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Lightning at Leafs: Some Numbers Before the Game

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Tampa Bay Lightning
@ Toronto Maple Leafs

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2010, 7:00 PM EST
Air Canada Centre


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Dan Ellis vs. Jonas Gustavsson

The Leafs have inexplicably sent Luca Caputi to the Marlies to bring up Joey Crabb. Crabb has 9 goals in the AHL in 22GP but also has the worst +/- on the Marlies at -3. He'll slot into the second line with Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin. Per Jonas Siegel the Leafs are scratching John Mitchell and Brett Lebda.

Tampa's an interesting case, at 73GF and 78GA we'd expect them to be below a .500 points percentage based on the pythagorean. For those of you who hate stats; it doesn't make sense that they get outscored and win more than they lose. Observe:

GF GA Pyth Pts% Pyth Pts Actual Pts% Act. Pts Difference
TOR (22GP) 48 61 .428 19 .431 19 0 Pts, 0.003%
TBL (24GP) 73 78 .522 25 .604 29 +4 Pts, 0.082%

Essentially Tampa has two more wins than we'd expect so far. Who knows, maybe we'll get Lady Luck on our side tonight. If Toronto can stay out of the penalty box and keep Steven Stamkos from lighting them up on the power play they might be able to slow this game down and grind out a win.

If Toronto plays sloppy undisciplined hockey like they did against Buffalo they're going to give Stamkos a wonderful gift at home ahead of Christmas.