> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday's FTB: Why the Maple Leafs can't trade for a defenceman - URL: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/mondays-ftb-why-the-maple-leafs-cant-trade-for-a-defenceman/ - Published: 2026-11-09T11:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-09T11:00:03.000Z - Description: An exhaustive look at their cap space efficiency. - Author: Cathy Squires - Tags: From The Branches First I went to several different sites that track cap dollar per point, and I compiled all that information, weighted by TOI, for each of the 32 teams, and... I mean. No I didn't. I'll tell you what I really did, but first I want to apologize for the sarcastic headline, and I promise not to mock these "why" headlines too often. I get to decide what too often is, though, unfortunately, and they really annoy me. As for the defenceman, they can trade for one; they just need to remove a player of equal cap hit with a contract of more than one year. Which they would likely do anyway when making a trade. Now, onto the topic of optimisation, just from a slightly more nuanced angle than using those ridiculous cap dollars per point charts. Just because you can calculate something, doesn't mean you should. What I really did was read a [Guardian article](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2026/nov/08/the-efficiency-trap-why-optimising-everything-can-backfire-badly?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) that was a quick take on AI, guaranteeing some attention, based around the simple pitfalls of optimisation which I will spell with an s in homage to the original. The first one is being so tightly efficient in your spending that you have no redundancy built in. In "whatever the team does is wrong" analysis, the story this season is that the Leafs spent too much on the depth and can't have six star forwards, while what they should do is fill up the team with minimum-salary players, run a 20-man roster tight to the cap and recall an AHLer when needed. I feel like I've seen that team somewhere, but I just can't put my finger on when... That it didn't work in the past is not actually a good reason why it won't ever work, though. But this idea ignores a whole host of realities: that almost no one with NHL ability has a salary that low, far less multiple players on one team; that AHLers are hard to slot into an NHL lineup in a way that adds value because if they could do that, they would already be doing it; a full pressbox is important for injury prevention as well as injury replacement; playing half your lineup for massive minutes and the other half barely at all is not a recipe for regular season success. The second bad way to optimise is to ask the wrong questions about the system your working with. Or, put another way, setting the wrong goal. This is endemic in sports, in fan analysis, in media analysis, in what teams do, in what the owners of teams demand the management does. It's not always because the value of every player is measured by points, but it often is. Let's say you've seen the light and you don't even know who on your team has what in terms of points. Now you measure by something else, maybe a complex set of stats and mathematical models. Are you just looking at five-on-five information? My suspicions of the enlightened always start there. (Mostly from personal experience.) The first commandment of the Church of Corsi is that five-on-five CF% correlates with future wins better than GF%. This true thing has led to on-ice Corsi becoming the measure of a player. Weight those Corsis and adjust them and twist them into little knots and put new names on them like SG or RAPM and you have a measure to judge from. Bandon Duhaime wants a word about his career-long commitment to becoming a gigantic pain in the ass and a very good PKer. There are three goalies waving for your attention as well. Those enlightened managers who have built good teams – Florida, Carolina, Colorado, Vegas – are not using cap dollar per on-ice Corsi, but they are also in some very real way optimising their roster to balance their needs. There isn't one true perfect formula, and there are a lot of ways to do it almost good enough, but it is a complex task that requires more than points and Corsi or gut feelings and tradition to do well. The third optimisation trap (according to the article I'm casually ripping off) is when different optimisation efforts collide. If you did wave form experiments in school with a little pan of water, you got to see waves amplify each other or cancel each other out. This happens to NHL teams all the time. They Gift of the Magi themselves by trading away a player to fill a hole only to have someone go down to injury and the guy they gave away is now very necessary. The trouble is, unlike the examples in the article – money markets, hospitals, urban planning – you can't just add more money to the NHL system to correct these misalignments. So when you make them, and every team is going to, you have a harder time course-correcting. I think it might be correct right now to say that the Leafs optimised for special teams very well, but not five-on-five. They built in a lot of redundancy, which has proven to be needed, but they lack forwards that are promotable. They need a defenceman or two, and they know it. And that's the other thing about these efficiency analyses: they assume the correct mix is there to be had. The counterfactual history always is better, and there was always a path through to the chest full of goodies, just like in a video game. Hit the right button, and it's outlined in yellow. Well Zach Werenski changed his mind about a trade, didn't he? And did you know, he only just scored his first goal this week. Good thing the Leafs didn't get that bum. (Don't you like it better when we just post recipes from the Guardian?) [Jackson Boxer’s vegetarian recipe for roast beetroot with pickled raisins and blue cheeseThink you don’t like beetroot? Surprise yourself with these flavours![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/icon/favicon-32x32-ee5993ea-e852-4cd5-9a40-e49672edd453.ico)The GuardianJackson Boxer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/thumbnail/5163-1957b4d6-8501-4752-a6e1-c1fe6e8bc2ad.jpg)](https://www.theguardian.com/food/2026/nov/07/vegetarian-roast-beetroot-recipe-pickled-raisins-blue-cheese-jackson-boxer?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) --- A bit about worlds... Canada obliterated Japan like it was the old days in women's hockey, 9-0 which is a big, big argument against this new format. The argument for it was Sweden upsetting Finland to take second place in their group for now. Overall after half the round played for everyone, USA and Canada are tied with Czechia in third followed by Sweden and Finalnd. Not very surprising a result. Today, USA plays Austria, and Canada plays Denmark, both at 1 pm. --- Something you might not know: League average Save % is .890 as of yesterday. Okay, about last night: The Leafs were without Chris Tanev, Jack Roslovic, Morgan Rielly, and of course, Kirill Marchenko. The first period was Leafs dominance in the face of an even more tired Devils team than the Leafs. No one scored any goals. The second period was the Devils taking total advantage of the Leafs playing a hell of a lot of their depth all at once. The Devils scored 2 and came close to evening up the shotshare. The third period .... > Maple Leafs F Colton Sissons will not return to tonight’s game due to injury (lower body) > > — Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) [November 9, 2026](https://x.com/LeafsPR/status/2119615227356397974?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Ah, well, who needs players. Anyhow, the Leafs killed a cheap penalty call on Matthews, which might have been the highlight of the night (speaking of optimising for special teams) but the Devils scored on the next power play. Nico Hischier who had been successfully checking Matthews all game. I, er, did not watch very much of the rest of this. But nothing much happened outside of the NJ PP time and a lot of stupid scrums. Hellebuyck never broke a sweat. Nice work if you can get it. Final score was 4-0 Devils. The gear was nice, though. > back in the top six [pic.twitter.com/Sdy2PAelMx](https://t.co/Sdy2PAelMx?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > > — Omar (@TicTacTOmar) [November 9, 2026](https://x.com/TicTacTOmar/status/2119587072101232878?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Next game is Tuesday, and I don't think you're ready yet today to hear who it is against. We might, maybe, hear what's up with all the injured guys today, so that's a fun thing to look forward to. Happy Monday, everyone.