Everyone wants the conditional pick from the Kings to be a second and not a third. The Kings like Scott Laughton, and I've noticed DJ Smith likes to play him in key situations – to start OT, to start after a power play, etc. – so let's all be happy together, and hope them into the playoffs. I'm sure that's how it works.

This unfortunately means paying attention to the Western Conference, which might as well be on a different planet, it's so weird.

The Kings are eight points back of the Ducks, who are leading the Pacific with 75 points which does not get you in a playoff position in the east. Edmonton and Vegas aren't much better at 72 points each, making this complicated because those final two Pacific spots are in the mix as well as just the wild card spots are for LA (67 points), Seattle (67) and San Jose (66). Nashville (66), who are also in this conversation, can't touch the Central teams, so their only way in is in the wild card spot, this is also Utah's situation with 73 points.

Okay, here's the Moneypuck odds as of yesterday – you can look up any changes yourself as the season rolls on. These odds are made ...

By running a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team. Each game is simulated using the probabilities from the pre-game prediction model discussed below. For games further into the future, the model scores are regressed to the mean to account for uncertainty.

Utah, who hold the first wildcard spot are at 91.9% to make the playoffs. So the model puts them as unbeatable, and given how few games are left, that's fully realistic. The same way I'm not mentioning Winnipeg, who are out of the picture, these things are not certain yet, but they are close enough.

So the real contenders for the two Pacific spots and the one wildcard spot are:

  1. Edmonton at 85.4%
  2. Vegas at 81.4%
  3. Seattle at 38.8%
  4. LA at 37.6%
  5. San Jose at 31.5%
  6. Nashville at 28.1%

Something really weird has to happen for Edmonton and Vegas to fall out of the picture entirely. Nashville has very faint hopes here given the juggernaut of mediocrity in the Pacific.

The three west coast teams are all very close, and the most likely outcome here is that those three teams will be the second, third and fourth place for the wild card spots, meaning only one of them gets in.

That is one reason why each has a probability of about one/third. The other is that they are virtually indistinguishable in the model. Put the three together and there's a greater than 100% chance one of them gets in (because there is some small chance they knock out Edmonton or Vegas).

Expect these numbers to be volatile as the time to move up or down the standings winds down. A win and up you go, a loss and down the drain.

Making this interesting, the Leafs play LA and San Jose in early April, about the only thing that will be interesting about 10 pm starts.

Tonight, while the Leafs are playing the Ducks, Boston needs to pull their socks up and beat San Jose in regulation. Go Bruins Go! Seattle faces the Avs in a late game, and Colorado needs to stop being so average and start building to the playoffs!

LA gets to play the Islanders tomorrow on Friday the 13th. What could go wrong?

Now that you know you're cheering for the Bruins tonight, we can move onto some news.

Mammoth sign F Schmaltz to eight-year, $64M contract extension
The Utah Mammoth have signed forward Nick Schmaltz to an eight-year, $64 million contract extension.
TSNThe Canadian Press
ESPN to Exclusively Present NCAA Women’s Ice Hockey Championships, March 12-22
ESPN will exclusively present the 2026 NCAA Women’s Ice Hockey Championships, beginning Thursday, March 12, with the regional semifinals. Action continues Saturday, March 14, with the regional finals. Every regional game through the Women’s Frozen Four will stream on the ESPN App. Women’s Frozen Four semifinal action begins Friday, March 20, at 4 p.m. ET and 7:30 p.m. on ESPN+ followed by the Championship game on Sunday, March 22, at 4 p.m. from Pegula Ice Arena at University Park, Pa. (ESPNU). Jason Ross Jr., AJ Mleczko and Madison Packer will be on the call throughout Women’s Frozen Four and John Buccigross, Mleczko and Packer on the call for the Championship.
ESPN Press Room U.S.Andrea DiCristoforo

8 pm Friday!

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