Carlyle Coaching Myths Part 5: Shot Distance Redux - Now with 100% More Goaling

That's some mighty fine yelling Lou. - USA TODAY Sports

In the first incarnation of the Carlyle Coaching Myths Part 5, I looked at only shots totals and averages to see if the myth that Carlyle's system pushes shots to the outside was true or not. I concluded that it was not, but there was a lot of discussion about whether or not I fully captured the spirit of the myth seeing as how I didn't weight the shots based on distance or their likelihood to generate a goal. These were excellent suggestions so I decided to analyze them as them.

Rather than try and weight shots depending on their likelihood of becoming a goal like PPP user and all-around nice guy jeffgm has done in this FanPost, I decided to just skip that part and go right to tallying up goals that resulted from shots of a certain distance.

ES Goals Against Per Game by Distance (link to spreadsheet) (away goals and shots only)

Team Year 0-10 10-20 20-30 30+ Total
TML 2009-2012 0.21 0.85 0.42 0.67 2.15
TML 2013 0.25 0.92 0.46 1 2.63
NHL 2009-2013 0.38 0.75 0.36 0.46 1.95

And cumulatively:

Team Year 0-10 0-20 0-30 30+ Total
TML 2009-2012 0.21 1.06 1.48 0.67 2.15
TML 2013 0.25 1.17 1.63 1 2.63
NHL 2009-2013 0.38 1.13 1.49 0.46 1.95

So what this tells me is that the Leafs, whether pre- or post-Carlyle, have been pretty much league average in terms of allowing goals from the scoring chance area (which I'm defining for the purposes of this study as any shot under 30feet, but past 30ft there's a 50% jump in goals for the 2009-12 Leafs and a 117% jump for the 2013 Leafs under Carlyle which contributes to the 2013 Leafs allowing 0.68 more ES goals per game than league average over the last 5 seasons. That's a metric shit ton of goals.

Further, I calculated shooting percentages for the different distances:

Team Year 0-10 10-20 20-30 30+ Total
TML 2009-2012 12.92% 17.87% 11.27% 4.54% 8.65%
TML 2013 17.14% 17.05% 12.36% 5.30% 8.92%
NHL 2009-2013 18.56% 15.15% 9.48% 3.41% 8.06%

And cumulatively:

Team Year 0-10 0-20 0-30 30+ Total
TML 2009-2012 12.92% 16.59% 14.63% 4.54% 8.65%
TML 2013 17.14% 17.07% 15.42% 5.30% 8.92%
NHL 2009-2013 18.56% 16.15% 13.80% 3.41% 8.06%

So the Carlyle Leafs are worse than the Wilson Leafs at lowering shooting %s from every distance, and only better than league average inside of 10 feet (which is entirely dependent on 6 goals on 35 shots).

So to recap, as shown in the original post Carlyle's system doesn't limit shots under 30ft all that much relative to league average while giving up a ton at 30+ feet, doesn't limit goals under 30ft and allows a ridiculous amount at 30+ft.l, and doesn't suppress shooting % from anything past 10 feet.

If the myth wasn't busted before, it sure is now.

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