FanPost

Common Misconceptions: How Much Should That Forward Score?

Kessel_scores_medium

Hey guys and gals, I am starting a new series of fan posts that I have been meaning to write for a while, called "Common Misconceptions". There are a lot of hockey fans out there (myself included before I got here) who have misunderstandings and false assumptions about a lot of things in NHL hockey (from waiver rules to the PPG centre), so I am making this series to clear some of them up.

This first article will focus on how much different players can be "expected" to score, or in other words to see what a typical ____ liner will score. The misconceptions that I am attempting to illustrate are ones like the following:

  • A first line centre is a point per game (or 80+ point) centre
  • A top 6 forward has to score 55 points or 25 goals
  • Scoring 30 goals is relatively common
  • A first line winger scores 30 goals or 70 points
  • (For Ubiquitous) Derek Roy is not a first line centre

Read on for the truth behind these and related misconceptions, revolving around what people expect out forwards for goals and points.

Outline of Methodology

I am going to illustrate how many points and goals a "good", "average", and "poor" player will score in a season, for each of the top 9 forwards. To illustrate this I will take an average of what the 5th and 6th, 15th and 16th, and 25th and 26th player have scored in that position in the last 3 years to determine what a good, average, and poor player can be expected to score (and the same for 2nd and 3rd liners). For example to figure out what can be expected out of a 2nd line left winger I will average the points of the following LW over the last 3 years: 35th and 36th (for a good second line LW), 45th and 46th LW (for average 2nd line LW), and 55th and 56th LW (for poor 2nd line LW).

The Numbers

Centres

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

85

70

60

53

49

44

40

36

31

Goals

34

27

23

21

19

17

15

14

12

Left Wing

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

74

58

50

42

37

29

24

19

14

Goals

34

27

22

19

16

13

11

8

6

Right Wing

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

74

58

50

45

37

31

23

19

16

Goals

32

27

23

19

17

13

11

8

6

Keep in mind that this is actual production (not point per game) so it takes into account injuries.

Some Comments

I'll keep this general (ie not necessarily about the Leafs) as this is just a post on 'misconceptions':

  • Only top end first line C's are above 80 points. If you have a winger that can crack 70 points you have an elite winger.
  • If you have a winger who scores 60 points thats an average first line winger
  • A player who scores 30+ goals is top end production for his position and high 20s is average first line production.
  • Typical 2nd line winger is only scoring about 37 points (remember this takes into account injuries)
  • A good 2nd line winger is getting 45ish points
  • A good 2nd line centre scores just over 50 points
  • If running a 1a/1b C system I would aim to get 120 points out of the pair (that is the same output as the 70 points from a 1C and 50 points from a 2C)

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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