FanPost

Introducing: DSGR

Kessel-allstar_584_medium

Okay, so I don't have a funky name for it yet. Corsi has such a good ring to it, and metrics need a good name. This is by no means a metric on the same plateau--this is not going to revolutionize anything--but I do think it is a pretty neat defining value to discover how dangerous a shooter is.

DSGR stands for Distance, Shots, Goals Related, and as such factors in the Distance Shots are taken from, the Number of shots, and the Goals actually scored as a result of those shots into one value. This metric is not favourable to pass-first players such as the Joe Thornton, Marc Savard, Tim Conolly, Martin St.Louis, etc., but is fair to everyone, as it accounts for the individual number of shots taken, from their respective distances, and the goals they score as a result.

This metric will also play favourably to players who have 'career years' so to speak. If a player has a high shooting percentage--more accurately, an unsustainable shooting percentage, they will score more goals, and as a result their DSGR will be better. Regardless, I think it is still a pretty good metric.

This posting will be in 2 parts, the first looking at the top shooters in the league, and the second looking at the leafs and how they compare. All the data is from Behind the Net, and has just been manipulated to create this metric. Follow the jump to begin!

Let me first begin by explaining that I believe that even among the best goal scorers, the distance from which a shot is taken directly affects its ability to go in. The reasons being for this are numerous: from farther out the goalie has more of a chance to see and stop the shot, a defense can get in the way and cut it off, or even, the shot can be tipped/redirected, thus changing the shooter entirely. The biggest thing though is obviously accuracy--from 5 feet its a lot easier to put it in the net than from 40 feet. Even the best shooters sometimes miss. 

The following graph was created by Gabriel Desjardins and shows scoring chances from different areas of the ice:

Shooting-753770_medium_medium 

Obviously the best scoring chances are from closer to the net. This does not mean that they necessarily go into the net, but they are more likely too without a doubt. As one gets farther away, less scoring chances occur. Here is another graph, created by JP Nikota, which shows the leafs specifically. The first graph is all of the leafs shots from 2010/2011, and the second is the leaf goals.

Total_shots_2_ends_medium_medium

   Away_5v5_goals_medium_medium  

Using these three depictions as some degree of evidence that shot location affects success rate, I have pulled up a list of the top 30 shooters from last year, and plotted them into a graph highlighting their number of goals vs. average shooting distance.

  Shotdicfc_medium

I have added labels to some of the interesting names / outliers just for curiosity's sake. These points represent the top 30 players for number of even strength shots. The dotted line through the middle is the line of best fit, showing a relationship between the number of shots taken and the distance they're taken from. It makes sense that we see that as the number of shots increases, the average distance increases. One can only get so close to the goal before they shoot, and as that takes time, shooting from the outside allows one to take more shots. Looking closer at the graph, aside from perhaps Alex Ovechkin, all of the snipers try to carry the puck closer to the net, knowing that its easier to score from these locations. Anyone who finds themself below the dotted line can be counted on as a goal scorer by their respected team--even Martin St.Louis, who is known to be a set-up man, but still scores 30 goals a year. Players above the line such as Tyler Kennedy, Radim Vrbata, and a declining Mikael Sammuelson are not known to be elite goal scorers--they just take a lot of shots from distant locations.

Shotdijqj_medium 
This next graph takes a look at the top 30 even strength goal scorers from the same year, and examines the relationship between average shot distance and number of goals. While there are many examples of players who are able to shoot from above the average shot distance (Jarome Iginla, Jeff Carter, Steven Stamkos, Rick Nash, Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin), there are also many who like to play the power game and carry it in close, such as Erik Cole and Corey Perry. Since this graph examines the top 30 scorers, each of the names on the list can be seen as great players, though I would venture to say the higher end of the players can score from any location, such as the aforementioned names. Regardless, the line of best fit is declining as goals are scored, for the players who score the most even strength goals tend to do so from a closer location than those who score a middling rate (though they are still in the top 30)

Looking at these relationships, I decided to further examine a selection of shooters, trying to determine if there is a measureable way to express how dangerous a shooter could be. I have derived the following formula:

DSGR = (Distance/S/60/GP)/G

Where Distance is the average distance of the total shots taken
Where S is the total shots taken
Where 60 represents 60 minutes to standardize the equation
Where GP represents the individual number of games played
Where G represents the total number of goals scored

The Lower the Number, the more Dangerous the Player

It is important to note a few things regarding this number:

First, it is favourable to the players receiving the most ice time, but of course these players recieve ice time for a reason. This ice time also affects their shot totals--or it should if they are using it effectively--and thus is standardized.

