One Team's Trash...

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 8, 2011 10:42 PM EDT

Editor's Note: nhlcheapshot is taking the "Who Will The Leafs Sign" in a different direction and makes a compelling case to want Burke to roll the UFA dice on a much maligned forward once again.

Saw this tweet today:

@renhockey Dale Tallon just told me that he won't make an offer to Steve Bernier. He's now UFA.

Now, I didn't know a lot about Steve Bernier beyond that he was included in the Keith Ballard trade along with Michael Grabner and a 1st round pick.

His stats are not mindblowing:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S%	ATOI
2005-06	20	SJS	NHL	39	14	13	27	4	35	18.7	14:08
2006-07	21	SJS	NHL	62	15	16	31	5	29	14.4	13:35
2007-08	22	TOT	NHL	76	16	16	32	-1	64	12.2	13:20
2008-09	23	VAN	NHL	81	15	17	32	4	27	10.9	13:50
2009-10	24	VAN	NHL	59	11	11	22	0	21	11.6	14:10
2010-11	25	FLA	NHL	68	5	10	15	-14	21	5.2	13:02
Career			NHL	385	76	83	159	-2	197	11.9	13:38

But after a closer look, the situation reminded me of another RFA who was allowed to become UFA....

Now I may be wrong, but looking at those first few years, he had pretty decent production for his age/ice time. Putting up around 15G/year with around 13.5 minutes of ice time, he carved himself a role where he was productive but never had to be the go-to point-producer.

Bernier was drafted 16th overall in the infamous 2003 NHL entry draft, 1 spot before Zach Parise. Since his trade to Florida, his production has fallen off a cliff - 5G, 15 points last year making $2,000,000. Not good. However, he was shooting at 5.2% (Career 11.9%) and had a PDO of 969. Additionally, he wasn't the only one who didn't blossom under Florida's system.

So is Bernier a bust? Or, barring a different set of circumstances, could he have had a breakout year? This is the tale of two players - Clarke MacArthur and Steve Bernier. All MacArthur needed was better linemates, more icetime and increased responsibility to prove he could produce as a Top 6 forward. Bernier may just need to be given the opportunity to do the same.

Let's take a look at some stats comparing the two by Age: Goals/60 minutes of ice time, Points/60 minutes of ice time, Average TOI, and Shooting %:

Now, the situations aren't identical. MacArthur wasn't even available until after his arbitration in August, after many teams had already completed the majority of their offseason shopping. He took a very low salary in what many of us considered a "meh" move for a 3rd liner.

In this situation, Bernier is available while all the teams still have all their money, and an extreme discount might be out of the question - but he's not exactly a premier UFA which would require overpayment either.

So, what say you - is Steve Bernier the type of player the Leafs should "buy low" on?

All stats from Hockey-Reference.com

Poll

With regard to new UFA Steve Bernier, the Leafs should....

... sign him to a 1-year discount deal, see if he can rebound.

192 votes

... lock him up 2-3 years, 26 year olds of his pedigree don't become UFA everyday.

42 votes

... pass. He would only take up a roster spot that is better used on our own players/prospects.

92 votes

... are you kidding? Bernier @*#!ing sucks.

37 votes

363 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Ive seen this guy play Junior and he is pretty good.

He has some pretty good stats think he could very easily pop in 20+ goals and around 50 points. i think maybe we should sign this guy to a cheap two year contract and see what he can do.

by Jt Malley on Jun 8, 2011 9:02 PM EDT reply actions

If we had a place open for him in our lineup, I’d be fine with giving him a shot, but I’m not sure we have room for any more wingers. Our top 4 wingers are set. Our bottom 2 (Orr/Brown) are set. Colby takes one wing on the 3rd line. If Kadri plays wing with Colby, then we have no slots open for wingers. So the only way it makes sense to pick up a guy like Bernier is if we lose one of our other wingers in a trade, or if Kadri starts the year in the AHL.

by Draglikepull on Jun 8, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

I guess I'm always of the belief that

A) Good players earn their ice time, there shouldn’t be any slotted “Top 4” wings. If Kadri, Frattin, etc. produce more than MacArthur, Lupul next year they should be the top wingers. If the price is right, why not? Worst thing that happens is we have an extra “good” player we have to find room for. Oh noes. If he outplays Kadri, I won’t shed a tear seeing Kadri back in the AHL

B) Injuries happen. Depth, especially discount depth, is something we need. We were remarkably lucky with injuries last year.

