Expected Career Shooting

Abelimages

So lately the conversation has been about the Leafs unsustainable shooting and how it's likely to come crashing back to Earth. I see a lot of team year-to-year comparisons, but none looking at the trees in that forest and how they perform. What I did was set up a 12F and 6D roster for the Leafs as if it were healthy and with likely lineups: that means no Broll, Bodie, Smith, Fraser, and instead guys like Rielly, Orr, McLaren, etc... Why only 12 and 6? Because that's all that can play in a game and so that's all I care about when making overall estimations for season long performance.

Anyhow, what I did was to look up the players' career shooting and sh% averages, and extrapolate those out to "per 82" and "per game" numbers to find out what the Maple Leafs as a team would perform is every single individual player on the team performed to their career averages. Here's what I got:

Player Position Career Games Career Goals Career Shots Career Sh% Shots/82 Goals/82 Shots/Game Goals/Game
Bolland F 342 73 503 14.51% 121 18 1.47 0.21
Bozak F 248 56 353 15.86% 117 19 1.42 0.23
Clarkson F 426 97 1033 9.39% 199 19 2.42 0.23
Kadri F 109 29 201 14.43% 151 22 1.84 0.27
Kessel F 514 190 1733 10.96% 276 30 3.37 0.37
Kulemin F 353 75 626 11.98% 145 17 1.77 0.21
Lupul F 541 168 1436 11.70% 218 25 2.65 0.31
McClement F 610 71 811 8.75% 109 10 1.33 0.12
McLaren F 75 4 36 11.11% 39 4 0.48 0.05
Orr F 432 12 165 7.27% 31 2 0.38 0.03
Raymond F 384 84 871 9.64% 186 18 2.27 0.22
van Riemsdyk F 252 70 634 11.04% 206 23 2.52 0.28
Franson D 253 23 397 5.79% 129 7 1.57 0.09
Gardiner D 97 7 97 7.22% 82 6 1 0.07
Gunnarsson D 234 12 238 5.04% 83 4 1.02 0.05
Phaneuf D 610 108 1732 6.24% 233 15 2.84 0.18
Ranger D 280 18 355 5.07% 104 5 1.27 0.06
Rielly D 8 1 16 6.25% 164 10 2 0.13
(12F) F 4286 929 8402 11.06% 1,799 207 21.94 2.52
(6D) D 1482 169 2835 5.96% 795 48 9.69 0.58
ALL 5768 1098 11237 9.77% 2,594 254 31.63 3.1

So if we expected the Leafs players to all perform to their career averages (for Rielly I took his shot pace and gave him an average sh% for dmen) then as a team they should be peforming as such:

Shots/Game: 31.63

Goals/Game: 3.1

SH%: 9.77%

In reality, this season (and last season) the Leafs' numbers are:

Shots/Game: 26.8 (26.3)

Goals/Game: 3.3 (3.02)

SH%: 12.31% (11.48%)

So as a team the Leafs' overall shooting numbers are right in line with their paltry performance from last season, but due to shooting 26% above their combined career average their goal scoring is actually up 10% compared to last year, and 6% compared to their expected career output. Is this ridiculous pace going to continue? Of course not, but this data does show that the Leafs as a combination of individuals might be a slightly better than average (9.1%) shooting team.

Links

Leafs Performance Level Statistically Unlikely to Continue

I agree obviously.

Odds and Ends

Random Leafs chit chat.

Thursday Leafs Notes

Rielly, McLaren, other things.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Join Pension Plan Puppets

You must be a member of Pension Plan Puppets to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Pension Plan Puppets. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker