FanPost

The top forwards in the NHL today

I have never been totally sold on Corsi as a definitive measure of success. It always seemed to me that certain players might shoot less than others, certain players might allow other teams to shoot more but from less risky areas, but I get the idea and I get that higher is generally better than lower. What I wanted to do was try and look at something slightly more all encompassing, that could perhaps account for some of my concerns about Corsi while still trying to adjust a bit for PDO and then rank the NHL by that measure.

What I decided is that the only thing that an NHL team should truly care about is goal differential. It doesn't really matter if a guy has a GF/20 (goals for while he's on the ice per 20 minutes) of 2.00 if he he also has a GA/20 of 3.00. That guy costs you games. Similarly a guy who has an abysmal GF/20 of 0.3 could be very valuable if his GA/20 was 0.1. Using this line of thinking I looked at the league on an even strength basis and came up with four categories:

  • Diff - This is just the absolute differential of GF/20 minus GA/20. A higher number is better as it means, in 5v5 play, your team scored more frequently than your opponents while you were on the ice.
  • Team Diff - This looks at how big your differential was relative to the rest of your teammates. For example, if your team averaged a diff of +0.20 and you had a diff of +0.4 you outperformed the team. However, a guy who had a diff of +0.20 while his team was -0.4 really outperformed his team.
  • Opp Diff - How difficult your opponents were, based on their average differential while they were not playing against you
  • Adj. Team Diff - How big your differential was when adjusted for PDO compared to your team. This assumed 8% SH and 92% SV. The reason SV% is so high is that 5v5 SV% tends to be in about that range.
All the categories were evenly weighted and players were given totals of their std deviations (negative or positive) away from the mean in each category. Also I only looked at players that had played over 750 minutes of ice time this season, and only forwards for now. This resulted in a) PDOs higher than 1000 b) GF% higher than 50% c) 214 players (out of theoretically 360). Basically the conclusion you can draw is that skill players play more, and skill players have PDOs > 1000 when playing against less skilled players.
Also the averages were about: 0.81 GF/20, 0.76 GA/20, 0.05 Diff, 0.09 Team Diff, 0.01 Opp Diff, 0.05 Adj Team Diff, 1003 PDO
Here are the top 50 players:

0 Player Name Team TOI GF20 GA20 Diff TMDIFF OppDiff Adj Team Diff Score PDO
1 BENN, JAMIE Dallas 1013:25:00 1.263 0.77 0.493 0.808 0.045 0.42 8.74 1.035
2 SEGUIN, TYLER Dallas 1037:39:00 1.157 0.713 0.444 0.672 0.046 0.33 7.56 1.032
3 KUNITZ, CHRIS Pittsburgh 1034:25:00 1.16 0.696 0.464 0.829 0.013 0.51 7.53 1.03
4 JAGR, JAROMIR New_Jersey 1112:46:00 0.809 0.557 0.252 0.602 0.017 0.53 6.15 1.008
5 KOPITAR, ANZE Los_Angeles 1067:07:00 0.9 0.431 0.469 0.506 0.025 0.33 5.83 1.016
6 BURNS, BRENT San_Jose 862:37:00 1.182 0.626 0.556 0.537 0.027 0.21 5.66 1.02
7 COUTURE, LOGAN San_Jose 773:10:00 0.983 0.621 0.362 0.428 0.041 0.28 5.66 1.045
8 SEDIN, HENRIK Vancouver 976:10:00 0.84 0.533 0.307 0.461 0.037 0.29 5.44 1.024
9 PENNER, DUSTIN Washington 762:31:00 1.128 0.446 0.682 0.465 0.044 -0.03 5.35 1.023
10 VANEK, THOMAS Montreal 1050:43:00 1.123 0.838 0.285 0.571 0.047 0.11 5.21 1.019
11 KREIDER, CHRIS NY_Rangers 859:06:00 0.978 0.605 0.373 0.571 0.006 0.38 5.01 1.015
12 TURRIS, KYLE Ottawa 989:01:00 1.153 0.728 0.425 0.55 0.035 0.11 5.01 0.996
13 PERRY, COREY Anaheim 1051:21:00 1.275 0.647 0.628 0.459 0.022 0.06 4.44 1.03
14 VORACEK, JAKUB Philadelphia 939:26:00 0.958 0.596 0.362 0.57 -0.002 0.37 4.44 1.015
15 GARBUTT, RYAN Dallas 757:41:00 0.897 0.686 0.211 0.357 0.039 0.21 4.28 0.973
16 SMITH, CRAIG Nashville 970:57:00 0.906 0.742 0.164 0.449 0.024 0.30 4.18 1.038
17 HUDLER, JIRI Calgary 983:04:00 0.814 0.671 0.143 0.466 0.026 0.28 4.15 1.004
18 LANDESKOG, GABRIEL Colorado 1096:05:00 1.058 0.62 0.438 0.442 0.034 0.03 4.10 1.014
19 SEMIN, ALEXANDER Carolina 903:29:00 0.93 0.686 0.244 0.427 0.02 0.28 4.08 1
20 GETZLAF, RYAN Anaheim 992:39:00 1.31 0.665 0.645 0.459 0.024 -0.05 3.98 1.006
21 SEDIN, DANIEL Vancouver 1007:15:00 0.794 0.576 0.218 0.256 0.039 0.21 3.93 1.027
22 CROSBY, SIDNEY Pittsburgh 1175:17:00 1.072 0.834 0.238 0.439 0.006 0.36 3.82 1.021
23 BACKLUND, MIKAEL Calgary 1006:48:00 0.715 0.675 0.04 0.294 0.031 0.34 3.69 1.005
24 KESSEL, PHIL Toronto 1236:12:00 1.035 0.874 0.161 0.566 0.01 0.27 3.69 1.053
25 TOEWS, JONATHAN Chicago 1118:18:00 1.18 0.805 0.375 0.223 0.033 0.14 3.63 1.021
26 SHARP, PATRICK Chicago 1106:31:00 1.139 0.723 0.416 0.285 0.028 0.11 3.58 1.042
27 NICHUSHKIN, VALERI Dallas 937:33:00 0.917 0.555 0.362 0.414 0.024 0.10 3.57 1.013
28 TARASENKO, VLADIMIR St.Louis 794:45:00 1.057 0.503 0.554 0.46 0.007 0.09 3.53 0.997
29 BERGERON, PATRICE Boston 980:47:00 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.443 -0.004 0.22 3.52 1.016
30 UPSHALL, SCOTTIE Florida 863:09:00 0.742 0.672 0.07 0.316 0.029 0.28 3.43 1.004
31 LADD, ANDREW Winnipeg 1018:06:00 0.904 0.825 0.079 0.264 0.033 0.27 3.42 1.032
32 OSHIE, TJ St.Louis 1002:30:00 0.998 0.579 0.419 0.305 0.031 0.03 3.37 1.009
33 THORNTON, JOE San_Jose 1049:08:00 1.106 0.705 0.401 0.289 0.018 0.16 3.32 0.985
34 SCHWARTZ, JADEN St.Louis 966:02:00 1.077 0.559 0.518 0.37 0.023 -0.01 3.30 0.98
35 POMINVILLE, JASON Minnesota 1052:37:00 0.703 0.475 0.228 0.369 0.009 0.28 3.17 1.003
36 TAVARES, JOHN NY_Islanders 927:44:00 1.056 0.905 0.151 0.371 0.027 0.16 3.13 1.037
37 PAVELSKI, JOE San_Jose 1045:45:00 0.899 0.497 0.402 0.335 0.012 0.15 3.08 1.015
38 HOSSA, MARIAN Chicago 900:13:00 1.066 0.689 0.377 0.139 0.042 -0.01 2.89 1.006
39 HORNQVIST, PATRIC Nashville 913:51:00 0.81 0.963 -0.153 0.08 0.041 0.36 2.77 1
40 MACARTHUR, CLARKE Ottawa 888:34:00 1.08 0.743 0.337 0.289 0.032 -0.03 2.66 1.004
41 FROLIK, MICHAEL Winnipeg 1020:54:00 0.96 0.842 0.118 0.241 0.03 0.14 2.54 1.001
42 PARISE, ZACH Minnesota 880:18:00 0.75 0.568 0.182 0.172 0.024 0.20 2.54 1.01
43 TLUSTY, JIRI Carolina 811:42:00 0.838 0.739 0.099 0.197 0.03 0.17 2.44 0.983
44 IGINLA, JAROME Boston 1082:19:00 1.072 0.499 0.573 0.479 -0.01 0.03 2.42 1.029
45 JOKINEN, JUSSI Pittsburgh 927:21:00 1.014 0.733 0.281 0.377 -0.012 0.30 2.39 0.98
46 LITTLE, BRYAN Winnipeg 1051:03:00 0.913 0.894 0.019 0.142 0.037 0.17 2.34 0.963
47 POULIOT, BENOIT NY_Rangers 809:05:00 0.766 0.519 0.247 0.337 -0.007 0.26 2.17 1.024
48 DESHARNAIS, DAVID Montreal 986:14:00 0.852 0.649 0.203 0.378 0 0.20 2.16 1.022
49 WHEELER, BLAKE Winnipeg 1048:34:00 0.896 0.82 0.076 0.198 0.029 0.14 2.14 1.049
50 KING, DWIGHT Los_Angeles 961:51:00 0.811 0.561 0.25 0.166 0.015 0.17 2.13 0.995

A lot of these guys have really high PDOs, so make of that what you will. But all of them have done a good job for their team of driving goal differential relative to their teams and relative to the difficulty of their opponents. Phil Kessel is #24 for what it's worth. Here's the bottom 50, with a surprise name at dead last. Or maybe not a surprise if you believe in compete level.

