MoneyPuck says the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 65 percent chance of winning their first round series against the Capitals.  His full chart of probabilities and the big wheel of future round chances is where it always is if you want to dig deeper.

Dom is a little more conservative, with 56 to 44 as the split in chances.

He also makes this really interesting observation:

But this is my favourite chart:

He’s showing a lot of that decline in the Captials’ chances going to the Penguins, which makes sense.  They are almost a lock to beat out Columbus, and they will play the winner of the Toronto - Washington series.

But this is all so nerve wracking.  It’s tough to even lift your head for a moment and look at the second round. It’s tough to consider it.

Could it happen? Will Phil Kessel get a playoff series at the ACC again? How is that going to feel?

Ahhhhhh. I’m not sure I want to look that far ahead.  Next game.  Home ice against Washington.  Rookies versus vets.  MoneyPuck gives the Leafs a 46 percent chance to win that game.

What do you think?  Forget the series, let’s just think about Wednesday’s game.  Will the Leafs win?

Who will win game four?

Leafs in OT183
Caps in OT40
Leafs in regulation501
Caps in regulation162
Maple Leafs Playoffs