Second, the value is favourable to players experiencing career years or inflated shooting percentages. Our study will average this inflation out, however.

Third, this metric is of little value to defenseman, though is extremely useful in assessing which defensemen are "offensive defensemen" when looking strictly at defense in relation to each other.

Using Behind the Net's data, I have pulled the the 150 goal scorers from every year, for the last 4 years, at both even strength and the power play (penalty kill omitted) and calculated their DSGR. This data can be found here 

Examining this data, I have compiled the top 10 DSGR players for each year, both ES and on the PP, as well as a few additional elite players:

Here are the top producers at even strength:

NAME NUMBER TOP 10 FINISHES 2010/2011 METRIC 2009/2010 METRIC 2008/2009 METRIC 2007/2008 METRIC RANK
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN 4/4 35.05562579 19.52073733 16.85732323 17.03076923 1
ALEXANDERSEMIN 2/4 58.65853659 29.54152047 35.71283784 72.02184466 10
ALEXKOVALEV 0/4 139.9272727 84.33333333 81.55418719 75.87938705 41
BILLGUERIN 0/4 N/A 103.8278146 82.91506849 66.86444805 38
BOBBYRYAN 1/4 28.96605071 36.34937888 62.80373832 N/A 13
BRENDENMORROW 0/4 59.83253589 166.1142857 434.6666667 73.94642857 36
BROOKSLAICH 0/4 104.4801136 99.49090909 95.96703297 144.6361446 47
COREYPERRY 3/4 25.17255217 34.1967033 26.14772727 56.42076503 3
DANIELBRIERE 1/4 26.3597561 65.06968641 276.2967033 83.77822581 23
DANIELSEDIN 1/4 35.77950311 39.2238806 43.07070707 63.15100671 14
DANYHEATLEY 1/4 87.01252236 52.16557734 46.08527132 36.07258065 21
DAYMONDLANGKOW 0/4 D.N.Q 120.1304348 77.51732673 90.54945055 46
ERICSTAAL 2/4 46.30959752 43.24444444 26.95115878 36.12753623 7
EVGENIMALKIN 1/4 83.57258065 65.44186047 62.61413043 31.86950355 19
HENRIKZETTERBERG 1/4 66.93733451 38.86104007 50.56716418 28.52237049 15
ILYAKOVALCHUK 2/4 55.18125 33.9148073 40.22359914 39.07435345 9
JAROMEIGINLA 2/4 34.44425238 48.98047964 38.36853002 25.59137769 6
JASONBLAKE 1/4 60.8477237 74.45079365 37.18885449 49.97633136 18
JASONSPEZZA 0/4 86.4159292 98.62068966 63.52643678 52.14204545 39
JEFFCARTER 2/4 27.26096334 36.75737705 29.71623932 64.69480519 8
JOEPAVELSKI 1/4 90.81818182 34.7696793 61.26796281 122.8972431 16
JOHANFRANZEN 0/4 49.43638851 202.5 41.86351228 104.1 32
JONATHANTOEWS 0/4 39.34693878 65.14285714 61.36054422 76.68292683 29
KEITHTKACHUK 0/4 N/A 191.67718 133.077381 89.20054945 45
LOUIERIKSSON 0/4 96.6407767 49.38358209 53.1047619 127.7777778 34
MARIANGABORIK 1/4 52.22113821 25.0609319 68.48571429 41.0256 12
MARIANHOSSA 1/4 59.6013289 61.453125 29.61678005 43.97315436 17
MARTINST.LOUIS 1/4 31.38461538 51.22737307 54.36058231 87.60193653 22
NATHANHORTON 0/4 56.76190476 110.7954545 117.7027027 73.97202797 42
OLLIJOKINEN 0/4 89.57042254 81.18 61.13269494 55.69515306 37
PATRICHORNQVIST 0/4 55.3 43.01507538 N/A N/A 26
PATRICKKANE 1/4 38.06941032 35.54220779 69.87341772 95.31623932 24
PATRICKMARLEAU 0/4 41.98886827 36.36199095 40.84011353 136.1454545 25
PATRICKSHARP 0/4 45.46220096 54.55578093 65.60377358 62.3015165 27
PAULSTASTNY 0/4 58.29831933 83.94545455 214.5205479 58.02197802 35
PAVELDATSYUK 0/4 65.9826087 67.09677419 56.30921053 60.26915114 31
PETRSYKORA 0/4 N/A N/A 114.7102804 105.9772575 48
PHILKESSEL 2/4 37.50672646 33.89473684 30.1010101 99.45933014 11
RICKNASH 3/4 29.09090909 48.54693878 34.75471698 34.57286432 4
RYANKESLER 0/4 44.11956522 91.31818182 96.07863696 104.957265 43
RYANMALONE 0/4 235.4651163 83.59615385 86.10328638 85.08823529 44
RYANSMYTH 0/4 73.27659574 61.76696543 50.75543478 77.6146789 33
SIDNEYCROSBY 3/4 32.89534884 24.92962185 39.66666667 36.79204893 2
STEVENSTAMKOS 0/4 35.83703704 45.88279773 103.3666916 N/A 30
TEEMUSELANNE 0/4 86.02987304 67.09090909 120.7142857 193.7302326 40
THOMASVANEK 0/4 49.39512962 67.48514851 68.70588235 56.58854167 28
VINCENTLECAVALIER 1/4 81.11111111 46.85714286 56.46666667 35.69311475 20
ZACHPARISE 2/4 192.1111111 24.38461538 24.93243243 51.05042017 5

Where "N/A" refers to a player that was no longer or had not yet entered the league, and "D.N.Q" refers to a player who played too few games to qualify. Initially, there were "D.N.Q"s wherever a player was not in the top 150 (Daniel Briere in 2008/2009, Brenden Morrow in 2008/2009, Teemu Selanne in 2007/2008), though I have replaced these with the true values, in order to not favour those who were injured, though their small sample sizes do negatively screw their numbers (low goal totals)

And here are the top producers on the power play:

NAME NUMBER TOP 10 FINISHES 2010/2011 METRIC 2009/2010 METRIC 2008/2009 METRIC 2007/2008 METRIC RANK
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN 3/4 491.5555556 155.4428571 77.4717726 95.40232108 4
ALEXANDERSEMIN 0/4 715.4482759 550.9761905 723.755102 289.4347826 44
ALEXKOVALEV 0/4 937.32 2042.173913 482.3265306 193.6172507 43
BILLGUERIN 1/4 N/A 159.3368984 758.0625 931.5 24
BOBBYRYAN 1/4 661.0461538 184.2298456 247.4438503 N/A 21
BRENDENMORROW 1/4 158.9382716 279.1538462 1086.75 198.3557312 10
BROOKSLAICH 1/4 1091.230769 161.85 442.4032258 1875.75 26
COREYPERRY 1/4 125.3207547 519.9545455 198.4666667 184.8347107 13
DANIELBRIERE 0/4 425.6 425.625 911.4285714 250.4659091 35
DANIELSEDIN 1/4 167.4166667 370.8409091 249.7272727 248.6031746 14
DANYHEATLEY 3/4 260 101.7931034 164.9855769 171.4574468 3
DAYMONDLANGKOW 1/4 D.N.Q 13515.42857 495.9705882 145.7988166 18
ERICSTAAL 1/4 188.153605 229.0909091 196.3806818 238.4693878 11
EVGENIMALKIN 3/4 406.35 171.5853659 181.425 172.2 5
HENRIKZETTERBERG 2/4 209.3114754 1067.032258 247.0960452 118.1707317 6
ILYAKOVALCHUK 1/4 575.1 220.1038961 250.8 175.8262987 17
JAROMEIGINLA 1/4 260.7684391 479.1372549 335.3490566 133.1468813 16
JASONBLAKE 0/4 1197 536.4166667 408.6 1020.716418 48
JASONSPEZZA 1/4 532.2926829 346.6666667 184.8596491 344.5333333 20
JEFFCARTER 0/4 299.9641791 194.630137 284.0714286 544.7142857 32
JOEPAVELSKI 0/4 257.6785714 1134.097561 333.2330827 608.4734694 45
JOHANFRANZEN 0/4 325.9099099 621 199.0401691 189.5051975 33
JONATHANTOEWS 0/4 256.969697 220.2272727 198.4055944 410.4827586 29
KEITHTKACHUK 1/4 N/A 428.8 191.328125 354.01875 19
LOUIERIKSSON 1/4 207.375 501.9393939 684.5217391 3363.75 27
MARIANGABORIK 0/4 414.5142857 207.2727273 2315.4 247.8823529 30
MARIANHOSSA 0/4 386.6233766 2038.32 302.5777778 385.92 34
MIKECAMMALLERI 1/4 504.0952381 723.9375 130.2631579 238.2857143 15
NATHANHORTON 0/4 645.1612903 555.4017857 923.9516129 660.1 47
OLLIJOKINEN 1/4 582.3428571 1691.25 302.6896552 159.1300161 25
PATRICHORNQVIST 0/4 317.9268293 222.6086957 D.N.Q N/A 28
PATRICKKANE 0/4 788.4 488.4857143 210.8474576 467.7727273 41
PATRICKMARLEAU 0/4 254.2 235.75 332.4387097 692.1473684 37
PATRICKSHARP 0/4 266.9803922 1011.675 276.7317073 496.5517241 42
PAULSTASTNY 0/4 501.0857143 271.152439 344.1758242 1635.652174 36
PAVELDATSYUK 0/4 D.N.Q 473.6842105 305.0425532 475.2272727 39
PETRSYKORA 1/4 N/A N/A 259 176.3425254 12
PHILKESSEL 0/4 275.1555556 651.3888889 508.59375 918.9655172 46
RICKNASH 0/4 573.0612245 291.6 460.3902439 301.3333333 38
RYANKESLER 1/4 132.8325792 285.1363636 368.4938272 1336.363636 23
RYANMALONE 1/4 171.1125 486.1363636 520 389.2 22
RYANSMYTH 2/4 387.2222222 189.4949495 192.5 829.7142857 8
SIDNEYCROSBY 0/4 231.4791667 230.5384615 319 536.36 31
STEVENSTAMKOS 2/4 187.2774194 102.7893845 467.875969 N/A 7
TEEMUSELANNE 3/4 108.3337278 189.4643735 98.57142857 269.568 2
THOMASVANEK 3/4 220.3846154 170.4 114.8676471 124.1131222 1
VINCENTLECAVALIER 0/4 440.1428571 603.9615385 320.641791 449.1818182 40
ZACHPARISE 1/4 D.N.Q 264.4897959 121.726122 228.7636364 9

