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It is probably easier being the underdog: Maple Leafs’ first round odds

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There was so much less stress when it was only about taking at least one win from the Capitals.

Washington Capitals v Toronto Maple Leafs - Game Three Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images

MoneyPuck says the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 65 percent chance of winning their first round series against the Capitals. His full chart of probabilities and the big wheel of future round chances is where it always is if you want to dig deeper.

Dom is a little more conservative, with 56 to 44 as the split in chances.

He also makes this really interesting observation:

But this is my favourite chart:

He’s showing a lot of that decline in the Captials’ chances going to the Penguins, which makes sense. They are almost a lock to beat out Columbus, and they will play the winner of the Toronto - Washington series.

But this is all so nerve wracking. It’s tough to even lift your head for a moment and look at the second round. It’s tough to consider it.

Could it happen? Will Phil Kessel get a playoff series at the ACC again? How is that going to feel?

Ahhhhhh. I’m not sure I want to look that far ahead. Next game. Home ice against Washington. Rookies versus vets. MoneyPuck gives the Leafs a 46 percent chance to win that game.

What do you think? Forget the series, let’s just think about Wednesday’s game. Will the Leafs win?

Poll

Who will win game four?

This poll is closed

  • 20%
    Leafs in OT
    (183 votes)
  • 4%
    Caps in OT
    (40 votes)
  • 56%
    Leafs in regulation
    (501 votes)
  • 18%
    Caps in regulation
    (162 votes)
886 votes total Vote Now