian Burke somehow unloaded Brett Lebda for the 6'5 fantastic rising offensive defenseman Cody Franson??? Craziest deal I've ever heard of. We also picked up Matthew Lombardi who may be good for 20 games, and signed Tim Connolly UFA. An awesome series of moves IMO. I will take these changes and post a few adjustments to the numbers above.

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / Tim Connolly ($4.750m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Clarke MacArthur ($2.800m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($2.900m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.350m)
Nazem Kadri ($1.720m) / Matthew Lombardi ($3.500m) / Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
Mike Brown ($0.736m) / Tyler Bozak ($1.400m) / Colton Orr ($1.000m)
/ / Darryl Boyce ($0.650m)
/ / Joey Crabb ($0.650m)


DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
John-Michael Liles ($4.200m) / Luke Schenn ($3.500m)
Keith Aulie ($0.733m) / Cody Franson ($0.800m)
/ / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)  


GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m) / Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)

BUYOUTS: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,164,000; BONUSES: $1,000,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $4,136,000

Matthew Lombardi is also included on this roster, despite the fact that he will be replacing Connolly’s salary, because of the way the CBA payroll operates. At the start of the year, Lombardi’s salary is on the roster, before he is moved to the LTIR. LTIR states that you can replace the player of an equal or lesser value, but at the cap cost of the salary. Thus, Lombardi must be slotted into our lineup (in any position) at his 3.5M salary, and can be replaced with any player of that value or less. Replacing him will be Boyce, who makes substantially less than him, but will replace that salary. Hypothetically—and im not sure if this is possible—maybe the leafs could replace Lombardi’s salary with someone as close to it as possible? Correct me if I’m wrong, but could Lombardi’s salary be replaced with Colby Armstrong-making the loss on 0.5M in cap space-and then whatever line changes Wilson wants to make could be made? I’m not sure exactly how this works, so please inform me if any of you are aware. Regardless, this is why I included Lombardi.

So rather than Nicklas Bergfors, we get proven performer Tim Connolly. The problem is he's had some injury problems. According to him, and to Darren Dreger, he is healthy again, so we can at least expect him to play the start of the season until (if) he gets injured again. For this reason, but paired with the knowledge that he may very well get injured again, let's assume he only plays 60 games. We also picked up Matthew Lombardi, who has major concussion injuries, but is reporting himself, and has been reported by others to have been closer to returning. He says he will try to be ready for camp. I don't see this a a possibility, but let's assume he can make it back briefly at the end of the year.  This would hopefully coincide with Connolly's preposed inury, and so we will say that Lombardi can play 22 ggames. Finally, we have Cody Franson who will play in Komisarek's spot, moving Komi to the 7hole, and Lebda to the Predators. Based on these assumptions, we can expect the following output from these players

Player Last year's GP Last year's G Last year's S Last year's S% Career Low Career High Actual Career Career wo 2010-2011
S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals S% Goals
Matthew Lombardi* 78 19 174 10.9 7.6 13 12.3 21 9.7 17 9.4 16
Cody Franson 80 8 156 5.1 5.1 8 6.7 10 5.7 8 6.7 10
Tim Connolly 68 13 151 8.6 6.3 13 16.2 24 9.3 14 9.4 14
John Michael Liles 76 6 163 3.7 3.7 6 10.9 18 7 11 7.7 13

There are a variety of further hypotheticals I could make but it's impossible to know what's going to happen next year. I am simply going to re-display our lineup and create a range of proposed goals for each of the 12 forwards and 6 defense. The shots for each player are indicitatve of the amount they shoot but in addition the amount of games they played last year. In the case of Phil Kessel, it is unlikely he will play an 82 game schedule again (though this would be awesome). To be fair, we will convert each of our player's GP to 74, and replace those 8 missed games per player with production from our 13th F and 7th D, as well as the 24 games we'll give to Colborne, and the 22 we'll give to Lombardi.

