FanPost

A Call to Arms and Optimism: The Statistical Aftermath of a Blowout

Editor's Note: Fleet Fox put together another interesting fanpost. This time he looked at the odds that a team that has been blown out will win their next game in regulation.

I've taken a look at every blowout tallied so far this season to calculate the Leafs' chances of coming back strong against the Sabres. (Yes, just try to forget for a minute that our next game is against the Sabres.) For the purposes of this little study, I've looked at every game with a goal differential of four goals or more, and then tracked the results of each team's following game looking for a trend in a teams' ability to rebound. I used a four-goal differential because it's the amount we lost by against Philly. Results after the jump.        

OK, so I've got a table below to support my findings, but the important facts are simple:

The percentage of blown out teams that have rebounded to win is 47%, while they stand a 14% chance of obtaining at least one point in an overtime/shootout loss, and a 39% chance of losing in regulation.

In the eyes of a Leafs fan to whom the proverbial glass always appears half full, these numbers indicate that the Leafs stand a 61% chance of picking up at least a point. To the rest of us, they mean that a win is mathematically unlikely, even if it weren't the Sabres we were facing.

But another statistic that I think is useful for the sake of comparison is that on average, these blown-out teams have won 48% of their total games this year (average number of total wins so far this year/average number of games played). That is to say that our chances of winning our next game are 1% lower than they would be if we hadn't been blown out. This is a negligible difference, and given the margin for error in all of this, insignificant. Again, if you're someone for whom the glass is half full, you can look at statistic and say "hey last game doesn't matter!" I guess the old cliché that players use in all the interviews actually applies: you can't dwell on the past - you've just got to focus on the game at hand.

"We must go forward, not backward, upward, not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom."

For the sake of interest, the team doing the blowing out will win 59% of the following games, losing 9% in overtime or a shootout, and 32% in regulation.

Anyway, here's the stuff:

 

Blowout Date

#

Teams

Score

Next Game Results + Date

Oct. 3

1

Chi.

4

L, 3-2 to Detroit, Oct. 8

Fla.

0

L, 7-2 to Carolina Oct. 9

Oct. 3

2

Car.

2

W, 2-1 over Tampa Oct. 5

Bos.

7

L, 6-1 to Anaheim, Oct. 8

Oct. 7

3

Mon.

1

L, 3-2 to Edmonton, Oct. 10

Van.

7

W, 4-3 over Dallas, Oct. 11

Oct. 8

4

Ana.

6

W, 3-2 over Philadelphia, Oct. 10

Bos.

1

W, 4-3 over New York Islanders, Oct. 10

Oct. 9

5

Fla.

2

L, 3-2 to Tampa, Oct. 12

Car.

7

L, 5-2 to Tampa, Oct. 10

Oct. 12

6

Tor.

2

L, 4-1 to Colorado, Oct. 13

N.Y.R.

7

W, 4-2 over Los Angeles, Oct. 14

Oct. 12

7

Edm.

6

L, 4-3 to Chicago, Oct. 14

Nsh.

1

L, 6-0 to Dallas, Oct. 14

Oct. 13

8

Buf.

6

W, 6-3 over New York Islanders, Oct. 16

Det.

2

W, 5-2 over Los Angeles, Oct. 15

Oct. 14

9

Nsh.

0

L, 3-1 to Chicago, Oct. 15

Dal.

6

L, 3-0 to Boston, Oct. 16

Oct. 15

10

T.B.L.

1

L, 4-1 to Pittsburgh, Oct. 16

Ott.

7

W, 301 over Montréal, Oct. 16

Oct. 16

11

St.L.

5

L, 5-1 to Pittsburgh, Oct. 20

Ana.

0

L, 4-2 to Dallas, Oct. 21

Oct. 19

12

S.J.S.

7

L, 5-2 to Tampa, Oct. 22

N.Y.R.

3

L, 4-2 to New Jersey, Oct. 22

Oct. 20

13

St.L.

1

W, 3-1 over Minnesota, Oct. 23

Pitt.

5

W, 3-2 over Florida, Oct. 23

Oct. 22

14

N.Y.I.

1

OTL, 3-2 to Washington, Oct. 24

Mtl.

5

W, 5-4 over New York Rangers, Oct. 24

Oct. 24

15

Fla.

1

L, 4-3 to Ottawa, Oct. 28

Phi.

5

L, 4-1 to San Jose, Oct. 25

Oct. 25

16

Clb.

2

W, 3-2 over Calgary, Oct. 28

L.A.K.

6

OTL, 2-1 to San Jose, Oct. 28

Oct. 28

17

Mtl.

1

L, 3-2 to Chicago, Oct. 30

Pitt.

6

W, 4-3 over Columbus, Oct. 30

Oct. 30

18

Van.

2

W, 3-0 over Colorado, Nov. 1

Ana.

7

OTL, 3-2 to Phoenix, Oct. 31

Oct. 31

19

Buf.

0

W, 3-0 over New York Islanders, Nov. 4

N.Y.I.

5

W, 6-3 over Edmonton, Nov. 2

Oct. 31

20

Car.

1

L, 5-1 to San Jose, Nov. 1

Phi.

6

W, 6-2 over Tampa, Nov. 2

Oct. 31

21

Fla.

4

W, 3-0 over Carolina, Nov. 4

St. L.

0

OTL, 2-1 to Calgary, Nov. 5

Nov. 1

22

S.J.S.

5

W, 3-2 over Columbus, Nov. 4

Car.

1

L, 3-0 to Florida, Nov. 4

Nov. 2

23

T.B.L.

2

W, 2-1 over Toronto, Nov. 3

Phi.

6

W, 5-2 over Buffalo, Nov. 6

Nov. 5

24

Nsh.

0

W, 3-1 over Los Angeles, Nov. 7

Ana.

4

W, 4-3 over Phoenix, Nov. 7

Nov. 7

25

Det.

1

W, 9-1 over Columbus, Nov. 11

Tor.

5

L, 5-2 to Minnesota, Nov. 10

Nov. 10

26

Van.

1

L, 3-1 to Detroit, Nov. 12

St.L.

6

L, 3-1 to Nashville, Nov. 12

Nov. 11

27

Det.

9

W, 3-1 over Vancouver, Nov. 12

Clb.

1

W, 3-2 over Anaheim, Nov. 13

Nov. 12

28

Ott.

1

OTL, 2-1 to New York Rangers, Nov. 14

Phi.

5

L, 3-2 to Buffalo, Nov. 14

Nov. 13

29

L.A.K.

0

W, 2-1 over Tampa Bay, Nov. 14

Atl.

7

W, 3-2 over Edmonton, Nov. 15

Nov. 14

30

Van.

8

W, 5-2 over Colorado, Nov. 20

Col.

2

W, 3-2 over Calgary Nov. 17

Nov. 18

31

Fla.

6

W, 2-1 over Detroit, Nov. 20

Buf.

2

OTL, 2-1 to Boston, Nov. 20

Nov. 19

32

Pitt.

2

W, 3-2 over Florida, Nov. 23

Ott.

6

W, 5-3 over Buffalo, Nov. 21

Nov. 19

33

Chi.

7

W, 5-2 over Edmonton, Nov. 21

Cal.

1

W, 2-1 over Phoenix, Nov. 25

Nov. 25

34

Chi.

7

L, 3-0 to Anaheim, Nov. 27

S.J.S.

2

W, 5-4 over Edmonton, Nov. 27

Nov. 27

35

N.Y.R.

1

L, 8-3 to Pittsburgh, Nov. 28

T.B.L.

5

OTL, 4-3 to Dallas, Nov. 28

Nov. 28

36

N.Y.I.

1

W, 4-1 over Atlanta, Dec. 3

N.J.D.

