What happens now?
Two years ago, after a crushing loss to the Vancouver Canucks, many Leaf fans awoke to a Darren Dreger tweet suggesting big moves were in store for their beloved hockey club that day. By the time the dust had settled, the Leafs had shipped out spare parts for Dion Phaneuf, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, and others. Last night I saw several folks on twitter reference that day while watching the Leafs get picked apart defensively (yet again).
I don't get the feeling we'll see the Leafs make a big trade this year. The one player we know Burke wanted was James van Riemsdyk; a player no longer available as Philadelphia has filled its need on the blue-line for the short term. On top of that, it's a very limited market and there are contending teams willing to give up more to get the guy they want. Teams such as Columbus want good young pieces like Jake Gardiner and Nazem Kadri and I'm not sure that's the type of deal Burke wants to make.
As Michael Langlois from Vintage Leaf Memories writes:
But I would be shocked, knocked off my feet, whatever phrase comes to mind, to even think that we could acquire the best forward Anaheim has, or the best player Columbus has ever had, unless we give back something that is going to hurt. So I say again: If I’m Howson, or I am Murray, any talk involving my "best guys" means I absolutely insist on getting Gardiner back in the deal, and that’s just the beginning of the package.
I want the Leafs to make a splash as much as the next guy, but if you sit down and think about it, are the Leafs one player away from being significantly better? I could see the Leafs adding Rick Nash or whoever and still miss the playoffs next season due to poor coaching, goaltending, and team defense. Perhaps it's best if the Leafs do nothing.
Links after the jump...
Quick hits from MLHS
MarliesHQ with the recap
Another one from Jeff at MarliesHQ
New stuff from David Johnson at Hockey Analysis
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Really just hit the nail on the head dude.
Imagine burning a bunch of picks and young guys get back ‘’Star Guy’’ and still miss the dance.
Forget it, let’s wait till Suter and other’s are possible UFA’s
I don’t feel that Ron Wilson has had the most talented group to work with. But he does this year and we shouldn’t be seeing such awful defensive play at this point in the season. I can’t see him returning in any way next year unless they go on an amazing run to end the season. We’re still seeing the same old issues that we were two years ago despite a far more experienced roster.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
Zettler should be gone too since he is responsible for defence.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
I’d be willing to bet that the situation is basically this:
Leafs make playoffs – Wilson is back next year.
Leafs don’t make playoffs – Wilson is let go at the end of the year.
Regardless of what people here think ought to happen, I think Burke is loyal to Wilson, and I don’t think internally that the Leafs view themselves as being much better than a low playoff seed (which they aren’t).
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Defensive Zone Coverage
Is just terrible – I was watching last night and it was like a bunch of little-leaguers out there. The coaching staff is not committed to defensive details, the wingers are not covering the points because they are down low trying to win puck battles that we ALWAYS seem to lose, and we can’t break out of our zone to save our lives.
@muellercleez
by Muellercleez on Feb 19, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah
And I don’t know what happened to Reimer, but since his concussion-like symptoms which kept him out, he’s been in and out in terms of confidence and form.
Gustavsson seems like he can only be effective when he’s given the ball for a length of time and can play games in a string. When he’s in to spell the other goalie or in a tandem situation, sketch.
Fuck Nash – we need a #1 goalie and a #1 defenseman. I say this with all seriousness, drive a dump truck of cash up to Suter’s door on July 1. Make RFA offer sheets to Rask (if nothing more than to throw off the Bruins’ salary structure) and Cory Schneider, see if one of them shakes loose.
@muellercleez
by Muellercleez on Feb 19, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think the talent is there on defense. The issues as of late are not just on the defenseman. It’s the entire team approach to playing defense – the forwards don’t want to contribute. Mix that with some poor defensive play and terrible goaltending and TA DA.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
I don’t think the talent is there at all. Liles appears, by the stats, to be one of the worst defencemen in the league. Komisarek has been lousy for 2.5 years now. Franson has some offensive skills, but routinely makes boneheaded plays in the defensive zone. Aulie is terrible. Schenn showed some improvement last year, but has looked slow and out of place this year.
That leaves us with Phaneuf, who’s been great, Gunnarsson, who’s been great, and Gardiner, who’s been much better than anyone would have expected but still has a lot of learning to do. The Leafs defence is bad, and that’s on Burke, who doesn’t seem to recognise it.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Stats say Liles is one of the worst in the league?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Feb 19, 2012 12:58 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I’ve seen a few articles about defencemen that have Liles as being one of the worst performing defenders in the NHL. He’s great on the powerplay, but he’s terrible in the defensive zone. Was on Colorado, continues to be on Toronto.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
what articles? His corsi, fenwick, SA/60 totals do not suggest he’s one of the worst in the league. Sounds a lot like bias because you don’t like his contract extension.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
Nah, his bias exists because of that time when Liles wouldn’t give him change for a dollar.
And because he believes that only douchebags eat Hot Pockets.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can’t find it now, but Gabe wrote a piece about the Avalanche in the playoffs a couple years ago that looked at things like scoring chances, and Liles came off looking dreadful. I’ve seen other things too, but I can’t remember where they are off the top of my head.
I’m exaggerating when I say “worst in the league” but he is honestly pretty bad defensively and as soon as this team is rid of Komisarek, people are going to start talking about the Liles contract in exactly the same way.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but liles was brought in for an entirely different reason than Komi. Had we paid him 3.75 to come in and be our shutdown guy, then I’d agree. But Liles is really here to help the PP, and not be our PK/Top 4 guy.
by JohnerstonRex on Feb 19, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think he might mean defensively?
He’s at .5 points per game.
His zone starts are about even.
He faces weak competition, and while he does lose the possession battle, it’s not by much (CorsiOn -1.85, pretty much even). That actually gives him a positive score relative to the rest of the team, because our team’s overall possession numbers are pretty bad.
Yeah, I don’t see which stats paint Liles as one of the worst in the league, unless maybe we are looking specifically at numbers since he returned from injury? I mean, he’s not great defensively, but for .5 points per game thats an okay deal.
I liked Liles before his injury. He hasn’t been the same offensively since.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Liles hasn’t looked good post-concussion.
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
He had 17 points in 34 games pre-injury.
He has 1 point in 9 games post injury.
Link
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I feel we have defense, and some potenially good goalies. But to me there’s one problems: #WeveGotWilson
by AsburyJukes75 on Feb 19, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Trade for Mike Babcock.
I will stand beside him with an axe! @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Feb 19, 2012 10:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’d prefer Dave Tippett.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
doesn’t Tippett play a very defense-oriented style of game? I know we want to fix some of our defensive problems, but bringing in a coach with a very defensive focused system a la Trotz would require another couple years of rebuild since we clearly do not have the players to play that system
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I believe any player can be taught to play responsible defensively, especially if they have speed and quickness like a lot of the Leafs players have. It’s all about positioning. Tippett may be too ‘defense first’ to be an ideal fit in Toronto, but Wilson can’t seem to get this team to play any kind of defensive game. But it isn’t just Wilson, Burke has said he wants an exciting offense oriented team that will ‘exchange chances’ with the opponent.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
in order to exchange chances with other teams you need a superior goalie. One that can stand on his head from game to game and steal a few.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Reimer was giving the leafs that last year – how many odd man rushes and breakaways did he backstop successfully. The leafs defence has always poor bad and now that they are getting below average goaltending it is clear. 20/20 – the team defensive issues were obvious last year but just about everyone missed that.
ALIVE, we have a couple corpses already.
Leaf fan in Ottawa.
by joe leaf fan on Feb 19, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Can we finally stop starting Reimer? I know guys here love him as do I but it’s clear he isn’t the same since the concussion. He is fighting the puck and doesn’t have his confidence.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
It doesn’t really matter who the Leafs start. Neither Reimer nor Gus is going to give them good goaltending with any consistency.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
I’d like to see Gus given a chance to get a run of games like January where he has no fear of not being the goalie for the next game regardless of outcome.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
He’s gotten that earlier in the season, and he didn’t do anything with it. If anything both goalies should be stepping it up since the jobs theirs to take if they can turn out good performances with consistency…. but neither goalie has
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I didn’t expect to win the game by any stretch but I didn’t expect it to be quite as embarrassing as that. If we can’t get Suter as a UFA (wouldn’t that be nice?) I’d love to see the Leafs try and sign Willie Mitchell to a shortterm deal
http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com
Aulie needs to go back to the Marlies and get on that bus to Peoria
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He can’t be worse than Aulie.
I will stand beside him with an axe! @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Feb 19, 2012 10:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was at the Marlies’ game yesterday, thought Holzer looked pretty good. First real chance I had to watch the kid in any detail.
The Roar of the Masses Could be Farts.
by Self Destructive Zones on Feb 19, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh, agreed that last night particularly sucked. Not that the Leafs lost so much as the way they did it.
Agreed though, do NOT want Nash, Getzlaf, etc for the price it will require to get them. I am hoping that maybe there are some better defensive forwards to be had by trade, although I’m not sure exactly who that might be.
That being said, if anything happens, it’ll probably be way out of left field and no one will have seen it coming, just like most other major Burke deals.
Yet another Leaf fan in Ottawa.
Steve Simmonds- I think Toronto should look at packaging Kadri, Schenn, Gradiner and a 1st.
W.T.F.
Leaf fan in Ottawa.
Steve Simmonds suggested that Kessel-for-Nash was a good idea. Steve Simmonds is basically HFBoards.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
by Bower Power on Feb 19, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
What a gigantic dipshit.
I have found something I want in Toronto even less then Lebda.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
It’s a great deal and just shows us how much Nash is over paid.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
A: Neal gets to play with Malkin (or Crosby) for next 6 years b: Columbus had to overpay to get Nash to sign
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Feb 19, 2012 11:44 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
Thats a solid deal
Take a look at the Pens on Capgeek. Yeah they are lucky the got Crosby and Malkin, but they’ve done an excellent job building a team around those guys. Their salary structure is really good.
The fact that they get 4 UFA seasons out of that is really good for them. That’s below market value.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I dont mind Wilson, but I question giving the Kessel line defensive zone faceoffs when the Sedin line was fresh and you knew they were gonna come on. That led to the 3rd goal.
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Feb 19, 2012 10:49 AM EST via Android app reply actions
Take a look at the bottom of this list of players sorted by GA/20 for players with >500 minutes of zone start adjusted 5v5 ice time.
Then look at who is in spot #65 and ask yourself if he deserves to be bumped up to the first line.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 10:52 AM EST reply actions
it’d be a little easier if the rows were numbered… can you just name the player?
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry, wrong link.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
So Grabovski is ranked #65 amongst forwards? I think if you take out all the wingers, I’d say he definitely deserves to get bumped up to the 1st line, the problem being that would put all of the Leafs scoring on the same line…
Is that what you were going for?
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I want his defensive presence on the first line as Kessel, Bozak and Lupul sit #233, #234 and #235 (of 236). As it is, as much offense is the first line is giving us their awful defense makes their on-ice contribution barely above neutral.
I’d then put Connolly with MacArthur and Kulemin and see if they can get something going and drop Bozak to the 3rd line or use as trade bait and promote Colborne to 3rd line center.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with pretty much all of that. Bozak’s shown some nice offensive flair this year, but his defensive game is just awful and we really need someone who can compensate for Kessel and Lupul in the defensive zone on that first line.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
or split up Kessel and Lupul sometimes.
by pho king awesome on Feb 19, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Still leaves Kessel and Bozak together, and the centre is usually more responsible for what happens in the defensive zone.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
Have you looked at what Kulemin’s physical game brings to the Grabbo line.
