FanPost

Checking in on the Kids: Dmytro Timashov

Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

It's time to check in on another 2015 Leafs draft pick! My post on Mitch Marner starts with a bit of an introduction to my goals for these posts, as well as an explanation of my qualifications (spoiler alert: I don't have any). If you haven't already done so, give that article a read (if you are really opposed to reading about Mitch Marner for some reason, just read the first four paragraphs) and then head back here.

Today we'll be looking at the Leafs' 5th-round pick, Swedish-Ukrainian forward Dmytro Timashov. Timashov was generally regarded as a steal on draft day, and his play this season in both the QMJHL and the World Junior Championship has made his draft position seem even more surprising.

Timashov ranked 21st on PPP's Top 25 Under 25 list before the season started. Also, if you haven't read this Maple Leafs Hot Stove article by Not Norm Ullman, you should do that first, if only so you know what the hell a "Nitro Mysteron" is.

Timashov had a promising draft season and is having a very good draft+1 season so far. But does he look like NHL material? Let's find out!

Note: Stats in this article do not include games played yesterday (Feb. 5). Timashov did not play yesterday so his stats are up to date. Also, there is a discrepancy between theqmjhl.ca, who has Timashov at 19 goals and 53 assists, and prospect-stats.com, who has him at 20 goals and 52 assists. I'll be using the prospect-stats.com numbers here because I noticed the discrepancy right before posting, and recalculating all the data I got from prospect-stats.com would be way too much work. Sorry!

Dmytro Timashov vs History!

Let's start by seeing how Timashov's scoring rate compares with other draft+1 seasons in the QMJHL from the previous six seasons (2009-10 through 2014-15):

Name

Season

GP

G

A

P

P/GP

Draft Pos

Jonathan Drouin

2013

46

29

79

108

2.35

1 (3)

Anthony Mantha

2013

57

57

63

120

2.11

1 (20)

Nikolaj Ehlers

2014

51

37

63

100

1.96

1 (9)

Jonathan Huberdeau

2011

37

30

42

72

1.95

1 (3)

Conor Garland

2014

67

35

94

129

1.93

5 (123)

Dmytro Timashov

2015

40

20

52

72

1.8

5 (125)

Anthony Duclair

2013

59

50

49

99

1.68

3 (80)

Ivan Barbashyov

2014

57

45

50

95

1.67

2 (33)

Mikhail Grigorenko

2012

33

30

24

54

1.64

1 (12)

Gabriel Dumont

2009

62

51

42

93

1.5

5 (139)

Martin Frk

2012

56

35

49

84

1.5

2 (49)

Martin Réway

2013

43

20

42

62

1.44

4 (116)

Tomas Jurco

2011

48

30

38

68

1.42

2 (35)

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

2011

46

32

33

65

1.41

4 (96)

Nick Sörensen

2013

44

31

30

61

1.39

2 (45)

Émile Poirier

2013

63

43

44

87

1.38

1 (22)

Stats in this table are from eliteprospects.com

Timashov's scoring pace this season puts him ahead of guys like Anthony Duclair, Mikhail Grigorenko, and Tomas Jurco, but behind the top-tier players like Drouin, Mantha, and Ehlers. You'll notice that most of the guys ahead of him were selected in the first round, with the exception of Conor Garland. Garland is an interesting case because he was not drafted in his first year of eligibility, and ended up being selected just 2 spots ahead of Timashov in the 2015 draft, after he put up his 1.93 P/GP season. If you're wondering how a guy who put up elite scoring numbers in his draft+1 season slipped all the way to 123rd overall, it likely has a lot to do with the fact that he's 5'8" and 163 lbs.

Which brings us to the matter of size. Timashov is another "undersized" prospect in the Leafs' system, standing either 5'9" (according to theqmjhl.ca) or 5'10" (according to pretty much every other place I've checked). I discussed the height issue in my post on Jeremy Bracco and determined that Bracco's draft+1 scoring pace is quite good compared to other short (below 5'10") players who made the NHL. Timashov is scoring at a better rate than Bracco (albeit in a different league) and is either the same height or an inch taller, so there doesn't seem to be much to worry about there.

