A look at the 2013 Draft Rank Variation.

MyNHLDraft integrates a number different draft ranking sources and publishes a composite views of these rankings. The draft ranking output depends on these "experts" so take that as you will. Note they have the leafs drafting Fredrick Gauthier a 6'5" C. [Note I should also say I watch very little junior hockey aside from the memorial cup and so this is an exercise in pushing numbers to see if we can glean anything of interest].

I expanded MYNHLdraft sources and include 9 analysts (ISS, TSN, Future Considerations, ESPN, Button, McKeen's, Hockey News, Hockey Guys, Hockey Prospects and Hockey News). And below follows the consensus rankings as well as the expected draft position variation. And so the expected draft rank (based on these "experts"), the player, the position and their overall score is shown below. In addition, the variation (standard deviation) of the rank position variation is included. And the "Times in the top 30" is the number of times the player is ranked somewhere in the top 30 on the various reports. I excluded the TSN ranking data for this column as they only rank the top 11 overall players and not their top 30. That said, the highest score a player can receive in the Times in Top 30 is 8.

Rank Player Position Score Variation Times in Top 30
1 Jones RD 267 0.7 8
2 Mackinnon C 261 0.7 8
3 Drouin LW 255 0.5 8
4 Barkov C 239 0.5 8
5 Nichushkin C 232 1.3 8
6 Lindholm C 221 1.3 8
7 Monahan C 215 0.9 8
8 Nurse LD 196 4.6 8
9 Zadorov LD 177 2.9 8
10 Ristolainen RD 171 3.5 8
11 Shinkaruk LW 167 5.4 8
12 Domi C 142 6.7 8
13 Wennberg LW 120 6.7 8
14 Pulock RD 118 7.5 8
15 Mantha LW 117 5.8 8
16 Erne RW 113 8.3 7
17 Morrissey LD 105 6.6 8
18 Horvat C 103 5.4 8
19 Lazar C 97 7.4 8
20 Rychel LW 82 4.9 8
21 Gauthier C 73 5.5 7
22 Zykov LW 73 6.9 7
23 Hagg LD 66 8.0 6
24 Fucale G 50 7.2 5
25 Hartman RW 43 4.2 6
26 Burakowsky LW 40 5.6 5
27 Petan C 32 4.9 6
28 Dickinson LW 32 5.3 4
29 Bowey RD 32 6.6 3
30 Mueller LD 31 6.8 2
31 Klimchuk C 29 5.0 4
32 Compher C 19 3.8 3
33 Lehkonen RW 19 4.4 3
34 Santini RD 19 4.8 2
35 De La Rose C 11 2.5 2
36 Bigras LD 10 2.3 3
37 Morin LD 6 1.1 3
38 McCoshen LD 6 1.4 2
39 Dauphin C 5 1.7 1
40 Comrie G 4 1.0 2
41 Arnesson LD 4 1.3 1
42 Heatherington LD 4 1.3 1
43 Theodore LD 3 1.0 1
44 Mccarron RW 3 1.0 1
45 Poirier LW 2 0.7 1

We see for Seth Jones based on the 9 different studies has a 0.7 Std Dev in his position. That is not surprising but looking down the list, we see that Nurse's overall position varies greatly from analyst to analyst with a Std Dev of 4.6 positions and so he probable candidate to fall or rise 5 or more ranks depending on how the team values him. After, the top 10 there is a lot of variation in rankings so how they are drafted depends on how various team scouts rank them.

The 15 highest ranked players in the chart above are all found on the these 8 analysts lists. In fact, TSN top 11 players match the top 11 on this list with some variation in rank placement. After the top 15, there is some player drop off in "Times" as certain players do not make the top 30 for a specific analyst. Again, not too much interesting or surprising here except for a player like Klimchuk who is ranked high 20s four different times is beat out by players who have two or three high ranking. Finally these analysts have in total 45 different players so their maybe some second rounders included in the list. [The drop in std dev is an artifact as I assume they are drafted in position 31 by the analysts who did not draft them. If we have full rankings, the standard of deviation of rankings would continue to increase the further down the list we went].

That said, looking at the leafs 20 or 21st position, the players that could be on the board may very well be anyone below position 16 with Erne because of the high standard of deviation. And that player could very well be Gauthier. That said, team scouts may diverge wildly from these rankings and so aside from the top 7 overall players who have both high scores and low standard deviation there will be a few surprises draft day. is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of

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