Maple Leafs Fan Cheering Guide - Feb. 5

FROWN TOWN

Fresh off of putting the boot to Ottawa last night the Leafs playoff odds are up to 85.4% via SportsClubStats.

Boston Bruins 4 (+0.5%) at Washington Capitals 1

This game is pretty obvious: Washington is playing their game in hand right now and are two points behind the Leafs. Since the Leafs are unlikely to win the division: who cares, go Bruins.

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 at New Jersey Devils 5 (-0.4%)

A regulation win in this game is better than it going to OT no matter who wins. If New Jersey wins in OT the impact to Toronto is -0.6% since the Leafs are also chasing Pittsburgh. Go Penguins, but mostly cheer for regulation.

Montreal Canadiens (+0.4%) at Winnipeg Jets (-0.4%)

On this birthday of Scott Gomez's last goal we'll cheer for the pathetic Habs to help keep the Jets in the rear view mirror. Spend some time thinking about signing 30 year old UFAs who used to be elite to big dollar long term contracts.

Philadelphia Flyers 2 at New York Rangers 5 (-?)

I don't think this game has any real impact on the Leafs, but strangely it's not listed at SportsClubStats for Toronto. Cheer for Brad Richards (that guy Toronto should have broken the bank for) to continue his recent hot streak (10GP 1G 1A 2Pts). Richards trails Mikhail Grabovski in the scoring race by four points despite playing three more games.

An interesting note comes via their website for people who were complaining yesterday about three point games never going Toronto's way. Check out the change from yesterday:

Leafs def. Senators: +6.6%
Flyers def. Devils: -1.0%
Lightning def. Panthers: +0.6%
Capitals def. Canadiens: -0.5%
Penguins def. Bruins: -0.1%
Sabres def. Islanders: +0.1%

Total: +9.42%

This is the correct value for the total change. It might not match the sum of the individual game changes above it because the individual impacts are each calculated in a vacuum. To take an extreme example, imagine it is the last day of the season and 2 game results can each knock you out of the playoffs, say take you from a 25% chance to a 0% chance. Loosing the first game makes the second game meaningless, but I list them both as costing you 25%. The total is correct because I just take the teams current total chance and subtract their chance at the end of yesterday (or last week, depending on the sport).

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