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PPP's Top 25 Under 25 - #8 Matt Frattin

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We've reached a point in the Countdown where background information on the player isn't required at the same level as before. The top 8 should all be pretty familiar to everyone reading these final profiles. The players that are left are all players that have been Maple Leafs at some point this season; they're either still with the club or back with the Marlies trying to push their way back to the big leagues.

So with only players left that have demonstrated that they are NHL calibre players, it's about separating actual ability from potential ability. Who of the players remaining has the highest potential ceiling as a player? Who has the highest chance of reaching their peak potential? Which players are young enough that they have time to cash in on that potential?

With those questions in mind, it may not come as a shock that Frattin occupies the #8 position in our countdown. Coming into this season, Frattin was one of just two players remaining to have never played in the NHL but is the third-oldest of our remaining players. Compared to the remaining forwards on this list Frattin also lacks the potential to be a top-end guy. I don't project Frattin ever being the type of guy that a team can count on as a top-six forward.

He projects more into the type of role he was being used in during his stay with the Maple Leafs; a two-way player who can provide an offensive spark when called upon.

Star-divide

Matt Frattin

#39 / Right Wing / Toronto Maple Leafs

6-0

200

Mar 03, 1988

JP Nikota PPP Chemmy SkinnyFish birky PFACNF clrkaitken
6 7 8 9 8 7 7

Frattin is blessed with the physical tools to be an effective NHLer. He has the size, strength and skating to play in the NHL. And he certainly has the offensive skills to be successful; quality of competition aside, you don't score 36 goals in 44 games in the NCAA by accident.

What Frattin has struggled with in his first professional season is adjusting to playing against the very best defenders in the world where 9 times out of 10 having the speed to go around the outside of the defender simply isn't enough. Honestly Frattin's first stay with the Maple Leafs reminded me a little bit of Viktor Stalberg. Both players clearly had the physical tools to compete in the NHL (Frattin doesn't have that same top speed to whip past defenders that Stalberg did but Frattin is also more capable of playing the physical game) but just needed to figure out what was necessary to beat NHL defenders.

Shortly after the New Year, the Leafs assigned Frattin to the Toronto Marlies for a second time. His first trip was brief; he scored 3 points in three games and was recalled due to injuries. With the Maple Leaf forwards currently healthy and Frattin being one of the few not subject to waivers, he was a logical candidate for assignment. Being given an opportunity to play on one of the top lines, Frattin has six points in 9 games in his current stint in the AHL.

Watching him, you get the sense that this is a player just trying to put all of his talents together. At the AHL level, the first thing you notice is his speed; in a league populated by guys who have all the tools to be an NHLer except for footspeed, his ability to accelerate away from the other players gives him a real chance to succeed. Right now he's a player who just needs the confidence to know that he can beat goalies at this level; he's a player who can generate scoring opportunities for himself and others, but just can't find the back of the net with consistency at the moment.

The rankings reflected Frattin's position on the Top 25 list; The difference between his rankings (between 6 and 9) and those of #9 Jesse Blacker (between 9 and 12) show that there was a cut-off point, where one tier of players was separated from the rest. Frattin serves as our gatekeeper for the upper tier of Leaf players under the age of 25.

SkinnyFish offers up some thoughts on Frattin's future:

A fourth round pick of the Leafs in 2007, expectations for him should have never been all that high...and then he went bananas and became a Hobey Baker finalist. Suddenly the weight of the world was placed on his shoulders to be a player that frankly he is not, and part of that blame falls on Ron Wilson and Brian Burke. Instead of nipping the crazy expectations placed upon him in the bud, they gave him a spot on the Leafs right out of training camp when he really should have been spending a full season with the Marlies. Is Matt Frattin the 2nd line power forward extraordinaire he was labeled as supposedly being? No. What he is though is a hard-nosed tank of a player who'll have a home on the Leafs' grind line of the future;

<- Previous - #9 Jesse Blacker
Next - #7 Cody Franson ->

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Can’t argue with this ranking – #8 is right inline where most of us regulars had him.

by Dr_Furious on Jan 30, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

FWIW, Rick Dudley was on the Fan last night and said he thought Frattin was going to be one heck of an NHL player. Also mentioned the Leafs have one of the top prospect pools in the NHL.

