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Charting the Leafs: fourth quarter results are in

The season is done so it's time for one last chart post tracking the Leafs over the last few years and into this one. The last quarter is most of the post trade deadline period, so it's full of games played with youthful enthusiasm.

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

There are not a lot of surprises in the basic data:

The overall shot differential (CF%) is a touch lower but the share of high-danger chances (HSCF%) has rebounded a little from the third quarter dip. The only shock might be that with all that youth and enthusiasm and a lot fun games, the Leafs actually got worse at scoring goals. This is all five on five data, remember.

Digging into the shot numbers, and the picture is clearer.

The shots for (CF60) barely changed while the (CA60) rose up to about where it was in the second quarter, the price you pay for that youth.

However, most of those increased shots against seem to be medium and low danger, and the loss in shots for is also low danger. So the defensive system seems solid, even if the overall possession fluctuated with the revolving door on the bench.

The shot rate for and against went up from the very low event third quarter.

And the shooting percentage and save percentage changes were not large, but I was surprised to see the shooting percentage in this last quarter actually go down again. That still terrible save percentage disguises an excellent run by Bernier. His adjusted 5-on-5 save percentage over that period was .938.

Predictions

I was really wrong at the half, and really right at the quarter pole. How will I do for next year?

I think an uptick in goals for is inevitable, but so is some hard times on the shots against as new guys work into the system, and some old hands like William Nylander come back and have to do it for 82 games.

If Nazem Kadri has wingers worthy of him, we might see a lot more goals.

But will the Leafs make the playoffs next year? Ask their goalies. Whoever they end up being.

Glossary

ZSO% Offensive zone faceoffs as a percentage of total faceoffs not including those in the neutral zone
HSCF% High-danger Scoring Chances For as a percentage of total
SCF% Scoring Chances For as a percentage of total
CF% Shots For as a percentage of total
GF% Goals For as a percentage of total
HSCF60 High-danger Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes
HSCA60 High-danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes
SCF60 Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes
SCA60 Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes
CF60 Shots For per 60 minutes
CA60 Shots Against per 60 minutes

All data is from War on Ice, and is score adjusted 5-on-5.