Why No Reimer?
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 1:13 PM EST
in Obscure Stats Watch
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PrintThe Leafs beat writers are reporting that Jonas Gustavsson will again get the start tonight. This confuses me for several reasons. First is Coach Ron Wilson's own statement that he was going to run a "Win and You're In" policy with his goaltenders, and well Gustavsson lost on Saturday night. Secondly, Reimer has only played once since 2012 began, a 3-2 loss to Ottawa in which he was used as a couch on one goal and interfered with do to a stupid play by his defense on another. Hardly a loss you'd attribute to his "poor play".
Thirdly, as we all know James Reimer's ES Save Percentage has been consistent throughout his career and currently sits at a .931 for this season. However poor PK play (.771) has his overall numbers down to a MSM "friendly" .899 so they can point to him being below Gustavsson in the "stats" department. Earlier in the season I would have labeled this terrible PK save percentage to be a real problem because the Leafs PK was a) all too frequent (3.9 PK's per game average), and b) apocalypticly bad (72% kill rate).
And then 2012 came about and the Maple Leafs became a team full of Lady Byngs. Their PK per game rate has fallen by over 50% to just 1.8 shorthanded situations a game, and has operated to perfection killing off all 16 PKs they've faced. Is this due to a new system? Possibly as this comes after noted heated PK related arguments at Leafs practice between players and coaches. Is it just due to luck and a regression to the mean? Yeah, a fair bit I would say. Frankly I don't care why, I just care that it is the way it currently is.
The Leafs PK woes are, at the moment, a thing of the past. Their games are currently being won or lost playing 5on5 and as a fan who wants the Maple Leafs to win games, I want the best 5on5 goalie in the system to play the majority of the teams. I want James Reimer in net.
Feel free to tell me I'm wrong and a Gustavsson hater in the comments.
All data from here and NHL.com
BowerPower took it 1 step farther in the comments. It was so good, I put it here.
Reimer: .931 ES SVP, .771 PK SVP
Gustavsson: .911 ES SVP, .857 PK SVPToronto: ES SA/60: 29.7, PK SA/60: 49.0.
Hypothetically, let’s say the Leafs take just one penalty. They’ll play 58 minutes ES, 2 on the PK. At the SA/60 rates, you would expect Reimer to give up 2.355 goals, and Gustavsson to give up 2.789. This number evens out around 52.5 minutes of even strength play, or 7.5 PIM. The Leafs need to take 4 or more penalties before playing Gustavsson over Reimer based on past PK SVP performance even starts to make sense, and that’s assuming that Reimer’s PK SVP play stays constant (it probably won’t).
If the split looks like 48 ES, 6 PK, 6 PP, you’re still better off playing Reimer (2.76) than Gus (2.82).
Reimer’s the better option.
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It’s Reimer, Reimer, gotta be starting Reimer
Music these days. So overplayed and quickly forgotten.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
That was actually stuck in my head all day yesterday for, like, no reason. I think it’s the hockey gods channeling themselves through me.
Also, while I want Reimer to start stringing some games together, I’m a bit perplexed by everyone insisting we only consider his ES SV%, as if his poor PK SV% is an aberration. Isn’t the sample size large enough at this point for us to say that maybe, just maybe, Reimer’s not good on the PK, or at the very least he’s quite shaky with a man down?
Still, I guess the Leafs have been on the PK much less lately, so ES SV% does make some sense…
No one ever suspects the butterfly...
Except he had a .855 PK sv% last season. It’s pretty much unpredictable and totally luck driven.
Examples:
Elliott: 2011 – .858, 2012 – .901
Schneider: 2011 – .911, 2012 – .958
Price: 2011 – .866, 2012 – .901
Those are year to year jumps of .04 or more and just a small example of the fluctuations.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Isn’t the sample size large enough at this point
Reimer faced 96 PK shots so far this year and 159 last year. Don’t be fooled by the fact that a year and a half seems like a long time; think of 255 shots as “about eight games’ worth of shots”, not as a year and a half, and you’ll see why 255 shots at .824 PKSv% is more likely than not an anomaly.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I’m under the impression that the Reimer still has a nagging injury or isn’t 100%. It really doesn’t make sense to continue to play Gus when the stats clearly depict that Reimer is superior at even strength. Either that or the Leafs are showcasing Gus or at the very least waiting to see if he is worth being resigned. Maybe I’m wrong and the Leafs just feel Gus is the #1 but I don’t see how as we have lost 4 of our last 5 and Gus was between the posts for 3 of those losses.
When losing an argument on the internet, be sure to attack someones grammar. That is the only way to save face.
I didn’t think most of those losses were Gus’ fault. Usually he lets in one bad goal, but we haven’t been giving him much goal support.
No one ever suspects the butterfly...
I don’t even care if Reimer’s actually hurt or not, I’m going to tell myself that he is anyway because my brain would explode if there were any other explanation.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jan 23, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Its Gus' turn.
we had a stretch right before XMAS where Reimer started 5-6 games and he played like crap our PK went from being bad to being even worse. Gustavsson plays and our PK goes 16 for 16? that’s no coincidence, Gustavsson is playing the better hockey of the two. Unless you literally have a bunch of ECHL players in front of you on the PK there’s absolutely no reason for a sub 700 save percentage on the PK that’s inexcusable. We went with reimer for 5-6 games where he was horrible, so why doesn’t Gustavsson, whose played pretty decent, get the same treatment? Reimer will be the better goalie down the road but ride the goalie thats gives you competent goaltending for the time being.
by Only_Crime on Jan 23, 2012 1:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
We went with reimer for 5-6 games where he was horrible
no, the Leafs went 5-6 games where Reimer was well above starting average at ES and the whole team was absolute shite on the PK
Gus was pretty bad on the PK then too, he just started fewer games
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
This has become one of those brain-dead arguments that no one can win. Fact: We allow fewer goals on the PK when Gus is in net. The Reimer lovers then claim it’s because the PK has improve. The Gus lovers say HE may have had something to do with it.
How can you sort that out? Over a small sample size, you can’t.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
We allow fewer goals on the PK when Gus is in net.
Over the course of the entire season. Weird.
Even when the PK was “shitty.” Really weird.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yeeeup
What I’d be interested in is an explanation for why the better goalie at evens does worse on the PK. I have no clue how it happens but Goose has snagged the reins and just like last year with Reimer the team might as well run with it.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I still think that by playoff time, Reimer will be the man. But I suspect he’s got a few challenges. On the PK, I donno. Part of it is just that he hasn’t been as solid, and a random distribution of those goals threw more of them in during the PK. Practically, I’m not convinced that he’s aggressive enough to force his way around traffic to get a look when he’s screened, or to take a beating when they’re in his crease, or demand rebounds. There’s a mental thing there, and it’s tough for young goalies, especially quite diffident ones, to step up and seize it. After a fairly bad concussion, who knows?
But my longer-term money, and hopes, are more on Reimer. I suspect it’s just randomness, perhaps with a bit of being gun-shy post the Gionta thing.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
It’ll be interesting to see which games Wilson gives Reimer because he has to start giving him some. He can’t go Paul Maurice and start Goose 30 in a row.
The mental part is the tough part. People focus on stats because it’s the part we can measure. Is being shy of contact an issue? Sure. Reimer wouldn’t be human if it wasn’t. But how can we know how much it is?
There IS something wrong with Reimer on the PK just like there was last year with Gustavsson. It’s not all the natural variation but it’s hard to know how much it is.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I’ve been through a long series of concussions. Didn’t even know what they were in the early days. By now, I know. And I still find the effects are hard as hell to pick out. Two concussions ago, it affected my writing. I could write a perfectly good point, then another one… but not string them together. It was all disjointed. This last concussion, I got a real aversion to bright light after. Something that lasted well over 2 years.
But if you’d even asked me while I was IN them whether I felt any effects, I’d have said no.
Not saying that’s what it is with Reimer, just saying every day he gains in his recovery is a good thing.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Tweet RW why Reimer isn’t playing if you so desire and point out to RW how much better Remier is than Gus, I’m sure if he got back to you it’d be interesting.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
I wonder if it’s possible that the Leafs are looking for a goaltender in the trade market, but don’t want to weaken their negotiating position by letting it out now that Reimer is still hurt, and that’s why we’re getting this bizarre dance. I have zero evidence to back this idea up, I’m just throwing it out there as a potentially logical explanation for some otherwise baffling decisions.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
One issue with the Leafs is they don’t release shit. Gotta give Burke credit, he keeps a tight lid on things. Though it is infuriating when no explanation is given. For example, what happens tonight if Gus wins? We go with him tomorrow to? Just doesn’t make sense.
When losing an argument on the internet, be sure to attack someones grammar. That is the only way to save face.
If the b2b from last weekend (BUF/NYR) is any indication, Gus starts tomorrow, regardless.
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 23, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Why hasn’t anyone considered the fact the PK is 16 for 16 BECAUSE Gus is in net? that stretch started right as Gustavsson started playing again. Why is everyone ignoring this and attributing this to the team magically becoming leaps and bounds better statistically?
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
by Only_Crime on Jan 23, 2012 1:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Why do you assume Gus has magically become leaps and bounds better statistically?
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jan 23, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not only is Gus a PK god, but the team takes 50% less penalties because of his impressive leadership skills.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
I’m not saying Leafs PK hasn’t improved or started taking less penalties but 16 for 16 is a HUGE improvement over where our PK numbers were at just before christmas. Gustavsson definatly deserves kudos for that. At the end of the day the leafs have better PK numbers with Gustavsson in net rather than reimer. They also allow fewer goals per game when Gustavsson is in net. Reimer has the tools to be the better goalie but Gustavsson is playing better and I dont see any problem with Wilson going with the goalie that makes the team better right now.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
We’re talking about the Gustavsson who had a .784 PKSv% last year, right?
It’s possible that he acquired a new talent recently, perhaps by extracting it from Reimer’s body. It’s more likely that PK Sv% just varies all over the place on small samples.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ya no players improve from one year to the next…. great point!
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
This one time, I flipped a coin 20 times and got 7 heads. I was all pissed because that coin sucked, and I buried it in the bottom of my piggy bank. Then I took it out the next year and gave it another try and it came up heads 14 times. Its hard work in the off-season really paid off!
Seriously, look at these numbers:
2010-11: Gustavsson 69/88, .784
2010-11: Reimer 136/159, .855
2011-12: Gustavsson 90/105, .857
2011-12: Reimer 74/96, .771
Do you really think the most likely explanation is that Gustavsson used to be the worst PK goalie ever but is now fine, and Reimer used to be fine but is now the worst ever?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 23, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
It should also be noted that those two years of data are only like 17 total games worth of even-strength shots.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
This is fancied up dogs bollocks. Let’s try this.
I hope that our goalie keeps the other team to 3 goals or less. If he has a few 2 goal games or 1 goal games or shutouts, then his average will creep down toward 2. Plus, if the other guys get no more than 3 goals, we have a chance most times.
Reimer has failed at this 5 times, and Gus 4 times. Which is odd, because Gus is the one who gets taunted for this.
How about stellar games where the goalie allows 0 or just the 1 goal, giving you a tremendous chance to win?
Reimer only has 2. TWO. Gus has 5.
Look. I think Reimer is ultimately the better goalie. I WANT him to be the #1. But he’s not playing very well. Last game? Sure. Two goals weren’t his fault. But he then fanned, in the clutch, game on the line.
I think he’s still not recovered. but apparently people have found the goddamn magic stat that tells us Reimer’s playing better. Whatever.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Dude, I agree with a lot of this.
But your use of the word “clutch” will default your entire point, to a large segment of the persons you are debating with
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Some how I think pretty much all of them understand the difference between being up 4-0 in the 3rd and being tied. If not, I withdraw from the argument, on the basis that they’re unarmed.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
If you wrote a book, about anything, I would buy it.
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Cam Charron had a post about how Goose has had more quality starts this year. Goose has been better this year. I agree with that. But I think Eric T. highlights how his main advantage is subject to big fluctuations from year to year and that holds true for the entire NHL.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Because there isn’t a good explanation for why a goalie who was inferior at even strength would be so much better on the PK. That and a general unwillingness to confuse correlation with causation.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
but isn’t everything a sample of… I mean if you take Gus’s recent play, say since he took on the majority of starts… what are his numbers, ie sv% and gaa? I don’t think they suck as many as the fans think are and I’m sure they look as good as Reimer’s.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Right but cherrypicking samples of when do the numbers become good is the definition of small sample size and a bad data set.
There are lots of examples of players who play well for a stretch because of other factors beyond their control – Jason Blake scored 40 goals.
I’m not a Gus-basher and it is possible that maybe he has magically turned his play around but he’ll need to continue to produce results like this before we can say this is now his true talent level.
If that’s the case then why wasn’t it good when Gustavsson carreid the starting load when Reimer was out hurt?
Why are you ignoring two and a half seasons of data on Gustavsson and focusing on 9 games directly after the Leafs put significant effort into fixing their PK problems?
Also, I’d love an explanation for how Gustavsson is the reason that the defence can now properly clear the puck out of the zone and how the forwards aren’t getting caught running around and losing their guy in coverage.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
i think the PK getting better definatly has something to do with Gustavsson. The whole running around getting out of position on the PK theory is really easy to see. Gustavsson can make those saves from the point, Reimer couldn’t. When your goaltender cant save a perimeter shot to save his life (Staals OT winner comes to mind) then your PK is naturally going to start running around when they know they have to stop every single shot from getting on net. With Gus they can concentrate on take there men down low and letting Gus see the point shots and handle them, thus no running around.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
i think the PK getting better definatly has something to do with Gustavsson.
something? sure, but if it were a percentage it would be something like 5%
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Go back and watch the tape of Reimer, he was god awful on the PK, he let in every perimeter shot that was taken on the PK. Gustavsson has quietly made the saves hes had to last couple games. Reimer may just be experiencing bad luck right now and there no question his play will improve but at this moment in time Gustavsson improves this teams PK tenfold
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
you mean tipped shots? shots from the top of the circle that are one timers with no D-coverage on a post to post play?
maybe you should watch a string of PP goals and see how many are like that
it’s not Reimer, it’s the PK as a whole
were there some bad ones? probably, but its not unusual
saying “every perimeter shot” is pretty disingenuous
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the Carolina game before christmas, Staal is at the fucking half wall and somehow reimer cant find that, i pin that one on him. The Winnipeg game where we were scored on every PK, all of them were shots from the point, they may have been deflected but reimer has to make a save on those shots. Gus has done exactly that recently so again in my opinion it seems like a no brainer to play the goalie that makes our team better that night.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
Gustavsson was pretty bad against montreal, so how is he a no brainer?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
GustavssonThe Leafs were pretty bad against montreal
fixed
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
I could do the same thing with all of Only_Crime’s examples
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Who do you blame for the Leafs game against Montreal?
Do you blame Gustavvson or the Team that played in front of them.
Personally my feelings after that game was that I wanted Burke to ship them all out. That was like the worst game in like a week…
I blame more the team than Gustavvsson.
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
You mean the one where Gardiner left his man alone in front of the net untouched? Ya I remember that goal. Reimer was so fuckin shit on it. How couldn’t he stop a cross crease pass like that. Fuckin garbage goalie
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Somehow I doubt you would share that feeling had it been Gus in net.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
i some how doubt you have any fucking clue what feelings he would share if gus had been in net
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously?
I think most people on this site know me to be pretty fair with who I criticize. Yes I am harder on some people more than others but when it comes to the goalies I critique them equally.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
This conversation needs moar VRN to level the playing field.
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 23, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
What would VRN add to the conversation except logic, reasoning, and a basic understanding of stats, and…
Oh I see what you mean.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Excuse me sir…
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Seriously, this joke needs to fuckin stop.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
maybe you should brush up against it lightly and it will drop like a stone!
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Brilliant
I would rec again if I hadn’t tripped and fallen into that lifeboat that was haphazzardly left lying on the floor.
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 23, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
don’t encourage them
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
just showing them how to do it properly
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Only for you skinny
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
My bad. It’s just the feeling around here that Remier is god’s gift and Gus ain’t worth shit so I just lumped you in with all the Gus haters. The argument of who is better is a rather silly one really. The important thing is playing the players that will best get us the win… so far, as inferior as Gus is to Remier, he’s getting us the wins and Reimer isn’t. When Remier get’s back to where he ought to be playing, I’ll be the first one to polish his statue.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
the thing is, Gus isn’t getting the Leafs wins from where us “haters” sit, the Leafs as a whole were
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
being afellow mennonite I want it to be Riemer but right now I feel Gus has the edge.Now if you’ll excuse me I need to go out and fetch more fire wood for my wood fired computer
by hardfoot57 on Jan 23, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would give you a rec, but I know you don’t celebrate those kind of things.
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 23, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
BINGO
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
None of the Leafs wins are a result of Gus’ play but all the loses are his fault.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jan 23, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
None of the Leafs wins are a result of Gus Reimers’ play but all the loses are his fault.
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
What wins?
In the 13 games he’s played since he’s been back he’s 3-5-3, with losses suffered against teams we should be beating like WPG, Ott, NJD, Carolina, sitting around an .890, and has a GAA over 3.
In the last 13 games Gus is 7-6, with 4 of those losses coming against playoff teams, including 3 of which were against 3 of the top 5 teams in the league (Bos, NYR, Van) and the other against FLA. He’s sporting .915 and a GAA around 2.6
I think Reimer hasn’t been the same since coming back from his concussion and it shows. There’s no reason to hate on Gustavsson right now as he’s been the better goalie. I’m not saying he’s a better goalie period, or that Reimer won’t re-emerge as the better goalie, but right now, It’s fair to say Gustavsson is playing better so he deserves games in net.
Reimer got all the credit last year for pulling the leafs to the brink of the playoffs, and deservedly so. Gustavsson has been largely derided for his play until only very recently, where he’s kept the Leafs in a position to fight for a playoff spot, yet he’s still getting hated on. That I don’t get.
by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Jan 23, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
wow, typing fail*
In the 12 games* he’s played he’s 3-6-3
I picked Gus’s last 13, but could have easily gone last 15 which would include the back to back 7-1 wins he got, but wanted the same number of games as Reimer, and i still ended up getting it wrong lol
by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Jan 23, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yup.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Goose deserves a lot more credit than he gets. The issue is that when you look at what’s likely repeatable then Reimer’s short career looks moreso than Gooses’.
Of course, that’s just going by the odds.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Yup…but do you change the lineup that’s getting you wins?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Blinded by hate?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
hatred of people being blind more like it
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
fuck the Arkells, anyone who aspires to be the Trews and fails are clearly horrible people as well as horrible musicians
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I am also a fan of the Arkells. Saw them last summer at Bayfest with the Tragically Hip and Joel Plaskett.
Riding the Leafs bandwagon since 1991.
Check out my art!
by CanadianMaple09 on Jan 23, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
What’s so wrong about the Arkells? I know there’s some hate here for Hey Rosetta! too, which I am equally confused by.
Riding the Leafs bandwagon since 1991.
Check out my art!
by CanadianMaple09 on Jan 23, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I just can’t stand their music. I don’t get the love… which is kinda weird cause that style is usually what I’d go for
To me it’s real music, you know that it was all written and performed by the musicians themselves, so regardless of whether I like it or not, I still respect it and certainly don’t hate it. That being said, I do like their music and it does fit in with the style of music I generally like.
Riding the Leafs bandwagon since 1991.
Check out my art!
by CanadianMaple09 on Jan 23, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Ya I used to hate people that didn’t see things the way I did too but hey, I out grew it eventually. Its a shame if you can’t see their point to your strong opinions on a given subject, no matter how right or wrong you may be.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
So are you considering the game in Buffalo where Gus let in a weak Gaustad shot that hit Gunnarsons foot? or right before that when a shot behind the net hit the dmans foot and squeaked slowly under his pad? or the Minny game where that guy scored with 2 minutes left because Gus didn’t squeeze the post properly? Because those don’t sound like Gus doing “exactly that”
Improvement is improvement – I would take a 1% improvement if it meant seeing my team play in the spring.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
But there’s no reason to think that Reimer’s inability, this season, to stop perimeter shots on the PK is a flaw in his game. There are a lot of other explanations, most of which would suggest that his numbers will improve. So unless you think there is a specific problem with Reimer stopping point shots when the Leafs are down a man, this reasoning doesn’t really work.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
I agree with that whole comment but my point is we all seem to agree PK is better at the moment with Gustavsson so why are we up in arms because hes playing right now? it seems simple to me.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
Because while the PK is better, it might not be because of Jonas, and based on the season’s play, we’re worse off at even strength with him in net. Which isn’t to say we should be hitting him with a bus to keep him out of the crease, but more that Reimer seems to be unfairly (or unreasonably, to the outside observer) kept from the net.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
but we did the exact same thing when reimer came back, we played him and he stunk for quite a few games but we kept going back to him. We didnt cry foul when Reimer lost 5 of 6 and played bad but were on Gus because hes played well and lost 3 of 4? id argue were treating Gus unfairly.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
Wilson didn’t come out and say he was going with a Win And You’re In mentality when Reimer came back now did he?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
you remember how bad gus was and how good reimer were last season right?
you dont think one earned the benefit of the doubt and the other earned the doubt?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
your right which is why we stuck with reimer through 5-6 bad games before christmas, Gus played well in his absence and then played well after reimer returned. Theres no conspiracy here boys.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
Gustavsson was FUCKING TERRIBLE in ALL of his games up to that point, he cost the Leafs many many points when Reimer was out hurt
the Leafs owed Gus nothing at that point and Reimer got hung out to dry
stop blaming those loses soly on James when the Leafs were brutal all around
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
So the question remains, is he’s still “FUCKING TERRIBLE”?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
No he’s moved all the way up to BARELY ADEQUATE.
Plan the Parade!!!1
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
yes, that sums it up nicely
as does “good enough to win most nights if the Leafs score 3+ goals”
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
I can live with that!
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Yea man, you’re putting it in behind her knees
Emo Girl Wing of Leafs Nation
by Fergus30 on Jan 23, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Because Gustavsson is statisically the better goalie in a game situation that occurs roughly 6 out of 60 minutes.
If you were playing poker, would you bet on a hand that wins 10% of the time? That’s basically what you’re saying by picking Gus over Reimer.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
its not that hes statistically better its that hes 230% better in that situation and has in all honestly looked better than reimer has. Reimer started 5-6 games where he played badly and lost. Where doing the same with gustavsson this seems perfectly fine to me.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
and lost.
You’ve got to get off the wins and losses because the rest of the team has to score to get a W.
Last 3 games of 2011, Reimer gets 3 Ls because the Leafs can’t score only 3,3, and 2 goals. First 3 games of 2012, Gus gets 3 wins because the Leafs score 7, 4, 4 and win in spite of Gus giving up 3 goals in two of those games.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
that exact argument can be made of gustavsson last 3 losses as well though. were only doing what we did with reimer this isnt some big elaborate plot to terrorize leaf fans.
Torch_Industrys on twitter, gimme a follow.
I’d enjoy it if you could find anyone defending Reimer based on his win/loss record.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
I think you’re right. Gus is playing well, you go with him… Remier since returning from injury hasn’t been as good. What’s so hard to understand about that? If Reimer played like he can or has in the past that warranted this praise than fine, I’ll be on your side of the fence with this… but he hasn’t been.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Remier since returning from injury hasn’t been as good.
ES sv% remains steady ~.930, continues getting bad luck/coverage on the PK.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
ding ding ding
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
We all know his ES sv% is good… no one is refuting that… but ES sv% unfortunately isn’t the only way the team plays… there are times when they will be down a man and so far, Remier hasn’t proved that he can stop the puck like Gus can on the PK. Improved PK you say? Why is that? Could it be due to good coaching, players better adapting to a system finally or have found something that works… but you don’t think it has nothing to do with the goalies… interesting view point.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
We all know his ES sv% is good… no one is refuting that… but ES sv% unfortunately isn’t the only way the team plays…
It may not be the only way the team plays, but it’s the only number that isn’t warped by luck. So if the team is making decisions based on PK sv%, we are in trouble.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
but it’s theonly number that isn’tnumber that is least warped by luck
Any mid-season goalie evaluation is going to have to overcome a heavy dose of variance. But you make it 10x worse if you focus on the PK.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 23, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, fair enough. The point stands, though.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Yeah, I meant it more to emphasize what you said than to argue with it. Goalie performance is full of variance, which makes it critical to minimize small sample size effects.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I have a problem with the luck argument… Sure there is some luck but good teams don’t hope on luck but rather make their own or have the talent/skill/experience to overcome unfavorable luck – if luck even exists or play such a big role in things.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Right, so we shouldn’t hope that Gus’s lucky PK numbers predict future all-around success.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Agreed. ES Sv% is the best measure we have for goalie talent, the best predictor of future goalie performance.
The causal sequence is not: People love Reimer, so they find the stat that makes Reimer look good and end up focusing on ES Sv%.
It is: ESSv% was shown to be the best stat, so people focus on it and love Reimer.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Agreed. ES Sv% is the best measure we have for goalie talent, the best predictor of future goalie performance.
Agree wholeheartedly, but I’d be suprised if Ron Wilson knew this.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Agree wholeheartedly, but I’d be suprised if Ron Wilson knew this.
I should hope so. He and Brian Burke get paid a lot of money to know something like this, and we do it as a hobby.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
I doubt it.
If it’s so bloody obvious, than why would a coach ignore it?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, Ron Wilson doesn’t know what his goalie’s sv% is. Yes
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
YOU’RE JUST BIASED FOR REIMER
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’ve noticed a certain PATTERN on this THREAD that I find a little bit of a CAUSE FOR CONCERN. Is it possible that you guys caught SOME SORT OF VIRUS?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Good teams might not “hope on” luck, but it still effects them whether they think it does or not. A good GM constructs a lineup that tips the odds in his favour, but even if you’ve got pocket aces the other guy can still hit a flush on the river.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jan 23, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Right. The luck thing is only a part of the equation.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Yes, but I’m saying it can be a very big part, especially over small sample sizes like half a season’s worth of penalty kills.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jan 23, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
The 'Luck' Problem
Unfortunately, ‘luck’ is a shitty word that is used to describe essentially “all that we cannot measure”.
Good teams don’t hope for luck, they get it. It’s a part of sports.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
You always hear coaches that “he needs to battle” and “find a way to see through the screens, etc”… so if that isn’t a flaw I don’t know what is. Its not something that can’t be fixed or improved but right now, maybe just maybe, Reimer is still having issues with traffic and might be why he is not starting just yet?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
That could be, but then why is this problem only showing up on the PK?
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Just a guess here but maybe because with the other team having one extra guy means they can be more offensive minded? More bodies to the danger zones for extended period of time… advantage to opposing team?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
how about ES odd man rushes? how about when the tired leafs team is hemmed in their own zone after an icing? etc etc etc
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
how about ES odd man rushes? how about when the tired leafs team is hemmed in their own zone after an icing? etc etc etc
not my point.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
then what is your point?? that when a team has the advantage offensively down a man that it is easier to stop shots than when they have the offensive advantage at ES?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
No, my point is that maybe Remier has a harder time on the PK due to the fact we are down one man and he might be over thinking it or something – like the extra open guy or whatever… maybe he believes he’s not up to the task or his teammates aren’t or what ever the case my be, Remier stuggles on the PK and Gus not as much.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Maybe the team’s stupid fronting policy made it so he a) couldn’t see point shots, b) led to a lot of unstoppable tips, and c) led to a lot of guys getting lost behind our fronting defense.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
So you’re more willing to accept that Reimer is mentally deficient on the PK – despite having posted an .855 last season, and despite having worked on the PK at every level of minor hockey before the NHL – than to suggest that there’s luck and poor sample size in PK SVP?
