If that 2.86% holds true for the Leafs should they make the playoffs, then the futures market gave Toronto a 58% chance of making the playoffs prior to the season and are still giving the Leafs a 28% chance of making the playoffs. (This implies that the Leafs are a .523 team, which is an overestimate.) This isn't a perfect futures market, and the people who set the lines hedge a bit so that they'll make money even if any unlikely outcome occurs (this hedge is known as the 'vig'.) If I remove the vig (as Tango suggests in the comments below), I get 39% and 17%, respectively. Are these gamblers nuts?! Didn't we just hear that the Leafs have a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs?
