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FTB: Trade Down Targets for Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs

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How far the Leafs should move down and teams that want to do it.

2018 NHL Draft - Rounds 2-7
DALLAS, TX - JUNE 23: (l-r) Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan of the Toronto Maple Leafs handle the draft table during the 2018 NHL Draft at American Airlines Center on June 23, 2018 in Dallas, Texas.
Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The 2020 NHL Draft is on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Day 1 will begin at 7pm ET and go for three hours, while Day 2 starts at 11:30am and goes on all day. The Toronto Maple Leafs traded their first round pick, but acquired another one so they’ll have the 15th and 44th picks in the first two rounds and nine picks from the fourth round onwards.

First Round: 15th
Second Round: 44th
Fourth Round: 106th, 122nd
Fifth Round: 153rd
Sixth Round: 168th, 177th, 180th
Seventh Round: 189th, 195th, 211th

Kyle Dubas has been labelled as a “trade down guy” even though he’s only done it once as the team’s GM (three times if you include trading down twice in 2015 while co-GMing with Mark Hunter). That stereotype aside, it will probably be a good idea for the Leafs to move down from the 15th pick in the Draft this year.

There are a clear top-11 in this year’s Draft — Alexis Lafreniere, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi, Tim Stutzle, Jamie Drysdale, Cole Perfetti, Alexander Holtz, Jack Quinn, Anton Lundell, Yaroslav Askarov, in something like that order. There’s a pretty decent drop from 12th down, with the next 40 or so prospects all kind of being in the same range of each other, depending on team and personal preference. If teams above the Leafs don’t reach and allow someone like Rossi, Lundell, or Askarov to drop, it would be a smart move for the team to move back a few spaces if a player they like can be taken later, especially if reaching for them at 15 leaves too much value on the board.

Katya did some analysis on trading around the first round a few weeks ago, so we have some data on what trading down will likely cost. I’m going to take her work a step further and look at teams with picks in the desired ranges and come up with something like a trade down board.

From Katya’s work, teams that trade a pick around 14-16 will move down about five spots and get an extra pick in the range from the mid-second to the third (36th to 65th). More picks were 53rd or 58th.

Eligible Trade Down Teams

Ottawa Senators

First Round: 3rd, 5th, 28th
Second Round: 33rd, 52nd, 59th, 61st
Third Round: 64th, 71st

The Sens have a lot (A LOT) of picks, including three second round picks next season already. There’s a big gap from 5th to 28th and the Sens have been clear in saying they won’t make every pick they own after 5th overall. If they want to turn some of their second round picks into another first rounder where they can get a good complimentary winger, the Leafs will surely be a willing party.

Chicago

First Round: 17th
Second Round: 46th
Third Round: 79th, 81st

Chicago doesn’t have many picks for a rebuilding team, but if they want to move up a few spots if there’s a player they specifically want to go after, they have two third rounders that they could be willing to part with to make it happen. They also have a fourth, fifth, and sixth if a third is too high of a price. Maybe they’ll appreciate a seventh round pick back?

Detroit Red Wings

First Round: 4th
Second Round: 32nd, 45th, 55th
Third Round: 63rd, 65th

Detroit is another team with a big gap from their top pick to their later picks. They also have multiple second and third rounders. Moving down 17 picks is a pretty big drop, so it’ll definitely cost a pretty good pick to do it.

Anaheim Ducks

First Round: 6th, 27th
Second Round: 36th
Third Round: 67th

It’s in my contract to urge Kyle Dubas to take the 67th pick. Getting 27th seems like a reasonable sweetner to make it happen.

New York Rangers

First Round: 1st, 22nd
Third Round: 72nd, 92nd

Will the coffee be good in NYC on Tuesday morning? If they’re feeling rowdy, they might want to make a big bang in the first round and hang out until the fifth round. It’ll depend on if there’s someone they want to target. Every Rangers fan has been saying the team needs centres. There are a few in the Leafs range that might not fall to 22nd (Dawson Mercer, Dylan Holloway, Seth Jarvis).

Montreal Canadiens

First Round: 16th
Second Round: 46th, 47th, 57th
Third Round: 78th
Fourth Round: 98th, 102nd, 109th

If the Habs want to move up one spot, it’ll probably cost them one of their fourth round picks.

Possible Trade Down Targets

20th-25th

  • Rodion Amirov, LW, KHL
  • Connor Zary, C, WHL
  • Mavrik Bourque, C, QMJHL
  • Lukas Reichel, LW, DEL
  • John-Jason Peterka, LW, DEL

26th-35th

36th-49th

  • Brigs and I have a post about that at 9am ;)

50th-70th

And this is all before trading Andreas Johnsson or Travis Dermott!


Various Hockey Branches

The Dallas Stars signed Andrej Sekera to a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract yesterday. Is this perhaps the market for over-30 meh defensive defensemen?

The NHL dot com website published the Olli Maatta for Brad Morrison trade before anyone announced or broke it.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one week removed from winning the Stanley Cup and they’re back into save-the-cap mode. Tyler Johnson has begun to be cajoled into waiving his no-trade clause.

Hear me out: a tandem of Matt Murray and Henrik Lundqvist for a combined $5 million. I guarantee it’s better than any tandem that looks like two Jack Campbells.