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
No I am not saying that but that so far, Gus has been more successful than Reimer at it, that’s it. That’s all I am saying: Gus has been better than Remier shorthanded. Whether it’s warranted through improvement in his play, which I hope is the case – since who wouldn’t want a good goalie or two on their team, or the team finally getting with it and playing better as a whole. A win is a win is a win as far as I’m concerned, who gets up one or how we do it isn’t as important to me than the win at this stage.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Lets put it this way:
Leafs have been taking 1-2 penalties lately and drawing 3-4. Lets take the high end here.
Would you rather a goalie who is better at the 4min or the 48 min?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Would you rather a goalie who is better at the 4min or the 48 min?
Well assuming that the 48mins are just the same as the rest of the 4 – don’t know where the other 8mins are but hey… you said it but what if in those 4mins are the minutes games are won or lost? How many times do you rely on those crunch minutes to win or lose a game?
To me PP and PK are just that, an opportunity to gain an advantage and if you have a guy in net that is great every other time but then, you’ll win your share of games but I think you’ll also lose many you should of won or at the very least, made it an easier time of winning/defending.
The best thing would be to have a guy that sparkles in both situations but right now we have neither… going with the lesser of two evils, our PK was making us lose games, Gus was better than Remier in that situation, at ES we didn’t need the help as much as we did on the PK so having a player that is better at aiding us solve what was our biggest Achilles heel makes sense right now.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
don’t know where the other 8mins are but hey
assuming the leafs draw 4 penalties
Also since the leafs are taking less penalties, there is less emphasis on the PK. So I dont get why its so pressing to look at the SH SV%
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Gus has been better than Reimer on the PK . This is true.
Reimer has been better than Gus at evens. This is also true.
Games are played >90% at evens.
I’ll take the guy who’s better for the majority of the game over the one who’s better at only a small portion of it.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
I just said that!
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Your mom likes mine better
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Dude, this is pathetic. It depends entirely on HOW MUCH WORSE you are at any particular aspect. If Reimer allows shit-tonnes of goals on the PK, he will, actually, factually and statistically soundly, let in more goddamn goals during the game.
Look. Reimer has only TWO games this season where he’s let in 0 or 1 goal. After the opening night shutout, he has had ZERO games where he has stopped even 20 shots and kept the other team to 0 or 1 goals. That is, no “stellar” games.
Plus, we’ve all SEEN him let in soft ones, just the way Gus does. Like last game? Where two goals weren’t his fault. But he then fanned, in the clutch, game on the line.
IMHO, people are absolutely abusing this PK save % stat at this point.
Something is not right with Reimer. Like I said. I think Reimer is ultimately the better goalie. I WANT him to be the #1. But he’s not playing very well.
And I think – for the 100th time – he’s still not recovered. But whatever.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Scroll back up to BowerPower’s comment, or all the way to the top where I added it after the jump. (Hit refresh.)
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Skinny. I think Reimer should start tonight, if he’s not injured, ok? Also, I prefer Reimer, both personally, and in terms of style. (I just got back from 8 years working inWinnipeg, best bud is Menno etc.)
That said, people are putting way too much weight on a stat – EV save % vs PK save % – to try and buttress what is, essentially, a personal argument.
As follows. Since opening night, Reimer’s EV Save % has been better than Gus’. Because he started with a shutout – whereas Gus’ first game was a blowout. Your logic says that therefore, as long as Reimer is ahead on that one stat, EV Save %, he should start.
And yet, since that game, Gus has had a better GAA, better overall Save %, more wins, and a much better record in terms of producing really stellar games – i.e. only allowing 0 or 1 goals.
The straight-up fact on the season regarding Reimer is that he just isn’t playing as well as last year. That some of those goals have come on the PK is interesting, but is just as likely to be luck, as it is that his overall bad PK performance is luck.
Hell, even Reimer says he’s not playing nearly as well. Why are we arguing this?
Maybe we think he’s better, and up to scratch, and think he deserves a turn. Ok. Sure. I agree. Let’s go. But to argue that the PK Save % stat somehow proves that he’s better, this year or even right now, than Gus, just isn’t the case.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
But to argue that the PK Save % stat somehow proves that he’s better, this year or even right now, than Gus, just isn’t the case.
Sure it does.
I’ll quote some Sex Panther to you. 95% of the time, Reimer is better than Gustavsson every time. The other 5% of the time, who gives a fuck, it’s all luck.
(Reimed for Jared.)
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Right, you say it’s luck. And you think that’s advanced statsy or something to say. But… it ain’t.
- If Reimer was letting in more bad goals, they could – just through being distributed randomly – be landing more often during the PK. thus, making it look like it was the PK.
- Or, another hypothesis, he could be having particular difficulty with certain things, maybe as a result of a weakness in his skillset, or as a result of the concussion, and be seeing more of those situations on PK’s. e.g. Screens, rebounds, etc.
In short, what you have is an advanced stat – PK save % – that ends up turning on “luck.” Shorter, the stat explains nothing, and at present it’s just a label that says, “This label covers up our ignorance.”
He’s not been playing well. Nor, in the last couple of games, has Gus. I just find the whole stats thing has gotten absurd in recent weeks around this issue.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
If Reimer was letting in more bad goals, they could – just through being distributed randomly – be landing more often during the PK. thus, making it look like it was the PK.
You’re right. If Reimer maintained a poor save percentage on the PK, it would be cause for alarm. However, he had a very respectable .855 last year, and his ES SVP is so high (14th among all Gs with > 10 GP) that it’s very unlikely that this is the case.
- Or, another hypothesis, he could be having particular difficulty with certain things, maybe as a result of a weakness in his skillset, or as a result of the concussion, and be seeing more of those situations on PK’s. e.g. Screens, rebounds, etc.
If you’re worried about the PK as a skillset, you don’t need to – Ryan Miller, for example, has been very inconsistent in his year-to-year PK SVP. If it’s a skillset, it’s one that very established goaltenders seem to “forget” and then “remember” from year to year.
In short, your alternative hypotheses are all much more convoluted than “luck.” We could also talk about PK systems, but because of the disparity between Jonas and Reimer, it’s probably not the case at this point. Occam’s razor that bitch.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
For starters, let’s not tart up an argument built around “luck” by claiming it has anything to do with Occam’s Razor.
You talk about Reimer’s last season and say it means something is “very unlikely to be the case.” This is the sort of thing that makes it clear how much we’re out into Bizarro land here. He’s a 2nd year player, Bower. He has a total of 55 games under his belt. But somehow, magically, those 37 from last year get tarted up into “what Reimer really is,” or – as other people put it – his “career” – and thus, he’s better than Gus. Sorry, but 37 games then and 18 games now gives me very little to stand on when trying to decide whether to be alarmed or not.
Second, I’m not talking about the PK as a “skill-set.” I’m talking about certain types of situations which are likelier to arise on the PK than, such as screened shots, rebounds, etc. My suggestion was that it was entirely possible that Reimer’s skills at some of these activities were poorer, or had ben weakened post-concussion, and that this could just as easily explain things as “luck.”
So, again, there’s no traction for Occam’s Razor in Philosophy grad school if it’s based on a single argument so simple – but empty – as “luck.”
Otherwise, the obvious counter is, it’s not luck…. it’s God’s Will. After all, it explains so much. ;-)
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Reimer as a whole is a completely unknown quantity, and a “small sample size” warning needs to be thrown up over his whole career, sure. He’s still at 1650 shots of the 3000 we’d like to get to. But I’m not sure why we’d expect his PK SVP to plummet from year to year when his ES SVP has dropped just .002. It’s not like Steve Mason, where he went from .925 ES to .911.
And my problem with the idea that certain problematic situations arise more frequently on the PK, is that it would A) be the case league wide, and B) be the case with Gustavsson. And yet it isn’t – everyone’s PK SVP fluctuates year after year.
My point is this: Reimer and his fluctuating PK SVP at this point don’t look like anything outside of what normally happens to NHL goaltenders. If that’s the case, why not just play through it?
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
On your first point, the precise problem is that we ARE dealing with a tiny sample size. If a goalie is playing more poorly, and you have almost no data to work with, it’s completely likely that there will be a measure which suddenly looks as though it’s really gone south.
Here. I just went looking to see if there were any others. Turns out that Reimer’s Home GAA is 2.35, whereas his Road GAA is… 4.01. A .920 Home vs 868 Away Save %. So maybe I do up a narrative (since this is how everyone talks) that’s all about Reimer and home and away, right?
Which is what I (actually) think about the PK/EV thingie this year. People can say it’s just luck, and will balance itself… but it really is just as simple to say that he isn’t playing as well this year, and luck has seen more of those goals fall during the PK.
But all of us – me included – want to believe his downturn is just luck, see? And not a loss of skill or confidence. But again, I (actually) do think his confidence is hurt, he’s pressing, and…. he’s a wee bit off after the concussion.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I just went looking to see if there were any others. Turns out that Reimer’s Home GAA is 2.35, whereas his Road GAA is… 4.01. A .920 Home vs 868 Away Save %. So maybe I do up a narrative (since this is how everyone talks) that’s all about Reimer and home and away, right?
If you can convince me that home and road splits are an enlightening way to examine goaltenders in the league, and/or that one of home/away splits are more or less indicative of goaltender ability, I will absolutely read that piece.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
What’s hilarous is that you actually uncovered a relevant piece of information for your argument and completely dismissed it.
Ignorance is bliss, eh?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Guys to both of you, my point is that NEITHER fact is very powerful, given that there’s so little data. People are actually arguing as if 37 games last year set the bar for what Reimer “is,” whereas 18 this year shows what he “is not.” And in between, the kid – from buttfuck Manitoba – had to suddenly deal with a huge weight on his shoulders, plus, a month in, a pretty bad concussion (and not his first.)
All in all, I hope he’s a future .925 goalie overall, but I don’t know.
As for home and away, sure there’s a reasonable narrative. Some guys get traded because they can’t play at home. Some just feel more pressure there, or in a big hockey town. Maybe that’s Reimer. I suspect there’s a bit of that, a bit of extra pressure he places on himself. Over time, that sort of thing should work its way out.
I say… play him. but let’s stop talking about his work from last year as though it somehow means this kid is gonna be a .930 guy at evens all his life.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
And I think – for the 100th time – he’s still not recovered.
There was even a quote of his talking about how he’s still working back towards 100% so I think if that’s the case that Wilson needs to keep running with Goose because we’ve all seen season’s go down the drain by sticking with goalies that aren’t 100% healthy.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I thought we were talking about shots from the point that should be easy to stop, and that for some reason Reimer was letting in on the PK.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Maybe the reason Reimer’s stats are so bad are that people like this guy keep moving the goalposts on him?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
its totally Reimers fault that the fronting system caused his defenders to screen him and turn all of Schenn’s shot blocks into seeing eye shots
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
Lets use that excuse for Gus… oh wait you cant because it doesn’t seem to adversely affect his play somehow… he on the other hand just generally sucks, right?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
or that the PK system has tightened up and they are giving gus an easier time and that is why there is such a drastic swing in PK numbers for the goalies?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
So…Gus is magic? And can see through people?
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
.
he can see through time!
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because that arguement doesn’t make sense. Gus is a shutout goaltender on the PK but at even strength is .910? Gus has played well I will give him that but he is not the only reason the PK is better. The team is playing better as well as guys like Brown and Lombardi have made a huge difference.
When losing an argument on the internet, be sure to attack someones grammar. That is the only way to save face.
exactly and if the whole Gus can stop all shots from the point, why wouldn’t they collapse down 5on5 and leave the points more open then as well…
I wonder if Reimer is feelings some effects from his concussion
Maybe he has no headaches and can exercise to exertion just fine, but has a bit of vision issues when it comes to tracking the puck like he used to and that is why they aren’t playing him…
he’s given up some uncharacteristic soft goals lately. but Gus have given up some characteristic ones lately as well.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
this is what I mean. Maybe he’s fine 99% of the time but that 100th shot he can’t pick up for whatever reason anymore.
see every goalie ever, every single one of them, every hall of famer let in a easy stopper they would have had any other time about once every 4-5 games, just like every shitty goalie makes an insane save every 4-5 games
it’s the rest of the time that matters
Gus let in a horrid goal both of his last games, but one came in a 4-1 win so people brush it off
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
I know. I wasn’t saying he should be perfect I’m just wondering what Reimer’s issue is because I refuse to believe he’s not the starter when he’s 100% healthy
or maybe its that he has just had a small body of work and his errors stick out
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Reimer should be playing. There’s no reason for him not to be.
What’s RW’s logic? Possibly:
A) Reimer hasn’t won a game in his last 4 starts, with only 1 game above .882 in that stretch.
B) Showcasing Gus for a trade?
One has to think with all their fancy iPads they’re aware of the ES SV% difference.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions
A) Reimer hasn’t won a game in his last 4 start
Leafs have averaged only 2.5 goals for in those games. (3,3,2,2)
B) Showcasing Gus for a trade?Showcasing for trades is something made up by the MSM and fans.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You mean that GMs don’t make trades based on a player’s last 4-5 games of play???
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Skinny used to be a big fan of those 5-game moving average graphs…what ever happened to those…?
