The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 2-1 in their season series against the Edmonton Oilers. They’ve been winning ugly of late, maybe a bit lucky at times too. Then again, they also won their last game in spite of some... questionable penalty calls. They’re 7-2-0, which is good for first in the division in total points, but are two games ahead of Montreal (5-0-2) and Winnipeg (5-2-0) who could tie or pass the Leafs with their games in hand.

Beating Edmonton again would put them 10 points up on them, giving them a very comfortable cushion over the last team outside of the four available playoff spots. So even if the Leafs aren’t playing as well as we’d like, they’re banking points in case they run into a proverbial 18-wheeler.

Which is good, because the Leafs have only played one game against the other ‘best’ team in the division: Montreal. Despite that, they’re 23rd in the league in xGF% at even strength. They’re starting to slip from the fun-corner of graphs like the one below, into the bad section.

Fulemin had his optimist-pessimist take. I’d like to take a bit of an optimist take here. First, a lot of their star players are producing, which is what we need. But all of them (except Matthews) have been struggling at even strength to drive play, despite their offensive system supposedly being designed to maintain longer possession in the other team’s end. I don’t think they’ll continue to struggle as much as they have been, so even if their powerplay cools down that can be balanced out.

Second, they do have legitimately great special teams. Their powerplay and penalty kill has been so good, I’m starting to think the Leafs should pull a Bruins or Capitals and take more penalties to get more penalties so they win more with special teams.

Anyways let’s look forward to an annoying loss against Edmonton tonight like we all know is coming. Here’s the practice lines from Friday:

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