Prediction Series: 2011-2012 Eastern Conference Standings

I think your predictions are pretty spot on. The optimist in me believes that the Leafs will beat out the Canadiens for 8th.

Since the unholy birth of the Eastern Conference (and likely well before that, but I got tired of checking), it has never been the case that the 8 playoff teams from one year have all made it back to the playoffs in the following year. I’m going to stick with history on this one, and suggest that one of, if not both, the Canadiens and the Lightning don’t make it.

I think the tiers in the East are:

Heavyweights:
Washington, Boston

Cruiserweight:
Buffalo, Tampa, Philly

Bubble teams:
Montreal, Toronto, Rangers, Winnipeg, Islanders, Carolina, Devils

Lottery:
Ottawa, Florida

Wildcard:
Pittsburgh
.The Pens are a huge wildcard. Fleury is not the most important factor: he could post a .910 and they could still contenders. The big thing for them is Crosby and Malkin. Remember how good those 2 can actually be?

I hate to say this, but I think Montreal is a lot better than people are giving them credit for (based mostly on an ‘overachieving’ point total based on pythagorean wins).

However, they did really, really well in terms of controlling the play last year, and had bad shooting luck. They also have a very good goaltender. Their system seems to be very successful at keeping play in their opponents’ zone, such that even with a poor shooting% season like last season, they can still make the playoffs.

I’d expect them to finish towards the bottom half of the playoff bracket, but I think there are other teams more likely to fall out of the playoffs (Philadelphia, Tampa, maybe even the Rangers).

I don’t think FLA will be that bad.

I hate to be a grammar nazi but watch the there/they’re/their!

1) Washington
I agree with most of what you said here. McPhee pretty much had a perfect off-season, getting Vokoun at a steal of a price, Hamrlik is an adequate short-term replacement for Hannan, and they didn’t tinker too much (and have a potential lottery pick to boot). I think they addressed a lot of their needs this off-season, and if it they don’t get a deep run this year, I think Boudreau’s done and they seriously consider making some San Jose/Philly style changes next summer.

2) Boston
AKA the year in which Seguin begins to haunt Leaf fans for the next decade. Their defence continues to be wildly overrated because Corvo is a worse version of Kaberle. If Boychuk, Ference and McQuaid can’t step up like Chiarelli seems to believe they can, and Thomas falls back to earth, they could stumble.

3) Pittsburgh
On any other team, Crosby’s unknown status would be devastating. This year is going to be Jordan Staal’s coming out party and I think he makes Malkin expendable for help elsewhere. The supporting cast has been shored up with the Neal trade last year. Sid comes back by Christmas and these guys take off.

4) Carolina
Every 3rd year, for whatever reason, these guys suddenly become amazing again. 2002, 2006, 2009. It’s their turn again. Rutherford did a real nice job in the free agent market, getting his own guys re-signed pretty cheaply, upgrading from Corvo to Kaberle. They quietly amassed a nice little stable of young prospects; Sutter, Skinner, Zac Dalpe, McBain, and added Ryan Murphy this year. Carolina will push ahead of the East’s bubble benefitting from the Southleast but Cam Ward will probably drag them to the 2nd round.

5) NY Rangers
I’m concerned that their offence now hinges on a 31-year-old coming off of a concussion and one of the most brittle players in the league. But for once they’re actually building a very solid supporting cast with guys like Callahan, Dubinsky, and Anisimov, and Staal and Girardi anchor an underrated defence playing in front of one of the best goalies in the league. This ranking hinges on getting 140 games out of the Richards/Gaborik. They’ll miss the playoffs if they don’t get that out of them.

6) Buffalo
While I think BCapp overrates them (Stafford will regress from his second-half surge, Pominville’s an injury question mark, and Leino’s pretty overrated), the team as it is isn’t much different from the one that finished 7th last season. They spent money like a drunken sailor but all the money seemed to go to luxury players and they still have some pretty glaring holes up the middle (after Roy) and on defence. Miller needs to rebound because last season he was pretty average.

7) Montreal
Carey Price is good. Andrei Markov won’t stay healthy all year. Toronto wins the season series. They lose to Boston in the first round. We’ve been here before.

8) New Jersey
The team that lit up the league in the second half of the year starts out on a ridiculous tear. Then Parisemania starts causing distractions, the fact that their goaltenders are a combined 77 years old catches up to them and Brodeur starts to falter, and they back into the playoffs and get obliterated by a much better Caps team.

9) Tampa Bay
I think expectations in Tampa are going to be pretty high and they did not do a lot in the off-season to improve their team. They lost some of their depth by losing Bergenheim and Gagne, and Roloson really started to show his age in the playoffs. Tampa Bay loses some ground thanks to what I see is a surge from the Hurricanes and misses out.

