So yesterday I ran down the numbers on a new statistic that's targeted at determining who the best defensive defensemen are in the NHL. I referred to it as the SDI or Shut Down Index, and to briefly summarize it compares a blue liner's Corsi REL QoC, Corsi REL QoT, OZ%, Corsi ON/60, and Penalty Differential to their peers in a given season using the number of standard deviations above or below average in each category (with a 20% weighting on Penalty Differential).

I was pretty happy with the results but there were a few inquisitive minds that seemed to misunderstand the point of the exercise. I am NOT looking to determine who the best all-around defender is in the NHL with this statistic. I am well aware that many top D men will not fare well in these rankings as a result of their higher OZ% and Corsi REL QoT. What I was trying to determine, and this is the key part, is who is doing the best job while carrying a heavy defensive work-load in the NHL.

Today I plan on carrying the work forward a little bit further - in an effort to assess who the best Shut Down D are in the NHL right now, and secondly giving you all a glimpse of how the Toronto Maple Leafs have fared since 2007-08 in this regard.

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How often have we heard the idea that defensive blue liners are a "dime a dozen" in the NHL? Probably far more than we should frankly. As a skill set, the defensive defender's repertoire is difficult to master at a high level, and in some ways it is even more difficult to quantify effectively. Knowing where to be on the ice, when to be there, and actually being physically capable of playing such a role is extremely demanding. The best defenders take the lion's share of a team's tough minutes, and prevent the best of the opposition from doing much damage offensively. This conveniently allows other less capable defensemen on their team to be "sheltered" from the proverbial storm and makes everyone look better in the process.

Daniel Wagner of the Vancouver Sun has recently been applying this very concept - which he terms 'enabling' - in his breakdown of the Vancouver Canucks usage of 4th line centre Manny Malholtra. He is counted upon to do the dirty work on the ice in the defensive zone so the Canucks more offensively gifted players can spend more time on offense doing what they do best - scoring goals and producing points both on the ice and eventually in the standings. This is basically the same concept I am attempting to get at only for defenders.

So how do we describe the guys that face the toughest minutes? Well generally speaking they'll be counted on to play on the Penalty Kill, and they'll be expected to face the best lines the opposition has to throw on the ice at even strength - for the method I plan on using I'm going to focus on the latter. Using behindthenet.ca we can form a pretty detailed picture of what it takes to be considered a defender in the shut down mold, and even more importantly, who the best players are in that role.

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A little while ago I was in discussion with Cam Charron about Shot Blocking metrics and the problems of normalization, and he directed me to work by Daniel Wagner over at the Score and a recent posting by Derek Zona over at Copper and Blue, which in turn prompted me to dissect the shot blocking abilities of the Leafs roster. I did the actual data analysis over a week ago, but a busy end of semester schedule has prevented me from getting things typed out for your perusal.

One of the main issues with shot blocks is the numbers generally favour players that are on the ice without control of the puck. Skaters with poor puck possession skills tend to climb the rankings of the shot blocking stat sheet - with the most noteworthy example, Ryan Johnson, making an appearance on Coaches Corner before being dumped from the NHL for his less than stellar play.

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So a couple of days ago, after watching yet another Leafs loss in 86" of gory glory, I caught myself briefly agreeing with people that think making a trade of one of our young D men makes sense going forward. Luke Schenn, Keith Aulie, and Jake Gardiner had all made significant gaffes in the loss to the Panthers, and while the goaltending didn't help, I kept asking myself - are we really prepared to wait for these kids to develop into reliable D men?

The reason this jumped to the forefront is actually not a result of their defensive play at all, but more the play we're witnessing out of Phil Kessel, his linemate Joffrey Lupul, and the likes of Tyler Bozak, Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, Tim Connolly, and to a lesser extent Nikolai Kulemin (who is in the midst of a definite down year).

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Ok so as I was perusing various statistical pages last night, I stumbled across some interesting team statistics that have received nary a mention in the mainstream press. Why? you might be asking yourself, would we want to know anything that isn't quoted in the mainstream press?

Well folks, the main reason you might want to know is because the press is fond of spinning things a certain way to convince you a team is or isn't playing well at a certain time of year. This helps fit with narratives that the writers construct as they carry you through the season. They may not even be doing it consciously. I know I do it, I'm aware of the spin I put on things, but I usually own up to it when it's pointed out.

For instance, I'll gladly harp on players I've touted as possible successes whenever they play well during the regular season. Similarly, members of the MSM will often point at poor aspects of the Leafs game, and highlight them as if they mean horrible things for the state of hockey in Toronto. Read on for some examples.

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Reflect back to the start of last season.  Think back to when Clarke MacArthur first showed up in Leaf land, fresh from signing a one year, $1.1 million dollar contract that was a $300 K reduction from his previous contract.  

MacArthur had gone to arbitration as an RFA with the Atlanta Thrashers, having just finished a 2009-10 NHL campaign that saw him post 16 goals and 35 points in 81 games. He went in with the mindset that if he and his agent expected the arbitrator to come up with a reasonable number, he'd have to high ball the team, who would then low ball them back, and end up somewhere in the middle.  Unfortunately the gamble didn't work - at least not exactly.  The Thrashers (and current Leafs Director of Player Personnel Rick Dudley - then Thrashers GM) walked away from MacArthur's arbitration without tabling an offer, making the young winger an unrestricted free agent.

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So a couple of days ago if you read the From The Branches, or if you keep tabs on what Gabe Desjardins is up to at BehindTheNet.ca (or Arctic Ice Hockey), you may have noticed that the Fenwick Percentages for the 2011-12 season were added to the mix of advanced stats that are maintained on his site.

This is great news for those of you that are interested in explanations of what they've seen so far this young NHL season.  People like numbers when they can summarize things quickly.  It helps when they know what the heck they mean, but being able to compare teams quickly and accurately in a fashion that's meaningful is really what makes things in sports stats worthwhile (in my opinion).

We've obviously got the point system for that as far as the standings go, but the problem with using points and standings is that we don't have an easy way to account for strength of schedule, competition, good or bad refereeing, luck, etc.  It's hard to figure out half way though the year which teams are good, and which teams are just lucky.

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By this point last year, Nikolai Kulemin had posted 4 goals and 5 assists on 26 shots, during a "slow start" en route to a 30 goal 57 point season.  So far this year he has 2 goals and 4 assists on 25 shots, during an even SLOWER start, en route to lord knows what kind of production.  And yet, all is not lost.

Last year Kulemin was "cold" early, netting only 1 goal through his first 10 games, before heating up in November and potting 8 goals in 13 games.  The funny thing about that is, he had 3 goals through the first 3 games of November, but then he bunched his production of the other 5 goals into another 3 games throughout the month.  He only scored goals in 6 of the 13 games, so it wasn't like he was amazingly consistent to produce those 8 goals.  Through the first 2 months last year he had goals in only 7 of his first 16 games.  

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