Player 2010/2011 GP 2010/2011 Shots S% Career S% Career without 2010/2011 S% Anticipated 2011/2012 GP Anticipated 2011/2012 Shots Goals based on Career S% Goals based on Career S% (wo 2010/2011)
Joffrey Lupul 28 75 12 10.8 10.8 74 198 21 21
Tim Connolly 68 151 7.6 9.3 9.4 60 133 12 13
Phil Kessel 82 325 9.8 10.3 10.7 74 293 30 31
Clarke MacArthur 82 154 13.6 14.2 14.5 74 139 20 20
Mikhail Grabovski 81 239 12.1 12.1 12 74 218 26 26
Nikolai Kulemin 82 173 17.3 13.6 11.3 74 156 21 18
Nazem Kadri 29 51 5.9 5.9 N/A 74 130 8 N/A
Tyler Bozak 82 120 12.5 13.5 15.7 74 108 15 17
Colby Armstrong 50 69 11.6 13.1 13.3 74 102 13 14
Mike Brown 50 59 5.1 6.2 6.7 74 87 5 6
Colton Orr 46 14 14.3 6.9 6.1 74 23 2 1
Darryl Boyce 46 27 18.5 18.5 N/A 74 43 8 N/A
Joey Crabb 48 51 5.9 8.3 12.1 64 68 6 8
Matthew Lombardi* 78 174 10.9 9.7 9.4 22 49 5 5
Joe Colborne N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 24 42 2 N/A
                   
Carl Gunnarsson 68 69 5.8 6.1 6.7 74 75 5 5
Dion Phaneuf 66 190 4.2 6 6.2 74 213 13 13
John Michael Liles 76 163 3.7 7 7.7 74 159 11 12
Luke Schenn 82 128 3.9 3.6 3.4 74 116 4 4
Keith Aulie 40 32 6.3 6.3 N/A 74 59 4 N/A
Cody Franson 80 156 5.1 5.1 6.7 74 144 7 10
Mike Komisarek 75 48 2.1 3.1 3.2 48 31 1 1
Total             2586 239 225

When initially made this post a few days ago, this is where I ended the Goals For analysis. Since there was a general positive response and I now know that people are actually reading this series, I will take it one step further and try to factor in average ice time. This is all subjective as Ron Wilson could suddenly throw someone into his dog house, or find a new Brett Lebda or John Mitchell to give undeserved ice time to. Regardless, I will pull up a list of the ice time each player received last season, and compare those numbers to where I anticipate their ice time to fall next season.

Below is a list of leafs players from last season, their position (subjective assignments to help determine comparables), their Even Strength Ice Time, Short Handed Ice Time, Power Play Ice Time, and Total Ice Time. I will use this list as the template for next year’s roster, taking the position to determine the Even Strength Ice Time, and factor in the Power Play / Short Handed Time based on whether they play said situations.

Player  Pos  ES TOI/G  SH TOI/G  PP TOI/G  TOI/G 
Luke Schenn 2D 18:38 2:44 0:59 22:22
Dion Phaneuf 1D 19:25 1:57 3:55 #####
Phil Kessel 1R 15:46 0:07 3:45 19:38
Tyler Bozak 1C 14:30 1:48 2:57 19:16
Mikhail Grabovski 2C 15:13 1:00 3:08 19:21
Nikolai Kulemin 2L 13:44 0:55 2:39 17:19
Clarke MacArthur 2L 14:10 0:00 2:55 17:06
Tomas Kaberle 2D 17:49 0:14 4:24 22:28
Francois Beauchemin 1D 19:10 2:48 1:46 23:45
Carl Gunnarsson 3D 14:17 2:36 1:20 18:14
Mike Komisarek 3D 12:01 1:33 0:02 13:37
Kris Versteeg 3R 14:33 0:41 3:41 18:55
Tim Brent 3C 8:55 1:58 0:45 11:39
Colby Armstrong 3R 13:39 1:51 0:36 16:07
Keith Aulie 2D 16:49 2:04 0:14 19:07
Fredrik Sjostrom 4L 9:29 1:38 0:04 11:12
Joey Crabb 4R 11:19 0:48 0:50 12:58
Brett Lebda 3D 11:12 0:06 2:01 13:20
Darryl Boyce 4L 10:41 0:21 0:20 11:22
Mike Brown 4R 8:24 1:35 0:06 10:05
Joffrey Lupul 1R 14:14 0:00 3:36 17:51
Nazem Kadri 3C 13:11 0:00 2:35 15:46
John Mitchell 4C 11:12 0:55 0:22 12:30
Colton Orr 4R 5:00 0:01 0:02 5:04
Matt Lashoff 3D 11:29 0:18 2:02 13:49
Jay Rosehill 4L 5:11 0:00 0:01 5:12
Luca Caputi 4L 9:38 0:00 1:26 11:04
Michael Zigomanis 4C 4:53 2:01 0:03 6:58
Christian Hanson 4C 7:43 0:36 0:06 8:26
Marcel Mueller 4C 10:01 0:00 0:06 10:07