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by birky on Jan 30, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Probably true. It lacks the elite, marquee, league-dominant talent, but have a ton of top 6 / top 4 players in Colborne, Kadri, Blacker, Holzer, Franson, Gardiner – moreso if you want to add Frattin, McKegg, and Percy. Not sure how many other systems could really say they have that.

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by Bower Power on Jan 30, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Tough to argue the Leafs don’t have the deepest organization defensive depth in the NHL:

Phaneuf
Gunnarsson
Liles
Gardiner
Franson
Komisarek
Schenn
Holzer
Blacker
Percy
Gysbers

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by birky on Jan 30, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Mikus could still be considered a possibility for NHL time but is obviously still not as close as these guys.

by schennsational on Jan 30, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Birky left out Aulie, too.

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by clrkaitken on Jan 30, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I knew I forgot someone.

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by birky on Jan 30, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Not surprising. I’d like to forget Aulie too.

by Jon K. on Jan 30, 2012 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

And four good looking goaltending prospects in Scrivens, Owuya, Rynnas, and Sparks (in addition to the young and talented Reimer). Compared to, say, Tampa, who’s got “Tokarski” and that’s pretty much it.

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by Bower Power on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Frattin and Ross

I think if everything pans out with Frattin and Rad Boss the Leafs will have a very very nice 3rd line. Both of these kids seem to be pretty responsible defensively and have the ability to chip in from time to time on offense. They also both play a gritty physical game. Exciting to think about it, that line would be a fan favorite. THE STRAIGHT JACKET LINE

by schennsational on Jan 30, 2012 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

Can we slot Kenny Ryan in as the center on that third line?

by Peter Lynn on Jan 30, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

If he can make it out of the ECHL, sure

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by leafer1984 on Jan 30, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he’s down in the ECHL mostly because he’s still young and can get more playing time there and thus develop more than in the AHL, no?

by Peter Lynn on Jan 30, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

pretty much… he can’t exactly get much ice time behind Colborne Zigo etc. IIRC he was getitng like 13 minutes a night while playing on the wing. Doesn’t exactly scream “good development”

by WizardofNaz on Jan 30, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

IIRC Frattin was actually playing relatively sheltered minutes and not doing great defensively while on the Leafs.

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by BCapp on Jan 30, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

From what I heard, no two people can agree on how good Frattin is defensively, but everyone seems to have a strong opinion.

In the court of public opinion, Steve Simmons is Lionel Hutz.

by The Bag on Jan 30, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

No, he did great, actually. A +2 overall. And while he had some mistakes early on, his last 20 games with the Leafs, he was a +7, and only had two minus nights.

I think their problem was that the guy had really obvious scoring chops – speed, power, shot, some moves – but was only getting 10 minutes a night, and usually on the checking line. Best if he went down, worked on scoring a bit more, ironed out his game, and waited for a trade – or maybe next year.

But for a rookie, straight out of college, to be on track for 10-12 goals, even with bad puck luck, playing only 12 minutes a night, 3rd and 4th lines, and no serious PP time… that’s not a lifetime Bottom 6 guy. That’s a 20-30 goal man, warming up.

IMHO.

I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.

by not norm ullman on Jan 30, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree

The guy has the tools to do more but there’s not room for him right now. He needs more polish but the good news is that if he doesn’t hit his ceiling he still looks like an NHLer.

