I mentioned it in the FTB (I spit in the face of LL) today, but I'm looking to get a few people together who don't mind re-watching games and doing a little data entry along the way. The idea would be to see if the Leafs' SH% is affected by the number of odd-man rushes they create/allow.
My theory is that the Leafs create an above-average number of odd-man rushes, which come with a much higher expected SH% than shots generated by sustained pressure (also referred to as secondary shots by Eric Tulsky) or shots generated off even-man rushes. Odd-man rushes begin at the offensive blueline, so if a backchecker catches up to the rush before then, it won't count.
In order to test this theory, I'll track several things:
1. Breakaways for/against
2. Breakaways GF/GA
3. 2-on-1s for/against
4. 2-on-1s GF/GA
5. 3-on-2s for/against
6. 3-on-2s GF/GA
In unison with standard shots for/against data, I'll use this information to determine the following:
1. What % of the Leafs’ shots come from odd-man rushes?
2. What % of the Leafs’ shots against come from odd-man rushes against?
3. What is the expected SH% of 2v1/3v2/breakaways?
4. What is the expected SH% of all other types of shots?
5. Using results from #1, #3 and #4, do rushes have a significant impact on the Leafs’ SH%?
I'll also need to know how many odd-man rushes the average team creates every game in order to figure out if the Leafs create a higher number of odd-man rushes than other teams. This is going to be a little more complicated. I'll need a ton more data unless I choose to cheat and assume that the Leafs' structure and defense allow an average number of odd-man rushes against, and just use that number instead.
There are still many holes in the methodology and I plan to fix them as I go, but I need the data first. I'm also choosing not to include the playoffs because actually the playoffs never happened and there was no game 7 and no 4-1.
What I need from you:
I don't have the time or energy to watch 100+ games. If you like re-watching games and don't mind doing a little data entry as you go, then I could really use your help. You don't need to watch a billion games, or even a million. watching even one game and recording the data would be very helpful and I'd appreciate it endlessly.
How it would work:
Using this google spreadsheet, claim stake to a game by saying so in the comments, sending me a PM or commenting on the google doc itself. I'll update the spreadsheet frequently, so it will be a running reference to which games are available. As you watch the game, keep track of the six (twelve) things I listed above and give me the information any way you want. I'll input the data myself into another google spreadsheet.
I'm very open to any recommendations.