From these splits we can make the following anticipations based on our current roster:

Player 2010/2011 GP 2010/2011 TOI/GP 2010/2011 TOI (s) 2010/2011 Shots S% Career S% Anticipated 2011/2012 GP Anticipated 2011/2012 TOI/GP Anticipated 2011/2012 TOI (s) Anticipated 2011/2012 Shots Goals based on Career S%
Joffrey Lupul 28 17:51 1071 75 12 10.8 74 17:51 1071 198 21
Tim Connolly 68 16:54 1014 151 7.6 9.3 60 19:38 1178 155 14
Phil Kessel 82 19:38 1178 325 9.8 10.3 74 19:38 1178 293 30
Clarke MacArthur 82 17:06 1026 154 13.6 14.2 74 17:06 1026 139 20
Mikhail Grabovski 81 19:21 1161 239 12.1 12.1 74 19:21 1161 218 26
Nikolai Kulemin 82 17:19 1039 173 17.3 13.6 74 17:19 1039 156 21
Nazem Kadri 29 15:46 946 51 5.9 5.9 74 18:55 1135 156 9
Tyler Bozak 82 19:16 1156 120 12.5 13.5 74 16:07 967 91 12
Colby Armstrong 50 16:07 967 69 11.6 13.1 74 16:07 967 102 13
Mike Brown 50 10:05 605 59 5.1 6.2 74 10:05 605 87 5
Colton Orr 46 5:04 304 14 14.3 6.9 74 5:04 304 23 2
Darryl Boyce 46 11:22 682 27 18.5 18.5 74 10:55 655 42 8
Joey Crabb 48 12:58 776 51 5.9 8.3 64 10:55 655 57 5
Matthew Lombardi* 78 17:56 1076 174 10.9 9.7 22 19:16 1156 53 5
Joe Colborne N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.9 5.9 24 15:46 946 51 2
                       
Carl Gunnarsson 68 18:14 1094 69 5.8 6.1 74 23:45 1425 98 6
Dion Phaneuf 66 25:18 1518 190 4.2 6 74 25:18 1518 213 13
John Michael Liles 76 22:00 1320 163 3.7 7 74 22:28 1348 162 11
Luke Schenn 82 22:22 1342 128 3.9 3.6 74 22:22 1342 116 4
Keith Aulie 40 19:07 1147 32 6.3 6.3 74 13:37 817 42 3
Cody Franson 80 15:10 910 156 5.1 5.1 74 14:50 890 141 7
Mike Komisarek 75 13:37 817 48 2.1 3.1 48 13:37 817 31 1
Total                   2624 240

