Why No Reimer?

The Leafs beat writers are reporting that Jonas Gustavsson will again get the start tonight. This confuses me for several reasons. First is Coach Ron Wilson's own statement that he was going to run a "Win and You're In" policy with his goaltenders, and well Gustavsson lost on Saturday night. Secondly, Reimer has only played once since 2012 began, a 3-2 loss to Ottawa in which he was used as a couch on one goal and interfered with do to a stupid play by his defense on another. Hardly a loss you'd attribute to his "poor play".

Thirdly, as we all know James Reimer's ES Save Percentage has been consistent throughout his career and currently sits at a .931 for this season. However poor PK play (.771) has his overall numbers down to a MSM "friendly" .899 so they can point to him being below Gustavsson in the "stats" department. Earlier in the season I would have labeled this terrible PK save percentage to be a real problem because the Leafs PK was a) all too frequent (3.9 PK's per game average), and b) apocalypticly bad (72% kill rate).

And then 2012 came about and the Maple Leafs became a team full of Lady Byngs. Their PK per game rate has fallen by over 50% to just 1.8 shorthanded situations a game, and has operated to perfection killing off all 16 PKs they've faced. Is this due to a new system? Possibly as this comes after noted heated PK related arguments at Leafs practice between players and coaches. Is it just due to luck and a regression to the mean? Yeah, a fair bit I would say. Frankly I don't care why, I just care that it is the way it currently is.

The Leafs PK woes are, at the moment, a thing of the past. Their games are currently being won or lost playing 5on5 and as a fan who wants the Maple Leafs to win games, I want the best 5on5 goalie in the system to play the majority of the teams. I want James Reimer in net.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong and a Gustavsson hater in the comments.

All data from here and NHL.com

BowerPower took it 1 step farther in the comments. It was so good, I put it here.

Reimer: .931 ES SVP, .771 PK SVP
Gustavsson: .911 ES SVP, .857 PK SVP

Toronto: ES SA/60: 29.7, PK SA/60: 49.0.

Hypothetically, let’s say the Leafs take just one penalty. They’ll play 58 minutes ES, 2 on the PK. At the SA/60 rates, you would expect Reimer to give up 2.355 goals, and Gustavsson to give up 2.789. This number evens out around 52.5 minutes of even strength play, or 7.5 PIM. The Leafs need to take 4 or more penalties before playing Gustavsson over Reimer based on past PK SVP performance even starts to make sense, and that’s assuming that Reimer’s PK SVP play stays constant (it probably won’t).

If the split looks like 48 ES, 6 PK, 6 PP, you’re still better off playing Reimer (2.76) than Gus (2.82).

Reimer’s the better option.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker