FanPost

Community Project: Tracking Odd-Man Rushes

I mentioned it in the FTB (I spit in the face of LL) today, but I'm looking to get a few people together who don't mind re-watching games and doing a little data entry along the way. The idea would be to see if the Leafs' SH% is affected by the number of odd-man rushes they create/allow.

My theory is that the Leafs create an above-average number of odd-man rushes, which come with a much higher expected SH% than shots generated by sustained pressure (also referred to as secondary shots by Eric Tulsky) or shots generated off even-man rushes. Odd-man rushes begin at the offensive blueline, so if a backchecker catches up to the rush before then, it won't count.

In order to test this theory, I'll track several things:

1. Breakaways for/against

2. Breakaways GF/GA

3. 2-on-1s for/against

4. 2-on-1s GF/GA

5. 3-on-2s for/against

6. 3-on-2s GF/GA

In unison with standard shots for/against data, I'll use this information to determine the following:

1. What % of the Leafs’ shots come from odd-man rushes?

2. What % of the Leafs’ shots against come from odd-man rushes against?

3. What is the expected SH% of 2v1/3v2/breakaways?

4. What is the expected SH% of all other types of shots?

5. Using results from #1, #3 and #4, do rushes have a significant impact on the Leafs’ SH%?

I'll also need to know how many odd-man rushes the average team creates every game in order to figure out if the Leafs create a higher number of odd-man rushes than other teams. This is going to be a little more complicated. I'll need a ton more data unless I choose to cheat and assume that the Leafs' structure and defense allow an average number of odd-man rushes against, and just use that number instead.

There are still many holes in the methodology and I plan to fix them as I go, but I need the data first. I'm also choosing not to include the playoffs because actually the playoffs never happened and there was no game 7 and no 4-1.

What I need from you:

I don't have the time or energy to watch 100+ games. If you like re-watching games and don't mind doing a little data entry as you go, then I could really use your help. You don't need to watch a billion games, or even a million. watching even one game and recording the data would be very helpful and I'd appreciate it endlessly.

How it would work:

Using this google spreadsheet, claim stake to a game by saying so in the comments, sending me a PM or commenting on the google doc itself. I'll update the spreadsheet frequently, so it will be a running reference to which games are available. As you watch the game, keep track of the six (twelve) things I listed above and give me the information any way you want. I'll input the data myself into another google spreadsheet.

I'm very open to any recommendations.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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