He doesn’t score much this year but goes into the corner (it is not toughness) but how does he contribute to that line versus another winger?
Grabovski’s on-ice offensive numbers were better with Kulemin last year than without but this year it they have been better without than with. Grabovski is small but he is kind of a fearless battler at times too so I don’t think Kulemin gives him as much of a boost as it seems some of the other big wingers are giving their small centers.
MacArthur’s on-ice numbers have been better with Kulemin than without both last year and this year. I’d argue that MacArthur is softer than Grabovski, at least in terms of style of play, so it is probably more important to mix MacArthur with another winger with size.
A lot of this is really me just hypothesizing that matching one players strengths with another players weakness is better than matching up strengths like the way the first line is built currently (all three being offense first, speed oriented players though Lupul has some size and can do some digging in the corners).
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Grabbo played 17 minutes last night. Bozak, 18. In terms of ice time, Grabbo’s not missing much at all. If you’re talking about him being played with Kessel, well, imagine the prospect of Kulemin-Bozak-MacArthur.
Grabovski is on the “second” line precisely because he’s so good defensively. He’s still getting his ice time.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
by Bower Power on Feb 19, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Was just looking at your link... and have you checked out Gardiner's stats? As in.... #1 in some fairly important ways?
Fact 1. Anyway, what it shows is that in terms of the 163 defencemen who have over 300 minutes of 5v5 close, zone start adjusted, Gardiner is #1 in terms of Goals For per 20. Well ahead of Keith, Lidstrom, et al. Which will naturally raise a bunch of doubts amongst people, seeing as this kid is still flying way under the radar. So, I looked closer.
Fact 2. He did that while remaining #63 in terms of Goals Against per 20, out of 163 defence that have played 300 minutes. With only Gunnar being ahead of him on the Leafs – and just ahead – in terms of defence.
Fact 3. In terms of the absolute number of GF scored more than GA allowed, he was again the runaway leader. With 1.354 GF versus 0.722 GA, a difference of 0.632 GF per 20 minutes. To compare, Lidstrom is only 0.390, Weber is 0.273 and Keith is actually a negative.
Fact 4. If you think his team-mates might be stronger than usual, think again. They’re actually below the Mendoza line, really weak tea as the 108th best out of 163. Whereas Weber, Lidstrom, Keith and that lot rank in the top 30 in terms of strength of teammates playing with them.
Fact 5. In terms of your summary HAR Offense ratings, he’s #1. He’s #60 of 163 in terms of HAR Defence. And #2 overall, behind Barret Jackman, who appears to be excelling at defence.
I’m sure there’ll be people who think this is all down to luck, with a high PDO and such, but more and more, I’d say that while the kids makes mistakes, he’s more than making up for them.
And…. the level of Calder-talk should be way higher than it is. Landeskog, RNH and Henrique aren’t within throwing distance of Gardiner.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Unfortunately, Calder is decided largely on the basis of things like points, and Gardiner isn’t going to get serious consideration unless he finishes the year with something like 40 points.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Kids going to be a good defenceman for a long time
www.twitter.com/CameronSorley
by CameronSorley on Feb 19, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
The sample size is still smallish for Gardiner but the early indications are he could be in for a great career. IMO he is the only untouchable on the roster.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I mean, no one is untouchable if, say, Giroux or Stamkos is being offered. But realistically the guys I’d not trade would include:
Kessel, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gardiner, & Reimer.
Guys I’d be hesitant to let go:
Grabovski, Kulemin, Kadri, Blacker, Colborne, Schenn, and to a lesser degree Lupul and MacArthur
I don’t think there’s anyone else on the roster we could lose who wouldn’t be that difficult to replace.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I wouldn’t rule out trading Kessel if we can swap him for a skilled first line center because I generally think it is better to build your forward lines around centers and not wingers. It’s part of the reason I wouldn’t be trading for Nash because Nash and Kessel and Lupul would take up a lot of salary cap space from the wing position.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
I’ll add:
He is 87th in TMGF20 (average of teammates GF20 when not playing with Gardiner weighted by ice time played with Gardiner) so the offensive capability of his teammates is middle of the pack. He is also 112th in TMGA20 so his teammates are below middle of the pack defensively. That makes his teammates GF% just 0.467, good for just 108th.
So, while his teammates on average have a GF% of 0.467 when they play with Gardiner they are at 0.652 for a +0.185. Only Barret Jackman, Jay Harrison (remember him, he’s playing well in Carolina), Shea Weber, Trevor Daley and TJ Brodie are better.
Quality of opponent for Gardiner is not great so he doesn’t get a lot of ‘tough’ minutes but QoC is highly over rated in my opinion as variation in QoC is quite small relative to variation in talent and QoT.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Can you say that again in English?
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
He’s damn good!!
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
2013
didn’t i read during summer 2011 that many many great players are going to become free-agents spring of 2013? they say patience is a virtue… the sabres jumped all over B-talent this past summer (dummmmb), and i don’t think the upcoming one has too much to offer… but…. 2013…. hmmmmm. who’s on deck?
Some of the names becoming UFA’s in 2013 include:
Tim Connolly
Joffrey Lupul
Matthew Lombardi
Clarke MacArthur
Colby Armstrong
Tyler Bozak
David Steckel
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
The only players i want to possibly keep there are lupul (maybe), bozak and steckel.
by Goosemonster on Feb 19, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Depending on salary of course, I’d re-sign Lupul and consider re-signing Steckel. Bozak I’d use as trade bait while his value is high(ish).