Furthermore, Timashov is quite heavy for his height. The QMJHL website lists him at 189 lbs, Elite Prospects has him at 187, and Hockey DB has him at 192. Here are some current NHL players who are 5'9" or 5'10" and weigh 185 lbs or more:

Name

Height

Weight

Michael Cammalleri

5'9"

185

John-Michael Liles

5'10"

185

Kyle Palmieri

5'10"

185

Tomas Tatar

5'10"

185

Ryan Callahan

5'10"

186

Torey Krug

5'9"

186

Mathieu Perreault

5'10"

188

Zac Rinaldo

5'10"

188

Tyson Barrie

5'10"

190

Jaden Schwartz

5'10"

190

Seth Griffith

5'9"

191

Brian Campbell

5'10"

192

Max Domi

5'10"

198

Rich Clune

5'10"

207

Stats in this table are from NHL.com

That isn't an exhaustive list, but I think it does a decent job of showing that putting on some weight goes a long way toward making up for a lack of height. Also, bear in mind that Timashov is only 19 years old, so while he probably won't do much more growing vertically, he shouldn't have much trouble adding more weight. If he can get his weight up to Max Domi territory, it'll be hard to see his size as much of a detriment.

Dmytro Timashov vs The Present!

Now let's see how Timashov's season compares to other draft+1 players in the Q this year. (If you're wondering why Conor Garland isn't included in this section when he was drafted just before Timashov, it's because he was drafted in his second year of eligibility, so he's technically in his draft+2 season now).

We'll start with good ol' reliable points per game:

Name

Age

GP

G

1A

2A

P

Sh

Sh%

P/GP

Dmytro Timashov

18.956

40

20

34

18

72

95

21.053

1.8

Anthony Beauvillier

18.271

30

24

14

13

51

154

15.584

1.7

Anthony Richard

18.737

48

34

28

13

75

207

16.425

1.563

Evgeny Svechnikov

18.874

35

22

17

15

54

116

18.966

1.543

Timo Meier

18.937

34

19

20

11

50

205

9.268

1.471

Nicolas Roy

18.608

45

32

20

13

65

185

17.297

1.444

Daniel Sprong

18.499

16

9

9

5

23

79

11.392

1.438

Alex Barre-Boulet

18.321

48

28

28

13

69

146

19.178

1.438

Dennis Yan

18.422

44

28

13

18

59

135

20.741

1.341

Manuel Wiederer

18.816

39

22

14

15

51

113

19.469

1.308

Stats in this section are from prospect-stats.com

Timashov's scoring rate is the best out of all draft+1 players in the QMJHL right now. His shooting percentage is quite high for someone who isn't known as an especially good shooter, so that is probably inflating his point production a bit. It's possible that he just doesn't shoot unless he thinks he has a very good chance of scoring, but there's almost certainly a decent helping of luck there as well.

Onward to primary points (goals + primary assists) per game:

Name

Age

GP

G

1A

Prim. P

Prim. P/GP

Dmytro Timashov

18.956

40

20

34

54

1.35

Anthony Richard

18.737

48

34

28

62

1.292

Anthony Beauvillier

18.271

30

24

14

38

1.267

Alex Barre-Boulet

18.321

48

28

28

56

1.167

Nicolas Roy

18.608

45

32

20

52

1.156

Timo Meier

18.937

34

19

20

39

1.147

Daniel Sprong

18.499

16

9

9

18

1.125

Evgeny Svechnikov

18.874

35

22

17

39

1.114

Mathieu Joseph

18.597

45

25

17

42

0.933

Dennis Yan

18.422

44

28

13

41

0.932

Timashov continues to lead his draft class even if we remove secondary assists from the mix. His reputation as a playmaker seems to be supported by his primary assist production. In fact, let's take a quick look at how his primary assist production compares to his peers:

Name

Age

GP

1A

1A/GP

Dmytro Timashov

18.956

40

34

0.85

Kay Schweri

18.715

20

12

0.6

Timo Meier

18.937

34

20

0.588

Alex Barre-Boulet

18.321

48

28

0.583

Anthony Richard

18.737

48

28

0.583

Daniel Sprong

18.499

16

9

0.563

Dylan Montcalm

18.97

49

24

0.49

Evgeny Svechnikov

18.874

35

17

0.486

Anthony Beauvillier

18.271

30

14

0.467

Filip Chlapik

18.285

35

16

0.457

Timashov is pretty thoroughly outpacing his peers in primary assists. For comparison, Mitch Marner's production rate in the OHL is 0.892 1A/GP, and Jeremy Bracco's is 0.611 1A/GP. As we saw in the Marner article, a good chunk of his points are produced on the power play, so his even strength numbers don't look quite as good. Is that the case for Dmytro?