0 Player Name Team TOI GF20 GA20 Diff TMDIFF OppDiff Adj Team Diff Score PDO
165 BONINO, NICK Anaheim 751:03:00 0.959 0.639 0.32 0.052 -0.023 -0.18 -2.26 0.995
166 ANISIMOV, ARTEM Columbus 844:58:00 0.805 0.781 0.024 -0.04 -0.011 -0.05 -2.33 1.014
167 TALBOT, MAXIME Colorado 938:45:00 0.682 0.597 0.085 0.039 0 -0.24 -2.36 1.021
168 READ, MATT Philadelphia 868:09:00 0.668 0.806 -0.138 -0.052 -0.004 -0.01 -2.39 0.995
169 HANSEN, JANNIK Vancouver 902:39:00 0.62 0.775 -0.155 -0.21 0.011 -0.03 -2.41 1.001
170 LUCIC, MILAN Boston 1046:06:00 0.994 0.516 0.478 0.019 -0.018 -0.33 -2.42 0.986
171 RICHARDSON, BRAD Vancouver 816:22:00 0.711 0.808 -0.097 -0.093 0.009 -0.14 -2.48 0.98
172 COUTURIER, SEAN Philadelphia 978:22:00 0.654 0.797 -0.143 -0.061 -0.004 -0.02 -2.49 1.006
173 HODGSON, CODY Buffalo 876:01:00 0.502 0.845 -0.343 -0.084 0.014 -0.05 -2.60 1.037
174 COYLE, CHARLIE Minnesota 866:39:00 0.669 0.831 -0.162 -0.289 0.026 -0.16 -2.69 0.969
175 KULEMIN, NIKOLAI Toronto 832:18:00 0.649 0.817 -0.168 -0.054 0 -0.07 -2.69 1.004
176 MILLER, DREW Detroit 784:59:00 0.535 0.688 -0.153 -0.086 -0.018 0.09 -2.69 1.012
177 WINGELS, TOMMY San_Jose 924:53:00 0.822 0.757 0.065 -0.119 -0.015 -0.05 -2.72 0.991
178 STALBERG, VIKTOR Nashville 775:32:00 0.567 0.928 -0.361 -0.213 -0.004 0.16 -2.84 0.979
179 BRODZIAK, KYLE Minnesota 961:50:00 0.52 0.582 -0.062 -0.146 0.017 -0.26 -2.86 1.001
180 SIMMONDS, WAYNE Philadelphia 913:08:00 0.832 0.81 0.022 0.107 -0.03 -0.06 -2.88 0.971
181 MONAHAN, SEAN Calgary 864:49:00 0.671 0.948 -0.277 -0.121 -0.004 0.03 -2.93 0.958
182 NYSTROM, ERIC Nashville 921:10:00 0.651 1.042 -0.391 -0.237 0.006 0.09 -2.94 0.967
183 RAYMOND, MASON Toronto 1016:51:00 0.767 0.826 -0.059 0.069 -0.024 -0.08 -3.12 1.01
184 SODERBERG, CARL Boston 782:37:00 0.946 0.664 0.282 0.09 -0.042 -0.16 -3.15 1.024
185 GAGNER, SAM Edmonton 865:58:00 0.739 1.201 -0.462 -0.32 0.024 -0.03 -3.28 0.981
186 SKINNER, JEFF Carolina 840:00:00 0.809 0.952 -0.143 -0.063 -0.026 0.05 -3.29 0.99
187 SUTTER, BRANDON Pittsburgh 862:21:00 0.441 0.533 -0.092 -0.054 -0.024 -0.02 -3.35 1.013
188 BOEDKER, MIKKEL Phoenix 1047:16:00 0.668 0.745 -0.077 -0.267 0.018 -0.26 -3.36 1.017
189 OTT, STEVE St.Louis 1014:21:00 0.394 0.848 -0.454 -0.263 0.015 -0.01 -3.42 0.994
190 SCHENN, BRAYDEN Philadelphia 933:02:00 0.836 0.815 0.021 0.091 -0.037 -0.08 -3.45 1.01
191 KADRI, NAZEM Toronto 1015:00:00 0.847 0.985 -0.138 -0.062 -0.007 -0.16 -3.52 0.994
192 GREENING, COLIN Ottawa 849:27:00 0.565 0.895 -0.33 -0.317 0.006 0.00 -3.55 0.999
193 BACKSTROM, NICKLAS Washington 1039:07:00 0.693 1.001 -0.308 -0.193 -0.008 0.02 -3.61 0.945
194 EAKIN, CODY Dallas 941:49:00 0.658 0.977 -0.319 -0.368 0.017 -0.09 -3.69 1.024
195 SPEZZA, JASON Ottawa 909:01:00 0.968 1.254 -0.286 -0.294 0.003 -0.06 -3.83 0.974