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 8, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

The top 4 wingers have earned their spots based on their play last year. If they start playing poorly then fine, switch in someone who’s working, but right now those 4 guys have all earned the chance to play in that slot again.

by Draglikepull on Jun 8, 2011 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, we can talk about “finding room” all we want, but I think it should be clear to everyone by now that Burke wants players like Brown and Orr in the lineup. He isn’t going to budge from that.

by Draglikepull on Jun 8, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I traded for him in NHL 11 and it worked out great, so if that’s a thoroughly realistic simulation… :P

Given Burke’s penchant for pulling big trades with little warning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a forward or two shipped out and space open up for someone like Bernier. (Side note: I’d rather it were Kadri than Kulemin.)

by Peregrine on Jun 8, 2011 10:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agree about Kulemin over Kadri. Not sure if I’m the only one, but Kadri seems like a bit of a twat and I have very little faith in his potential.

by Jo4nny on Jun 9, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

you know who else was a bit of a twat? Grabbo

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 9, 2011 7:11 AM EDT up reply actions

You’re right – I think Kadri just needs to get some angry fire in his game before he starts to show real dividends. I just hope it’s not the same way Grabbo did – by being mismanaged and traded.

by Jo4nny on Jun 9, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

We would dump Kadri or Kulemin to make room for Bernier? You’re making a joke, right?

Oh, you better believe that's a paddling.

by JP Nikota on Jun 9, 2011 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I think he meant

they’d be packaged in a deal for a big name player (think unicorn), which would leave a spot to be filled.

Shoebacca - the PK Wookie

by danishmarshmallow on Jun 9, 2011 5:23 AM EDT up reply actions

As a sidenote to this discussion...

When I was comparing the two, I realized that Clark MacArthur is actually a surprisingly good shooter in terms of shooting %.

He’s not flashy, but his 14.2% career shooting puts him at 35th for players > 200 games under their belt since the lockout.

Other players around his shooting %: Bobby Ryan, Dave Bolland, Alex Burrows, Alex Frolov, Pavel Datsyuk, Patrick Marleau…

We all know shooting % isn’t the be-all end-all of production statistics, but it’s good to know he’s not a horrible shot. He may very well be able to produce strongly again next year.

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 8, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions

I was saying this

during the season… why do people insist on not listening?

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 9, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

over saturation of information

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 10, 2011 4:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Dude you post 9000 stats at the same time.

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 10, 2011 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions

His best years were under Wilson so it would be interesting to see what happens if they are reunited. He’s not going to be expensive and at worst he’s Marlies depth so might as well sign him for a couple of years.

Puckin' Eh: Something to read after you've exhausted the good Leafs sites.

by YakovMironov on Jun 8, 2011 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

I’ve always thought he was underperforming his potential. Not that I know anything. I do think you can’t have too many good players, and if there’s another guy for someone like Kadri to have to fight through to make the team, I think that makes him better. Kadri’s a young guy, but probably has more pure skill or upside than Bernier, so if you have both of them pushed to their best, then you get a much better Kadri. I don’t think Wilson cares much about Top 4 vs Top 6 wingers. If the player is good, he’ll play him. I guess the main thing is, Burke wants a big name. Bernier would have to be a replacement for someone who was moved (as mentioned above), or brought in after Burke was unsuccessful in bringing in that big player.

by Leaf in Habland on Jun 9, 2011 6:24 AM EDT reply actions

Bernier’s G/60 have been declining. Not a good sign.

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by Chemmy on Jun 9, 2011 8:55 AM EDT reply actions

I was just gonna say the same thing. MacArthur’s stats were pretty much clustered around his career averages. Bernier’s are sliding down every year.

Appreciate the sentiment, but I’d look for a different target. You want to find someone whose production has dipped for one year, not four in a row.

Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік

by clrkaitken on Jun 9, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

I feel like we have enough players already who in 14 minutes of ice a night can give us 20-30 points in a good year.

Resident Capologist
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік

by clrkaitken on Jun 9, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

This stands

out to me as well… I don’t know a huge amount about him, but I’m curious about his injury history.

Also it doesn’t bode well that he’s moved as often as he as so early in his career.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 9, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions

also

his shooting percentage seems to be sliding as well… I’m guessing he’s losing the desire to drive to the difficult spots on the ice… typically shooting percentages relate to where you shoot from, not who does the shooting (this seems lost on some people).