 What this tells us is that rather than simply calculating the number of shots and thus goals by the number of games played, we should factor in the approximate ice time of each player. When averaging all the ice time predictions I’ve made, we end up with a fair distribution of possible ice time, so there is no inflation. I’ve given Bozak the Ice Time of Colby Armstrong, as they both play 3rd line and the PK. I felt Kadri was roughly equivalent to Versteeg, as they are both smallish wingers who play 3rd line ES but get PP time. John Michael Liles is Kaberle’s replacement. Keith Aulie and Mike Komisarek will play the same sort of minutes, so they get 3rd pairing, with some PK time. Cody Franson also gets 3rd pairing with PP time. The huge guess is that Carl Gunnarson is able to replicate the minutes of Francois Beauchemin. Joey Crabb & Daryl Boyce are now solely 4th liners with some PK time (where last year they were tried on the top unit). Tim Connolly gets Phil Kessel’s ES minutes & PP time, whereas Matthew Lombardi get’s Phil Kessel’s ES minutes & PK time. Joe Colborne play’s Kadri’s minutes from last year. The MGK line keeps their minutes from last year. Lupul, Armstrong, Orr, and Brown all keep their minutes.

When we make these changes, the goal output is almost exactly the same as if we used games played, however, it sees the leafs take about 45 more shots.

The points I made in my first publication are still relevant, except there are a few to add:

  • If all our skaters shoot at their career average S%, we can expect about 240 goals. These averages are based on the assumption that the leafs shoot at the exact same rate as last season, which is unlikely, though they should be similar.
  • Based on the same number of shot totals, we can expect 30 goals from Kessel, 21 goals from Lupul, and 14 goals from Connolly. I believe these numbers to be artificially low, as they are based on the playmaking abilities of Tyler Bozak. Tim Connolly, and even Matthew Lombardi are significant upgrades over Tyler Bozak as far as offense is concerned. If Kessel can score 32 goals last year, he likely increase that production with the passing of Tim Connolly. The same goes for Lupul, who could maybe have 24 instead of 21.
  • While the numbers state that Nicolai Kulemin at his career average Shot % should score only 21 goals, his high shot percentage was a biproduct of his low shot totals, and thus if he increases his shot output from 2.1/gp to, say 2.5/gp, he can bank another 4.6 5 goals.

  • Colby Armstrong is actually a pretty decent shooter (or rebound catcher), and if he is healthy for the above stated 74 games, we can probably bank 15 goals
  • There is hardly a chance that Boyce maintains his 18.5 S%. His high S%, however, is largely a result of his few shots on net, as he averaged only slightly more than 1 shot every 2 games, many less than stay-at-home defensemen Mike Komisarek and Keith Aulie. Even if his S% decreases (it will) his output of shots will probably increase, netting roughly the same goals.
  • While Kadri's current S% says he will score only 8 goals, given that he should be playing against softer competition, as well as the fact that he appears to be a better shooter than 6%, he should probably net somewhere closer to 10-15 goals.
  • Colborne’s numbers are based on Kadri’s last year, which likely contains an artificially low S%. Colborne may actually be good for about 5 goals through his 25 games.

  • Remember that the the top lines’ production above is based on each of them playing 74 games only. Last season Kessel, Bozak, and Kulemin all played 82 games, and Grabovski played 80. It is likely that some of them will play more than 74 games. It may happen that one of them gets injured, however, and decreases their goal output.

  • Remember that these are all predictions, but we shall use these predictions to calculate the Leafs new Win Threshold.

    Barring any injuries to our key contributors, the Leafs are good for about 240 Goals For next year. I would even venture to say they can collect 245 if Kadri’s shooting percentage balances out, and 250 if our players stay healthy. Of course the other side to this is that with a major injury to one of our key players, we could lose 10-20 goals. In this case we could expect around 230-235 goals for. I will run these four numbers by our Win Threshold to determine what kind of save percentage we should be looking for.

    Goals For

    Equation

    Win Threshold

    League Rank

    Conference Rank

    230

    (2542-230)/2542

    0.9095

    16th

    8th

    235

    (2542-235)/2542

    0.9075

    14th

    7th

    240

    (2542-240)/2542

    0.9056

    13th

    6th

    245

    (2542-245)/2542

    0.9036

    12th

    5th

    250

    (2542-250)/2542

    0.9017

    10th

    4th

    Thanks for reading Part II (again). Part III should be posted this week, and will examine our defense and goalies, and how this will affect our Win Threshold.

    PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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