> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# It is probably easier being the underdog: Maple Leafs’ first round odds
- URL: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/it-is-probably-easier-being-the-underdog-toronto-maple-leafs-first-round-odds-washington-capitals/
- Published: 2017-04-18T16:00:01.000Z
- Updated: 2017-04-18T16:00:01.000Z
- Description: There was so much less stress when it was only about taking at least one win from the Capitals.
- Author: Cathy Squires
- Tags: Maple Leafs Playoffs, #chorus, #Import 2023-04-05 10:50

> [#Leafs](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Leafs?src=hash&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) and [#Caps](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Caps?src=hash&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) series odds after Game 3\. [https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI](https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) [pic.twitter.com/lSzvzhqZbI](https://t.co/lSzvzhqZbI?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)
> 
> — MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) [April 18, 2017](https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/854163328054292484?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)

MoneyPuck says the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 65 percent chance of winning their first round series against the Capitals. His full chart of probabilities and the big wheel of future round chances is [where it always is](http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) if you want to dig deeper.

Dom is a little more conservative, with 56 to 44 as the split in chances.

> Updated Stanley Cup Probabilities [pic.twitter.com/UbHHJaURYx](https://t.co/UbHHJaURYx?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)
> 
> — dom 💛 nashville 🤠 (@domluszczyszyn) [April 18, 2017](https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/854205599323738113?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)

He also makes this really interesting observation:

> The top five teams in the league are a combined 4-11 in the playoffs. Three of the wins are from Pittsburgh. These playoffs are crazy.
> 
> — dom 💛 nashville 🤠 (@domluszczyszyn) [April 18, 2017](https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/854201068070326274?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)

But this is my favourite chart:

> [#Leafs](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Leafs?src=hash&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) have done some damage to the [#Caps](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Caps?src=hash&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) [#StanleyCup](https://twitter.com/hashtag/StanleyCup?src=hash&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) odds [https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI](https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) [pic.twitter.com/1mkLeT48aH](https://t.co/1mkLeT48aH?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)
> 
> — MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) [April 18, 2017](https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/854170052144361472?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com)

He’s showing a lot of that decline in the Captials’ chances going to the Penguins, which makes sense. They are almost a lock to beat out Columbus, and they will play the winner of the Toronto - Washington series.

But this is all so nerve wracking. It’s tough to even lift your head for a moment and look at the second round. It’s tough to consider it.

Could it happen? Will Phil Kessel get a playoff series at the ACC again? How is that going to feel?

Ahhhhhh. I’m not sure I want to look that far ahead. Next game. Home ice against Washington. Rookies versus vets. MoneyPuck gives the Leafs a 46 percent chance to win that game.

What do you think? Forget the series, let’s just think about Wednesday’s game. Will the Leafs win?

### Who will win game four?

| Leafs in OT         | 183 |
| ------------------- | --- |
| Caps in OT          | 40  |
| Leafs in regulation | 501 |
| Caps in regulation  | 162 |