If he’s seeing a consistent dip in his shooting percentages over time that may have a lot to do with his positioning or desire to hang out in traffic areas.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 9, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

AND

in looking into this on my DELTA SOT Charts from 2007-2010 that’s exactly what happened (his shot locations got worse).

Here are his DELTA SOT, and Raw DELTA numbers from 2007-2010.

San Jose 2007-08: Delta SOT +2.2, Raw DELTA +7.5
Buffalo 2007-08 (traded mid season): Delta SOT +1.7, Raw DELTA +2.7
Vancouver 2008-09: Delta SOT -2.4, Raw DELTA -2.9
Vancouver 2009-10: Delta SOT -3.4, Raw DELTA -3.2

Those are his numbers at 5 on 5… and his numbers dipped on the PP also (they bounced back in 2009-10 in Vancouver though).

Basically his shot locations have gotten progressively worse. To be clear, his best number in that series of years was under Ron Wilson’s coaching staff… that does lend some validity to the idea that he does work well with Wilson et al, but to be fair, here are the comparable seasons for MacArthur:

2007-08 Buffalo: Delta SOT -4.6, Raw DELTA -4.9
2008-09 Buffalo: Delta SOT +1.7, Raw DELTA +2.7
2009-10 Buffalo: Delta SOT -2.7, Raw DELTA -2.6
2009-10 Atlanta (mid season trade): Delta SOT -0.4, Raw DELTA -1.9

So MacArthur’s numbers were also all over the place, and not declining as steadily. I’m seriously wondering how much of this is impacted by coaching (I don’t have this year’s numbers to add to the mix unfortunately, but I would like to obtain them).

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Jun 9, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Bernier has tools but what about intensity and smarts, that could hold him back.

by dsciswe on Jun 9, 2011 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

he’s cheering for boston, you wouldn’t want him

Y'all Heard About Me, You Just Didn't Know It was Me

by JaredFromLondon on Jun 9, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

as much as i think this guy could possibly be a nice pick up,

We have to make sure he fills his personal role and dosent take some of our good prospects spots. But i mean this guy is almost a prospect himself still very young.

by Jt Malley on Jun 9, 2011 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

What? He’s 26

Popped a Colboner - Certified Joe Colborne Fanboy

03/08/2011 - I saw THE Wookie score his 1st NHL goal.

03/19/2011 - Watched Kadri's 1st NHL goal from the West Bank

Twitter me this.

by happiergilmore on Jun 10, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

He showed some decent gumption when he was with the Canucks

But he didn’t get the nickname “stone hands” for nothing

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

"You can't come in my kitchen, kick my dog, and take a box full of ballpoints! Your ass must be crazy!"

by Semi_Colon on Jun 9, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

We had Ponikarovsky and Antropov around for years, we prefer the term ham hands.

The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP

by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jun 9, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

He has been shit, there's no two ways about it

My biggest argument in defense of him is that his shooting is 5.2% vs. his career average of close to 12%… and the PDO of 969. And possibly Florida’s system, but I don’t know it well enough to comment on that.

One of main reasons cited for Phaneuf’s poor play at the start of the year was that he was shooting around 1.5% vs. a 6% career average, and that his numbers would improve by reversion to his mean career shooting percentage. And they did. (ended the year with 4 percent but still much better than the 1.5% he was at mid-year)

I’m not saying he’s going to be the next MacArthur, he was just an example of a similar player at a similar age who wasn’t thriving in the situation he was put in. For a 1-year discount pickup, worst case scenario is the Leafs have to bench, waive, or send him to the minors (if he happens to clear). If he sits on the bench, he wont be a cap-killer, and he’d be gone at year end.

IMO, it’s the epitome of a low-risk high-reward UFA signing. An “asymmetric risk opportunity” if you will. As for “taking a roster spot”, guess what – if he sucks he doesn’t play. We should have a half dozen prospects clamoring to take his spot, and I think that’s how it should be. If he outplays the other players, he deserves the ice time more anyway. And he would take 0 assets to sign – no picks, no prospects, minimal cap space and an SPC.

I think I’m a lot more scared by our lack of depth on this team than anything else. Depth makes the difference between contendors and pretenders.

Alright, rant over. I won’t cry if the Leafs pass, and I’d understand it, but I think it’s a bit of a unique opportunity for a pickup. Clearly FLA didn’t want to qualify him for $2M, so it’s likely he’d get less than that. For $1.5M I think he’s worth the roll of the dice.

Crazy would be NOT overanalyzing everything.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 10, 2011 9:23 AM EDT reply actions