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Its been proven on this site many times that faceoffs are overrated. Couple that with the fact Steckel is a mediocre skater at best and I would be more than willing to let him go. It irritates me watching him. It’s like Jason Allison with no skills.
by schennsational on Feb 19, 2012 4:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He has the lowest GA20 of any Leaf forward this season in zone adjusted 5v5close situations.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
He also faces pretty weak competition, but I’m perfectly happy with what he brings to the table relative to his salary and ice time.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Fourth highest opposition GF20 on the team so not that weak.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
His Corsi REL Qcomp is 4th easiest on the team among forwards who have played at least 10 games. Only guys with less are Frattin, Brown, and Dupuis (2 of whom play primarily with Steckel). Weak comp.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
There are so many problems when using Corsi REL Qcomp, the main one being (aside from it not being goal based) is it mixes offensive stats (corsi for) with defensive stats (corsi against). There is no way of telling from Corsi Rel Qcomp whether Steckel is playing against good offensive or good defensive players. If I want to see if his GA/20 is good or not I need to compare it to the oppositions GF/20. I have no idea how to do that with Corsi Rel Qcomp.
The most frequent forwards Steckel has faced in 5v5 close situations:
Cole, Desharnais, Kostitsyn, Burmistrov, Pacioretty, G. Campbell, Gaborik, Neal, Paille, Adams, Wheeler, Malkin, Ladd, Plekanec, Condra, Cooke, Greening, E. Kane, Stepan, Callahan, Byfuglien, B. Richards, Ponikarovsky, Tavares, Spezza, J. Jokinen, Little, Tlusty, E. Staal.
There are some pretty good players on that list. It seems he gets matched up against either first liners or fourth liners (maybe depending on who gets last change?).
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
GF and GA are too influenced by luck to be useful for determining things like QComp. For example, Keith Aulie was the best Leaf defender last season by GA/60 by a fairly wide margin. That’s misleading though, because he’s actually one of the worst defenders the Leafs have. So going on that basis, Aulie would appear to be the “toughest” Leaf defender to have faced last season. But he wasn’t, he was among the easiest, as his SA/60 (highest on the team by a huge margin) shows.
Aulie just happenned to play in front of the best stretch of goaltending that the Leafs had last season, and as a result he ended up with a PDO of 1024, much higher than any other Leaf, and a strong indication that his numbers were influenced more by luck than skill. Goals for and against are heavily influenced by luck, unluck SF/SA, which have virtually no element of luck in them.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
You actually have mixed up some concepts, individual stats vs QComp stats.
An individuals GF and GA have a factor of luck involved over small sample sizes, such as Aulie’s half a season last year. But, when we merge all of Aulie’s oppositions GF and GA stats we are eliminating a lot of luck because for every opponent that is lucky in a good way there is likely an opponent that is lucky in a bad way because league-wide luck averages to zero. As a result, luck is probably a very small factor in goal based QComp. This absence of a luck factor is probably partly why there is so little variance in QComp measures.
As for whether we should be using goals or corsi based stats it can be shown that with >500 or so minutes of ice time goals are as good as or a better predictor of future goals than corsi is a predictor of future goals and really, predicting future goals is what I care about (not predicting future corsi, which past corsi is a good predictor of).
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
More shots equates to more goals, either for or against. Not sure why you’d want to use a goalie to evaluate a skater.
NYR give up the same SA per game (29.1) as does CHI (29.2), but NYR has Lundqvist while CHI has Emery and Crawford and as such their GA/G difference is 0.96. As a result, per your metric, Keith and Seabrook are worse defensemen than Girardi and Eminger.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
And here is where we have a philosophical difference. I believe players can influences the percentages (especially shooting percentage) and thus using shots alone doesn’t give us an accurate measure of a players value because as nice as it is to get shots, it’s significantly better to get goals. Shots don’t win you games, goals do.
My challenge to the pro-corsi crowd is to do a corsi comparison of Gomez vs Crosby over the past 3 seasons. Let me know what you find.
Yes, defensively we need a better way of factoring out the goalie but Steckel plays in front of the same goalies as the rest of the Leafs so comparisons on the same team are certainly valid.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Gomez also plays in front of Lundqvist/Price, whereas Crosby has Fleury. So what are their GA/60 numbers?
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Do a corsi analysis and tell me who the better offensive player is and how much better that player is.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
I never said ignore context. Consider whatever context you like so long as you are making reasonable adjustments/considerations.
I am actually as much interested in the methodology as the results (which I think might be interesting for these two). If I asked you to compare Crosby to Gomez, how would you do it and what would the results be?
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Sign Lupes, Maybe bozak and Mac. Maybe.
For the rest of them, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
If we can get Steckel on the cheap I’d be ok with keeping him too
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
I could be persuaded
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
7G 1A in 56GP isn’t bad for a 4th liner
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Sign Lupul over Macarthur?
We are going to re sign the guy who can score but is 29 and blows defensively over the guy who can score but is 27, is versatile can be moved around the lineup, and is good defensively?
Or do you honestly think Lupul will be producing this way two years from now? Well, I guess he has that cool twitter account.
I am not a GM, do not take me as such.
And yes, I would.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I forgot that production automatically jumps over a cliff after 29. If hes still producing around then, why not resign him?
by JohnerstonRex on Feb 19, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
More of a slope than a cliff

There are other considerations though, cost and term being a major one. Obviously, if it’s Lupul for 2mil x3 and Mac for 5mil x5 than i’d take Lupul.
But i doubt the decision will be that obvious. I also doubt that Lupul will ever produce 60 points again. Maybe one or two more times if he plays with Kessel.
And I mean one or two more times in the next two or three years.
And his two way game will likely still be shit.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. He’s a damn good fit right now. But he is not a core piece of this team long term.
I can agree with that. If he can learn to play better defensively I think he could still be valuable to the team in 2-3 years, even if his point production slips. Assuming we ever have a coach who can teach the team how to play defensively.
by JohnerstonRex on Feb 19, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Can I just point out that the peak-to-trough difference in this “slope/cliff” is only 4-5 points over the course of a season? And that with 5 or 6 years or experience, you should pretty much be able to reduce goals against by at least a few of those?
