> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Expected Career Shooting - URL: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/maple-leafs-news-links-october-25-2013/ - Published: 2013-10-25T10:00:08.000Z - Updated: 2013-10-25T10:00:08.000Z - Author: Colin Odneal - Tags: From The Branches, #chorus, #Import 2023-04-05 11:01 So lately the conversation has been about the Leafs unsustainable shooting and how it's likely to come crashing back to Earth. I see a lot of team year-to-year comparisons, but none looking at the trees in that forest and how they perform. What I did was set up a 12F and 6D roster for the Leafs as if it were healthy and with likely lineups: that means no Broll, Bodie, Smith, Fraser, and instead guys like Rielly, Orr, McLaren, etc... Why only 12 and 6? Because that's all that can play in a game and so that's all I care about when making overall estimations for season long performance. [Anyhow, what I did was to look up the players' career shooting and sh% averages, and extrapolate those out to "per 82" and "per game" numbers to find out what the Maple Leafs as a team would perform is every single individual player on the team performed to their career averages. Here's what I got:](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlBZxpXinYkCdFljTGE2c2dtWVRULXNoWjZicnFXbmc&usp=drive%5Fweb&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com#gid=0) | **Player** | **Position** | **Career Games** | **Career Goals** | **Career Shots** | **Career Sh%** | **Shots/82** | **Goals/82** | **Shots/Game** | **Goals/Game** | | ------------ | ------------ | ---------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ------------ | ------------ | -------------- | -------------- | | Bolland | F | 342 | 73 | 503 | 14.51% | 121 | 18 | 1.47 | 0.21 | | Bozak | F | 248 | 56 | 353 | 15.86% | 117 | 19 | 1.42 | 0.23 | | Clarkson | F | 426 | 97 | 1033 | 9.39% | 199 | 19 | 2.42 | 0.23 | | Kadri | F | 109 | 29 | 201 | 14.43% | 151 | 22 | 1.84 | 0.27 | | Kessel | F | 514 | 190 | 1733 | 10.96% | 276 | 30 | 3.37 | 0.37 | | Kulemin | F | 353 | 75 | 626 | 11.98% | 145 | 17 | 1.77 | 0.21 | | Lupul | F | 541 | 168 | 1436 | 11.70% | 218 | 25 | 2.65 | 0.31 | | McClement | F | 610 | 71 | 811 | 8.75% | 109 | 10 | 1.33 | 0.12 | | McLaren | F | 75 | 4 | 36 | 11.11% | 39 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.05 | | Orr | F | 432 | 12 | 165 | 7.27% | 31 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.03 | | Raymond | F | 384 | 84 | 871 | 9.64% | 186 | 18 | 2.27 | 0.22 | | van Riemsdyk | F | 252 | 70 | 634 | 11.04% | 206 | 23 | 2.52 | 0.28 | | Franson | D | 253 | 23 | 397 | 5.79% | 129 | 7 | 1.57 | 0.09 | | Gardiner | D | 97 | 7 | 97 | 7.22% | 82 | 6 | 1 | 0.07 | | Gunnarsson | D | 234 | 12 | 238 | 5.04% | 83 | 4 | 1.02 | 0.05 | | Phaneuf | D | 610 | 108 | 1732 | 6.24% | 233 | 15 | 2.84 | 0.18 | | Ranger | D | 280 | 18 | 355 | 5.07% | 104 | 5 | 1.27 | 0.06 | | Rielly | D | 8 | 1 | 16 | 6.25% | 164 | 10 | 2 | 0.13 | | (12F) | F | 4286 | 929 | 8402 | 11.06% | 1,799 | 207 | 21.94 | 2.52 | | (6D) | D | 1482 | 169 | 2835 | 5.96% | 795 | 48 | 9.69 | 0.58 | | | ALL | 5768 | 1098 | 11237 | 9.77% | 2,594 | 254 | 31.63 | 3.1 | So if we expected the Leafs players to all perform to their career averages (for Rielly I took his shot pace and gave him an average sh% for dmen) then as a team they should be peforming as such: Shots/Game: 31.63 Goals/Game: 3.1 SH%: 9.77% In reality, this season (and last season) the Leafs' numbers are: Shots/Game: 26.8 (26.3) Goals/Game: 3.3 (3.02) SH%: 12.31% (11.48%) So as a team the Leafs' overall shooting numbers are right in line with their paltry performance from last season, but due to shooting 26% above their combined career average their goal scoring is actually up 10% compared to last year, and 6% compared to their expected career output. Is this ridiculous pace going to continue? Of course not, but this data does show that the Leafs as a combination of individuals might be a slightly better than average (9.1%) shooting team. **Links** [Leafs Performance Level Statistically Unlikely to Continue](http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/10/24/breaking-leafs-performance-level-statistically-unlikely-to-continue/?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) I agree obviously. [Odds and Ends](http://hopeinthebigsmoke.ca/odds-and-ends/?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Random Leafs chit chat. [Thursday Leafs Notes](http://theleafsnation.com/2013/10/24/thursday-leaf-notes-lupul-mclaren-rielly-bon-jovi?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Rielly, McLaren, other things.