> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Tuesday's FTB: So boring, these Leafs - URL: https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/tuesdays-ftb-so-boring-these-leafs/ - Published: 2026-09-29T10:00:06.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-29T11:02:08.000Z - Description: Boring, dull and they never do anything. - Author: Cathy Squires - Tags: From The Branches It's regular season prediction time, and I usually post a few that arise out of models I take seriously or laugh rudely at betting companies' efforts. One hopes every gambler knows the difference between odds and probability. No? Well that's just the way they like it, carry on. LOL. I deleted what came after. I was good, though, some thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of these prediction efforts when a team has an outlier season. But seriously, LOL on your prediction model. John Chayka smashed it all up. Has there ever been a real and impactful player trade in the afternoon of the roster deadline day? Maybe, but none I remember. So to catch you up, this is the post with the profile of Kirill Marchenko: [Maple Leafs attempting to acquire Kirill MarchenkoGet to know this top-line winger.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/icon/PPP-Goalie-Logo_RGB-95e80348-97c2-4cfd-966d-cb57181d3406.png)PPP LeafsCathy Squires![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1697328410319-86769c2f6922-01718806-5784-4856-bdcb-f284e0cf173b.jpg)](https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/maple-leafs-attempting-to-acquire-kirill-marchenko/) There is more depth on the trade here: [Marchenko - Knies trade detailsA done deal now officially broken by Dan Milstein.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/icon/PPP-Goalie-Logo_RGB-0fed803c-8e24-4614-91ce-e7064826c652.png)PPP LeafsCathy Squires![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1642543348745-03b1219733d9-ec3a4390-ca93-40e6-9aac-fb3723bba94c.jpg)](https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/marchenko-knies-trade-details/) But the gist is this: > 🚨 Trade: > > To [#Leafs](https://x.com/hashtag/Leafs?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > Kirill Marchenko 26 y/o F, Yr 3/3 $3.85M - with 6 x 12.5 extension > Elvis Merzlikins 32 y/o G, Yr 5/5 $5.4M - 18% retained > Miles Wood 31 y/o F, Yr 4/6 $2.5M > > To [#CBJ](https://x.com/hashtag/CBJ?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > Matthew Knies 23 y/o F, Yr 2/6 $7.75M > Steven Lorentz 30 y/o F, Yr 2/3 $1.35M > Emil Andrae 24… > > — PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) [September 28, 2026](https://x.com/PuckPedia/status/2104688148798382511?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) I will miss Matt Knies, that representation of excellent scouting, but I love this trade. At the end of my player profile series I said this: > Player evaluation is the core of team building, and the teams that do it with clear-eyed honesty and emotions in check are the ones that build winning teams. It's not just for draft day, this objectivity. What the Leafs had in Matt Knies, outside of who he is as a person and as a player is someone with no trade protection and a difference in the perception of his value and the measurable value he produces on the ice. This trade was not with New Jersey or Carolina. This trade was with a team that values Knies for who he is. And it is was with a team , the Leafs, who value Marchenko for who he is. I know who I agree with. > Don Waddell statement on Knies: > > "Matthew is a big, strong power forward who combines tough, hard-nosed physical play with outstanding offensive skills. He is a young player with great character & work ethic & we couldn’t be more excited to welcome him to the Blue Jackets family" [https://t.co/qjJAfQqqIU](https://t.co/qjJAfQqqIU?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > > — Mark Masters (@markhmasters) [September 28, 2026](https://x.com/markhmasters/status/2104693977828000230?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Some other thoughts on this: [Maple Leafs acquire Kirill Marchenko from Blue Jackets for Matthew Knies![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/icon/sn_favicon-26650428-4e13-4e71-83e8-1c0cc281b096.ico)Sportsnet.caLuke Fox![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/thumbnail/Marchenko-75cc9137-f5e9-45f5-82b3-62a9fa0eb1a2.jpg)](https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-acquire-kirill-marchenko-from-blue-jackets-for-matthew-knies/?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) This, I don't know, rumour? fabulism? something, started going around last night. > Kirill's conditioning has NEVER been a topic. Andrew's relevance, on the other hand... [https://t.co/kP9laHGlpj](https://t.co/kP9laHGlpj?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > > — Dan Milstein (@HockeyAgent1) [September 29, 2026](https://x.com/HockeyAgent1/status/2104732381903282438?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) Milstein is having none of it. Many people of the "someone said it, so no smoke without fire" persuasion will buy in, though. Alas, they are legion. What does Tuukka Rask say about it all, you have to wonder. When I turned off the computer last night, the Leafs roster was not yet public. What is possible is Marchenko won't be able to play today due to visa issues. The preview might have the details! And finally a few things that seem to be confusing people: - Marchenko's new contract takes effect next year. He is at $3.85 this season. - He has usually been a RW, and he shoots right. - Miles Wood has cleared waivers and can be sent to the AHL immediately. - The health status of Elvis Merzlikins is unstated in the long term, but he is definitely not playable now (he has been wearing a sling on his arm). --- Other news: That's it, see you in the preview once we know who is even playing on this team. Update: Puckpedia has what they believe is the Leafs roster and cap situation. > We believe this is the [#Leafs](https://x.com/hashtag/Leafs?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) 2026-27 [#NHL](https://x.com/hashtag/NHL?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) opening night roster: > > 13F, 7D, 2G + 2 IR (Domi, Joshua) & Merzlikins LTIR. > > They exceeded the cap by $3.94M with Merzlikins on LTIR & therefore came within $37K of optimal LTIR capture. > > They can add cap space by subsequently adding… [pic.twitter.com/8ZYNY5BJIi](https://t.co/8ZYNY5BJIi?ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) > > — PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) [September 29, 2026](https://x.com/PuckPedia/status/2104782026666910099?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=pensionplanpuppets.com) The image a little bigger: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/34/01/3401a938-f468-4c02-a227-9bc4cc09bad4/content/images/2026/09/HTWwBkTa8AAEAJ--1-.jpg) Note the details on LTIR here. Domi is not on LTIR yet, and Merzlikins is only on in-season LTIR. The potential is there to add $4.2 million in LTIR pool. Opening up the opportunity to add a player or players. When Dakota Joshua comes off IR, the roster has 23 healthy players, and the team is at 50 SPCs, so both of those facts limit additions without there being subtractions. Also of note, Bo Groulx requires waivers to be sent to the AHL. And one final point on this roster, Gavin McKenna can earn as much as $3.5 million in performance bonuses, and if he does earn them, they cannot be paid out of LTIR. So the Leafs would use their cap space at the end of the season, if any, to cover them, and the rest rolls to next season. Looking ahead, the only healthy player on this roster above that is expiring is Nick Blankenburg. Even with Kirill Marchenko's big raise next year, the Leafs would be under the cap by almost $4 million with 22 players. There is no problem fitting that contract in. Kirill Marchenko now joins Gavin McKenna, William Nylander and Darren Raddysh as the committed core of the team.