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know, let’s call up Sutter and ask him about how great Mayersr was playing before his trade.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
i’m not arguing in favor of those. i’m just spitballing. clearly there’s no logical reason to be starting Gus over Reimer rate now, so all we’re left with is illogical explanations.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a fair point. I think the most likely explanation is that Wilson is desperate for wins and grasping at the faint chance that Gustavsson really is better.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jan 23, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
At this moment, Goose IS better. Long-term, I don’t think so. Next year Reimer’s PK sv% will likely pick up and then people will start looking for reasons for why that is and it’ll come down to “he’s battling harder” or “positioning” or the opposite of right now.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
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Leafs have averaged only 2.5 goals for in those games. (3,3,2,2)
I don’t think that’s a legit defence of Reimer’s play…
I’m ok with not putting the blame on him if the team only scores 2 goals..
But 3 goals/game is above the league average, and if you don’t win when your offense scores 3 goals, than the goalie is part to blame.
Doesn’t matter if your Gus or Reimer.
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
You’re
wrong and a Gustavsson hater
I don’t understand the big stink about starting Gus. Neither goalie has influenced the outcome of the games very much lately.
If Ron Wilson is looking at EV sv pct, then he’s looking at PK sv pct, too. If I were Ron Wilson, looking at those numbers, and my piss poor PK this season – I’d start Gus too.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
If I were Ron Wilson, looking at those numbers, and my piss poor PK this season
Except………(points to third paragraph)
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Frankly I don’t care why, I just care that it is the way it currently is.
I’m sure Ron Wilson is thinking the same thing. I don’t know why Gus has been our best goalie this season, but he has.
And quite frankly, he has. Not that it’s saying much.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Why is it a given that the PK improvement is solely on the skaters and not the most important player on the PK, the goalie? I think it lacks common sense not to see that connection. The only way would be to have Reimer in net and get scored on the PK to and Gus not to allow one to settle it?
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
because a goalies job doesn’t really change from ES to PK, he plays the same angles, his positioning is basically the same, but the players play a whole new system, they have different assignments, react differently to plays and basically change everything they do
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
The job doesn’t change, but how a goalie does the work changes for sure.
There’s more traffic, more deflections, more shots, more passing, more puck possession in the D-zone; therefore more crouch time.
EV hockey is different from PK hockey for everyone on the ice.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
actually there is probably less traffic with less people on the ice, this is where the man advantage comes into play where a guy is left out in the open
but even if there is “more” deflections and “more” shots, then why wont the positioning that works well to stop shots 1-4 not stop shot 5? does the fact that 4 shots preceding it magically make it phase through the goalie?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
No there is more traffic. Any team with half a brain has one player planted in front of the goalie on PP. This is the advantage of having an extra player on the ice. The luxury of one man to simply screen the goalie at every opportunity. And if that man is left out in the open – then he is getting a clean look that he might not get at evens.
then why wont the positioning that works well to stop shots 1-4 not stop shot 5? does the fact that 4 shots preceding it magically make it phase through the goalie?
Fatigue. Plain and simple.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
that never happens at even strength!
I mean what sort of super genious would think of using a player to stand in front of the net at 5v5?
no players EVER get tired on ES!
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
No, no, this was on Doctor Who the other night.
When a team goes down 4-on-5, the imbalance causes a tear in the fabric of space-time, resulting in an alternate universe where entirely different goaltending skills are required.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
You guys are being obtsue for no good reason. I didn’t say different goaltending skills are required, and I don’t think Gus magically possess these mythical skills and Reimer doesn’t. I’m not even trying to thow up a defence for Gus. Nothing like that.
I simply take issue with saying the goalies job doesn’t change from the skaters on the PK.
Of course screens, fatigue, deflections, etc… happens at evens, I didn’t say otherwise. You’re putting words in my mouth. Sustained offensive pressure leads to fatigue and defensive breakdowns. Doesn’t matter the on-ice situation. PP, EV, PK. Typically, there is just more sustained offensive pressure when killing a PK. It leads to fatigue for everyone on the ice, including the goalie.
You both, really, geniunely, believe defending on the PK is different on the ice for everyone except the goalie?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Just get used to it, its the way PPP is when you swim against the stream.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
We’ve all disagreed with the majority at one point or another. The best way to handle it is to give thought out, articulated answers.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
argue until you are blue in your internet face
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
you should know, you’re one of the worst
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
It’s not our fault you’re choosing to disregard the black and white statistics and make up some sort of fairy tale about why Jonas gustavsson is suddenly the best goaltender in the world but only on the penalty kill.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
YEA. Judas invented CORSI but then he decided to name it after some other dude so then no one would know.
Emo Girl Wing of Leafs Nation
Fun Fact: Jim Corsi didn’t invent Corsi as it is currently used. He only used it to measure the workload of a goaltender.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
Yup…wasn’t he from Buffalo?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah and come here hungry because here at PPP we put words in your mouth to help curb your hunger.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
welcome to the valley of the informed, where bias is judged and stupidity scorned
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
PPP – don’t bring your elementary school level argumentative skills in here.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
i liked mine better, it rhymed
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
i was going for 50 cent rhyming, not 2pac
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
scorned and informed rhymes
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
You should checking out my commenting history. I know
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I (don’t want to speak for other people) am reacting to the idea that Gus is better than Reimer on the PK. If that’s not what you’re saying, apologies. A fair number are, and yet no one has a good explanation for why.
The point is that Reimer hasn’t been as bad as people think, but rather has been just as good as last year, but for the PK. Since the PK doesn’t require special skills, there’s no reason to think that those numbers will stay as bad. Gus’ better numbers are the result of (partly) better PK numbers, but there is little evidence that those PK numbers predict overall success.
If you’re not making a point about comparing Gus and Reimer on the PK, apologies again.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
If you’re not making a point about comparing Gus and Reimer on the PK, apologies again.
I wasn’t.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm except don’t the Leafs play a box so the open man is actually at the point or on the half wall? and the 2 guys down low are still covered by a dman?
who knows and who cares – that isn’t the point.
The point is defending on the PK is different for everyone on the ice, including the Goalie
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
i bet goalies play 2 on 1s way different on the PP than they do on ES
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Do you mean in both situations the goal isn’t to stop the puck? How they do is really irrelevant isn’t it? So how is it different? I don’t mean to sound like a jackass – it comes easy.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
Seriously, there is no magical skill that makes a goalie better at stopping pucks on the PK than any other on-ice scenario.
But stopping pucks on the PK is different than Evens, for a host of reasons.
On the balance of things better goalies stop more pucks regardless of scenario.
Reimer is the better goalie, “on the balance of things” and I’d like to see him play tomorrow with this new found Leafs PK.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Are you suggesting that Gustavsson turns on some sort of “overdrive” when the Leafs are down a man? That he’s naturally better at taking improved chances – but not when it’s 5 on 5?
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Clearly the solution is to play Reimer at evens and sub in Gustavsson for PKs
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I think what is trying to be said is that so far Gus has been the better goalie so far this year especially when you factor the PK play in. Like MapleLeafMole said, that doesn’t bold well.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
no he hasen’t
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
I mean … if you look at it closer it’s a matter of play and circumstance. I’d like to see Remier get a decent crack at it, with the Leafs improved PK.
But I think we’re giving Ron Wilson too much credit, if we think he’s looking at the 2 goalies stats that closely.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Gus has been steady in net i totally agree with letting him play and anyways we got back-2-back against the isles so likely Reimer is in net the next game regardless….so RELAX, Reimer will get his shot again
Except that Gustavsson played back to back in two losses to Buffalo and NYR 10 days ago so…….
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
And Reimer played back to back games just prior to Christmas.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jan 23, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
Leafs scored 2 goals combined in those games. Gus’ goal support has dried up. That said, Reimer should be the guy.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
I will withhold the anger if Gustavsson starts tomorrow
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
me too… Reimer should be in net tomorrow
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
right
If Gustavsson is in net tomorrow, I will be upset, right now? Nah
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
same
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Lambert'd
James Reimer played when the PK was shit and so his PK stats are shit. Then Gustavsson started playing when the Leafs put extensive amounts of time into practicing/revamping their PK, so his PK stats look much better. Ergo, Gustavsson is the better goalie and should play 3 games in 4 days.
- a dumbass
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 2:01 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Except Reimer hasn’t had a REALLY good game since the opening night shutout.
/chewmelambert
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
he hasn’t
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
He threw up a .952 in a win against Buffalo, stopping 40 of 42. I’d say that was getting up there.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Single game save percentage is dumb.
But Yeah Reimer has had some good games, for sure. My bad
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I heard that you wanted Reimer.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Jan 23, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Gustavsson defenders have moved from relying on a small sample of data from recent games to relying on a subset of a small sample of data from recent games. Brilliant.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
What is the arguement exactly for starting Reimer? Honest question, I’m not being facetious.
Is it because he has the better EV sv pct?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
and he is the better goalie
and he wasnt the one who was terrible against Montreal on sat
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Well he let in one stinker at least. Our whole team fucked up that game though.
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I concur
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
How was Gus terrible on Saturday?
Fucking Gus didn’t score a single goal, that’s how! I mean the other skaters scored… I mean even Lombardi scored and so did…
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
I think what he really asking if gus brought the compete.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Jan 23, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
3 goals on 23 shots. 870 SV%
I’m aware that using SV% for one game isn’t the greatest method of determining quality but giving up 3 goals on 23 shots is pretty poor.
He wasn’t “terrible” but he wasn’t “good”. He kept a disinterested team in the game for 50 minutes and then gave up a backbreaker to make it 3-1.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
As opposed to Reimer’s last game, 3 goals on 21 shots .857%………………
And a backbreaker of a weak goal that gave a totally overplayed team the win. Reimer also wasn’t good in his last game but that shouldn’t be used as a determining factor in whether he should play the next game.
Again, I think Reimer is the better goalie for sure but a lot of criticism has heaped on Gus in the last few games where the whole team hasn’t been playing well.
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
Last night didn’t MAF let in 3 goals on 17 shots for the W? He must suck too.
"There's been four different Cup winners the last four years, and I got one of them (Anaheim) and it was a fighting team. We're playing it that way regardless." - B. Burke, Toronto Maple Leafs GM
He’s not really that good either.
"If you've ever questioned whether or not @dboyce47 is a gamer, well, the answer is as plain as the nose that used to be on his face." - Sean Boulton
This is a tweet.
Yes Reimer is the better goalie. I agree. But recently, Gus has played better to the naked eye and judging by some surface stats like Wins, GAA and Save percentage. That and Remier has been unlucky and Gus has been lucky this past 2-3 months.
You’re frustrated because you’re expecting too much from Ron Wilson.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yea, the argument is that his EV% is far superior to Gus and his PK % is due to improve due to regression to the mean
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
So who’s willing to take loses, while Reimer’s PK % gets back to normal?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
who is willing to take losses while Gus’s ES numbers remain pedestrian?
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno, but its basically picking between the lesser of 2 mediocre goalies. Seriously, one starts tonight the other tomorrow – what’s the difference?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Would you have started Reimer twice?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Isn’t the point of having two goalies to like… let them split up back to backs?
Emo Girl Wing of Leafs Nation
There’s a week off after Tuesday until the next game.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
I dunno – Jonas started both the Buffalo and New York losses in last week’s b2b.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
and we all agreed it was the wrong choice
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
yeah…like I don’t understand the outrage here
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
I’d say Gus was the hot hand going into that weekend but currently, everyone is cold, i’d like to see a split and winner get’s the next game
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
Bower as a fellow goalie back me up… b2b’s or even 2 games in a day (tournaments) after a week off is easier than 4 games in 8 days.
At least it was for me
I’m a goalie, 20 plus years. b2b doesn’t bother me all that much, unless I had some minor injury I was playing through. That said I never played pro of any fashion and certainly not in the NHL.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
When I was playing regularly, I split time with another goalie – rarely had to do b2bs because of it. But yeah, at the professional level especially, I don’t think one B2B should be impossible. I’d be opposed except that the all-star break will provide a good recovery period.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
I played goalie for a long time. None of us played in the NHL. I don’t know how tired I’d be after and how that would effect my ability to stop pucks at an incredibly high level.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
this is true but as I said above I think players have it worse on b2b because of the bumps and bruises
You played goal but never had bumps and bruises?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Brodeur and Kipper have played a few 70+ game seasons not including playoffs between them. Pretty sure there were a few back to back games in there.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jan 23, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
even if he let’s in a weak goal in a close game?
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
exactly, I don’t get it
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Why don’t they just split both games, and who cares who plays first?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
My opinion is that since the Leafs have started taking less penalties, it’d be a better play to start Reimer since his EV% numbers are far superior and the Leafs spend far more of their time at Evens or up a man than on the PK
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
who are these defenders exactly? and was this entire post an attempt to pull them out of the woodworks and troll them?
i’ve been one of Gus’s biggest defenders for the last 2 years, but it’s pretty clear to me Reimer needs to start soon and start often.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
fight!
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I came out strongly in favour of giving Gus a real chance earlier in the year. That didn’t and doesn’t mean I think he’s earned Reimer’s job. All Reimer has done to lose the job is get concussed, and have some bad luck on the PK. It should still be his job to lose, and Gus hasn’t been nearly good enough to take it away.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jan 23, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
You’re just being an asshole at this point. Gus has a better save %, better GAA, more wins, and has played mroe games where they other team was shut out or shutdown this entire season than Reimer.
So you come on and say the GUS backers are using a subset of data?
Farce.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
The Leafs have mismanaged their goaltending since the lockout. Why stop now?
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
by birky on Jan 23, 2012 2:25 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Ron Wilson isn’t actually stupid enough to put a goalie with a history of heart procedures related to an erratic heartbeat in net for 3 games in 4 days, is he?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
never under estimate Wilson
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
They misunderestimate him!
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Jan 23, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
yep, it’s not so much that Gus starts tonight, but Reimer really should get another chance especially since they just played on Saturday. If only to rest Gus – even if he’s the starter now, he still shouldn’t get overworked.