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by PPP on Jan 30, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Is he bat shit Crazy? That should be a requirement. Honestly i was thinking maybe McKegg would fit in nicely because i think he will be a fringe top 6 or good top 9 player that could add good deoth scoring in a third line role.. Plus his face would be priceless after the other two blow someone up.

by schennsational on Jan 30, 2012 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

The other guy I was thinking of to center this line is Sam Carrick. I can’t say I’ve seem him play, but Hockey’s Future says things about him like “fearless” and “character forward with pest ability” and “very willing to drop the gloves, with any size of fighter.”

by Peter Lynn on Jan 30, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Read a great article on him. Stan Butler, Brampton’s coach, LOVES him

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by leafer1984 on Jan 30, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I read that one too. Says very good things about him.

I like that we have a bunch of people who can possibly slot into that 3rd line one day. Biggs is another option. However we are still lacking those top end players in the system.

D’Amigo, Mueller, Ryan, Frattin, Rad Boss, Biggs, Carrick,

by WizardofNaz on Jan 30, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Burke and co are hoping Biggs finds a scoring tough and become a top 6 power forward. Not that I think thats likely.

by Goosemonster on Jan 30, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope Mckegg can be a 2C, I know we were all a bit worried when he started slowly in Erie but 11-11-22 in 11 games, yeesh

by Dr_Furious on Jan 30, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Wanna try that again?

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by CanadianMaple09 on Jan 30, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly where I ranked Frattin

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by Frag on Jan 30, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions  

Not Top 6?

I think it’s a real mistake to not see this guy as a potential Top 6 winger.

The easiest comparison is with our present Top 6 winger, goes by name of Kulemin.

But Frattin is: a) A better skater. b) He hits a lot harder. c) His shot is much better. d) His offensive creativity is higher.

Age-wise, a year and a half’s difference, and coming out of college hockey, it always takes some time. But give Frattin another season and a half, and straight up, I’d take him over Kulemin.

Right now, just busy learning a lot. How much he can go to the front of the net, and when, a lot of defensive positioning.

But I’d say he could easily check in with 20 goals next year, and have an upside around 30, playing with power, in the years to come. I’d predict if the Leafs deal a winger, it’s because they know they have Frattin.

I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.

by not norm ullman on Jan 30, 2012 5:26 PM EST reply actions  

But Frattin is: a) A better skater. b) He hits a lot harder. c) His shot is much better. d) His offensive creativity is higher.

Sorry, to who, Kulemen? If so, I’ll take Kulemin who is right now better than him hands down, has more NHL playing time and is 2yrs younger. I think they are comparable players in a lot of ways but anyway you look at it Kulemin is the better choice if you ever had to choose between the two. The newness of a player shouldn’t cloud your judgement.

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by BlueBuds on Jan 30, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Kulemin’s the one who’s two years older.

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by not norm ullman on Jan 30, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha I got it backwards… I thought Kulemin was the younger of the two.

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by BlueBuds on Jan 30, 2012 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I think a lot of things need to go right for this to become reality. I think he’s more likely to become a player who drives top lines around the league crazy with his aggressiveness and speed rather than his goal scoring ability.

As for his offensive creativity, his MO seems to be “skate really fast outside the defender, deliver weak shot”.

s •

by sportsfan2 on Jan 30, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Here’s the only problem with that line of thinking.

Frattin didn’t start in the NHL until he was 23.

Let’s assume he came up and played the last 30 games and put up another 10 points. That would give him around 20 points in 70 games.

Kulemin’s rookie season, as a 22 year old, he scored 31 points in 73 games.
As a 23 year old, he had 36 points in 78 games.
Last year as a 24 year old he had 30 goals and 57 points.
Even in a down year compared to his last year, he’s already got 20 points in 49 games. He should at least match his rookie production and will probably finish around 35- 40 points.

I don’t necessarily feel that 20 goals is out of reach for Frattin. But he doesn’t have the luxury of time to develop. Kulemin was already in his 3rd season, so he’d had that time to develop as a player. Frattin’s played half of a season.

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by clrkaitken on Jan 30, 2012 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Understood. I just am not convinced that line of reasoning holds with college players, most of whom necessarily start later in the NHL. Thus, their 20 and 21 year old seasons can never show stats as good, right?

