Carl Grundström was drafted 57th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2016, which was acquired from Washington at the deadline when the Leafs sent Daniel Winnik and a 5th round pick in 2016 for Connor Carrick, Brooks Laich, and the 3rd round pick that turned into Grundström.

After spending most of the past two seasons playing for Frölunda HC in the SHL before coming over for the 2018 AHL playoffs, Grundström will look to establish himself with a full year in the AHL and maybe compete for a spot on the NHL roster.

After debuting at #23 in the 2016 edition of the T25U25, he made a big jump up to #12 last year thanks to a strong season Playing Against Men(TM) in Sweden. After an even better season last year, Grundström actually fell back one spot to #13. It may seem odd for him to fall back to #13 especially since one of the guys ahead of him last year aged out (Josh Leivo). So he effectively fell back two spots — what gives?

Last year in the SHL Carl Grundström improved his stats across the board despite missing games due to a knee injury. He put up a better rate of goals (0.25 to 0.46 per game), assists (0.12 to 0.17 per game), points (0.37 to 0.63 per game), and shots on goal (2.25 to 2.37 per game) than he did the previous season. Then he jumped to the AHL, where he added 21 points (12 goals, 9 assists) in 28 games and helped the Marlies win the AHL championship.

So why did he drop a spot (two if you count Leivo aging out)? Well, the two players ahead of him this year are the two that jumped over him into 11th and 12th, so we’ll get an impression of why in those two profiles. I think it isn’t so much that he dropped one spot, it’s that the same big gulf between the top 10 or so spots and those after it still exists. Grundström might have had a good season, but so too did guys like Kapanen, Johnsson, Dermott, and Liljegren who were all ahead of him already, and didn’t do anything to fall behind Grundström.

So despite him dropping one spot in the rankings, I am higher on him as a player now than I was when I ranked him last year. In fact, last year I ranked him 15th and this year I ranked him 14th, so there you go!

The one guy I had ahead of him that I might have put Grundström ahead of was Adam Brooks at 13, but I’m still high on Brooks’ abilities, and as a center I think he could be more valuable in the future. Even if I think he’s less likely to make the NHL, I’m still not fully sold on Grundström’s NHL abilities yet either.

The Stats

Carl Grundström EP Stats

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGATPPIMPlayoffsGPGATPPIM
2010-2011IF Björklöven U16U16 SM31010
2011-2012VästerbottenTV-Pucken801112
IF Björklöven U16U16 SM65274
IF Björklöven J18J18 Allsvenskan50112
2012-2013VästerbottenTV-Pucken8105156
IF Björklöven U16U16 SM33252
IF Björklöven J18J18 Elit191081824
IF Björklöven J18J18 Allsvenskan1432518
Sweden U16 (all)International-Jr1144814
2013-2014MODO Hockey J18J18 Elit8781510
MODO Hockey J20U20 Super Challenge52024
MODO Hockey J18J18 Allsvenskan101241637Playoffs522429
MODO Hockey J20SuperElit3164106Playoffs10000
Sweden U17WHC-1750114
Sweden U17 (all)International-Jr1364108
2014-2015MODO Hockey J18J18 Elit11010
MODO Hockey J18J18 Allsvenskan32352Playoffs32240
MODO Hockey J20SuperElit2721153653Playoffs44262
MODO HockeySHL242358
Sweden U18WJC-18532510
Sweden U18Hlinka Gretzky Cup50222
Sweden U18 (all)International-Jr20981720
2015-2016MODO Hockey J20SuperElit10000
MODO HockeySHL49791653Relegation71346
Sweden U20WJC-2071016
Sweden U20 (all)International-Jr2044816
2016-2017Frölunda HCSHL45146206Playoffs141124
Frölunda HCChampions HL134486
Toronto MarliesAHL00000Playoffs63142
Sweden U20WJC-20734712
Sweden U20 (all)International-Jr151181924
Sweden (all)International20000
2017-2018Frölunda HCSHL35177248Playoffs62022
Frölunda HCChampions HL72134
Toronto MarliesAHL21230Playoffs20861414
Sweden (all)International21120
2018-2019Toronto MarliesAHL-----

The Player

Grundström is listed as a 6’0”, 194 lb winger who shoots left but can play either LW or RW. He is a goal scorer that loves to shoot and score around the net, work hard on the forecheck with some good physicality. He’s also said to be a very good skater with an NHL ready shot according to Scott Wheeler. However, he’s never really generated many assists, which leads one to think he isn’t much of a passer or play maker that will need someone on his line to play that role for him.

In last year’s T25U25 article on Grundström, Acting the Fulemin had this to say:

Almost everyone speaks highly of Grundström’s bowling-ball physicality in the offensive zone, where he’s willing to contest every inch of ice in order to get what he wants. He crashes the net at every opportunity and can chip in offence doing so. One line his fellow Swedes have said about him, if you’ll forgive some national stereotyping, is that he’s “more Canadian than the Canadians.”

Grundström’s old coach in Frolunda had this to say about his improvements last year:

“Carl, I think is a hard working player now,” said Ronnberg, who coached Andreas Johnsson before he made the jump to North America at the end of the 2015-16 season. “He’s hitting. He’s back-checking hard. He’s a good forechecker. He’s stealing a lot of pucks. And he’s also concerned and understands how important it is to follow the team structure, to play good together in the defensive structure. He’s really good on all those things now. I think he’s found that balance that it’s not either or.”

My question about Grundström is what will he be? He’s still only 20 years old, making him a year younger than Kasperi Kapanen, three years younger than Andreas Johnsson, four years younger than Connor Brown, and six years younger than Zachary Hyman. He’s not a skilled speedster like Kapanen or even Johnsson, and I’m not so sure he’s structurally the type of Swiss Army Knife-style player like how Babcock uses Brown and Hyman. He has the grindy, workmanlike game that Babcock loves.

Grundström is fast, he’s physical, he goes to the net, he works hard, he likes to shoot and has a pretty good shot especially around the net. He has yet to develop a strong reputation for defensive play forward, but seems to have the tools to become one. He might wind up being a slightly better version of Zach Hyman. If he reaches his potential he seems like he could wind up as an effective winger on the Leafs 3rd or 4th line, but seems to lack the high end skill to make him a real top-line player (unless he’s used in a similar role as Hyman has).

In the upcoming season he will spend his age 21 year in the AHL, where he’ll be given a prominent role on one of the Marlies top lines just like those other four guys were (except Hyman). Using those players above as a measuring stick, here’s what they all did in their age 21 season in the AHL:

  • Kapanen — 51 points and 139 shots on goal in 52 combined regular season and playoffs game, first cracked the NHL that same year but didn’t stick until partway through one season later.
  • Johnsson — 57 points and 166 shots on goal in 86 combined regular season and playoff games. First cracked the NHL roster one year later.
  • Brown — 65 points and 136 shots on goal in 81 combined regular season and playoff games.  First cracked the NHL roster one year later.
  • Hyman — was still in the NCAA where he had 17 points in 35 games. First cracked the NHL roster two years later. /

Using these four guys for comparison, we shouldn’t be in any rush for Grundström to make a real NHL impact this year. He still has plenty of time to develop as a prospect and break into the NHL sometime during the 2019/20 season. Barring a huge breakout and/or a litany of injuries to the wingers on the Leafs, we likely won’t see him in the NHL at all this year. But I personally can’t really see him developing into a prospect significantly better than these four. If he turns into a 30 to 40 point winger, I’ll be happy as a clam.

Fun fact to end this section: that 5th round pick the Leafs dealt to Washington as part of the trade that led the Leafs to drafting Grundström was used by the Capitals to draft Beck Malenstyn from the Calgary Hitmen. This past season Malenstyn was traded mid-season to Swift Current in a deal that saw Riley Stotts traded to Calgary. Stotts then got the opportunity he never had in Swift Current and finished with a breakout year, which helped him get drafted in the 3rd round this year.  That 5th round pick the Leafs sent to Washington? They got it for trading Holzer to the Ducks.

The Video

A Grundström classic: a tenacious forecheck creates a turnover, and he goes to the net for the goal.

Here we see evidence of a pretty wicked wrist shot off the rush:

Here’s an example of what Grundström can do to improve his play making to get more assists and round out his offensive game: using his presence around the net to find guys who are open for better scoring chances.