But leave it to Wilson and his simplistic “win and you’re in” thinking to lose us games.
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Jan 23, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think we’ve found the answer… RW is trying to kill Gus off so he can bring in someone new
by Chi-town leafs on Jan 23, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much. It’s snowballed to the point where the Leafs are hoping Joans Gustavsson can pull out a must win tonight…Maybe i’m just numb to the whole thing
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Reimer is still suffering from ‘whiplash’ symptoms.*
Geez guys, all you have to do is call his mom.
*may not be true, but probably is.
"You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else."
Albert Einstein
by Say *plan the parade one more time*... on Jan 23, 2012 2:26 PM EST reply actions
Using the you win and you’re in system it’s time to start Scrivens again.
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 2:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I want to think that this isnt just stupid decision making.
So my conspiracy theory is that Reimer is still not feeling well and the Leafs arent telling us. But honestly Reimer would be owning with the better PK.
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
All I know is the more we lose, the more we debate, apparently. Did I just read about 600 comments alone (combined with FTB thread) on Gus vs Reimer? God I hope Burke makes a trade soon to give us something else to discuss.
Dupuis for Lundqvist!
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Jan 23, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
For anyone who just got here and doesn't want to read all the comments, here's the Coles Notes version:
Some people prefer Reimer and some people prefer Gustavsson, rabble rabble, Wilson grrr but replace with who but give him a chance but grrr why does he do the things he does rabble rabble grrrr
I think we all just need this horrible Monday to end so we can watch the game tonight and cheer and cry and drink lots of drinks.
by Jo4nny on Jan 23, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
These past few games I’ve been doign a lot less cheering and a lot more drinking.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
I think your narrative is well written but it needs more Morgan Freeman.
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Remember that time that Burke let some minor league player whod probably never crack the NHL go for nothing and we discussed it in around 1800 comments?
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
Mr. Champagne himself. What terrible asset management!
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
this season is getting boring. i’m sick of these same old arguments. give me something new to talk about.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
I dont even care if I freak out over the trade….just some hockey meat to gnaw on. Something other than “we’re a bubble team, our goaltending is not real good, neither is our defense, and oh, we’ve stopped scoring right when the former two both starting getting better”. Post-lockout continues to crush my soul, little by little. I had hope this season, and it is slowly being strangled by mediocrity.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
i told my wife the other day that if the Leafs don’t make the playoffs this season it might just kill my hope forever. i don’t just mean about hockey. i mean in life. i can’t go on like this much longer.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
holy shit good thing you’re not a Cubs fan.
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
…. this is why I have accepted the results in December and so far this month with a surprising lack of depression… I’ve followed the Cubs for too long
by Chi-town leafs on Jan 23, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
I know how you feel. There’s so much going right for this team that may not repeat itself that it would be devastating to see it end in tears.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
my hope lies crying on the ground, and you decide to stomp on it? Have you no shame, sir??!
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Graphs don’t care about your feelings.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
inconsistent teams
It was an attempt to answer how many years a “rebuild takes” though every situation is unique. Philly did it in a year. Pittsburgh and Boston in a couple and some teams a long long long time
Why Can’t Clarky Mark get assists any more?
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
ok someone page Bonnie Raitt
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
A little mystery to figure out
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think what bugs us the most about these last couple losses (save the NYR game) is that the Leafs really should have won them but essentially either gave up after the 1st period or just somehow couldnt buy goals in the 2nd and 3rd.
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
Both games it seemed like the other teams goalie made a few amazing saves in a row, or we’d have some spectacularly bad puck luck (puck bounces over Lupul’s stick in the crease with a wide open net) which caused our team to get frustrated, start looking for perfect plays and thereby us not score and lose the game.
You can tell looking at our players too. Both games when Mtl and ott scored the go ahead goals I knew we were done.
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
Reimer: .931 ES SVP, .771 PK SVP
Gustavsson: .911 ES SVP, .857 PK SVP
Toronto: ES SA/60: 29.7, PK SA/60: 49.0.
Hypothetically, let’s say the Leafs take just one penalty. They’ll play 58 minutes ES, 2 on the PK. At the SA/60 rates, you would expect Reimer to give up 2.355 goals, and Gustavsson to give up 2.789. This number evens out around 52.5 minutes of even strength play, or 7.5 PIM. The Leafs need to take 4 or more penalties before playing Gustavsson over Reimer based on past PK SVP performance even starts to make sense, and that’s assuming that Reimer’s PK SVP play stays constant (it probably won’t).
If the split looks like 48 ES, 6 PK, 6 PP, you’re still better off playing Reimer (2.76) than Gus (2.82).
Reimer’s the better option.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
by Bower Power on Jan 23, 2012 3:28 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Thank you for elaborating on my point above
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
What should do him in is this: Gus is 1-3 in his last 4 starts. Arguably against teams the Leafs should have beat, and in many of those games he gave up at least one god awful goal that squeeked in because he has some aversion to the post.
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
Whats SO annoying about all these loses is that most are by 1 goal, at LEAST force overtime once or twice. It seems that everytime the Leafs have teams competing in other games they force 3 point games but these lack of loser points are going to bury the Leafs.
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
that seemed to fall on the offense more of late than not. 2 and 1 goals against ottawa and montreal respectively. i mean, sure theoretically we can win games 1-0 or 2-1. but that’s not really the way this team is built.
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Also I just looked it up and the Leafs are around the middle of the league in terms of OT appearances so I guess that makes my point moot. Recently however the Leafs have had very few OTs.
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
My biggest concern in both the Ottawa and Montreal losses were the lack of shots generated after both those teams went ahead on the score-sheet.
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
my concern in those games is that we sucked in them.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
well, any goalie, but some more than others. Price and Anderson were both beatable.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
True. But in both games we didn’t push back the way we should have after going down. Maybe I’m alone here, but I didn’t get the sense that we’d tie it up in either game after conceding the go-ahead goal.
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
Watching those games, we rarely had shots that had a real good chance of going in. Either too few people in front of the net, or too many people and the shot didn’t get through.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Via Mirtle
Marlies send Jussi Rynnas to the ECHL. Team had been carrying three goalies – this will get him some playing time.
24 minutes ago
Does this mean that Owuya has moved up on the depth chart?
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
I’d say it probably means he’s passed Rynnas
by Chi-town leafs on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, he definitely has. Maybe he’ll turn out to be what we all hoped Gus would be.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Jan 23, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
With one caveat: with Rynnas returning from injury, this could be about conditioning more than ability.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
It really has to be
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Not has to be. Owuya has a .932 over his 5 games in the AHL (includes his previous callup – he’s gone 43 for 47 (.915) in about 4 periods of play for this callup) and Scrivens 97 for 106 (.915) in his last four, and .934 over his last three. If you’re riding the hot hand, Rynnas could easily be down for a bit.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
It’s nice to have prospects, but you don’t make the playoffs based on prospect depth.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Wasn’t Jussi injured recently?
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yes. He took a high shot off the mask last week, was replaced by Owuya. Had some concussion-like symptoms, and the Marlies were running Scrivens/Owuya. They both looked good, and get to stay in the A.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
I like having 3 goalies all too good for the ECHL battling it out for AHL time, although I don’t like not having enough minutes to go around. Its a shame we couldn’t loan an AHL team one of them to get them AHL minutes
yeah its just that given the age differences, Owuya should probably take it to the AHL if he can keep up this ridiculous pace….he needs the more difficult competition, evidently.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Gus is being shopped
plain and simple. to tampa
What the heck would we get back?
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
Showcasing for trades is something made up by the MSM and fans.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
…and I’m going to rec that every time you post it.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jan 23, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Showcasing for trades is something made up by the MSM and fans.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Gus is being shopped? I dunno, all his pixels look normal to me.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
by Chemmy on Jan 23, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Reimer
is the reason we lost to ottawa
are we afraid to admit hes terrible at the moment?
hes been playing on his goal line all year!
oh god you’re going to get destroyed with statistics any moment….
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
His bad for getting interfered with on the first goal, and then sat on by Spezza as if he were a couch for the 2nd. He’ll try harder net time. He promises.
Make no mention that the team in front of him only scored 2 goals on 39 shots.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
I feel bad that you actually had to go over that.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
My god that Spezza goal was utter bullshit. That kind of reffing is unacceptable.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Can we all agree that regardless of who plays in goal for us at the moment we need to score 4 goals to win?
Offizielles Mitglied des Müller / Holzer Fan-Clubs. Ich fordere mehr Deutsche in diesem Team ....... wir brauchen Greiss.
I’ll take 3 goals to get it to OT/SO and maybe somehow win
by Chi-town leafs on Jan 23, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I SAID MAKE NO MENTION THAT THE TEAM FAILED TO REGISTER MORE THAN 2 GOALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What of the MTL game saturday night? Where the Leafs scored but once?
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Generally when you score one or two goals you don’t win. This is not new.
The only difference between Gus giving up 3 and getting the win and Gus giving up 3 and getting the loss is that in the wins the Leafs were scoring 4 or 5.
So basically if you’re a goalie and you need your team to score 5 goals for you to win you better get the hell back to 1984 or learn how to be a better goalie.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
yeah unless you’re the late 1990s/early 2000s NJD, you need more than one or two goals.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
So basically if you’re a goalie and you need your team to score 5 goals for you to win you better get the hell back to 1984 or learn how to be a better goalie.
For sure, both Leafs goalies are having this problem recently.
One plays tonight the other tomorrow.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Have I, at any point here, said anything about Gus shitting the bed? Did I even bring up Gustavsson in the post except to say that he’s starting tonight and has a higher overall sv% than Reimer?
No.
What I am saying is that I’m tired of people using the win column to compare goaltenders and lacking context when they say PlayerX had a shit game.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
and lacking context when they say PlayerX had a shit game.
Bless your heart
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
What I am saying is that I’m tired of people using the win column to compare goaltenders and lacking context when they say PlayerX had a shit game.
Fair and agreed.
But I, for one, am not using the win column to indicate Gus has been playing better recently. He’s just been the better option in net, based on everything but Ev sv pct.
It’s the best indicator of a goalies true talent – but that applies over broad sample sizes.
That, and I’d be suprised if Ron Wilson knew that even strength save % is the best indicator of a goalies true talent level.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
It hurts.
Oh my God my head hurts so goddamn much right now.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Your poor little head
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
~
He’s just been the better option in net, based on everything but Ev sv pct.
David Steckel is an center – he’s been great in everything except for assist generation.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
by Bower Power on Jan 23, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nothing shows an actor’s commitment to a bit quite like having his head blown up.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
He done blowed up real good.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jan 23, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
If you want to start discounting every stat for a goalie, except even strength save percentage, fine.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
It’s far and away the best way we know to evaluate a goalie. It stays steady year to year for the most part.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
For sure, year to year.
In much smalller sample sizes, as we seem to be using here, it just isn’t as stable.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I see he comes from the John Steigerwald School of Burden of Proof.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Guys. Be serious. The body of work, the data well you’re hauling from, is 37 games last year vs 18 this year.
So….. the data says that what he did during those 37 is somehow overwhelmingly more solid than the 18 this year?
I like Reimer better. He should be starting. But why are we working the data so hard?
It’s a bit like with Frattin. I love the guy. but he hit posts with his shots. If 3 more had gone in, he’ be in the Top 10 scoring rookies and we’d be arguing he should get the Calder. They didn’t, he’s in the minors. But the data doesn’t give me much.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
The body of work is what is. But just because it’s too small to be viewed as gospel doesn’t mean it can be completely ignored.
58 games – 931 SV%
90 games – 909 SV%, last 7 games – 929%
Those are the numbers. Black and fucking white. Do with them what you will.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
For the two goalies to have the same ES SV% 90 games into their career, James Reimer needs to post an .869 SV% over the next 32 games.
That’s worse than Vesa Toskala.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
No, those are not “the” numbers. Those are SOME numbers. Ones you’ve picked. And apparently, you believe a 38 game series sets a player’s course for life, whereas their next 18 games have to be an anomaly. To which…
ha.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
The point is that Reimer’s ES sv% has been roughly the same this season and last, and that the drop in his overall sv% is due to a drop in pk sv%.
In other words, the 18 games he’s played this season aren’t an anomaly; he’s playing just as well as ever, according to the most reliable metric we have. The stats this season have confirmed that what he did last year is indicative of his true talent level.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Nope. Because “the most reliable metric you have” happens to have an appalling reliability record when dealing with so few games.
I guess it’s just because we want Reimer to do so well, but has anyone ever heard of a rookie goalie playing well, and then tailing off over his career? How about one that only played 38 games in that first season? How about one who started hot, and whose save % actually tracked downward a bit over the course of even that first year?
It’s not about the metric. It’a not a bad metric. It’s about how much substance we have to plug in. And we really – really – don’t have very much.
Unless, being Leaf fans, we all just want to close our eyes and believe that every rookie goalie lives up to his 1st year stats for the rest of his career.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
You can think that we haven’t seen enough of Reimer to have a sense of his true talent level. Don’t confuse the argument re. ES SV% as saying that we shouldn’t count his numbers this season, or that this season is an anomaly. The claim is actually the exact opposite of that.
In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.
Comedian.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
And also, if you’re serious, you might wanna pull that punch back a notch.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Because "the most reliable metric you have" happens to have an appalling reliability record when dealing with so few games.
Challenge flag is thrown. I’d like your proof for the assertion that the reliability record is anywhere near a commonly accepted definition of “appalling”.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Challenge Flag Accepted.
Ok. Both you and Skinny want some back up on this. Fair enough. So, here’s 45 minutes worth of “Research.” (Ha!)
