PPP's Top 25 Under 25 - #19 Sondre Olden
by clrkaitken on Jan 12, 2012 11:45 AM EST
in Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects
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Based on the reputation certain teams in the NHL have for scouting and drafting talent late in the draft, if you had to steal a European forward in a later round out from under one team, you'd probably want to be poaching the Detroit Red Wings.
In the 3rd round of the 2010 NHL Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs made a trade with the Los Angeles Kings to acquire their 79th pick in the draft so they could move ahead of the Wings and take Olden, a lanky Norwegian centre who had just completed a strong season in Sweden's junior leagues. The Leafs were enamoured with his offensive skill set but also with his two-way play. And as one of the youngest players selected in the 2010 Draft, Olden would have plenty of time to add the size needed to compete at the pro level (6'3", 176 at the time of the draft) and develop his game.
The forward was always expected to be something of a long-term project, but just one and a half years into his development he has been slowly progressing. Olden's future potential secures him spot #19 on our list of the top 25 Leafs under 25.
As a 17-year old, Olden progressed rapidly as a player after making the move from his native Norway to MODO in Sweden, scoring an eye-popping 26 points in 8 games in the J18 league, and then graduating to the J20 league where he continued his scoring clip by contributin 27 point sin 32 games. He also shone for Norway's international squads, accumulating 22 points in 5 games at the Under 18 Championships (Division 1) and 4 points in 5 games at the Under 20 Championships (Division 1), helping Norway achieve promotion to the main tournament.
The following year he would score 22 points in 30 games at the J20 league, and made his professional debut playing 3 games for the MODO Senior team, which finished last in the SEL that season. He also was selected again to represent Norway at the World Junior Championships held in Buffalo, but was held pointless through 6 games as an overmatched Norway side was relegated. After the season he would move to North America to play for the Erie Otters with fellow Leaf prospect Greg McKegg.
This season of transition to the North American game has not been easy on Olden. Erie has had an awful season, languishing at the bottom of the OHL all season, and Olden has managed just 15 points in 22 games (along with a -22 rating that compared to some of his peers isn't actually that bad). Olden missed a good period of time in November due to an injury, and left the team in December to represent his country for a third consecutive year at the U20 Championships. Olden scored 8 points in 5 games for Norway (back in Division 1) as Norway failed to achieve promotion.
Olden turned 19 just before the start of the current hockey season, so he'll be almost certainly returning to Erie next year for an overage season with the Otters. However, at the conclusion of this season he'll have been two years removed from his draft year, so the Leafs probably have to make a decision this spring on whether to offer him an ELC or let him re-enter the draft.
| JP Nikota | PPP | Chemmy | SkinnyFish | birky | PFACNF | clrkaitken |
| 19 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
Overall the group seemed to find consensus for Olden at #19, with little variance except for SkinnyFish putting him much higer at #14, and myself dropping him down to 22.
For me, Olden's potential definitely merited him a spot in the Top 25. If he can fulfill his potential, I think he has a bit of a higher ceiling than some of the other prospects in the Leafs system, many of whom have a lower ceiling as a player but are probably more likely to reach it.
The problem is that to date, Olden's body of work is pretty limited and what's there hasn't blown me away. He's certainly been dealt an unlucky hand; he's played in three U20 Championships, twice in the second tier and once where his team got blown away, his only pro experience came for a last-place team in the SEL, and he jumped to the OHL only to land on the worst team in the league. And now his fellow Leaf prospect isn't even there anymore.
Still 19, Olden has time on his side and hopefully the Otters will improve enough that he can give a stronger showing in his overage year next season.
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Still 19, Olden has time on his side
This is pretty much how I did my rankings for most of the prospects. The younger the were, the better I rated them. It’s like throwing darts. The farther you stand back, the most areas you can hit. The closer you stand, the less areas. Hence, why he’s higher for me.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
What this series is shown me is that the NHL needs to find a much better way of controlling development of their players. You draft a kid like Olden and he ends up playing for a shitty Erie team. You have no control over how he is coached, or what type of ice-time he gets. I really think the NHL needs to adopt something similar to baseball. Obviously the CHL would object to the idea but player development within an organization shouldn’t start when the player signs his first NHL deal and gets to the AHL.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
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I also write things about stuff over at the Leafs Nation
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jan 12, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Is there any reason the Maples Leafs couldn’t offer Erie an incentive to trade him to a better situation (e.g., cash)?
The Maple Leafs influenced Tyler Biggs’ decision to attend Miami over playing for the Oshawa Generals.
The NHL teams can’t interfere in that way you’re suggesting because the CHL has proprietary rights over these guys. What you are finding is that certain CHL teams have pretty good alliances with certain CHL programs (best examples; Edmonton OIl Kings are owned by the OIlers and now stock up on Oilers prospects).
What makes Olden’s situation tougher is that CHL teams can only carry up to three import players (ie Europeans). So if you tried to trade Olden to another team, they likely have to move another one of their import players to accomodate him.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
It just seems like the least efficient way to develop players. The system wasn’t designed to meet that need. It needs to be overhauled. Imagine all the Leafs draft picks being able to play similar to the Marlies, same systems top down.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
I also write things about stuff over at the Leafs Nation
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jan 12, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
that relies on the assumption that the CHL is nothing more than a feeder league for NHL clubs. Large sections of the country would bristle at that.