Name

GP

ES G

ES 1A

ES 2A

ES Prim. P

ES P

ES Prim. P/GP

ES P/GP

Dmytro Timashov

40

18

23

8

41

49

1.025

1.225

Timo Meier

34

14

15

8

29

37

0.853

1.088

Daniel Sprong

16

6

7

0

13

13

0.813

0.813

Anthony Richard

48

21

14

6

35

41

0.729

0.854

Manuel Wiederer

39

15

12

9

27

36

0.692

0.923

Nicolas Roy

45

21

10

6

31

37

0.689

0.822

Evgeny Svechnikov

35

12

12

11

24

35

0.686

1

Anthony Beauvillier

30

15

5

5

20

25

0.667

0.833

Alex Barre-Boulet

48

19

13

5

32

37

0.667

0.771

Jean-Christophe Beaudin

40

14

12

11

26

37

0.65

0.925

The above table is sorted by ES Prim. P/GP, by which measure Timashov handily bests his peers. He's also well ahead if we sort by ES P/GP.

Just to make sure you understand how good Timashov's even strength scoring is, let's look at the 15 best ES Prim. P/GP rates among draft+1 players in the whole CHL this season:

Name

League

GP

ES G

ES 1A

ES 2A

ES Prim. P

ES P

ES Prim. P/GP

ES P/GP

Dmytro Timashov

QMJHL

40

18

23

8

41

49

1.025

1.225

Dylan Strome

OHL

35

17

16

10

33

43

0.943

1.229

Travis Konecny

OHL

42

14

24

12

38

50

0.905

1.19

Timo Meier

QMJHL

34

14

15

8

29

37

0.853

1.088

Daniel Sprong

QMJHL

16

6

7

0

13

13

0.813

0.813

Mitchell Marner

OHL

37

12

16

7

28

35

0.757

0.946

Anthony Richard

QMJHL

48

21

14

6

35

41

0.729

0.854

Brayden Burke

WHL

51

17

20

11

37

48

0.725

0.941

Jeremy Bracco

OHL

36

13

13

6

26

32

0.722

0.889

Cameron Hebig

WHL

43

17

14

5

31

36

0.721

0.837

Manuel Wiederer

QMJHL

39

15

12

9

27

36

0.692

0.923

Nicolas Roy

QMJHL

45

21

10

6

31

37

0.689

0.822

Evgeny Svechnikov

QMJHL

35

12

12

11

24

35

0.686

1

Giorgio Estephan

WHL

51

19

16

5

35

40

0.686

0.784

Zachary Senyshyn

OHL

47

24

8

4

32

36

0.681

0.766

Scoring rates vary a bit between leagues, so take this information with a grain of salt. Scoring in the OHL is generally regarded to be more difficult than it is in the QMJHL (although the gap doesn't seem to be all that big) so Dylan Strome's production rate may actually be more impressive. Still, it's clear that Timashov's even strength production is elite. Not just "elite as far as 5th-round picks go," but legitimately elite.

Of course, we shouldn't forget that Timashov is rocking a shooting percentage of 21% this season, so his 18 even strength goals are probably a bit high. But if you were worried that he is, to quote Mr. MacKeen's MLHS article, "just another kid from the Q that racks up a million power-play points, but can't play worth a damn at five on five" then you can stop worrying now. He can play worth at least two damns at five on five. Possibly even three!

(Also, how cool is it that 3 of the top 10 players on that list are Leafs prospects? Pretty darned cool, I'd wager.)

But maybe Dmytro is just getting a crazy amount of ice time, and that's inflating his numbers?

Name

GP

eTOI

eG/60

e1A/60

e2A/60

ePrim. P/60

eP/60

Dmytro Timashov

40

22.43

1.337

2.274

1.204

3.611

4.815

Anthony Richard

48

23.213

1.831

1.508

0.7

3.339

4.039

Anthony Beauvillier

30

23.828

2.014

1.175

1.091

3.19

4.281

Evgeny Svechnikov

35

21.536

1.751

1.353

1.194

3.104

4.298

Timo Meier

34

22.4

1.497

1.576

0.867

3.072

3.939

Dennis Yan

44

19.093

2

0.928

1.286

2.928

4.214

Alex Barre-Boulet

48

24.044

1.456

1.456

0.676

2.911

3.587

Nicolas Roy

45

24.499

1.742

1.088

0.708

2.83

3.538

Daniel Sprong

16

24.425

1.382

1.382

0.768

2.764

3.531

Manuel Wiederer

39

20.948

1.616

1.028

1.102

2.644

3.746

Martins Dzierkals

41

18.843

1.553

1.087

1.087

2.64

3.728

Nope! His eG/60 isn't amazing, but he makes up for it with an obscenely good e1A/60 which gives him both the best ePrim. P/60 and the best eP/60 in his draft class. Prospect-stats.com only has TOI estimates for all situations in the QMJHL and even strength in the OHL, so I can't directly compare Timashov's per-60 numbers to Marner's or Bracco's. Marner's ES ePrim. P/60 is currently 2.902 and Bracco's is 2.636; given that 76% of Timashov's primary points have been scored at even strength, I suspect his ES Prim. P/60 would hold up pretty well.