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t have a link handy, but Eric T over at BSH has looked at shots by age, and it follows a pretty similar curve.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
We can’t really do very good historical studies of things like Corsi by age because we’ve only got that kind of data for a few seasons.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Oh shots for, sorry. I don’t know if anyone’s ever looked at shots against by age. Would be interesting.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Only player on that list I’d sign for sure is MacArthur. Lupul, Lombardi, and Steckel could all be worth it depending on what kind of money they’re looking for.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
What happens now?
Well, we cheer for Carolina tomorrow and spank New Jersey on Tuesday. Keep the dream alive! PLAYOFFS!!!!!!1
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Feb 19, 2012 12:10 PM EST reply actions
As shitty as they’ve played the last two weeks, they’re still holding on to the last playoff spot.
Cynically Sarcastic
Сертыфікаваны Grabbo Палюбоўнік
Said the same thing last night. Clearly the bleeding has to stop but we are still there and a positive run would solidify it.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Good HA link on the mixing toughness with skill.
I’m a big fan of Bozak and think he’s one of those guys who continue to improve and surprise, but some toughness at center on that line would pay huge dividends. (And yes, I know it’s hard to come by.) Also just frigging tired of seeing Connolly, Lombardi et al – with great speed, nice moves, etc. – have no one to give the puck to in close, no one whacking rebounds that squirt back to them, no one digging the puck out for them, etc.
It’s just the wrong mix of players up front. And yes, the team can score, and looks great 50% of the time when the ice opens up, but when it closes down, they got nothing.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 12:23 PM EST reply actions
Duh-Duh-DUUUHHHHHHHHHH
@darenmillard: Sportsnet can confirm Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke meet with Columbus GM Scott Howson this morning at a NYC hotel. Full story on snet.ca soon
Huh.
BCWW
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Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
by OffTheChest on Feb 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Are you implying that someone is getting fucked in this deal?
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
fucked I can handle. powerfucked I can handle. Hate-fucked I can handle.
I don’t think this rendezvous is going to be that romantic, however.
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Feb 19, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, hopefully Columbus is the one who won’t be walking right tomorrow.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
from Columbus? Gross… i hope he’s going to finalize the sweet deal we got on Carter.
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Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
by OffTheChest on Feb 19, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
personally
i wouldn’t wanna trade Grabbo. we would have some serious depth at C.
then try move some of our “defence” for an experienced/somewhat confident goalie, or something.
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
by OffTheChest on Feb 19, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
did Burke take a red-eye? He was just in Vancouver last night.
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Feb 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
That’s what they said. Said he flew right after the game by himself to NYC.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
wow, this sounds ominous.
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Feb 19, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
No, no, it’s not what you think. Howson just has a wide stance.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
by Bower Power on Feb 19, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
So they met in an NYC Hotel mens’ room?
Doubtful. Burke’s stated publicly he’s a Democrat.
by AsburyJukes75 on Feb 19, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe Howson is going to send Nash to Philly for baby Schenn and Bobrovsky, and send Carter to Toronto for older Schenn.
Oooh a three way. Now its getting interesting.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I hope this is because Burke realises that we need a centre who can play defence on our first line (Carter) and not because he thinks we need another scoring winger who isn’t good in his own end (Nash).
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Burke’s in NYC for a different reason. Says meeting with Howson was unscheduled.
Pension Plan Puppets
I hope YouTube comes down to film this.
You can’t schedule meetings in barns.
Leaf fan in Ottawa.
by joe leaf fan on Feb 19, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
When does baseball season start? The Blue Jays finishing 1st in the AL East looks more promising than us doing anything this year.
If I bled any more blue, you'd think I wasn't human.
Fuck baseball.
Riding the Leafs bandwagon since 1991.
Check out my art!
by CanadianMaple09 on Feb 19, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Vesa Toskala: Mocked in two countries.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/2/19/2809973/when-did-vesa-toskala-last-win
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
I have a question for you guys:
Do you guys know what type of “system” is employed in the offensive and defensive zones by the Leafs. i.e. this is what the forwards are trying to do on the breakout either along the boards or up the middle of the ice etc…., I’m trying to recall what strategy the Leafs are using in these situations but I’m having trouble gathering a consistent technique.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lupul is Lupul backwards
Officially on Team Re-Sign Grabbo
Twitter
Leafs break out up the middle. They are terrible along the boards. Watch Lupul, he always cheats to the middle of the ice in his own zone and when a defenceman whips the puck around the boards he is out of position
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Feb 19, 2012 12:49 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think Lupul could be coached into being better along the boards in the defensive zone. He’s excellent at puck recovery in the offensive zone, so I think it’s a style issue and not a skill issue.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
He has done it all year and has burned the Leafs, if its a.style thing, why hasnt it been fixed?
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Feb 19, 2012 1:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
No idea. My guess is that he’s not being coached to play that way, but I have no idea what Wilson actually says to players.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Everyone knows the answer but don’t want to admit it. Lupul and Kessel play too far off the wall on purpose, because they don’t want to take hits from pinching defencemen. Simple as that.
" No one wants advice - only corroboration " - John Steinbeck
by GreatKingRat on Feb 19, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Or because they play a fast transition game
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
Thats ridiculous
Fairweather fans can go to hell
Equal oppurtunity asshole and a proud member of the PPPPP
Follow me on twitter: leafer1984
by leafer1984 on Feb 19, 2012 2:01 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
He’s done it all career. Edmonton fans have described Lupul as frustratingly allergic to board play.
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
The weird thing is that he’s very strong on the boards in the offensive zone, though. He’s not like Kessel, who doesn’t play hard along the boards in either zone.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
i'm starting to wonder what the harm
in calling up Frattin would be even if he does shift into the fourth line. He’d be the best fourth liner in the NHL and obviously alot better than anyone on our third line.
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
Harm
Would have to expose somebody to waivers.
He’d be the best fourth liner in the NHL and obviously alot better than anyone on our third line.Incorrect on both accounts.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Incorrect on both accounts.
well that settles it then.
