So we all do a lot of complaining about the Leafs and how they suck, but I don't see a lot of options being thrown out there. I decided to take a look at all forwards and their combined stats from 2008 to 2013. It obviously misses this year since it is not yet complete (and so Hockey Analysis hasn't included it in the compressed data), but it should give a good idea of who some of the consistently good Corsi forwards have been.
- All players must have played 3,000 even strength minutes
- Only 5v5 counts
- CF20 and CA20 were treated as separate things - the goal was to try and figure out who is both good offensively and defensively, not just who had a good net Corsi
- All stats were viewed as standard deviations away from the mean of the group of players that qualified for the study
- CF20 and CA20 were adjusted by Teammate Quality, Opponent Quality, and Zone Start Quality - all of those stats individually had half the weighting of the absolute CF20 and CA20. 1.5x the weighting in total.
|Player Name||Salary||Adj CF20||Adj CA20|
|WILLIAMS, JUSTIN||$ 3,650,000.00||2.08||1.06|
|BACKES, DAVID||$ 4,500,000.00||2.03||0.71|
|KOPITAR, ANZE||$ 6,800,000.00||2.01||0.45|
|MOSS, DAVID||$ 2,100,000.00||1.94||0.74|
|LEGWAND, DAVID||$ 4,500,000.00||1.69||0.72|
|ERAT, MARTIN||$ 4,500,000.00||1.67||0.73|
|STEEN, ALEXANDER||$ 5,800,000.00||1.57||0.85|
|PAVELSKI, JOE||$ 6,000,000.00||1.57||0.36|
|PERRY, COREY||$ 8,625,000.00||1.52||0.92|
|GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL||$ 3,000,000.00||1.51||0.43|
|KESLER, RYAN||$ 5,000,000.00||1.48||0.80|
|BOOTH, DAVID||$ 4,250,000.00||1.41||0.38|
|BERGENHEIM, SEAN||$ 2,750,000.00||1.41||0.96|
|HORNQVIST, PATRIC||$ 4,250,000.00||1.38||0.74|
|KUNITZ, CHRIS||$ 3,850,000.00||1.35||0.73|
|LADD, ANDREW||$ 4,400,000.00||1.32||0.50|
|HORCOFF, SHAWN||$ 5,500,000.00||1.31||0.01|
|HEMSKY, ALES||$ 5,000,000.00||1.31||0.30|
|GETZLAF, RYAN||$ 8,250,000.00||1.29||1.67|
|HANZAL, MARTIN||$ 3,100,000.00||1.25||1.08|
|PENNER, DUSTIN||$ 2,000,000.00||1.19||0.27|
|O_REILLY, RYAN||$ 5,000,000.00||1.17||0.85|
|KENNEDY, TYLER||$ 2,350,000.00||1.07||0.83|
|BRODZIAK, KYLE||$ 2,833,333.00||1.00||0.21|
The list of players who were at least 1 standard deviation away from the mean in terms of Adjusted CF20 are shown (while still having a positive Adjusted CA20). Of that list, David Legwand, David Moss, Ales Hemsky, and Dustin Penner are all UFAs.
All still have a CF REL that is positive for this season, and even Penner, who would have a big asterisk beside his name, has managed to have a strong CF REL since being traded to the Capitals.
Of the four, Moss and Penner could be good bets since they likely won't sign for lots of money elsewhere and cannot command 4 or 5 year terms. Penner has also seen his ice time decrease with the Capitals so it doesn't seem likely they will push to re-sign him. Legwand could be the most attractive of the bunch for the Leafs, due to their troubles at centre, but with a general lack of 2nd/3rd line centres available in UFA this year his price might be prohibitively high. I don't think we need Hemsky unless we are trading Lupul.
P.S. I left Grabovski off the list of potential UFAs due to his anger at the Leaf situation. Anger that I never understood. The guy signed a 5 year deal, played one year and got paid for the whole deal. Seems pretty sweet to me.