I took goalies playing today or recently out of the league, who have been around for a few years. Which means I’ve already thrown out the best guys to make my case, namely, goalies who played well then flamed out, ok? (Which is, in the parlance, me being extra fair.)
Maybe the best way to do this (especially since I haven’t the time nor the chops for massive, all-in, stats analysis!) is to give you some EV SV% figures from various goalies in their first two years.
YOUR job is then to play Ron Wilson or Brian Burke and PICK THE TOP-NOTCH GOALIE!
Also, try not to cheat.
1. .937 and .940. (Goalie with probably the closest-to-Reimer stats.)
2. .898 and .914. (Not great %’s, also a 16 pt range.)
3. .925 and .911. (Started well, then 14 pt fall-off.)
4. .916 and .930. (Started ok, then rose to well above average.)
5. .880 and .941. (Started awful, then… wow. A 61 pt gain.)
6. .910 and .910 (Steady as a rock. But a notch below what we want.)
7. .920 and .919 (Steady, not bad in first two years.)
8. .907 and .943 (Variable, perhaps really improving – a 36 pt jump.)
9. .920 and .907 (Started ok, then tailed off.)
10. .934 and .925 (Good score. Looks solid.)
11. .917 and .878. (Looked ok, then died – down 39 pts.)
12. .926 and .925 (Steady, potentially high enough, right?)
13. .879 and .923 (Awful, then big jump of 44 pts.)
14. .889 and .907 (Another bad start, jumped to fair.)
15. .931 and .929 (High and steady.)
How useful are the results of these early years EV Save %? Well, basically you want an NHL starter to get somewhere North of a .920 EV Save %, with the league median being around .925 for starters.
But there appear to be only 6 guys out of 15 who even came close to what we’d like to see – hitting .915 in both of their first two years. [These are closest to being Reimer’s statistical peers.]
So, who are magical #’s 1, 4, 7, 10, 12 and 15?
1. Vesa Toskala… the closest match with Reimer. Both first years above .930. Then tailed off to 913-919, then down to 903 and out.
4. Ray Emery… human yo-yo.
7. JS Aubin… do I need to say?
10. Martin Gerber… Fail.
12. Pekka Rinne… looks like the real deal, now in year 4.
15. Evgeni Nabokov…. also not too damned shabby.
So which one is Reimer? A Toskala? A Rinne? An Aubin? An Emery?
Let’s look a bit more widely, and remember… this is even with having thrown the flailers out. In my view, when you see all the names below, it’s tough to argue that these early years EV Save % stats can tell us who will be a good starter.
1. .937 and .940. (Goalie with probably the closest-to-Reimer stats.) TOSKALA.
2. .898 and .914. (Not great #’s, also a 16 pt range.) MA FLEURY
3. .925 and .911. (Started well, then 14 pt fall-off.) STEVE MASON
4. .916 and .930. (Started ok, then rose to above average.) RAY EMERY
5. .880 and .941. (Started awful, then… wow.) RAZOR
6. .910 and .910 (Steady as a rock. But lower than we want.) THE MONSTER
7. .920 and .919 (Steady, but improved.) JS AUBIN
8. .907 and .943 (Variable, perhaps really improving.) C HUET
9. .920 and .907 (Started ok, then tailed a bit.) BRIAN ELLIOTT
10. .934 and .925 (Good score. Looks solid.) M GERBER
11. .917 and .878. (Looked ok, then died.) KIPPER
12. .926 and .925 (Steady, potentially high enough, right?) P RINNE
13. .879 and .923 (Awful, then big jump.) J THEODORE
14. .889 and .907 (Another bad start, jumped to fair.) R DIPIETRO
15. .931 and .929 (High and steady. Take the risk?) E NABOKOV
So, for me, from this list, there are 5 guys I might want as a longer-term starter – Fleury, Huet, Kipper, Rinne and Nabby. And both Fleury and Kipper looked fairly ugly in their early years, with 898, 914, 917 and 878. Whereas Nabby and Rinne looked good right out of the gate. But then again, Gerber and Toskala and Aubin looked as good or better than 3 of my fave starters.
Then, to make the mess even worse, you see the guys whose Save %‘s you can’t really read at all. 880 and 941 for Razor, 907 and 943 for Huet, 879 and 923 for Theodore??
And how do you read Mason’s 925 and 911? Or Elliott’s 920 and 907? I mean, what do you have there?
In sum, as argued, the variability of these early years EV Save % for goalies is very high (the ones listed swung an average of 19 ppoints by my count, which is a huge distance in terms of NHL keepers.)
And more importantly, whether stable or variable, the reliability of this figure for helping us to pick out an NHL goalie seems to me to be almost nil.
And if you don’t think so, remember…. Toskala at 937 and 940.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, because obviously being mediocre for +90% of the game is a great way to be a great goaltender.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
You said prove that the measure was unreliable. I certainly haven’t proven it, but I think I just drove some fairly big holes in it.
Which is miles ahead of whatever point you just made.
Ok. Have a day.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
For what it’s worth, checked a few of the biggest name starters.
Thomas and Lundquist have been high and steady since they started in the league. Thomas started quite high at 925 and 920 (then rose to 933 and 940.) Henrik is steady as hell, 929 and 931 (then 922, 920, 929, 930.)
Others are more like those above, mostly flopping around. Breezy went 919, 907 (then 934, 918.) Miller went 901, 919 (then 928, 915) in Buffalo. Luongo went 908 and 930 to start. Hiller was steady at 931 and 934 (and since.) Vokoun looked iffy, at 920 and 912 (then 917 and 897.)
I suspect a full data set would show some of the biggest names looking strong from the start – as above – and then there’d likely be a long list of guys who never fully made it, and who either came in strong then flamed, or who came in weak and left.
I’d like a steady 930, please.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 24, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
It’s not about discounting stats – it’s about accepting that not all stats are equal, and that some stats have better bearing than others. Suggesting that Gus is a better goaltender because he has a better PK SVP is like comparing Sami Lepisto’s +10 makes him a better defenseman than Lidstrom and his -2.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
That’s a good point. Detroit should trade Lidstrom for Lepisto.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
it’s about accepting that not all stats are equal, and that some stats have better bearing than others.
Absolutely. But no one stat alone is omnipotent.
Suggesting that Gus is a better goaltender because he has a better PK SVP is like comparing
Absolutely. I haven’t suggested such yet, and don’t intend to ever.
I still don’t see the big issue with starting Gus on the front half of a back to back.
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
I still don’t see the big issue with starting Gus on the front half of a back to back.
For reasons previously mentioned, there’s reason to believe James Reimer – if healthy – would give the Toronto Maple Leafs a better chance to win than Jonas Gustavsson.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
What I am saying is that I’m tired of people using the win column to compare goaltenders and lacking context when they say PlayerX had a shit game.
Did completely miss that part
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
When the team takes less than 4 penalties, we should be able to win with 3 goals for. Anything higher means the goaltenders underperformed relative to expectations, and that they should at least bear some of the blame. See above.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
it doesnt matter if they scored 2
that goal in the 3rd was absolutely horrible and a momentum killer
Even if it was, to say that Reimer alone cost us that game is a bit much, methinks.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
okay maybe not reimer alone, but cmon
that should never go in
he was outplayed by anderson and we lost
Didn’t know games were settled like ancient Greek battles in a 1on1 competition between goaltenders.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
you didn’t see Reimer and Anderson jousting>? What did you think you were watchign, some sort of team game? NO! Anderson nearly took off Reimer’s head, and in the horse riding competition he also stepped it up a notch.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Side note
Watching the Pens-Caps game from this weekend, there was a commercial for FULL METAL JOUSTING!!!!!!!!!
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Hm, sure are a lot of Gus defenders on here that I’ve literally never seen on this site before. All the same person?
TWEET AT ME BRO
DAAAAA BLOG
Leaf fan for life! (No, really. They gave me a no-trade clause when I was born.)
by FiftyMissionCap on Jan 23, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions
Not so much a gus defender
but its ridiculous that leaf fans are afraid to admit reimer has been terrible
im much more comfortable with gus in net right now
reimer has zero confidence
No one is afraid to admit he’s terrible. It’s just not accurate to admit he’s terrible.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Do you have a buzz word of the day calendar that you’re reading from or what?
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Cox Cocky Hockey Word of the Day.
Tomorrow’s is “compete” used in any way other than as a verb.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I “con-quer” with your opinion.
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 24, 2012 8:49 AM EST up reply actions
His numbers at ES really tend to suggest that he’s not always terrible.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
He’s confidence whenever there are 5 Leafs on the ice, but soul-crushingly depressed whenever he’s missing one of his friends.
“You get a penalty, then you go to the box for two minutes and you Reimer feels shame insecure.”
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
VRN hasn’t been on all morning and now there’s like 20 gus defenders.
Someone’s been creating accounts all morning…
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ok then VRN
I used to love the Leafs... I still do... but I used to, too.
by Chuck Diesel on Jan 23, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Reimer actually has a better ESSV% than last year, and he’s still top 10 in the league for goalies with 10+ starts.
His PKSV% sucks, but then, so did the Leafs PK for all of December.
TWEET AT ME BRO
DAAAAA BLOG
Leaf fan for life! (No, really. They gave me a no-trade clause when I was born.)
by FiftyMissionCap on Jan 23, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
His PKSV% sucks, but then, sodiddoes the Leafs PKfor all of December.
We haven’t had enough opportunities to show our PK is still shitty, but given how bad it’s been since the lockout on each and every one of our teams I’m willing to bet cash its still terrible, just let it prove itself.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
They were actually decent in November. Their PK overall is probably still bad, but it’s an up and down thing.
TWEET AT ME BRO
DAAAAA BLOG
Leaf fan for life! (No, really. They gave me a no-trade clause when I was born.)
by FiftyMissionCap on Jan 23, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
It just feels like the down is so much more down than the up is up, if you know what I mean.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
rabble soft goal against Ottawa. RABBLE!
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
what do you mean? just watching him!
i cant remember the last game he played without letting in a bad goal
i love reimer and i think he’ll bounce back
but hes in a serious sophomore slump right now IMO
Guys like him make it really hard for me around here
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Between randoms like him and all the diving jokes we are lucky this is over the internet or else someone would’ve gotten a chair to the back of the head by now…
I’m not a meathead.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Actually, I have never had to deal with that situation as none of the people I have met from here have had the audacity to be that rude and disrespectful to me to my face.
Having said that, I wouldn’t throw anything or flip you off, I would probably politely tell you to defecate in your chapeau
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Jacques De Mers still cant
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Jan 23, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i cant remember the last game he played without letting in a bad goal
I can think of at least one bad goal in the last 4 Gustavsson starts
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
It shows that your point is complete and utter garbage because the exact same thing can be said about Gustavsson.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
We know. We countered it.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
what??
you countered my point that reimer lets in a lot of bad goals by saying “so does gustavsson”!
You argued Reimer gives up a bad goal evry game. We showed how Gustavsson did too. Hell we have a joke around here about the Gustavsson shut out. Allows a stinker, stops the rest.
You have yet to effectively prove a point
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
As of late, yes he has. WE HAVE ALL ADMITTED THIS.
What you dont get is, Reimer stops more pucks that Gustavsson when the game is at evens where the game is played most. GUstavsson gave up a stinker with 1 min left to ruin a shut out. Gustavsson gave up a stinker to go down 3-1 to MOntreal, if you wanna talk abou momentum lets talk about that
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Gustavsson has not played well either!!!
it has nothing to do with reimer !!!
and thats all my point is
reimer has been playing bad
the “sophomore slump”
gustavsson has atleast been winning most of his games
i dont see a valid reason to start reimer over him right now
Well if win it and you’re in it stands – that’s a good reason
the fact that Gus has forgotten what his hand is is another
oh and one thing people are forgetting is that Reimer hasn’t really gotten much of a shot since he came back. Sure, that’s for good reason as Gus has been playing well, but I think we all know that Reimer is where we’re going to go forward on this team, so we should invest in giving him playing time and showing confidence in his skills
Emo Girl Wing of Leafs Nation
Bookoo appears
to be responding in poetic form
gently allowing the words to pass
from line to line
So it is best
to provide stats and the rest
absent grammatical form
Reimer stop 93 shots
per 100, thus far this year
Gus prevents just 91;
statistically significant.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So then what the fuck is your point?
Reimer gave up bad goals.
Gustavsson gave up bad goals.
Reimer’s got the better save percentage at even strength, which is where 90% of the game is typically played.
WHY ISN’T WILSON STARTING HIS STATISTICALLY BETTER GOALLIEIEEEAsflsdflf
/stroke
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
you wanna talk about STATS
gustavsson has better stats the last 14 games or so
he lets in shit goals too
but if you wanna ride “stats” then dont say reimer is better
Ok, I am not a stats apologist by any means but the whole point of this point was to use stats to prove that Reimer is better.
Emo Girl Wing of Leafs Nation
but gustavsson has a 930 sp (or something similar) OVERALL in the last month
not just ES
so i dont understand you using stats to justify reimer
Over the last month that is true, but Gus has a bigger body of work than just the last 7 games by which we can judge his talent.
Toskala had more impressive 7-10 game stretches in seasons where he put up .890 and .880
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
im pretty sure its closer to 15 games
but why not ride him now that hes actually on an impressive streak?
as opposed to going with reimer whos clearly been the worse of the two
sigh...
he hasnt been playing the way he did last year
you can throw every stat in the book at me
i dont know why no one can admit this
he singlehandedly won games by himself last year, have we forgotten?
do you not see him now, deep in his net, out of position
he needs his confidence back!
he needs his confidence back!