196 RUUTU, TUOMO New_Jersey 828:00:00 0.652 1.014 -0.362 -0.343 0.006 -0.02 -3.91 1.018
197 THOMPSON, NATE Tampa 772:50:00 0.543 0.569 -0.026 -0.128 -0.043 0.02 -4.20 1.042
198 O_REILLY, RYAN Colorado 1073:17:00 0.876 0.969 -0.093 -0.388 0.024 -0.37 -4.25 0.971
199 WINNIK, DANIEL Anaheim 844:47:00 0.71 0.71 0 -0.316 0.01 -0.38 -4.38 0.999
200 STEMPNIAK, LEE Pittsburgh 950:52:00 0.589 1.073 -0.484 -0.514 0.029 -0.11 -4.39 0.988
201 MCGINN, JAMIE Colorado 940:58:00 0.871 0.935 -0.064 -0.259 0.004 -0.32 -4.39 0.975
202 LETESTU, MARK Columbus 782:20:00 0.588 0.69 -0.102 -0.109 -0.035 -0.08 -4.56 1.007
203 RICHARDS, MIKE Los_Angeles 864:08:00 0.648 0.833 -0.185 -0.429 -0.002 -0.15 -4.83 0.995
204 BERNIER, STEVE New_Jersey 802:39:00 0.374 0.772 -0.398 -0.369 -0.02 0.09 -4.92 1.026
205 MICHALEK, MILAN Ottawa 929:34:00 0.904 1.269 -0.365 -0.424 0.004 -0.12 -4.96 1.035
206 COLE, ERIK Dallas 845:08:00 0.639 0.923 -0.284 -0.377 -0.007 -0.10 -4.97 1.006
207 LUPUL, JOFFREY Toronto 996:42:00 0.743 0.963 -0.22 -0.179 -0.019 -0.21 -5.27 1.004
208 UMBERGER, RJ Columbus 887:59:00 0.721 0.833 -0.112 -0.294 -0.011 -0.30 -5.41 0.955
209 HEATLEY, DANY Minnesota 883:40:00 0.566 0.815 -0.249 -0.348 -0.013 -0.22 -5.76 0.959
210 ELLER, LARS Montreal 949:17:00 0.485 0.927 -0.442 -0.424 -0.025 -0.03 -6.33 0.985
211 CLARKSON, DAVID Toronto 750:00:00 0.48 0.747 -0.267 -0.2 -0.039 -0.18 -6.40 1
212 MCCLEMENT, JAY Toronto 806:04:00 0.422 0.67 -0.248 -0.176 -0.041 -0.22 -6.64 0.992
213 CHIASSON, ALEX Dallas 773:51:00 0.698 1.241 -0.543 -0.615 0.003 -0.16 -6.71 0.962
214 OVECHKIN, ALEX Washington 1012:19:00 0.573 1.087 -0.514 -0.601 -0.011 -0.19 -7.51 0.999

It's pretty amazing how bad Ovechkin is at driving GF for his team at even strength. Anyways, the point of all this is to point out how many Leafs are in the bottom 50. Part of that may be due to Carlyle's system, but a lot also has to do with the types of players they are. If Lupul and Kadri aren't driving GF/20 then their GA/20 makes them huge liabilities.

Also, I would like to think that using a methodology like this could help teams to identify who is a relative value on their team and who is a liability. Clarkson, for example, has never been particularly effective at driving GF/20 throughout his career. This year is extra bad, but most of his production drop-off is actually due to less PP time. There are a lot of guys on the top 50 list who aren't paid that highly, who are on crappy teams, who might have been a much better option for way less money.

PensionPlanPuppets.com is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Toronto Maple Leafs and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editor of PensionPlanPuppets.com.

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