clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

This is What Regression to the Mean Looks Like

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

You didn't think the Leafs would continue to shoot at 12.5% all year did you? That was the team shooting percentage about their game in Columbus last Thursday; a game in which the Maple Leafs scored 4 goals on 18 shots. Everyone knew that was a fluke occurrence and that a regression to the mean was in store for the Leafs, everyone didn't think that would be the reality only two games later.

Over the past 3 seasons the average team shooting percentage in the NHL has been 9.18%. After 1 goal in over 7 periods of hockey, the Leafs team shooting % has now fallen to 10.84%, and will likely continue to fall until it reaches somewhere around what should be their overall season average of 9.50-9.75%. So what does that mean for Leafs fans? Prepare to see a couple more low scoring games for the Leafs in the near future.

But Skinny, you say, many teams are able to win games in which they only score a couple of goals. Yes, this is true. However these teams possess something the Leafs do not; good goaltending. Because you see....

Leafs Have Monster Problems in Goals - James Mirtle at the Globe and Mail

Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Jonas (The Monster) Gustavsson was beaten three times on 21 shots in what became a 5-1 loss to the Florida Panthers, as the third-year Swede looked nervous and often out of position before he was yanked for spotting the visitors a 3-zip lead by the second period.

This was his first start in nearly a week, but it could be his last for a while.

Follow the link to keep reading Mirtle's take on the Leafs goaltending situation. More links after the jump.

Leafs Links

What if There Was a Centennial and Nobody Noticed?

1967ers with the interesting tale of the Tecumsehs and the Blue Shirts and the 100 year anniversary that isn't.

Kick the F-ing Door Down

Puck Buddys' own Andrews interviews Patrick Burke, Brian's son and Brendan's brother.

Who's the Real Number 2 in Toronto?

Number 2 is right. They stink.

Game #15 in 10

11 - At least we weren't shut out.

The Dion Phaneuf Revivial

Don't look now. Dion has no points in his last 5 games. Speaking of the Captain,

The 10 Best Body Checks of Dion Phaneuf's Career

The Score brings the pain.

Hey Leafs

Ginger Snowflake has a message for the Leafs to head while the puck is in the defensive zone.

Introducing: STAJAN-WATCH

Congrats to Matt on being the 8th most searched buy-out contract on Capgeek.

Other Links

Success Stories from the NHL's Opening Month

DGB with some early season triumphs.