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Marcel Müller. Mueller? Mueller?

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Marcel Muller in Germany, via <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/koelnerhaie/4203434474/" target="new">Holner-Kaie</a>
Marcel Muller in Germany, via Holner-Kaie

Per Capgeek Marcel Müller's (transliterated as 'Mueller') contract is two years for $2.25M total, broken down like this:

Season AHL Salary NHL Salary P. Bonuses S. Bonus Cap Hit
10-11 $67,500 $900,000 $212,500 $90,000 $1,112,500
11-12 $67,500 $900,000 $212,500 $90,000 $1,112,500

He's on a two way deal which suggests he'll see some time with the Marlies, at least to start the season. Born in July of 1988 Mueller turned 22 this week. So what should we expect from him? Behindthenet.ca has 'League Translations' which attempt to link different leagues to the NHL. Basically they look at how a player scored in his last year in a league and then his next year in the NHL and track the decline in scoring from that player.

Behindthenet has the German league (the DEL) at 0.52, meaning a player who had 100 points in the DEL last year could be expected to be somewhere around a 52 point player in the NHL. Additionally a young guy like Müller is also four or five years away from his physical peak and could likely grow as a player.

Season GP G A Pts NHLe G NHLe A NHLe Pts
08-09 41 11 14 25 11 15 26
09-10 53 24 32 56 19 26 45

"NHLe G" would be his goal output if he played 82 games with Behindthenet's observed 0.52 equivalency.  Personally I think this seems high so let's temper our expectations and treat it like an upper bound. Müller's a 22 year old who likes to play physical and we got him for free. I'm ok with this.