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Projecting The Leafs Future Points Using Various Analytic Methods


Leaf Actual Results

The leafs actual points are 70 points (and with a 50% win rate on shootouts the leafs would have 67.5 points).


Fenwick Close

The Fenwick Close model is the most popular and has a 35% correlation to winning and 30% reliability to predicting future wins. Using this model, the leafs in the next 22 games are expected to generate 19.7 more points or 89.7 total points. Likens describes this model here.

P% model

This is a simplistic model of using the past win/loss record to predict future win/loss record and matches Fenwick Close model above about 55 to 60 games. Using this model, the leafs in the next 22 games are expected to generate 24.8 more points or 94.8 total points. SnarkD at fear the fin describes it here.


PDO "shot quality" model

The PDO model was developed by snarkD (at fear the fin) to better analyze teams that can sustain an elevated PDO throughout the season as described here. Using this model, the leafs in the next 22 games are expected to generate 27.4 more points or 97.4 total points. SnarkD at fear the fin describes it here. Further, I use the expected PDO of 101.4 I calculated here (and not the higher actual PDO of 101.9) as I expect the team to regress their PDO closer to the expected PDO.

The average of the Fenwick Close and PDO model

The Fenwick Close model assumes that all teams tends towards a PDO of 1000 or that shot quality does not exists. And the PDO "shot quality" model assumes that all teams have a 50% Fenwick Close value. Both models are an approximation to the reality and in particular to the leafs in this case. An improved approximation is generated from an average of the two models which suggest the leafs in the next 22 games are expected to generate 23.5 more points or 93.5 total points. [The average is a simplistic model and we can further optimize by weighting Fenwick Close higher or lower relative to PDO Shot quality instead of a simple 50/50 weighting]. If people are interested I will upload the spreadsheet I use for each of these methods.

Summary Of Leaf Point Projecting Using Various Methods


Future Points Projected Total Points
Fenwick Close Model 19.7 89.7
PDO Model 27.4 97.4
P% Model 24.8 94.8
Average Model (Fenwick/PDO) 23.5 93.5

Where The Leafs Will Finish

We should expect the leafs to finish with anywhere from 90 to 97 points with the highest probability being near 94 points. [Of course the team can always win or lose 10 in a row and finish outside of this range but the expectation is if history is predictive of the future then they will finish near 94 points. This is not always the case because a team may change their system or add a new player via trade or face an injury which will make the predicting the future on past history suspect]. Finally, there is perhaps more work that can be done to improve the existing analytic models.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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