But understood that breaking in at 23 pretty much limits your development time, and “stardom” is pretty much forever out.

But try tackling it this way and see what you think. Frattin seems to me to have been easily within reach of a 15 goal first season. He started slowly, and was snake-bit as hell. He’s only getting 12 minutes a night, little/no PP time. But a post or two his way, and then playing the second half, he’d have a shot at it.

Assuming he learned a few things this year, and he gets some more ice-time next year, maybe even some PP time, what would you estimate next year goal-wise? I’d be putting money down that 15 was his likely low, 20 was odds-on, and maybe higher.

After that, he’ll have still only have had 1.5 to 2 seasons in the league, so my guess is that while he doesn’t go on to score 40 or 50 – like the true stars – he’s within reach of 30.

I guess I’m not sure I see him as limited to 20 a year. Looks to me like he’s got more chops that that.

Anyhoo…. we’ll see, I guess.

I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.

by not norm ullman on Jan 30, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

He needs to start shooting a bit more frequently for any real improvement in goal-scoring to take place. Not surprisingly, Kulemin’s 30 goal season was accompanied by a 20% increase in shots from his 23 year old season (and better linemates, and better luck, etc).

If Frattin is going to score 30 goals in a season, a lot of stars will have to align

s •

by sportsfan2 on Jan 30, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

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by Nifty Mittens on Jan 30, 2012 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

That's where I got his nickname

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by Frag on Jan 30, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Just found this one


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=VgUADDm-pX0

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by Kevin Costner on Feb 3, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve been more negative about Frattin than most people here, probably has more to do with Wilson and Burkes praise for a guy who I really think should have started the season in the A, but he does have some moves and looks like he might turn into a pretty solid 3rd liner. I think the comparisons to Stalberg are a little lofty considering Stalberg might score 20-25 goals in either this season or the next few. I would be pretty surprised if Frattin ever scores 20 in the NHL

by jd90 on Jan 30, 2012 9:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

If you put Frattin in Chicago’s top 6, I’m sure he could his 20-25 easy at that point in his career

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by happiergilmore on Jan 30, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Its easy to come up with excuses, but Frattin was in this teams top 6 for a number of games and was basically invisible. Would Chicago trade Stalberg for Frattin straight up? Or with even a mid round pick? Not a chance. Not that the two are in any way connected, I just found the comparison a little strange.

by jd90 on Jan 30, 2012 10:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think you’re wrong. I’d take Frattin. And his college numbers back that up.

We’ll see next year.

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by not norm ullman on Jan 30, 2012 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I like you more and more every day.

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by happiergilmore on Jan 30, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

College numbers are fine but I’m not really sure how they are going to translate to the NHL. Its just my opinion but he really wasn’t very good with the Leafs. There were entire games where I wouldn’t even notice he was out there. Not to mention the fact that he’s 24, not exactly a young rookie struggling. I don’t dislike him, but if I did my rankings there is no way he makes my top 10. He’ll probably turn into a 3rd/4th line plug with better than plug scoring ability. I would rather you guys be right and have him turn into a 20 goal power forward, but I really don’t see it

by jd90 on Jan 30, 2012 11:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He turned 24 like 2 weeks ago.. And obviously you don’t know much about what a “rookie” is because coming from the NCAA, he isn’t used to playing the pro schedule or the pro travel. NCAA is about half the amount of games as the NHL and you’re not playing 3 games in 5 nights at least twice a month. The pro game takes some getting used to.

And Frattin has looked better this year than Stalberg did his rookie year.

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Can you honestly say Stalberg was at the forefront of the Leafs attack every game his rookie year? Not a chance.

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

You can’t say that A > B because B isn’t something when A wasn’t that something either. Their numbers are almost identical and if Frattin had some bounces go his way, he’s easily at 9-5-14 pts through 37 games.

9-5-14 pts was Stalberg through 40 games in his rookie season.