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
by OffTheChest on Feb 19, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
fixed: ONE of the best fourth liners in the NHL and in the short time he was up here, looked to me better than two thirds of our third line.
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
RE: waivers, can a club place a player on waivers that has already been on waivers earlier in the same season? ie. Crabb;
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
so really, there is no harm… :P
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
Except that they could be claimed by another team.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
i don't wanna turn this into yahoo answers
but can players with NMC be waived?
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Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
ahhh darnit
.................................................................................................
Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
Oh noes someone would pick up Rosehill who hasn’t played since Toskala won his last game.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
David William Naylor @TSNDaveNaylor
Funny to hear people say Leafs “have to make playoffs this year.” Like, what’s gonna happen if they don’t? The ACC will be empty next fall??
I wish i could tweet my fist in his face
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Remember, be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
"Believe" - Charlie the unicorn.
Release the Frattin.
by OffTheChest on Feb 19, 2012 1:13 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
No Dave you idiot
the world ends this year. Fuck sakes man.
Leaf fan in Ottawa.
by joe leaf fan on Feb 19, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
To be honest
We don’t have to. I don’t think it makes much difference to the long term health of the club whether we do or not, and if we finish any lower than 6th I don’t like our chances in the opening series try much.
I definitley don’t want Burke selling the farm to make the playoffs.
We don’t have to finish in the playoffs but someone like Kessel is going to think twice about resigning with an organization that can’t get in. Also why would free agents want to come to a market where they are under a daily microscope to play for a lacklustre team?
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Kessel’s contract isn’t up for 2 more years. If we’re still out of the playoffs by then we should probably be thinking very seriously about trading Kessel anyway.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
yeah I get what he’s implying (bahh) but he is right in the sense that the Leafs will have fans next year whether they make it or not. of course that doesn’t mean MLSE won’t spend or all that claptrap but there isn’t the same business pressure as, say, Dallas where fans have already stopped showing up
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Feb 19, 2012 3:15 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I’d skip the playoffs this year if it means we netted some sure-fire elite talent.
Of course, if you can show me what sure-fire elite talent looks like in this league…
RIP Former-and-forever Leaf Wade Belak
Me on Twitter
The opposite of Lebda, Brett?
Finally got twitter...@mapleleafmjt
by Chi-town leafs on Feb 19, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Are those trade proposals offering 3 or 4 roster players for Nash at all realistic?
I get that we overvalue players and what they actually contribute to the team, but not only losing the players we’d have to trade but losing cap room to fill those spots with new players makes no sense for a team so close to the cap.
If we’d magically lose Komisarek, Lombardi, and Armstrong, that would be something, but it’s not going to happen.
@yearofme
A deal for Nash would almost certainly include one of Gardiner or Gunnarsson, which is to say that it would require the Leafs to trade away the kind of player we need more of, not less.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Guy on Sportsnet.ca article on Nash/Leafs
If you pull this off Burke you are a magician. Kings have lots to trade and so do the Rangers. Alot more than the leafs. It would likely cost you Kadri, Armstrong and a 3rd round pick.
DONE!
Leaf fan in Ottawa.
I’d give Columbus Armstrong and a 3rd for nothing so
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
by Chemmy on Feb 19, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Nash = Throw-In
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Burke will overpay for Nash or Carter but get Howson to throw that bench warmer Johansen. /dreams
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Just change Armstrong to Kulemin, the 3rd round pick to a first round pick and add in Schenn and I think you might be getting somewhere.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
shot in the dark
but what do you think the asking price for a guy like Halak?
I think if the I’m the leafs maybe I take a stab at some Stewart + Halak deal…
I know i’m dreaming but still…
Any thoughts?
SAUCED
My thought is that St.Louis is definitely not trading Halak this season because they have no interest in destroying their playoff chances by trading away a goalie.
Why would they do that? They are going to to hold on to two quality goalies, just like the ‘Nucks and Bruins are. It’s a good idea to have 2 if you can.
Unless we massively overpay, which would not help us.
This trade would never happen before the deadline.
"They build a statue, they knock it down and piss on it, and now they will be out there building it again."
by ThickSkinnedAlive on Feb 19, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
I realize they have Elliot
But that doesn’t mean you trade away Halak, they have no reason to unless someone makes them a ridiculous offer. Especially not if that deal is for futures, they probably want to make a run this year.
NOOOOOOOOOOO
Do not trade for Brian Elliot ever!!! He has been terrible every year until now. I’d rather stick with what we have. If anyone gives up a serious asset for Elliot they will regret it.
by schennsational on Feb 19, 2012 4:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Gardiner.
well, that escalated quickly
by aelanK on Feb 19, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Yup. Don’t move this kid. He’s 21.
Rather move a 1st, or other defender.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Neither
but if I had to choose, Carter because the acquisition price would likely be cheaper.
No no, dig UP stupid.
by nhlcheapshot on Feb 19, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t really want Nash at almost any cost. Carter I would trade for at the right cost. If we really want someone off Columbus though, I think we should be angling for Tyutin.
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".
Internet Champ. I'm on Twitter too! - draglikepull
by Draglikepull on Feb 19, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I’d take a chance on Brassard if the acquisition cost wasn’t too high.
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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 19, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
"[Chris] is not himself and it’s not in a good way."
Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.
A reporter going to a family member for an update on a player injury?
Did they learn nothing from Reimer-gate?
No no, dig UP stupid.
by nhlcheapshot on Feb 19, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
The nerve of these reporters actually doing some investigation.
I will stand beside him with an axe! @theninjagreg
by theninjagreg on Feb 19, 2012 3:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think a move is coming soon...
and some AHL moves, we gonna send a message that shitty play isn’t accepted. But keep Grabbo if we think we can sign him at seasons end. He’s a beaut.
Lebda still gives me nightmares
I think we need a full on movement to get Gardiner some Calder trophy love.
Ideas?
