With the NHL welcoming the Las Vegas Black Knights into the league for the 2017/18 season, an expansion draft will be held. With an expansion draft coming we have plenty of chances for what the internet is best at:
~WILD SPECULATION!~
[Rules]
Teams cannot reacquire players they trade after Jan. 1, 2017 prior to Jan. 1, 2018. This is to prevent teams from entering arrangements to "hide" players from the expansion draft. There will likely be a lot more guidelines as part of this rule.
Sounds reasonable to me, no more of your sneaky sheningans GM’s.
Teams have to expose at least two forwards and one defenceman who have played either 40 games in the previous season (2016-17) or 70 games in the previous two seasons (2015-17). Teams can only lose a max of one player.
Don’t want the Black Knights to be as terrible as the expansion Capitals, very important.
The expansion team must select players that have a total value of between 60 and 100 per cent of the 2016-17 salary cap.
Ok.
The expansion team can’t buy out anyone it picks in the expansion draft until the following off-season (2018).
Probably keeps down some backdoor "take this guy to buy out and we’ll slip you a draft pick or two" deals.
The expansion team will be given the same draft lottery odds as the team that finishes third last in the league and cannot pick later than sixth in the 2017 NHL entry draft. It’s possible the expansion team could end up with the first overall pick, if it wins the lottery.
No! I want another "spin and win" scenario!
Teams must protect players that have no-movement clauses active in the 2017-18 season. No-movement clauses active in 2016-17 will have no impact.
This is the one that caused a lot of arm flailing. The Leafs still have Nathan Horton, and he has an NMC. Remember that players can waive it for trades, or in this instance, drafts. With almost no expectation to play again I don’t see a reason Horton wouldn’t waive the clause.
Why is your list different from General Fanagers?
General Fanager's tool is so fantastic, and I've done 4 expansion drafts already. I don't like playing guessing games however, and while a player like William Nylander is 99.9% going to make the Leafs out of camp, and Mitch Marner shouldn't be going back to junior, I personally don't want to guess on that because then it opens a pandoras box of assumptions, like re-singing Grabner, or Parenteau for another year, etc...
I'm looking at the roster as it stands at the end of the 2015/16 season and how the future looks right now. Anyone UFA on July 1st was left off the list.
[Ineligible Leafs]
Below is a list of Maple Leafs players who are currently signed and as of right now would be exempted from the expansion draft:
| Player | NHL Seasons | Cap Hit | Final Season |
| William Nylander | 0 | $894,166 | 2017/18 |
| Frederik Gauthier | 0 | $863,333 | 2017/18 |
| Tobias Lindberg | 0 | $693,333 | 2017/18 |
| Kasimir Kaskisuo | 0 | $925,000 | 2017/18 |
| Mitch Marner | 0 | $894,166 | 2018/19 |
| Travis Dermott | 0 | $894,166 | 2018/19 |
| Rinat Valiev | 0 | $778,333 | 2017/18 |
| Andreas Johnson | 0 | $750,833 | 2017/18 |
| Nikita Soshnikov | 0 | $736,666 | 2017/18 |
| Andrew Nielsen | 0 | $700,833 | 2017/18 |
| Dmytro Timashov | 0 | $691,666 | 2017/18 |
| Sam Carrick | 0 | $600,000 | RFA |
| Bryon Froese | 1 | $575,000 | 2017/18 |
| Frank Corrado | 1 | $632,500 | RFA |
| Garret Sparks | 0 | $670,000 | RFA |
| Nikita Zaitsev | 0 | $925,000 | 2016/17 |
| Zach Hyman | 0 | $925,000 | 2016/17 |
| Stuart Percy | 0 | $863,333 | RFA |
| Josh Leivo | 0 | $792,500 | RFA |
| Viktor Loov | 0 | $692,500 | 2017/18 |
| Connor Brown | 0 | $686,666 | 2017/18 |
| Antoine Bibeau | 0 | $655,000 | 2017/18 |
| Connor Carrick | 0 | $636,666 | RFA |
| Colin Smith | 0 | $628,333 | RFA |
| Scott Harrington | 0 | $589,166 | RFA |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 0 | $863,333 | 2019/19 |
*Seasons refers to # of seasons played by this year that would qualify them for the expansion draft.
[Eligible Leafs]
Below is a list of Maple Leafs players who are currently signed and could be taken in the expansion draft:
| Player | NHL Seasons | Cap Hit | Final Season |
| Joffrey Lupul | 13 | $5,250,000 | 2017/18 |
| Nazem Kadri | 4 | $4,500,000 | 2021/22 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 7 | $4,250,000 | 2017/18 |
| Tyler Bozak | 6 | $4,200,000 | 2017/18 |
| Leo Komarov | 3 | $2,950,000 | 2017/18 |
| Morgan Rielly | 3 | $5,000,000 | 2021/22 |
| Jake Gardiner | 4 | $4,050,000 | 2018/19 |
| Nathan Horton | 10 | $5,300,000 | 2019/20 |
| Peter Holland | 2 | $775,000 | RFA |
| Martin Marincin | 1 | $700,000 | RFA |
| Brooks Laich | 11 | $4,500,000 | 2016/17 |
| Milan Michalek | 12 | $4,000,000 | 2016/17 |
| Colin Greening | 5 | $2,650,000 | 2016/17 |
| Matt Hunwick | 9 | $1,200,000 | 2016/17 |
| Andrew Campbell | 2 | $575,000 | 2016/17 |
| Jonathan Bernier | 6 | $4,150,000 | 2016/17 |
| Stephane Robidas | 16 | $3,000,000 | 2016/17 |
*Seasons refers to # of seasons played by this year that would qualify them for the expansion draft.
[My list]
Well, the problem with making this list a year early is that the Leafs only have 12 players who would be eligible, and it's not hard to choose. There are plenty of players who become UFA’s before the draft, if resigned would be eligible for the expansion draft, but they aren't yet so they aren't on my lists (Boyes, Grabner, etc..), neither are players who, as I said above, should be eligible if all our plans and hopes come true.
Below are the players I would protect, then the players I would expose.
Protect:
Forwards: James van Reimsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Peter Holland
Defense: Morgan Reilly, Jake Gardiner
Goal: N/A
Expose:
Forwards: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Nathan Horton, Brooks Laich, Milan Michalek, Colin Greening
Defense: Martin Marincin, Matt Hunwick, Andrew Campbell, Stephane Robidas
Goal: Jonathan Bernier
Okay, I am making one assumption and that's where Horton waives his NMC, 1) because as long as he's getting paid I doubt he cares who holds his rights and 2) no way Vegas takes that uninsured contract.
We can see we have plenty of room for more players to protect, maybe a certain centre.....
There is lots of room on this roster for veterans and UFA's, and once the season begins we'll take a look at this list again, and then review at the trade deadline, and just before the expansion draft itself.
This is going to be a fun year, for the off ice moves alone.
Who would you keep? Who would you expose?
