The mouth breathers (Authors edit) Hockey fans are out and while they can't knock the Leafs' record thus far they have instead switched to knocking our top prospect, Nazem Kadri. From the mainstream media (newspaper and televsion commentator alike), to bloggers, to your average Leafs fan on the street, people are saying things along the lines of: "Whats the deal with Kadri? If he doesn't do something, and I mean a big something, soon than I think thats it." or "Burke seems to be running out of patience with this kid." This is complete and utter nonsense, because Kadri is *young*.
Now I could show you that Kadri has produced fine relative to his draft class but that has been done already by Willis on Leafs Nation. Instead I will look at Burke's history with first rounders through his GM years in Vancouver, Anaheim, and Toronto (not including Hartford because he was only there one year).
The data set:
|
Vancouver |
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|
Picked by Burke |
Started under Burke |
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|
Year |
Player |
Pick |
Year |
Player |
Pick |
|
1998 |
Bryan Allen |
4th |
1996 |
Josh Holden |
12th |
|
1999 |
Daniel Sedin |
2nd |
|
|
|
|
1999 |
Henrik Sedin |
3rd |
|
|
|
|
2000 |
Nathan Smith |
23rd |
|
|
|
|
2001 |
RJ Umberger |
16th |
|
|
|
|
2003 |
Ryan Kesler |
23rd |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anaheim |
|||||
|
Picked by Burke |
Started under Burke |
||||
|
Year |
Player |
Pick |
Year |
Player |
Pick |
|
2005 |
Bobby Ryan |
2nd |
2003 |
Ryan Getzlaf |
19th |
|
2006 |
Mark Mitera |
19th |
2008 |
Corey Perry |
28th |
|
2007 |
Logan MacMilan |
19th |
|
|
|
|
2008 |
Jake Gardiner |
17th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Toronto |
|||||
|
Picked by Burke |
Started under Burke |
||||
|
Year |
Player |
Pick |
Year |
Player |
Pick |
|
2009 |
Nazem Kadri |
7th |
2008 |
Jake Gardiner |
17th |
|
2011 |
Tyler Biggs |
22nd |
2008 |
Joe Colborne |
16th |
|
2011 |
Stuart Percy |
25th |
|
|
|
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To look at these players I looked at their production in their first NHL season by goals per game (GPG), points per game (PPG), and average time on ice per game (ATOI). For their rookie season, I noted how many years had past since their draft (ie RNH would be first this year and Hall would be second). Here are all the players (except for Biggs and Percy as they were drafted this year) sorted by how many seasons had passed between their draft and rookie year:
|
|
|
|
First Season |
Goal Break out Season |
Points Break Out Season |
Notes |
|||||||
|
Year |
Player |
Pick |
Age (as of Jan 1st) |
Season After Draft |
GP |
GPG |
PPG |
ATOI |
Age (as of Jan 1) |
Season After Draft |
Age (as of Jan 1) |
Season After Draft |
|
|
2003 |
Ryan Kesler |
23rd |
19 |
1st |
28 |
0.07 |
0.18 |
10:42 |
26 |
8 |
24 |
6 |
He lost out on his second year in the NHL due to the lockout |
|
1999 |
Henrik Sedin |
3rd |
20 |
2nd |
82 |
0.11 |
0.35 |
13:31 |
Not a big goal scorer |
25 |
7 |
(He broke out even more at 29, 11th year after draft) |
|
|
2009 |
Nazem Kadri |
7th |
20 |
2nd |
29 |
0.1 |
0.41 |
15:47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999 |
Daniel Sedin |
2nd |
20 |
2nd |
75 |
0.27 |
0.45 |
13:00 |
26 |
8 |
26 |
8 |
(He broke out even more (for points) at 29, 11th year after draft) |
|
1998 |
Bryan Allen |
4th |
20 |
3rd |
6 |
0 |
0 |
9:20 |
Became NHL regular at 23 (6 seasons after being drafted) |
Became top 4 dman (<20 minutes the following season) |
|||
|
1996 |
Josh Holden |
12th |
21 |
3rd |
30 |
0.07 |
0.2 |
12:44 |
Never happened |
He never became an NHL regular (60 total NHL games) |
|||
|
2005 |
Bobby Ryan |
2 |
20 |
3rd |
23 |
0.22 |
0.43 |
11:16 |
21 |
4 |
21 |
4 |
While Bobby Ryan didn't even make the team to start his 4th year post draft, it was rumoured that he was threatening a trade if they did not bring him up AND that he was being kept down for cap reasons |
|
2003 |
Corey Perry |
28th |
20 |
3rd |
56 |
0.23 |
0.45 |
11:34 |
22 |
5 |
23 |
6 |
He had an even bigger break out last year (26 and 9th year post draft) |
|
2003 |
Ryan Getzlaf |
19th |
20 |
3rd |
57 |
0.25 |
0.68 |
12:35 |
20 |
3 |
22 |
5 |
His goal scoring has been consistent since his rookie season |
|
2008 |
Joe Colborne |
16th |
21 |
3rd |
1 |
0 |
1.00 |
18:41 |
Still a prospect |
He's point per game! Wooo! |
|||
|
2008 |
Jake Gardiner |
17th |
21 |
4th |
2 |
0 |
0 |
12:50 |
Still a prospect |
|
|||
|
2000 |
Nathan Smith |
23rd |
21 |
4th |
2 |
0 |
0 |
5:16 |
Never happened |
He never became an NHL regular (26 total NHL games) |
|||
|
2001 |
RJ Umberger |
16th |
23 |
5th |
73 |
0.27 |
0.52 |
13:14 |
23 |
5 |
25 |
7 |
He did 3 years of NCAA hockey (2 years after being drafted) and then went to the Canucks intending to attempt to make the roster, but due to contract disputes sat out the season. He didn't enter the league under Burke. As well his goal breakout was at 2 |
|
2007 |
Logan MacMilan |
19th |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
Never happened |
Still hasn't made the NHL in his 5th year after being drafted and is now a Flames "prospect" |
|||
|
2006 |
Mark Mitera |
19th |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
Never happened |
Still hasn't made the NHL in his 6th year after being drafted and is now a Habs "prospect" |
|||
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So the first question is when did these guys make the NHL and how does Kadri compare?
via i.imgur.com
As you can see, Kadri (the red rectangle) had his rookie season pretty early, relative to the others. Burke usually waits longer before he brings these guys to the NHL. Similarly for age, only Ryan Kesler was younger than him in his rookie season.
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The next question is how does he compare in his rookie season production? Here are the GPG and PPGs of rookie seasons for the forwards in this list who made the NHL (minus Colborne and his one game):
via i.imgur.com
via i.imgur.com
As you can see Kadri's goal scoring is a tad low and his point scoring is middle of the pack. Considering he is one of the younger guys in the list I am very happy with that.
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Finally, the most important question, when did these guys break out?
|
Goal Scoring |
||||
|
Year Drafted |
Player |
Pick |
Breakout Year Age |
Season after Draft |
|
2005 |
Ryan Kesler |
23rd |
26 |
8 |
|
1999 |
Daniel Sedin |
2nd |
26 |
8 |
|
1996 |
Corey Perry |
28th |
22 |
5 |
|
2001 |
RJ Umberger |
16th |
23 |
5 |
|
2008 |
Bobby Ryan |
2nd |
21 |
4 |
|
2007 |
Ryan Getzlaf |
19th |
20 |
3 |
|
|
|
Average |
23.00 |
5.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Point Scoring |
||||
|
Year Drafted |
Player |
Pick |
Breakout Year Age |
Season after Draft |
|
1999 |
Daniel Sedin |
2nd |
26 |
8 |
|
1998 |
Henrik Sedin |
3rd |
25 |
7 |
|
2001 |
RJ Umberger |
16th |
25 |
7 |
|
2005 |
Ryan Kesler |
23rd |
24 |
6 |
|
1996 |
Corey Perry |
28th |
23 |
6 |
|
2007 |
Ryan Getzlaf |
19th |
22 |
5 |
|
2008 |
Bobby Ryan |
2nd |
21 |
4 |
|
|
|
Average |
23.71 |
6.14 |
As you can see most of these players didn't break out until 23-24 for either goal or point scoring in their 5th-7th season.
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So where does that leave us? Well Kadri had his rookie season as early, or earlier, than all but one first rounder Burke has ever dealt with (Kesler). Even so, his rookie season compares fine to the other forwards, with middle of the pack point scoring and slightly low goal scoring. Most importantly, the average forward on this list broke out for goals at 23 (5.5 seasons after being drafted) and at 23.71 (6.14 season after being drafted) for points. Further except for Getzlaf's goal scoring breakout year, all breakout years happened at 21 or older and 4th season post draft or later. Kadri, at 21 and in his 3rd season post draft, is doing fine developmentally and probably will *not* reach his full offensive potential for another couple years. We definitely should *not* be calling him a bust AND we shouldn't be concerned if he doesn't yet produce that much this year.
