So lately the conversation has been about the Leafs unsustainable shooting and how it's likely to come crashing back to Earth. I see a lot of team year-to-year comparisons, but none looking at the trees in that forest and how they perform. What I did was set up a 12F and 6D roster for the Leafs as if it were healthy and with likely lineups: that means no Broll, Bodie, Smith, Fraser, and instead guys like Rielly, Orr, McLaren, etc... Why only 12 and 6? Because that's all that can play in a game and so that's all I care about when making overall estimations for season long performance.
Anyhow, what I did was to look up the players' career shooting and sh% averages, and extrapolate those out to "per 82" and "per game" numbers to find out what the Maple Leafs as a team would perform is every single individual player on the team performed to their career averages. Here's what I got:
|Player||Position||Career Games||Career Goals||Career Shots||Career Sh%||Shots/82||Goals/82||Shots/Game||Goals/Game|
So if we expected the Leafs players to all perform to their career averages (for Rielly I took his shot pace and gave him an average sh% for dmen) then as a team they should be peforming as such:
In reality, this season (and last season) the Leafs' numbers are:
Shots/Game: 26.8 (26.3)
Goals/Game: 3.3 (3.02)
SH%: 12.31% (11.48%)
So as a team the Leafs' overall shooting numbers are right in line with their paltry performance from last season, but due to shooting 26% above their combined career average their goal scoring is actually up 10% compared to last year, and 6% compared to their expected career output. Is this ridiculous pace going to continue? Of course not, but this data does show that the Leafs as a combination of individuals might be a slightly better than average (9.1%) shooting team.
I agree obviously.
Random Leafs chit chat.
Rielly, McLaren, other things.