Here’s another example, as he finds Aaltonen open in the slot for the goal:

Our Thoughts

Here’s Kevin’s (who ranked him 12th) thoughts on Swedish Hyman:

I find it quite easy to write a scouting report on Carl Grundström, at least compared to most 20-year-old forwards. He carries clear strengths and weaknesses in his game, and there isn’t much physical projection left for such a heavy forward.

Grundström won’t “drive a line” at the NHL level. He’s an average puck carrier, rather than above average, and his assists are often accidental. However, he’s a nice complement to undersized, but play-driving forwards like William Nylander and Mitch Marner, and he’s going to score plenty of garbage goals because of his strength, coordination, and work-ethic. He will drive his way to the dirty areas, piss opposing defenders off, and wind up on the scoresheet with a tip-in or rebound goal. He can also score off of the rush by picking a corner with his hard wrist shot, and he has the potential to score 20 goals at the NHL level if everything breaks right.

Mike Babcock is probably going to love him, as he’s a player who can sure tire out his opponents in a playoff series. He won’t be a star, but I expect him to be a valuable depth piece on Toronto’s 2019-2020 roster, as they will need young players like Grundström to take on a regular role in the midst of a cap crunch.

Hardev, who saw him a lot during the Marlies’ playoff run and didn’t rank him as high as most of the other voters, had some observations:

So the gist of what I saw out of Grundstrom in the playoffs was that he always looked lost on the ice until he was tol to go to the net and wait for Andreas Johnsson and Miro Aaltonen to provide him a rebound. He has good tools, but I question whether he can be effective this season, especially without a star player. He’d be replacement level or worse in a top-9 role in the NHL right now, and it would be downright detrimental to his development if he played on the fourth line.

My tune isn’t that he’s bad, it’s that he hasn’t done enough to warrant graduating the AHL, especially since we don’t have any clear answer as to who he is at the AHL level.

I’m curious to see where he will play next season on the Marlies. If he’s truly going to be a grinder type, it would be ideal for the Marlies to play him with Gauthier and Greening. It would give Engvall (a more offense-first player) a chance to play top-six minutes, and Grundström a chance to really improve in the defensive and neutral zones. His play in the defensive zone leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s mostly a result of coaching and structure, not talent.

Katya, who saw Grundström play more than most when he was in Sweden:

Grundström’s season this year was interrupted by a not-terribly serious knee injury. It required a repair job via scope-surgery, and he was back slightly earlier than expected. But that and his late start gave him only 35 games, and while he increased his points over 2016-2017, he was still rocking a huge 20% shooting percentage, up from his team-leading 15% of the year before. Simply put, his goal stats are inflated.

Kevin’s scouting report is dead on. He scores off the rush from a good shot, and he takes out the garbage at the net.

He is not at all like Leo Komarov, who he gets compared to. He’s aggressive and annoying, with a relentless drive to always try to score or get into scoring position. Nikita Soshnikov with the strength to back it up.

What Roger Rönnberg, a coach who makes Mike Babcock seem laid back, describes in that quote above is Babcock’s dream player because at 20, Grundström already knows what “play right” means. It’s not about hitting or physicality, or defensive genius, it’s about 100% attention all the time, with one goal in mind. A goal for.

But that shooting percentage is not real. And he’s played at times with excellent linemates, and yet the assists never come. He’s not creating offence. Offence can happen around him, though.

His power play TOI increased year over year in the SHL, but he left there as a second unit man. He’s not Johnsson the second, who held down a key position on the team’s top unit prior to coming over. But he grew into a slightly larger role in Sweden last year, and his ice time expanded in the SHL playoffs quite a bit. He was trusted.

There have been players on the Marlies with better skills than Grundström who never made it. Kerby Rychel stands out as a player who half the time was great. But it never stopped being only half the time. Grundström doesn’t do just half the time.

He has so much to learn, including how to play 80 games in a season, but that’s the thing that drove my ranking of him. I think he has the tools, mental and physical, to grow his game on the Marlies and be something at the NHL level in due time. That puts him in a tier with the other players I think are very likely to make meaningful contributions to the Maple Leafs, but aren’t at the elite level of the top few.

The Poll

Is #13 the right ranking for Carl Grundström?

Too high25
Too low143
Juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust right!337