Do The Leafs 'Give Up' on Grabbo?

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I think the Jake Gardiner for Calder opportunity needs a rethink by Leaf fans – followed by a more concerted push -as noted by the Blue Chip Prospect link. There are years when the Calder is wide open, and this is one of those years. There is just no obvious, or even half-way obvious, winner. And the Leafs, as we all know, have not been very well rewarded in these categories over the years. So…. we’re due.

Here’s the deal. The other rookies out there this year, while showing potential, and yes, we’d love to have them, are, in fact, not producing great years. But this is not a year with a rookie like Malkin or Kane or Ovechkin. In fact, we may see no one break 50 points. It’s more like the years when people like Ryder led the rookie scoring a decade ago.

And when you take a close look at the other Top Dozen candidates, it’s important to note that – even though most of them are getting the much lighter job of playing forward – and even though some are young and sexy – none are knocking it out of the ballpark. And even more important, almost all of them are sagging in the second half, whereas Gardiner is surging.

1. Take RNH. Great kid. Still only has 35 points. Playing with some talented wingers, so that helps. But let’s tell the truth on two things. 1st off, the kid only has 17 Even Strength points. That’s it. So 18 of his points are PP. Plus… he’s injured. Again. So. Do 17 ES points a Calder winner make? Nope. But Edmonton is hyping him, for their own reasons. And I think sometimes in Toronto e buy the hype out of other towns, while cutting our own kid short. Let’s look at a few more candidates.

2. Henrique on the Devils. 34 points. Not spectacular. Plus… And he’s playing with… Kovalchuk and Parise. Holy shit. Think you could pick up some points playing with those two? And let’s be serious. The kid never had more than 7 points in the OHL, even as a 20 year old, and then 50 in the AHL. His scoring is obviously pretty massively affected by who he’s with. Also, no points in his last 6 games.

3. Read on the Flyers. He’s got 32 points. But he’s 25. He has the most even strength points amongst rookies, at just 22. He also takes face-offs. 233 of them. With a 40% winning percentage. And 1 point in 7 games.

4. Landeskog on Colorado. Only 28 points in all, just 20 at ES. And if I may, just so we don’t get too too excited about 20 ES points, I’d note that Matt Frattin had 10, in less than HALF the ES ice-time of Landeskog. That is, Frattin scored more at ES per minute than Landeskog.

5. Hodgson on the Canucks. 30 points. But 10 on the PP. So only 20 at ES. (And 20 ES points would, for an absolute comparison, rank you #126 in the NHL.)

6. Greening on Ottawa. Only 27 points in all, 20 at ES, just 3 in his last 11, and -7 overall.

7. Couturier. Only 20 points total in 49 games, just 1 in his last 7.

As a reminder, remember that Gardiner has 17 points, playing Defense, at just age 21, with only 3 points coming on the PP, he plays workhorse minutes, and as many minutes on the PK as on the PP.

But…. the #1 reason we need to look ahead and start banging the drum for this kid… he’s on a tear. Not sagging. Has 7 points in his last 9 games, and if you watch him, he’s more and more… and more…. involved in the offense. Gaining confidence.

I’d say the real contenders for the Calder are on the blueline, actually. And nope, it’s not Pylon 8. Cowen in Ottawa or 9. Diaz in Montreal (who is 26) or that 10. Gragnani guy in Buffalo (who’ll be 25 soon.) (Or Rundblad or Gudbranson.)

It’s 11. Adam Larsson in NJ. His points are just behind Jake’s (16) and he’s younger. And he also plays big minutes. But:

A) He’s tailing off badly, with just 3 points in his last 16 games, after 13 in his first 32.

B) And he’s a -6 versus Jake’s +9. A pretty massive 15 points in plus/minus.

C) Jake is playing way more minutes on the PK, like 1:30 more per game.

So.

1st. Beyond the hype machine, there are no obvious Calder type winners out there this year. With RNH going down, it’s open. 2nd. When you take even a cursory look at how people are scoring, you quickly turn away from this year’s forward crop. Some nice players, but none with even 23 ES points? Weak. 3rd. Other teams are smart enough to beat the drum for their kid. They’re trying hard to sell hockey in tight markets, or save a GM’s ass. 4th. Jake Gardiner is revving his engines. i.e. Going on a tear, not sagging. And that could make him a stronger candidate as the weeks pass.

The main problem? HE PLAYS IN TORONTO AND THIS IS WHAT WE DO TO OUR SUCCESS STORIES.

I’ve watched this shit for decades. But right now? Every single mistake the kid makes, we’re on like hawks. We SEE it, COMMENT on it, WORRY about it. Even when he recovers, we say, “Thank God he can skate – because what a fucking mistake.” Except, hello…. skating? He’s not a Coffey or an ORR, but great skating has redeemed a lot of other defencemen over the years. Being a great skater should be a point in his favour, not a negative. And sure, he throws brain cramps, gets hemmed in sometimes, etc. But can you think of a rookie defenceman in the NHL who doesn’t?

More to the point, can you think of a Toronto Maple Leaf team in recent years which didn’t struggle a bit in its own end?

And we also have a very very competitive blueline this year, and people have been at cross-interests - feeling that another kid they like won’t get as much time if Gardiner is seen to do well. Like…. ohhhhh… Luke Schenn. And that makes it tough. We argue and say, but Luke’s only 22! Don’t give up on him! Which may be a completely viable argument.

But I think we need to keep these issues separate a bit. Gardiner could win the Calder. And maybe, depending on these next weeks, believe it or not Leaf fans…. maybe he should.

He’s 21. Straight into the NHL. +9. Got 7 points in his last 9 games. 20 minutes plus per game. Beautiful puck-moving defenseman. Rare as anything in the league. With that skating, he looks like he could get 40-50 points a year, and play for 20 years.

And get this. He never whines. Never seems to lose his composure on the ice. He never mouths off to the press. Never got bitter when sent to the press box or the AHL.

Gardiner for the Calder.

Go check out the Blue Chip Prospect link for more.