(You may have noticed that the per-60 table has 11 players instead of 10. That's so we can have an appearance by our pal Martins Dzierkals. Hi, Martins!)

So Timashov can score. But is he a horrible defensive liability? He has a +20 rating so far this season, including a +9 rating in his 29 games with the Quebec Remparts, who have a negative goal differential. That's encouraging, but +/- is not a very meaningful stat. Unfortunately we don't have Corsi or Fenwick stats available for the CHL, so we'll have to look at GF%. GF% has some of the same problems as +/- (most notably that it is affected heavily by save percentage and shooting percentage), but it's a bit more exact, it isn't affected so much by ice time, and the GF%Rel stat gives us a better idea of the individual player's contribution.

Ideally we want to see a GF% above 50% and a GF%Rel above 0.

Name

GP

ES GFoI

ES GAoI

ES GF%

ES GF%Rel

Alex Barre-Boulet

48

55

35

61.111

26.944

Jonathan Bourcier

50

44

23

65.672

23.495

Nicolas Roy

45

50

29

63.291

21.142

Timo Meier

34

38

23

62.295

20.25

Shawn Ouellette-St-Amant

42

54

15

78.261

19.928

Manuel Wiederer

39

51

29

63.75

15.833

Mathieu Joseph

45

52

29

64.198

15.326

Dmytro Timashov

40

58

35

62.366

14.033

Kay Schweri

20

22

11

66.667

12.319

Alex Dostie

39

39

21

65

11.825

Morgan Adams-Moisan

43

17

16

51.515

11.515

Kameron Kielly

31

22

19

53.659

11.085

Adam Marsh

37

31

21

59.615

10.042

Cameron Askew

50

51

37

57.955

9.932

Auguste Impose

33

21

20

51.22

9.695

And we do! Timashov's team scores 62% of the goals when he is on the ice, and just under 50% of the goals when he isn't on the ice. That's a pretty big difference! Of course, quality of teammates plays into this, since Timashov is generally on the ice with the other best players on his team. He's managed to maintain an impressive GF% on two different teams, though, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to say that when Timashov is on the ice, the puck is generally going in the right direction.

So the Leafs have a kid who has put up elite even strength scoring numbers and who sees a significant positive shift in his team's goals for percentage when he's on the ice. He's done this on two different teams this season, which is just his second season playing in North America. He's not very tall but already has an NHL-ready build. And he was a fifth-round pick. A fifth-round pick who is outscoring the 3 QMJHL forwards selected in the first round, the 4 picked in the second round, the 2 in the third round, and the 4 in the fourth round. He has a very high shooting percentage and he's one of the older players in his draft class, but he's clearly an excellent prospect.

From a results perspective this is very exciting, as the Leafs seem to have pulled off one of the biggest steals of the 2015 draft. From a process perspective, though, we maybe shouldn't be patting ourselves (or Leafs management) on the backs too much. The Leafs picked Andrew Nielsen, Martins Dzierkals, and Jesper Lindgren ahead of Timashov, which suggests either that they were very confident that Timashov wouldn't be picked before the 125th selection (which seems unlikely), or that they saw those three players as better prospects than Timashov. None of them were terrible picks, but I would certainly rather have Timashov than any of them.

Regardless, he's a Leafs prospect now, and that appears to be a very good thing.

Dmytro Timashov vs The Future!

Timashov was born in 1996, which means he will be eligible to play for the Marlies and/or Solar Bears next season. Leafs management will probably want him to work on his defensive game a bit, which would be difficult in the QMJHL where he can pretty much stickhandle circles around the offensive zone for as long as he wants. He also already has an ELC with the Leafs, so it seems pretty likely that he'll start next season on a pro team.

I know this post has been pretty effusive in its praise for Timashov, but it's important to remember that he's not a Drouin-level prospect (or Marner-level for a more Leafs-centric example). Based on his production so far, though, it looks like he has a good chance of suiting up for the Leafs on a regular basis in a few years.

Next time on Checking In On The Kids: I try to find something to say about the Leafs' 6th-round pick Stephen Desrocher.

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