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 7:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I've got one
Parade him around the city on a golden throne, hoisted high above the shoulders of his loyal followers as we all chant “Gardiner for Calder!”. This will get him right over the top. I’ve already made the down payment on the throne, which day works best for you all?
Lebda still gives me nightmares
Agreed.
I think there’s a lot we can do from here. I’ve had this sort of thing happen on other sites – political ones, and policy ones, not so much hockey ones – and the main thing is whether there are MSM reporters crawling through your site from time to time, as Mirtle – amongst others – does here.
After MSM reporters have caught the idea, it’s more a matter of feeding in new facts, doing comparisons against other candidates, and maybe getting a bit of buzz going. Gardiner was being under-hyped for a series of reasons for most of the early year. People knew more about prospects like Kadri, or Reimer or Schenn’s troubles, or their hopes for Colborne, and the kid went under-recognized. Also, whereas other cities love to build a bandwagon behind a kid, in Toronto our big buzzes come around trades, firing coaches, and whether we make the playoffs or not. Plus, the thing with Gardiner is he’s just really bloody QUIET!
But if we can get his overall stats out… compare him to the other main candidates…. get people asking questions to him and about him, like getting Wilson and others to talk about him…. get Leaf fans excited at the possibility…. that’s doing a lot.
Writing blogs on other sites will help too, obviously.
My thing is to dig out some of the stats comparisons, and then hope the reporters do their job and ask Wilson and Burke and other hockey experts what they see. What I see is a kid who has the kind of effortless skating that you get in guys who last 20 years. And he’s only going to get better at shooting, taking it to the net, his positional awareness, and knowing his teammates and the opposition tendencies.
To make the obvious comparison, I can’t see any way in which he’s weaker than Tomas Kaberle. Kabby’s 1st year? On a 97 point Leaf team… he played 57 games… and had 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points. He was a +3 and had 5 PP points. His TOI was 18:42 Total, of which 1:12 was on the PK and 3:33 on the PP.
Gardiner is 52-3-15-18 right now, just a notch below Kabby. He has a +7 (better) and 4 PP points. He’s playing more time at ES and on the PK (1:47) but less on the PP (1:54.) All in all though, comparable stats.
And I think Gardiner’s upside is higher, as he’d faster and doesn’t mind blasting a shot now and then.
Anyway, maybe somebody could do a story up comparing those two, or Gardiner to Niedermayer. etc.
Just thinking out loud.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
That’s pretty good.
I was just going to get belligerently drunk and graffiti his name on my roof. Likely then to fall of the roof and spend 4 weeks in a hospital recovering from my injuries. At the hospital I would befriend a nurse who has an uncle in the voting committee. At this point I would then need to develop technology to subliminally implant ideas of Jake getting the trophy.
But yeah, your idea is much better. Lets do that.
At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 19, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
your idea is pretty good Nifty… I actually tried that already, but ended up with a 75 year old man as my nurse, with no living uncles much to my disappointment and instant regret. But really, not norm ullman’s idea is actually solid. It’s a damn good start anyways.
Lebda still gives me nightmares
by TannShazamm on Feb 19, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
How about we start with the getting drunk and climbing up on the roof bit…. but then maybe phone for pizza, and tip the pizza guy extra to get us down off the roof.
Cheaper. Also, gives the pizza guy another story he can tell his buds.
Plus, pizza.
Fuck I’m hungry.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 19, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
If only Jake Gardiner heard of this plan, he’d join us on the roof no doubt. Him and Mike Brown, he just seems like the get shmammered on the roof and eat pizza type.
Lebda still gives me nightmares
by TannShazamm on Feb 19, 2012 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
This moustache just screams "Roof Pizza"
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At least it's not Lebda.
by Nifty Mittens on Feb 20, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Brown looks like the kind of guy who’d be down your chimney to cook himself a pizza, have your wife, and be off with your valuables in a pretty short period of time.
I shot a moose once, in upstate New York.
by not norm ullman on Feb 20, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Like a new and improved Santa Claus!
except for the wife part. Nah who am I kidding if I had a wife I’d be honored for him to take her. How can you reject a ’stache like that?!
Lebda still gives me nightmares
Well, Toronto isn't the only team that gets voted "overrated" in player polls
Canucks named most overrated team, Pavel Datsyuk dominates in NHLPA poll
1 in 4 players named Vancouver the most overrated team.
No no, dig UP stupid.
fuck the Canucks
it's sad, but living in B.C. has caused me to hate the Canucks more than the Habs. almost.
by Kevin Costner on Feb 19, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, look at the overrated team who made it to Game 7 of the Cup Finals and lead their division while being 2nd in the league.
There overrated polls are so stupid. If you underrate Datsyuk, you are an idiot.
The First Certified Grabbo Lover
Most players considered Datsyuk to be the toughest to play against
The veteran centre was named the smartest player, most difficult to play against, hardest to get off the puck, cleanest to play against and toughest forward to play against. Goalies also named him toughest to stop.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lupul is Lupul backwards
Officially on Team Re-Sign Grabbo
Twitter
by LeafFan1989 on Feb 19, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone else watching the jets-Avs game? If the Jets win it, they’ll be tied with us in the standings.
Next season of 24/7: "I am named Mikhail. I watch video to fold together strategy. I want outdoors to fight bravely."
by Peter de Chatham on Feb 19, 2012 9:39 PM EST reply actions
Was just proposed a trade...
My fantasy team’s goaltending situation is ass-tastic. My best guy is Kari Lehtonen but after him I only have Giguere(injured), Hedberg(behind Brodeur) and Roloson(garbage). So I put a note out there saying I’ll trade pretty much anyone for a starter. Someone came back with this:
Martin St. Louis
Niklas Backstrom
4th
for
Alexander Ovechkin
1st
St. Louis has been pretty good this year and Ovechkin has been less than stellar and Backstrom is head and shoulders above any of my backups. The first round pick I’m trading would be late (likely 10-12) and the 4th round pick would be early in that round.