Gustavsson should continue to get played over him (paraphrased)
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ok good!
theres an actual good reason for him to play
but dont tell me to play him because hes been “better statistically”
He has though at ES.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
His intangibles tank is running dry and if he doesn’t up his jam quotient then there’s no way his compete level will be where we need it to get some momentum going.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Better than gus
Resident Internet Tough Guy
by JaredFromLondon on Jan 23, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
gus lets in the bad goals, yes
but he has a winning record
i dont care if he lets in 3 bad goals as long as we score 4
reimer seems to let in bad goals at bad times
reimer seems to let in bad goals at bad times
Prove it
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Seriously?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Let’s play this game with Gustavsson!
Montreal’s 3rd goal – BAD GOAL
Minnesota’s only goal – BAD GOAL
Buffalo’s first 2 goals – BAD GOAL
(I’d include one from the Rangers game but I didn’t watch it)
Thanks for playing CIRCULAR LOGIC FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS!
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Buffalo’s first goal wasnt on Gus…
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
What the fuck does that have to do with goaltending? Every goalie in the league lets in bad goals with surprising frequency. Hell it’s the only way you’re beating Lundqvist, Thomas, etc…. Ovie’s goal on Fleury? Bad goal. Just because they let in stinkers doesn’t mean they suck.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
im much more comfortable with gus in net right now
One of the largest reasons you point to for that is that Reimer allows a bad goal every game. Quite clearly, Gus is doing it too.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
he wasn’t for a while. now he is again…
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Polkaroo
Move along. Nothing to see here...
by Van Ryn's Neurologist on Jan 23, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
What’s that Teddy?
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jan 23, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
VRN’s not making sock puppets. He’s not afraid of voicing his opinion and defending his viewpoint.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
What’s most obvious fact is that VRN is a sock puppet. I just can’t figure out whose.
Most likely candidate… FLYRE ROB.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Could you imagine?
Pretty sure some heads would literally explode. And yes, I mean literally.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
if you guys believe reimers been playing good this year then maybe most leaf fans are as delusional as everyone says
it it was last year theres no way reimer lets in that goal
hes off since coming back from the concussion
am in the only one who sees this???
Man, use the reply button.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Not on the PK, but his ESSV% indicates a good goalie having a touch time outside of 5v5.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
but even 5 on 5, hes not always great
bad rebounds, always on his goal line
and maybe, just MAYBE, hes partly to blame for the bad penalty killing?
He has a 931 even strength save percentage!
Nice to see you’ve paid attention to everything that was said above.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
gets gun
kills self
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
RIP
"I will actually score as many times as Kulemin assists me."
-Mikhail Grabovski
by MapleLeafMole on Jan 23, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
but even 5 on 5, hes not always great
My head fucking hurts. I think I’ve been concussed.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Bookoo is right, our best jousting goalie is definitely Gus.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
No way
He drops his stick at least once a game. It’d be like in A Knight’s Tale where Heath Ledger’s character can’t hold his lance and just gets obliterated. Someone should lash it to his arm.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Yeah fuck stats, let’s just make judgments based on one goal against in one game.
TWEET AT ME BRO
DAAAAA BLOG
Leaf fan for life! (No, really. They gave me a no-trade clause when I was born.)
by FiftyMissionCap on Jan 23, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
one goal?
theres a bad goal against every game he playes
every game eh?
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
They aren’t. However, you need to know how to prove your point. Saying he isn’t great at 5 on 5 is wrong. Skinny proved that.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
Delusional? After 7 years of the likes of Aubin, Raycroft, Toskala, etc. you’d think we’d know terrible goaltending when we see it.
TWEET AT ME BRO
DAAAAA BLOG
Leaf fan for life! (No, really. They gave me a no-trade clause when I was born.)
by FiftyMissionCap on Jan 23, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
don’t make me link the accursed list.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
I dont understand how youre using the same reasoning (i.e. a bad goal or two) to simultaneously put down Reimer and support Goose
Being a Leafs fan makes me bipolar.
Welcome
Thanks for joining. Please use ‘reply’ because it helps keep the conversation flowing.
Also, please use apostrophes and capitals and punctuation because it makes it easier to read comments.
Thanks in advance.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
sorry self destruction...
shoulda used the reply!
Reimer is the Fucking Man
also my favorite part
apocalypticly bad
by pho king awesome on Jan 23, 2012 4:05 PM EST reply actions
Gus vs. Reimer Brings Out the Worse in PPP readers
Personally I think half the arguments on both sides are stupid. One’s ignoring all PK goals to create this imaginary 0.950 walk on water goalie (fact- overall Reimer is below 0.900 sv% – that’s shitty), and the other side is pretending this latest hot streak is the new Monster and that’s how he’ll play for the rest of the year (And ignore that he started letting in soft goals AGAIN in the past 2 games).
This past season, both goalies have gone through stretches of good goaltending.. but the leafs find themselves where they are on the standings, cause generally both have been crap.
How many games have been “stolen” by either goaltenders? 1 or 2 by Reimer? 0 or 1 by Gustavvson?
Basically.. at this point, it doesn’t matter who starts in net.. If Kessel and Lupul don’t score, the team loses.
Basically.. at this point, it doesn’t matter who starts in net.. If Kessel and Lupul don’t score, the team loses.Trade both goalies… who cares.. maybe bring up the new kids from the Marlies.. even Scrivens has a better/similar save% than Reimer/Gustavson..
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
the concensus is we need a trade or something to happen to get us out of this funk. Because when the Leafs are doing badly, it’s best to leave us fans alone. We can be reactionary like a cobra stuck in a dark box. Reaching in is a bad idea.
by Goosemonster on Jan 23, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure you’re grasping how unimportant PKSV% is.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
by Chemmy on Jan 23, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I understand how unimportant it is..
The PK Sv% is too small of a sample size, so you can’t measure a goalie’s performance by it.
So basically, we’re going to take all of Reimers goals that were scored on the PK, and pretend they never happened. And now we can say Reimer is a 0.950 goalie.. although he’s actually 0.899
That’s delusional, that’s messed up logic you find in the comment section of thestar.com, or on “Eyes on the Prize” forum
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
You say you understand this but then you make it clear that you in fact do not.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
BowerPower’s point is that if the leafs take more than 4 penalties than its more advantageous to have Reimer in net. So the PK Sv% is not that important…
But that doesn’t change my points. We’re glorifying a 0.899 goalie…
We’re arguing whose the better goalie when both have sucked, yet we rationalize that the goalie with the lower Sv% is better… this is backwards, illogical.
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
We’re glorifying a 0.899 goalie…
I’m not sure anyone here is voting Reimer for Vezina. We’re not glorifying so much as explaining why he’s .899, why that’s not a great reflection of his play this season or total ability, and why it makes sense to continue playing Reimer, rather than cut and run like with, say, Toskala.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Before I make my point, I’d like to see if you can stipulate to the following facts.
1) At even strength, Reimer has statistically been the better goalie this season.
2) Shorthanded, Gustavsson has statistically been the better goalie this season.
3) Since the New Year, the Maple Leafs have statistically improved their penalty kill
4) Since the New Year, the Maple Leafs have reduced the number of penalties they take per game.
Gebx, do you stipulate that all 4 facts I listed are correct?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
5) Gustavson overall save S% is better
nuff said…
You can twist the numbers how ever you want, but Gustavson has made more saves on more shots, at a higher %.
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
Do you agree that points 1 – 4 are factually true, yes or no.
Let me make my fucking point before you try and refute it.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Of course, they’re true.. but your just cherry picking..
Your picking a specific timeline, and a specific set of data to make your point.
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
I guess he should look at PP svp too? what specific set of data is he cherry picking?
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
I haven’t manipulated any data, and the data I used from 1 and 2 are over the entire season, so I don’t know how you can claim I’ve cherry picked it.
But if 4 is true, then the Lefas spend less time on the penalty kill, which mitigates the effect of 2. (Less time on the PK means less shots which means less goals against both goalies)
And if 3 is true, then it’s LIKELY (not a certainty, but likely) that Reimer’s PK increases going forward, which also mitigates the effect of 2.
Substantially more of the game is played at even strength than on the penalty kill, where according to fact 1 Reimer has been better.
So if the Leafs are taking less penalties, and if the Leafs are improving their penalty kill, they are reducing the amount of time on the penalty kill, thereby increasing the amount of time at even strength, where Reimer is better.
That’s not called “spinning the data”; it’s called “data analysis” and it’s my fucking job.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, we’ve made some – in my opinion, very compelling – arguments as to why #5 isn’t “nuff said.”
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
We’re just spinning the numbers to create a reason why we should support Reimer.
But if you look at the basic numbers, Gustavson is the better choice… a freaking 0.908 goalie whose ranked. 30th?
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
My “spinning numbers” you mean present all data available without resorting to narratives?
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
/joke
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Your post is biased from the start. “James Reimer’s ES Save % has been consistent thoughout his carreer”… he’s played a total of 58 games in the past two years..
Thirdly, as we all know James Reimer’s ES Save Percentage has been consistent throughout his career and currently sits at a .931 for this season.
Gustavsson’s Save % is downplayed in your next paragraph.. he’s “stat” in quotation marks.. cause save % is apparently not good enough to judge a goalie??
has his overall numbers down to a MSM “friendly” .899 so they can point to him being below Gustavsson in the “stats” department.
I love to stay and chat more.. but it’s past 5pm.. going home.. I’ll probably log in later and see if I can continue this conversation!
Changing my "Goat of The Year" player from Armstrong to Kulemin
Your post is biased from the start. "James Reimer’s ES Save % has been consistent thoughout his carreer"… he’s played a total of 58 games in the past two years..
Do you understand what biased means?
I put stat in quotations because yeah, if you look at it Gus has the better “numbers”, but when you feel back that first layer, dig a bit deeper, and and context to those numbers then you come to the same conclusion I that………there was no way it could have been Oswald from the book depository.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Grassy knoll, for sure.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Over 58 games and two halves of a season, Reimer’s managed to put up a .931 SV%.at evens.
Over 90 games and two and a half seasons, Gustavsson’s managed to put up a .909 SV% at evens.
In his last seven games Gustavsson has roughly matched Reimer’s ES SV%.
Based on the data available, which do you think is more likely to keep happening; Reimer maintains a 930 based on 58 games of prior data, or Gustavsson maintains a 930 based on 7 games out of 90?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Why would you assume that I want what’s best for Reimer over what’s best for the Toronto Maple Leafs? Why would you limit yourself to looking at “the basic numbers” when I’ve got a strong argument that there are more relevant numbers you could be looking at?
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
Why would you assume that I want what’s best for Reimer over what’s best for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
You make a good point. I think I would like to change my position on this matter.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Yes, my new position is that Bryzgalov should be the starter for the Leafs. He can be yours, for the right price ($51M and a third round pick).
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I feel like any time we must explain why a goalie has bad numbers, or a forward only has 6 goals, or a defenceman has a horrible +/-, that sometimes we’re trying to find the silver lining. We all do it. I do it all the time.
But…
Bad is bad is bad. We can slice it and dice it all we like, but this is a sport and in the end all that matters is wins. Reimer hasn’t delivered for a while. Does he deserve another chance and all that? Maybe. But if I’m Wilson I’m putting Gus in there. I think he’s been the better goalie.
...
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
by birky on Jan 23, 2012 4:31 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Rask looks like such a psycho in the White House visit vid.
Bleeding Blue and White since '88
Follow me @JoeyFerg for Leafs related info and other ramblings,
Psycho with a fuckin’ .948 ES SVP, .916 PK SVP. Insane in so many ways.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
There’s significant amounts of video evidence to back this statement up.
OPERATION TANK IS A GO. It’s the only explanation for Mike Weber. He’s on a secret mission.
HE WAS OUR PSYCHO but we never had the chance to enjoy him.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Jan 23, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
There’s something wrong with his eyebrows.
Bleeding Blue and White since '88
Follow me @JoeyFerg for Leafs related info and other ramblings,
by Joe Ferguson on Jan 23, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Gustavsson should be in.
But I don’t think you’re crazy or a hater.
Me, I’m just going by some of the big saves he’s making (breakaway), also his play over his last 10-12 games, and frankly I’m sick of watching teams tear apart Reimers glove side. He needs to sort that out with Frank.
Gustavsson is the guy and I hope it stays that way. Loved Reimer’s play down the stretch last year and with Gustavsson up for UFA status it would have been easier for Toronto to have Reimer be the guy this year and Jonus without much negotiating leverage… but more than any of that, I want this team to win and make the playoffs and Gustavsson is the guy to take us there until further notice.
and frankly I’m sick of watching teams tear apart Reimers glove side
But aren’t teams going after Gustavsson’s chicken wing just as frequently?
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Most goals are scored on the glove side high on every goalie. “So and so gets torn apart on his glove side” ignores that EVERYONE gets torn apart on their glove side.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
So what is Reimer doing about it? Besides, you know, going down too early on shots and playing too deep in his net?
I don’t understand your response.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’m saying that Lundquist (or any goalie with betters numbers than Reimer) must be protecting that part of the net better than Reimer.
Also I think Skinny just posted a chart that says most goalies get beat low than high, didn’t he?
No. Look at the percentages.
18% high right
20% high left
9, 11, 9 across the bottom.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
So unless Reimer is as good as Lundqvist he’s bad? I don’t get it.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
I’m saying that if all goalies are facing the same shots up high (as you are suggesting) than clearly the guy with the better save percentage and lower goals against is doing something more effective in stopping those shots.
All things being equal as you are suggesting.
I have no stats that tell me teams are targeting Reimer there, but it sure looks that way from watching the games.
Any deeper of a “study” into this, be my guest… but from watching the games that is my conclusion.
but from watching the games that is my conclusion
Do you watch the Rangers every night, and the Penguins, and…
Not to be blunt, but you don’t want every team every night. You watch the Leafs every night. You focus more on goals Reimer lets in because you care about the Leafs.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
ugh “watch every team every night”
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Last year by distance
2010/11 Leaf Goaltending by shot distance.