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I know preseason doesn’t matter, but didn’t Stalberg lead the team in scoring through the preseason? And IIRC he got clocked by Volchenkov a few games into the season and was concussed. I’d say that’s a hell of a lot better of a reason for those types of numbers than this made up “bad puck luck” which really just means dude isn’t scoring.

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 12:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

It’s not even puck luck he had a bunch of shots that rang solid iron

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Ok man I get it, a lot of people here like Frattin. I still think most people here would do Stalberg for Frattin in a heartbeat. I still think he picked a hell of a number. Him and John Mitchell probably have very similar ceilings. But I guess we’ll see in a year or two

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 12:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Not a chance would I make this deal.

well, that escalated quickly

by aelanK on Jan 31, 2012 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Do you really think Stalberg out performs Frattin if they’re put in the same situation with the same ice time?

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I sure do. He is bigger, faster and more skilled than Frattin. But clearly that one good year in college means Frattin is going to become a top line player for the Leafs.

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 1:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Actually Frattin had a pretty decent Jr. season. 19 pts in 24 games is not bad.

The fact that he was able to score 36 goals in 44 games in any year is astounding

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 1:06 AM EST up reply actions  

haha ok, you don’t like Frattin but don’t say crazy things like him and John Mitchell have similar ceilings.

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by PPP on Jan 31, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

That was probably too harsh. Its not that I don’t like him, I just see people claiming he’ll score 20-30 goals and I can’t figure out what it is that they see. I really think he’ll end up being more of a 10-12 goal guy. Which isn’t bad for a 4th rounder

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 1:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, people are optimistic. He has the tools but like you’ve said, that’s a long way from putting it all together. Not to mention, he likely won’t get the necessary opportunities.

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by PPP on Jan 31, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

At the forefront of the attack every game? He didn’t score for like 20 games. Holy fuck if that is the forefront of this teams attack, there isn’t a chance in hell of making the playoffs. Colton Orr provided more offense early on than Frattin. He’s just another lower rung prospect that seems to have gotten some sort of weird fan club. Dude will probably never score 20 in a season

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 12:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I wish we could star comments for use later ;)

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by PPP on Jan 31, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

What the hell are you talking about? I never said Frattin was. Read my next comment, dear god

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh wow. My bad man, I probably shoulda read that last part

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 1:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I’m going to go ahead and assume that this helps Stalberg out quite a bit:

24.68% EV 88 KANE,PATRICK – 25 STALBERG,VIKTOR – 19 TOEWS,JONATHAN
11.69% EV 81 HOSSA,MARIAN – 25 STALBERG,VIKTOR – 19 TOEWS,JONATHAN
9.82% EV 15 BRUNETTE,ANDREW – 25 STALBERG,VIKTOR – 19 TOEWS,JONATHAN
5.79% EV 10 SHARP,PATRICK – 25 STALBERG,VIKTOR – 19 TOEWS,JONATHAN

Those are the combos he most spends his ice-time with in Chicago.

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by PPP on Jan 31, 2012 1:03 AM EST up reply actions  

4Lsquared I guess…

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by happiergilmore on Jan 31, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t realize that’s how much he has been playing with those guys. He’s played an awful lot with Toews.

by jd90 on Jan 31, 2012 5:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He didn’t start with them but from what I gather, he was doing REALLY poorly and then they decided to try him out and he’s flourished.

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by PPP on Jan 31, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Stalberg has rounded out nice and yes, probably benefits from playing with Toews/Hossa /Kane a ton but you can’t deny that he is on pace for 25 goals-55 points.

I think the issue is would you say that Stalberg was a better player than Frattin two years ago – I don’t think so.

by Dr_Furious on Feb 1, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

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PPP Salary cap Challenge - samspade
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How Much Should You Spend On A Top 4 D?
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PPP Salary Cap Challenge - Self Destructive Zones
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The Fancystats Exchange, Part 1
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PPP Salary Cap Challenge-BCapp #2

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