FanPost

Common Misconceptions: Revisited (Part 1of 2)

I read a fan post that was posted to PPP back on September 29th, 2011. It was titled “Common Misconceptions: How Much Should That Forward Score?”. I liked the article so much that I bookmarked it and always revert back to the article when looking at how the leafs players are doing and players on my BEAGMode in any of my EANHL series that I play. I’ve been diligently waiting for the “Common Misconceptions: How much should that Defenseman score?” follow up article, but seeing as it’s 2 years later and it hasn’t come, I decided to re-do BCapp’s theory, and follow up with a more accurate depiction of Forwards and Defenseman scoring.

I created my statistics a bit differently than Bcapp, as I looked at TOI/Game to better depict a top line, second line and third line player, as well as the division between defence pairings. So, theoretically a top line player should be in the top 30 in the NHL in TOI/G and so on and so forth for 2nd, and 3rd. I then organized the top 30, 60 and 90 by points and did this for the years 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13. I then found the Points Per Game and Goals Per Game for each group and multiplied them by 82 to simulate an 82 game season. This would eliminate injuries and outliers from the groups and give a better understand on what a true first line, second line and third line player should score if they were of GOOD, AVERAGE or POOR statistics. I did the same for defensemen however instead of top 30, I had to do top 60 to incorporate pairings.

So, in this article I will point out the stats and findings and in my second article I will relay what this means for the Maple Leafs and what we may or may have on our roster and what to expect from these players.

Here are my findings for the forwards.

Centres

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

85

68

56

62

52

45

51

38

30

Goals

32

26

23

25

19

17

22

15

12

Left Wing

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

78

60

51

52

39

33

34

23

19

Goals

31

28

24

22

16

16

13

11

8

Right Wing

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

78

61

48

54

40

34

36

23

18

Goals

31

27

22

23

18

16

15

11

8

Comments:


- Only Elite (top 10) Centers average over a point a game.
- Typical top 10 Forwards get 30+ goals and Top 40 Get 20+ goals
- Centers get more points than any forward position due in part to part to a higher TOI/G average than their other forward peers.
- A 1B-2B center system would typical net 120 points (68+52) which coincides with BCapps findings.
- The averages are quite accurate between mine and BCapps numbers with slight differences because I did not take injuries into account.

Here are my findings for Defenseman

Defenceman

1st Pairing

2nd Pairing

3rd Pairing

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Good

Average

Poor

Points

50

36

26

33

19

13

24

15

10

Goals

11

9

6

7

3

2

5

3

2

Comments

- A top offensive defenseman in the league should score 50 points and 10 goals.
- A poor first pairing defensemen should net on average 26 points and 6 goals (this takes into fact defence first defensemen and players playing outside of their pairing for example KOSTKA who would better fair out in 3rd pairing minutes.
- At least we should expect defenseman to score 1-2 goals a year and at least contribute 5-10 assists on the 3rd pairing.
- Some of the higher points than expected can be contributed to the fact that some lower pairing defenceman are given Power Play time and increase their points but not as much TOI/Game.

Please leave comments on your thoughts and I will be posting part 2 of this article with relations to current maple leafs and my thoughts on what we can expect.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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