Because of the limited PP ice time and shots, these numbers are all much higher than the even strength numbers. This will be accounted for momentarily.

Rather than looking at the Power Play and Even Strength numbers separately for the league's top shooters, we want to combine these numbers to see who is more dangerous all around. For although we can see that Steven Stamkos has been the league's most dangerous shooter in the past 2 years, right with Teemu Selanne, neither of these players are as dominant at even strength.

NHL.com shows that an average of 6 minutes are played on the power play per game for each team. In a ~60 minute game, 6 minutes represents 1/10 of the time played. For this reason, we want to multiply the even strength metric by 9 (9/10 of the game), and average the powerplay and evenstrength DSGRs. Rather than average, we could simply add them together, though there is really no difference, unless you're specifically talking about what DSGR reflects, rather than what it represents.

We also want to look at the average of players over 4 years, to eliminate inflation. The following table reflects the averaged values of the Powerplay and Even Strength DSGR, and the rank over 4 years, 3 years, 2 years, and 1 year.

 

NAME 4 YEARS 3 YEARS 2 YEARS 1 YEAR 2010/2011 Rank 2009-2011 Rank 2008-2011 Rank 2007-2011 Rank
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN 202.0065758 227.8955604 284.5464202 403.5280938 18 4 1 1
ERICSTAAL 278.2236521 277.0286671 305.807723 302.4699914 8 8 5 2
COREYPERRY 288.2520509 268.8991352 294.8996498 175.9368621 1 5 2 3
SIDNEYCROSBY 315.7413506 276.4070607 245.6105911 263.7686531 4 1 4 4
JAROMEIGINLA 316.8579237 361.8990182 372.6820705 285.3833552 7 14 10 5
DANIELSEDIN 333.4517376 308.4419442 303.3220073 244.7160973 2 7 6 6
DANYHEATLEY 336.2824615 365.6915033 403.5990002 521.5563506 27 18 12 7
ILYAKOVALCHUK 342.1720355 368.3134673 399.267103 535.865625 29 17 13 8
JEFFCARTER 343.6555618 270.3794937 267.6898449 272.6564246 6 3 3 9
THOMASVANEK 351.167213 362.6546178 360.6767796 332.470391 13 13 11 10
PATRICHORNQVIST 356.3428008 356.3428008 356.3428008 407.8134146 20 11 8 11
RICKNASH 368.634208 389.4307587 390.8504638 417.4397032 21 15 15 12
BOBBYRYAN 374.2987268 374.2987268 358.2787164 460.8703051 24 12 14 13
EVGENIMALKIN 390.3803802 444.0029183 479.766334 579.2516129 34 23 20 14
STEVENSTAMKOS 403.953585 403.953585 256.3863292 254.9053763 3 2 17 15
JONATHANTOEWS 408.6105907 361.3759376 354.4012832 305.546073 9 10 9 16
HENRIKZETTERBERG 413.2002117 488.4549379 557.1322762 405.873743 19 33 26 17
ZACHPARISE 431.5349939 458.6962179 619.3602826 1729 44 35 21 18
MARTINST.LOUIS 452.219022 431.8415055 492.8851585 393.2783883 17 25 19 19