By Distance 15<SV%<30ft
James Reimer 0.863
JS Giguere 0.855
Jonas Gustavsson 0.877
Team Average 0.865
League Average 0.879
Best in League 0.927
Reimer was a softer goalie in the 15 to 30ft range last year.
24% of shots faced are from that range – <a href=“http:// ”http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2011/4/25/2132019/another-look-at-leaf-goaltending-this-year#comments" target="_blank">http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2011/4/25/2132019/another-look-at-leaf-goaltending-this-year#comments" >last table
And the sv%s for the other 76 percent of shot locations for those goalies versus the average is?
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
That’s also last year… I think Reimer has been getting hit glove side high a lot more in recent past.
But I’m not making a pie chart for my argument so discard it if you like!
Gus to start today = Perfect decision by Wilson (and Allaire)
Are you guys serious?
I have never posted on here, and barely read the articles because they most of them are spun to delight us Leaf fans. Most of the time, to the point of homerism. Most recent article I remember reading, before this one was the MacArthur being an elite shooter in the leauge because his shooting percentage is this and blah blah blah. If anyone still thinks this, Im sorry to tell you, Mac will never be an elite shooter in this league (and that is fine, because that is not expected from him) Numbers can be manipulated, and that is exactly what 70% of the articles on this site prove. (I mean no disrespect to this site, or the readers. Every team should have a site like this, and I appreciate the work this site does for the Leaf Nation community. If anything it gains exposure to certain players, but most of all makes us all better Leaf Fans, and NHL Fans)
Back on topic, should Reimer start today? No. Ofcourse he needs to get back between the posts and win a few games, if not for Toronto, at least for himself.
Do I agree Gus should start today? Absolutely. Has he been the better goalie as of late? Perhaps, that is debatable. Not through stats, but purely from watching them both play. But that is not the reason why I would have started him today.
I can almost guarantee that Reminer will start tomorrow in the 2nd half of the home and home against these lowly Islanders. And that is why Gus is starting today. Win or lose, Reimer is starting tomorrow, even if Gus posts another shutout today.
Reimers big chance to take back (in my opinion) his position will be tomorrow. I still love this kid, and really hope he can have a big second half season. Maybe the all star break will be perfect for him to regroup and ‘start over’.
The decision to start Gus today was perfect. No one should be complaining, expect those that forgot about the home and home. Reimer will play tomorrow. Lets hope the team plays good in front of him, we score a couple goals, and stay away from the penalty box.
and barely read the articles because they most of them are spun to delight us Leaf fans.
ha
The decision to start Gus today was perfect. No one should be complaining, expect those that forgot about the home and home.
Gus played both B2B last week for BUF-NYR
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
by SkinnyFish on Jan 23, 2012 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And they lost, which is exactly why I stated the above. Thanks for pointing that out for the ones who needed some direction.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Gus played both B2B last week for BUF-NYR
PS – Didn’t know that constituted a home and home.
I can explain to you what a home and home is, if you want.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
The difference meaning what, exactly?
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmmm I don’t know. Maybe you play THE SAME TEAM in less than 24 hours, with the same shooters and the same Team tendencies?
I don’t know if that reply was a joke gone bad, or not.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
The difference meaning what, exactly?
With a huge emphasis on “the same team”. Let me know if you need some more explanation.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Please do. I need something to occupy my mind before the game starts.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Jan 23, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
cant you make an argument that its better for the same goalie to play both games in a home and home??
because its the “same team, with the same shooters and same team tendencies”??
League-wide a teams` record is worse in the second game of a back to back. `
And there are such a small number of situations where the same two teams play on consecutive nights that I doubt there`s any meaningful correlation between the two.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
How is a teams record worse when they are BOTH playing back to back?
Same two teams, on consecutive nights is the only stat you should look at.
#manipulatingstats
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
Gustavsson played both games of a home and home (albeit 3 days apart) against Buffalo two weeks ago. I believe it was the same Buffalo Sabres team both times. Might have to do some checking to make sure it wasn’t some other Buffalo Sabres team.
Let me know if you need some more explanation for whatever point your attempting to make here, because if it’s logic when it comes to understanding Ron Wilson coaching decisions regarding starting goaltenders in back to back, or home and home situations, you so far have it wrong.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
hahahaha
I have never posted on here, and barely read the articles because they most of them are spun to delight us Leaf fans. Most of the time, to the point of homerism.
“I don’t read anything here but I know it’s all homerism” – a dummy
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Please do. I need something to occupy my mind before the game starts.
Google it. You’ve already proved lots to me.
cant you make an argument that its better for the same goalie to play both games in a home and home??
because its the "same team, with the same shooters and same team tendencies"??
Good question. The shooters on the opposing team all concentrate on scoring a specific way. Now change the goalie, and the whole team has to change its focus. 1 position change, changes the other teams tactics.
(albeit 3 days apart)
Enough said.
This is fun though, Im sure you know a lot more than Wilson though. You must have been very upset when he resigned. Did you apply for the job? You obviously know more about the team, which goalie has been preparing better for games throughout practice, and the overall plan. Right?
Like I said, I can guarantee you Reimer will play tomorrow, (the 2nd half of a home in home, in less than 24 hours) and he will have his chance to take back his starting position then. And that is exactly why Gus starts today. Let me know if that made sense? Because I just explained the logic I think Wilson and Allaire, (apparently you don’t think Allaire pulls some strings here, which I know he does) is going with.
Enjoy the game, and enjoy watching Reimer tomorrow. Think of me when he is named the starter after tomorrows light practice on Long Island :)
even if gustavsson stands on his head for a shutout?
what if he reacts well to their tactics?? why change goalies??
1) Because he played in a back2back a week ago and lost them both
2) Because goalies rarely play in both games of a home and home in consecutive nights
3) Because Reimer needs to get back goal
4) Because it will still force the shooters to change whatever they were doing
5) Because it’s pretty much already confirmed (can’t source it)
Again, think of me when Gus is the 2nd goalie off the ice tomorrow on Long Island.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
Are you saying Wilson and Allaire rely on a coin to name their starters?
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Are you saying that you can predict starting goaltenders any more reliably that I can the outcome of a coin toss?
Let’s back up shall we?
It’s the morning on January 13th and Ron Wilson needs to pick a starter. Gustavsson just shutout the Sabres 3 days earlier and neither team has played a game since. By your logic “The shooters on the opposing team all concentrate on scoring a specific way. Now change the goalie, and the whole team has to change its focus. 1 position change, changes the other teams tactics.” the Sabres will have shifted tactics in order to be prepared for, and to crack Gustavsson, so you would start Reimer. Wilson started Gus.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Regardless of your reply, you're just going to move the goalposts and then say something which will go nicely with this picture.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Welp, there you have it folks. Shut the blog down. Shut every blog down. None of us here are team employees, or even lowly beat writers who follow the team from game to game. No sense in voicing an opinion, taking a guess, or inferring anything since we can’t possible know what’s going on in Wilson’s head. We had a good run.
RIP PPP
2008 – January 23, 2012
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Says the disgruntled Wilson fan. Don’t worry, you will be a head coach soon!!
Keep up the good work, and ‘valid’ points.
by injury prone on Jan 23, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Let me try to understand your logic:
An entire post is dedicated to saying Ron Wilson is wrong in how he uses his goalies and Skinny is a Ron Wilson fan? Don’t eat any more paste bud.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Skinny loves Ronnnnnnnn… Skinny loves Ronnnnnnnn… Ron loves Gusssssss…. Ron loves Gusssssss…. ergo mutatis factotum Skinny loves Gussssss….
Oi. Jesus.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
As far as I can tell, this all really boils down to how much people believe in simple uncontrollable variance.
In camp A, you believe that short-term swings are unavoidable and more or less meaningless (i.e. not indicative of what will happen in the near or distant future. Therefore, teams should look at a sample large enough to give a good assessment of talent and play the talented guy. Based on their play over the last year and a half, that is Reimer.
In camp B, you believe that short-term swings are meaningful and predictive, so teams should play whoever is playing best right now. Based on his results over the last few weeks, that is probably Gustavsson.
The debates about whether ES Sv% is the best measure of talent in the long term or the short term, about whether the overall stats are skewed by a change in PK system coinciding with a change in goaltender, and all of the rest of it are relevant but peripheral. At the root of it, either you believe more in the guy who has played well over the last week or two or you believe more in the guy who has played well over his career.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Sports among the unwashed masses has always been about “what have you done for me lately?”.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Dude. I get your point, but can we stop using words like “career” – which people tend to think means a few full seasons at the least. i.e. Reimer’s 38 games last year + 17 this don’t make much of a career. Ditto, but only slightly better for Gus.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve already replied more times than I wanted to.
This site has a reputation (which is the reason why I never posted on here, and I think actually breaks my ‘social media agreement’ code of conduct) as a very biased forum and it is actually true!
I guess I just wanted to shed some light since I am closer to the organization than your ‘average’ fan. And probably have more access than 97% of the posters on here.
I explained the reasoning, you just like to play hard ball I guess.
Let me try to understand your logic:
An entire post is dedicated to saying Ron Wilson is wrong in how he uses his goalies and Skinny is a Ron Wilson fan? Don’t eat any more paste bud.
You actually failed to understand any type of logic. An entire post was dedicated indicating why Gus was correctly named the starter. As for calling Skinny a Wilson fan, not much sarcasm on this site, eh?
Before I get in anymore trouble. This will be my last post.
See you’ve backed yourself into a corner here.
You can’t possibly prove that statement without breaking this ‘social media agreement’ you speak of.
And you won’t convince anyone here that you are as plugged in as you claim to be without giving more information.
So unless you are actually Colby Armstrong and that’s a ridiculously clever username, you’ve effectively checkmated yourself.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
by clrkaitken on Jan 23, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This site has a reputation (which is the reason why I never posted on here, and I think actually breaks my ‘social media agreement’ code of conduct) as a very biased forum and it is actually true!
Yeah, it’s a TML fan blog. Way to figure that one out on your own. If you’re hearing this “reputation” from “team officials”, it’s because we told them to fuck off when they wanted to partner up with us, but asked that we change the blog’s name. So basically, fuck ‘em if they can’t take a joke.
You actually failed to understand any type of logic. An entire post was dedicated indicating why Gus was correctly named the starter.What were you doing instead of attending school the day they taught reading comprehension?
As for calling Skinny a Wilson fan, not much sarcasm on this site, eh?Not many failed attempts at sarcasm on this site, no.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
I guess I just wanted to shed some light since I am closer to the organization than your ‘average’ fan. And probably have more access than 97% of the posters on here.
haha I skated at the ACC Wednesday night. I’m closer to the organization than 99% of Leafs fans.
I met Phaneuf, MacArthur, Aulie, and Grabovski at the Underground last year after they played in Detroit. Again, I’m closer to the organization than 99% of the team.
I’d love to hear your proof. Feel free to e-mail me, I’ll keep it a secret but until then I’ll be dubious.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
More context (?)
Reading through all these comments I’ve noticed that a lot of people think that Reimer has not looked the same since returning from concussion. So I thought I would look into it a bit more by comparing Reimer’s numbers pre- and post- concussion. Remember that James played in 5 and change games before the concussion and 11 games and change afterwards
Pre- EV%94.7
Post- EV%91.6
Pre- PK%80.8
Post- PK%75.7
Note: I didn’t take out shots against for EV% when the Leafs were on the Powerplay. I think their small enough not to have a huge effect.
To me those seem like a pretty drastic difference, and I think a concussion is a significant enough of an event for this separation to be “valid”.
Personally, I still want to see Reimer tomorrow despite these numbers.
Thoughts?
2011 National Champs in Men's Basketball
FIRE DeLEONE
Eat a bagel (like a mumu)
Superbowl: Hoping for the meteor
1967: Embrace it
by derbyguy on Jan 23, 2012 8:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Still better than Gustavsson’s overall numbers. Also post numbers are skewed due to getting pulled in Florida. What are his numbers post-noggin whacking without the FLA game?
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Or that 13 game streak to start the… oh forget it.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you for understanding that stats can be used to argue both sides instead of just being explained away by magic and manipulation.
It’s an interesting split and I’m certainly willing to buy an argument that the reason Reimer isn’t playing right now is that the team doesn’t think he’s ready to handle the workload just yet. Unfortunately, such a thing can’t be proven unless the team comes out and says something to that effect. So if you’re trying to figure out why Gustavsson starts over Reimer, and you have no other information to lead you to believe that both guys are ready to play, you have to look at the stats and realize that you’re better off playing the guy with the better stats, even if his stats including his most recent period (coming back from a major injury, no less) are better than those of the other guy.
I’m willing to accept an argument other than what the stats are showing me, but I need a logical explanation of why what the stats are telling me isn’t correct, and dismissing my stats as manipulation or meaningless because of sample size out of hand doesn’t qualify.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
DISREGARD MY EV% NUMBERS
Fuck me, this is embarrassing. Speaking of numbers “manipulation”, I screwed up my math royally.
So yea…new EV% numbers tell a completely different story. Reimer should be starting.
Pre- EV% 93.2
Post- EV% 92.7
My PK% numbers are good.
I know I don’t comment here very often, but I promise I usually don’t make this kind of mistake. So please don’t anchor some bad math bias on me. :)
2011 National Champs in Men's Basketball
FIRE DeLEONE
Eat a bagel (like a mumu)
Superbowl: Hoping for the meteor
1967: Embrace it
Long note above to Skinny and Bower
Hope it’s reasonably clear
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Jan 23, 2012 9:18 PM EST reply actions
Boy, after reading this thread, I would hate to see this place once the “Gus backers” get on here after last night’s game.
/nervouslaughter
by gettingcozywithsarkozy on Jan 24, 2012 8:55 AM EST reply actions
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