10) Philadelphia
They’re putting an awful lot on the shoulders of their now young core. While Giroux and Van Riemsdyk might prove to be capable of filling the offensive load of Carter and Richards, are the likes of Schenn, Voracek and Simmonds ready to fill the secondary scoring provided by Giroux and Van Riemsdyk? I don’t think so. I also think that Pronger’s pretty much done and they don’t have a whole lot beyond Coburn.

11) Toronto
Basically everything we looked at said we need to improve the goal differential by about 35 to realistically make the playoffs. I think we’ll get about halfway there, dropping the goals against by about 12 and picking up about a half dozen goals. Overall I’m pleased with the direction and I definitely think we improve on the 85 points last year (I’m guessing about 89 this year), but I don’t think we are skilled enough (yet) to get by some of these other teams.

12) NY Islanders
If it wasn’t for the fact that half of this team is going to make league minimum to offset the other half that’s actually worthy of an NHL contract I’d be real bullish on these guys. Also their goaltending looks to be a hot mess again, because they probably have about 7 guys competing for an NHL job and I don’t know if any of them would be higher than #2 on any other teams’ depth chart.

13) Ottawa
Senators fans should become very accustomed to Jared Cowen getting burned on the outside by the speedy forwards from every other team in their division. Murray put a few real nice pieces in the cupboard, like Rundblad and Zibanajed, but this is still an ongoing rebuild. Anderson/Lehner play just well enough to keep the Sens from getting someone who would really help them, and forcing Murray to nail a draft pick in the 5-8 range again.

14) Florida
If I need someone to raze my franchise and stockpile draft picks to build up the prospect pool, I call Dale Tallon. As soon as I need someone to put some free agents in place to accentuate what I’m trying to build, I call anyone but Dale Tallon. if Tomas Vokoun and a year-over-year 920 SV% couldn’t get these guys anywhere, what’s Theodore going to be able to do?

15) Winnipeg
I don’t think this franchise has made a competent move in the calendar year, and it still won’t matter because they’ll sell out every game. It’s a good thing Nail Yakupov has been playing his OHL hockey in Sarnia as he’ll be adequately prepared for the soul-crushing boredom of Winnipeg.

Liked everything you said except the leafs prediction. Think you forgot to factor in some things.

Step 1: Somethings
Step 2: ???
Step 3: PLAYOFFS!!!!1

Its going to be a great season!

I think the Rangers defense gets sold a little short because of the strong performances of Lundqvist on an annual basis. While it might have been true earlier in his career that he was the undisputed backbone of the Rangers D, the defensive ability of the top 4 (Staal-Girardi and McDonagh-Sauer) is fairly strong in their own right. However they don’t provide much in the way of offense. As for their forwards, health is obviously an issue for their biggest guns in Richards and Gaborik, but also guys like Dubinsky and Callahan are prone to picking up an injury due to their grinding style of play as evidenced by Callahan missing 20 games last year due to block shots against both Pittsburgh and the Bruins. I think they had some players that overachieved a little last year like Boyle and possibly Stepan who might see a dip in production if he’s slotted as 3rd line center, but there was also nice growth in players like Artem Anisimov who managed to increase his points quite nicely while moving up from more/less 4th line role to 2C.

Even without the services of Crosby for an indefinite period, the Penguins still have to be considered the division favorites. And I would say this has a lot to due with how strong their defense performed last year as much as havig a healthy Malkin. The upgrades they made prior to last season certainly paid dividends and I’d be willing to bet had no small part in helping Fleury get past his poor start of the season and put in what was arguably his finest regular season of his career. When and if Crosby does return they are primed to take the Eastern Conference crown.

The Flyers are a tough team to figure out. Losing a 150 or so points a year from Richards and Carter will be tough to replace. Do Claude Giroux and Dany Briere repeat last year’s performances? Is JvR ready to take his game up a notch or two? Looking at their defense, does the reliance on heavy minutes for Pronger and Timmonen start to reach the land of diminishig returns? I think a lot of those questions will determine the reboot of the Flyers more so than how well Bryzgalov fares.

It was the tale of two season for the Devils. Under MacLean they were aimless and Lemaire came in to restore order. So now they have yet another new coach, who’s system may or may not mesh well with Kovalchuk. I’m less concerned about Parise who seems to play well under any style, although a coming back from a knee injury isn’t a trivial matter. A very thin center ice and raw defense playing in front of an aging Brodeur could see New Jersey struggle to return to the playoff picture where they had so often resided for the past two decades.