I drafted Ovechkin 1st overall this year and I’m still convinced he could turn it around at any time but is he worth hanging onto at the expense of my goaltending categories? This is a dynasty league and I’m only 8th out of 12 right now, mostly because of my goaltending shitstorm.
RE-SIGN GRABBO
I kind of want to counter offer and switch St. Louis for Eriksson
RE-SIGN GRABBO
by Chris Stoikoff on Feb 19, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
I traded Ovechkin almost two months ago. I don’t think he’s turning it around this year and I stand by that decision.
You may be right
I’ve always held out but picking him 1st overall instead of Malkin is looking like a huge mistake. I want him to turn it around but I can’t wait forever, and even if I trade him I’ve still got one superstar on my roster (if Crosby ever comes back that is). I counter offered him and it now looks like:
Loui Eriksson (LW+RW, more of what I need)
Niklas Backstrom
4th
for
Alex Ovechkin
2nd
RE-SIGN GRABBO
by Chris Stoikoff on Feb 19, 2012 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
I took Ovie 2nd overall and it killed me. In fact this season was the highest I’ve ever drafted in a hockey pool and worst I’ve ever faired standings-wise.
Ouch
It was my first draft and first team ever so sitting in a playoff position (8 out of 12) is about the best I could have hoped for. Next time I draft my own damn team instead of letting the computer do it based on pre-ranked players so I can actually have a top center and a goalie.
RE-SIGN GRABBO
by Chris Stoikoff on Feb 19, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I got this offer for Malkin (i.e. i’m giving him up):
Malkin, Parise, Liles & Hamhuis
Lecavalier, Ovechkin, Letang and Weber.
Thinking it’s a good deal.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lupul is Lupul backwards
Officially on Team Re-Sign Grabbo
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by LeafFan1989 on Feb 19, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Mega deal! Man, that’s an interesting one.
Guess it would depend on the scoring system in your league. I think you will get more powerplay points back in that deal no?
standard h2h league in yahoo, giving up the best player in the deal. Lecavalier is about 60% of Malkin’s Production, Ovechkin and Parise are right there, slight edge to Ovechkin. Letang and Weber obviously much better. took me a long time to get that offer.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lupul is Lupul backwards
Officially on Team Re-Sign Grabbo
Twitter
by LeafFan1989 on Feb 19, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Pittsburgh and Jersey look stronger than Washington and Tampa down the stretch. Forwards get more points than defenceman, so your rival GM might be playing for the odds that Malkin and Parise will be in a better position to collect pts next few months.
I immediately thought you should for sure take it, but anything could happen to swing that deal.
Yeah it’s a tough one to judge. Malkin and Parise have been better than Lecavalier and Ovechkin but Letang and Weber have been way better than Liles and Hamhuis.
Letang and Weber get you a measurable upgrade on defense but Lecavalier and Ovie are a downgrade at forward. Pittsburgh and Jersey are better than Tampa and Washington but Ovechkin technically could turn it up as the Caps fight for a playoff spot.
Honestly this deal could go in any direction. Go with your heart, son.
RE-SIGN GRABBO
by Chris Stoikoff on Feb 20, 2012 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I’m banking on the d-men and Ovechkin turing his game up ever so slightly, at his current level, he’s almost neck and neck with Parise in every category. The guy didn’t want to include Kopitar instead of Lecavalier otherwise it was a slam dunk.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lupul is Lupul backwards
Officially on Team Re-Sign Grabbo
Twitter
As for this story...
Birky, I don’t know if getting Nash puts them over some kind of immediate hump. But he would immediately become our best player and long-term I think that will work out.
Obviously there is a point at which this trade hurts the Leafs if Burke gives up too much, but why does everybody think that Toronto WILL give up too much?
I trust that if we get Nash we will pay a hefty but reasonable price. Not sure why everyone assumes Toronto will get cleaned out on this deal, but yes, it will be expensive. So it should be. Just as it was to get Kessel.
The alternative is to hope that one of our kids work out to to trade for a more highesr risk (but less expensive) player(s).
Me personally I think it’s good to try and find diamonds in the rough out there on the trade market, but for God’s sake, make a deal for a sure thing once in a while too.
Burke in NYC today. As is Columbus. I think this deal is going to happen. So brace yourselves!
I’m not against getting Nash but I don’t think he’s what the Leafs need. For a few reasons.
One, he’s not playing with Kessel because there’s no way they’re breaking up Kessel and Lupul as long as it’s working. Besides that he’s basically a more physical but slower Kessel anyways.
Two, related to number one, he’s not a center.
Three, his contract is way too big and he’s going to be old soon.
I’d rather have Getzlaf (best case) or even Carter (consolation prize) even though his contract sucks too.
RE-SIGN GRABBO
by Chris Stoikoff on Feb 19, 2012 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Nash is 27 and signed for another 6 years. He has a lot of great years ahead of him.
He’s the kind of player who can dominate games even when they are physical and tight checking, hence the power forward label. Well deserved.
True, he’s not a center, but 1C centers barely ever become available so that shouldn’t be surprising. If we’re waiting for an established star centerman via anything but the draft, we might be waiting a long time.
As far as his salary, it’s high. But he only makes $300K more than Dany Heatley. It’s all relative.
One other thing… the media and us fans are assuming that that Columbus are asking for the Universe in return. I’m not so sure it will be as steep as people think. Nash is NOT having a great season. His salary is quite high and that usually affects what GM’s get back. Plus, like I said before, Burke is not going to cripple the franchise to get him.
I hope this happens. Badly. In case you haven’t noticed!
It all depends on what we'd have to give up...
Obviously any team would want Nash, it all depends on the price. If the price is right, go for it! He’s an elite player and with his size he can continue to be for years to come.
Lebda still gives me nightmares
We're all having Jake Gardiner and Mike Brown over for some Roof Pizza!

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