6

L, 5-2 to Vancouver, Dec. 2

Nov. 28

37

Car.

1

L, 302 to Washington, Nov. 30

Buf.

5

W, 3-0 over Toronto, Nov. 30

Nov. 28

38

N.Y.R.

3

L, 5-2 to Pittsburgh, Nov. 30

Pitt.

8

W, 5-2 over New York Rangers, Nov. 30

Nov. 28

39

Edm.

3

W, 4-1 over Detroit, Dec. 3

Van.

7

L, 4-2 to San Jose, Nov. 29

Nov. 30

40

Cal.

5

L, 2-1 to Phoenix, Dec. 3

Nsh.

0

OTL, 5-4 to Minnesota, Dec. 2

Dec. 3

41

Fla.

2

OTL, 2-1 to Atlanta, Dec. 5

Wsh.

6

W, 8-2 over Philadelphia, Dec. 7

Dec. 4

42

Bos.

1

W, 7-2 over Toronto, Dec. 5

Mtl.

5

W, 3-1 over Philadelphia, Dec. 7

Dec. 5

43

Tor.

2

W, 5-2 over Atlanta, Dec. 7

Bos.

7

W, 5-2 over Toronto, Dec. 10

Dec. 5

44

Wsh.

8

W, 3-0 over Tampa Bay, Dec. 7

Phi.

2

L, 3-1 to Montréal, Dec. 7

Dec. 5

45

N.Y.I.

0

L, 6-2 to Philadelphia, Dec. 8

T.B.L.

4

L, 3-0 to Washington, Dec. 7

Dec.7

46

Col.

4

L, 1-0 to Minnesota, Dec. 9

St.L.

0

W, 1-0 over Detroit, Dec. 9

Dec. 8

47

N.Y.I.

2

L, 3-2 to Toronto, Dec. 9

Phi.

6

L, 2-0 to Ottawa, Dec. 10

Dec. 13

48

T.B.L.

0

L, 7-4 to Nashville, Dec. 15

Chi.

4

W, 3-0 over St. Louis, Dec. 16

Dec. 14

49

Fla.

7

W, 4-3 over Atlanta, Dec. 16

N.Y.I.

1

W, 2-1 over New York Rangers, Dec. 16

Dec. 15

50

Phi.

1

OTL, 3-2 to Pittsburgh, Dec. 17

Pitt.

6

W, 3-2 over Philadelphia, Dec. 17

Dec. 21

51

N.J.D.

4

L, 4-1 to Washington, Dec. 26

Pitt.

0

W, 8-2 over Ottawa, Dec. 23

Dec. 21

52

St.L.

7

W, 2-1 over Calgary, Dec. 23

Edm.

2

L, 3-1 to Minnesota, Dec. 23

Dec. 23

53

Ott.

2

W, 3-2 over Buffalo, Dec. 26

Pitt.

8

L, 4-3 to Toronto, Dec. 27

Dec. 23

54

Ana.

0

L, 5-2 to San Jose, Dec. 26

Phe.

4

W, 3-2 over Los Angeles, Dec. 26

Dec. 27

55

Van.

5

OTL, 3-2 to Phoenix, Dec. 29

Cal.

1

W, 4-1 over Edmonton, Dec. 28

Dec. 30

56

Phi.

6

OTL, 2-1 to Boston, Jan. 1

N.Y.R.

0

W, 2-1 over Carolina, Dec. 31

Dec. 30

57

Atl.

0

OTL, 4-3 to Buffalo, Jan. 1

Bos.

4

W, 2-1 over Philadelphia, Jan. 1

Dec. 31

58

N.J.D.

1

W, 5-3 over Minnesota, Jan. 2

Chi.

5

W, 5-2 over Anaheim, Jan.3

Jan. 3

59

Pitt.

2

W, 5-2 over Atlanta, Jan. 5

Fla.

6

L, 3-2 to Toronto, Jan. 5

 

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