I’m tempted to say that this is the year where things start to come to together for the Islanders. The nucleus of talent among their forwards look likes it could really turn into a decent offensive force. A full season out of both Okposo and Streit should up their goal scoring. Their weakness however will still be on defense and goaltending. They could very well end up being sort of a Lightning-lite, where scoring isn’t a problem but giving up as much as they score is.

Without reading your predictions-here is mine:

1. Washington
2. Pittsburgh
3. Boston
4. Buffalo
5. Tampa
6. Philly
7. NY Rangers
8. New Jersey
9. Toronto
10. Carolina
11. Montreal
12. NY islanders
13. Florida
14. Winnepeg
15. Ottawa

I will admit that 7 through 11 are almost completely interchangeable depending on a lot of scenarios.
Time to read your post!

Seem like they could be a 8 to 13 type team. think toronto and new jersey will be more in it i mean brodeaur kovulchuck a full season of parise there going to be a good team if you ask me. Think the pens wont win there division. Philli. But the pens could i mean there a wierd team crosby comes back full strenth there great. he dosent and malkin is a bit slow they lost talbot they could struggle a little for pens standards.

The East will shape up something like this:

DIVISION CHAMPS: Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston (in that order).

PLAYOFF TEAMS: Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia (in that order).

BUBBLE TEAMS: Montreal, Toronto, NY Rangers, Carolina, New Jersey (not in that order).

BOTTOM FEEDERS: NY Islanders, Florida, Winnipeg (in that order).

REALLY, REALLY FUCKING TERRIBLE: Ottawa.

As for the West:

DIVISION CHAMPS: Vancouver, Los Angeles, Chicago (in that order)

PLAYOFF TEAMS: San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim, Nashville (probably that order)

BUBBLE TEAMS: St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas. (not in that order)

TEAMS THAT PROFESS TO BE BUBBLE TEAMS BUT IN REALITY DON’T HAVE A HOPE IN HELL: Calgary.

BOTTOM FEEDERS: Columbus, Phoenix, Colorado. (in that order)

GONNA BE RATHER DISAPPOINTED WHEN THEY REALIZE THEY’RE ONLY GETTING A NO. 2 PICK THIS YEAR: Edmonton.

While I agree with you with numbers 1, 2, & 3, and 5, I think We disagree with 4th seed. I think that will be Tampa Bay. While I agree with you with your statement about the Tampa Goaltending being Iffy at best and hard to predict but Rolo reminds me of Gump Worsley .. an old ugly cagey Goalie who got better and better as he got older.

I disagree with Buffalo being 3rd because … like I have said.. this team coached by Lindy Ruff has a big tendency to sit back and watch how many Saves Miller can make while not even getting out there and trying to move up ice and score. They have been bounced out of the playoffs first round allot lately and thats a coaching issue as well.

While I am a fan of FLYERS I agree they should be 5th but .. you mentioned Powe.. he is gone.. but they have some good young guns in Andreas Nodl, Eric (I am not the fat one) Wellwood, Tom Sestito, Zack Rinaldo, & Mike Testwuide .. add in Max Talbot and Jagr and that makes a 3rd and 4th line Depth.

I have Buffalo 6th for the reasons why as I stated above and Montreal 7th for similar reasons you have them 8th But I do not have the NY Rangers in the top 8th at all !! I have them 9th (HAHA !) and just missing the playoffs because I think that the team has allot of holes in their lineup and questionable healthy players and questionable Chemistry and a Head Coach thats becoming more of a Head Case than a Head Coach. Torts is a modern day Mike Keenan.

Who Do I have 8th ? Surprise ! Toronto Maple Leafs !!

Here is what I got below

1. Capitals
2. Bruins
3. Penguins
4. Lightning
5. FLYERS
6. Sabres
7. Canadiens
8. Maple Leafs
9. Rangers
10. Hurricanes
11. Devils
12. Jets
13. Senators
14. Panthers
15. Islanders (Again in the Basement ~ going to start wearing game day Wool Sweaters instead of Jerseys because its damp and cold in the basement!)

Thats my Opinion… That opinion with a Toonie can get you a large cup of Timmy Ho’s Coffee.

I’d have to agree with you on almost all counts. The only thing that I can really disagree on is Boston being so high, and the bubble teams, but of course bubble teams can end up anywhere and only time will tell with them. As far as Boston, while goaltending carries teams, I just don’t think that it can propel Boston to 2nd in the east. I would definitely say they will finish in the top 4 and win the Northeast, but I don’t see them finishing 2nd.

As for the Leafs… Well, everyone’s either saying 8th or 9th, so I guess we should all just cheer PLAYOFFS really loud and hope for the best.