VINCENTLECAVALIER 474.3850404 504.1100787 548.9546703 585.0714286 35 32 27 20
PATRICKMARLEAU 476.5704905 315.8512441 298.7769333 316.0499072 11 6 7 21
PAVELDATSYUK 489.857302 478.7645811 536.2707168 593.8434783 36 29 25 22
RYANSMYTH 496.2068164 406.9013559 448.0273056 523.355792 28 22 18 23
ALEXANDERSEMIN 505.3783759 517.5659371 515.056245 621.6875526 37 28 29 24
PATRICKSHARP 512.9060339 507.6638165 544.7043073 338.0701004 14 30 28 25
PATRICKKANE 513.0896719 463.1830824 484.8475693 565.5123464 32 24 22 26
JASONSPEZZA 514.3372802 550.1477499 636.0722298 655.0180229 38 37 31 27
PHILKESSEL 520.3449929 391.4434092 392.2894035 306.3580468 10 16 16 28
PETRSYKORA 605.3825916 645.6962617 N/A N/A N/A N/A 35 29
MARIANHOSSA 608.1550812 680.59371 878.6083654 461.5176684 25 42 37 30
MARIANGABORIK 608.2762282 708.1828454 329.331411 442.2522648 23 9 38 31
TEEMUSELANNE 609.2531542 476.8141901 418.9712851 441.3012926 22 21 23 32
JOHANFRANZEN 614.569298 631.691531 803.5843516 385.4187032 16 41 34 33
JOEPAVELSKI 640.157536 567.7852717 630.5167206 537.5211039 30 36 32 34
RYANKESLER 643.8861559 478.3517043 409.2271665 264.9543331 5 19 24 35
JASONBLAKE 645.6133017 615.7338355 737.7758307 872.3147567 40 39 33 36
OLLIJOKINEN 665.4521204 777.2050949 952.586665 694.23833 39 44 41 37
BILLGUERIN 688.5608964 649.5213365 546.8936148 N/A N/A 31 36 38
RYANMALONE 747.3404987 803.9549787 882.2000737 1145.149273 43 43 43 39
NATHANHORTON 752.2129373 781.9758745 677.1448275 578.0092166 33 38 42 40
DANIELBRIERE 759.5823531 845.3648139 418.5224956 331.4189024 12 20 44 41
KEITHTKACHUK 783.290478 885.7297933 1076.94731 N/A N/A 45 45 42
PAULSTASTNY 810.6428562 721.215479 513.1080295 512.8852941 26 27 39 43
ALEXKOVALEV 886.3356646 1035.692264 1249.459842 1098.332727 42 46 46 44
BROOKSLAICH 946.5502247 732.4877494 772.2049934 1015.775896 41 40 40 45
LOUIERIKSSON 962.4685274 530.9997032 505.8834058 538.5709951 31 26 30 46
BRENDENMORROW 1041.779638 1245.060585 617.903378 348.7155473 15 34 47 47
DAYMONDLANGKOW 2791.828814 3947.557253 7298.301242 N/A N/A 47 48 48

While we see that Corey Perry was indeed the best goal scorer last year, Ovechkin has been the most consistent over four years. Perry, surprisingly, has been really good over the last 4 years--he just had a great year last year.

And while this graph is hard to follow, graphs are fun. Remember, the lower the player on the graph, the better the shooter.

Dsgrtime_medium

 And there you have it! Leave some comments, and Part II will look at the Leafs and how they have faired (again, over the last 4 years), and who their most dangerous scorers were. Hint: It's not Sundin ;)

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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