I get the spirit of this suggestion, that NHL clubs need to be looking out for their assets as early as possible. But it’s a slippery slope from that to the days where an NHL team is in charge of absolutely everything from the day they draft a kid at 18 until he becomes a UFA.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
I’m not suggesting it is, I’m saying it should be. Or at least there needs to be such a league.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jan 12, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
ah
different question i guess.
Considering its aptitude at cranking out NHLers and its ability to actually take the initiative on things like player safety, etc. i’m inclined to leave the CHL well enough alone.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
One barrier to that idea is that CHL teams are ostensibly/theoretically in the same level of competition. Obviously the Otters are terrible and other teams are perennial contenders but you can’t spread the 59 CHL teams out very neatly if you want to give each NHL squad a farm team below it’s AHL affiliate.
They used to do this though… I wonder when the OHL teams stopped acting as farm teams for original 6 teams.. my guess is around 1967.
Let the Wookie win.
Twitter is a thing!
My thought was to use something like the ECHL for players that are drafted but not old enough to play in the AHL. OHL becomes a league for undrafted players and over-agers.
Just spitballing here.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
I also write things about stuff over at the Leafs Nation
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jan 12, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
OHL becomes a league for undrafted players and over-agers.
You can understand why the CHL would be opposed to this, and willing to do some ridiculous stuff to make it not happen.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Oh absolutely, but if the goal is for NHL teams to properly develop talent, the existing system is woefully inadequate.
The Leafs are my Rushmore
Certified Grabbo Lover and member of the PPPPP
I also write things about stuff over at the Leafs Nation
by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Jan 12, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
There were larger reasons behind why these junior affiliations ended, if I recall. In the 1940s, the Frank Selke (I think) was the first managing director to actually develop a farm system for his players—the Canadiens at the time had junior affiliations with teams across Canada as well as dozens of “amateur” teams. One of the best stories from that era came in the 1950s when they tried so hard to sign Jean Beliveau from his amateur Quebec Aces team. The Habs went so far as to buy the team and install coaches that would allow Beliveau to develop the way they felt was best. Finally, when Beliveau rejected their offer a third time, Selke was given the cash to buy the entire amateur Quebec league and thereby paving the way for Montreal to sign him.
Obviously, this kind of thing could never happen today. I would also like to point out that NHL teams can recommend that their drafted European players come to North America. It doesn’t mean the player will want to but it’s falls under the same category as asking a kid playing NCAA hockey to player major-junior in Canada. It has happened and continues to happen more than you’d think.
Lifelong Leafs Fan living in Habs Country.
by JeanValjean on Jan 12, 2012 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Also
I meant to point out that this could be the case with Olden but without asking him or his agent directly, there’s no way of knowing. The only cases where I know this to be true is in the case of the Canadiens’ Louis Leblanc who was playing for Harvard and the organization asked him to develop in the Q upon signing him to an ELC.
The Flames did it with Mikael Backlund, again making it a condition of his ELC, IIRC.
Obviously, the difference with Olden would be that he’s not under contract with the Leafs but acclimating himself with the North American game certainly can’t hurt his development. Also sounds like there was something happening behind the scenes since most import players are taken at 17 or 18 whereas Olden was drafted by Erie at age 19.
One of the things I learned about the CHL Import Draft is that most of the players available for selection have often announced that they want to play in the CHL. Teams almost never select a player without knowing if that import player will come to North America.
Lifelong Leafs Fan living in Habs Country.
by JeanValjean on Jan 12, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
But if you stand right up at the board when nobody’s looking you can jam a dart in the bullseye and take your 50 points to the bank.
I think a more apt analogy might be based on a hurricane track. When it’s way out over the Atlantic its point of landing could be anywhere along a 500 mile stretch of shoreline, but as it approaches they narrow it down to much smaller area. At this point I’d say Olden is more than halfway across the Atlantic but far enough out that he could still do some serious damage to the Florida Keys.
Let the Wookie win.
Twitter is a thing!
I like this analogy and if he doesn’t work out we can ship him to Carolina.
by Kuleminsky-ov on Jan 12, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I haven’t watched Sondre Olden play and I certainly haven’t watched his peers play.
“Guy seems young.”
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COUNTERPOINT
He’s a rangy Swede that the Wings wanted to draft so he’s clearly a late-blooming HHOFer. Ipso facto, he’s #1 on the list.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
He’s Norwegian though.
Do Detroit’s mystical Euro drafting powers cover all of Scandinavia? They’ve yet to conquer the Danes.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
plays in SEL
just go with the narrative, would you? He’s Zetterberg 2.0.
Unabashed fan of the surprise 2012 Stanley Cup champs
Pretty sure I saw on Twitter last week that the Erie Otters GM was quoted as saying he wouldn’t trade Olden unless there was a really impressive offer on the table. I would’ve loved to see him get off that team like 2-2-4 McKegg, but for a team that’s so far in the basement it should be willing to sell office furniture for a marginal improvement, it’s nice to see that Olden has enough talent that just getting his overage year is considered part of the solution.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
The rules regarding Import players probably made it harder to get a deal done.
Like I know that the Oilers prospect Marincin got dealt out in the WHL from Prince George to (I can’t remember who picked him up) and they had to trade back another import player or they’d have had too many.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
From my limited experience seeing Olden in action: He has a great 2 way game, and is used generously on the PK for his defensive ability, as well as the PK for his wicked point shot. If he were to bulk up some, man he’d be a force.
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